Monday, August 18, 2025

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -.7% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Gold & Silver -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • METC, ARLP, OS, ARCT, AR, QFIN, USAR, NNE and TNXP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MDT 2) IBB 3) IQ 4) WULF 5) FSLR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NNE 2) EMPD 3) LZGI 4) RSKD 5) REPL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLF 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) LABU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +4.6% 2) Electrification +3.5% 3) Oil Service +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DAY, ZEPP, AAOI, KYIV, APLD, DUOL, NMAX, IBTA, CCOI, NXT, FSLR, RIOT, BTDR, RUN, CYD, SERV, DNA, OSCR, TTD, NEGG, CHA, SBET, HSAI, IREN, AMN, SYNA, SONO, CELH, ENPH, SEDG, RCL, WIX, ZK, LQDA, JBS, NVO, LULU, VEON, VKTX, NOVT, TBPH, TEM, SUPV, RIGL, UNH, MUX, UNH, PENG and PGY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVE 2) SWK 3) JBS 4) OS 5) PRMW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DAY 2) PPCB 3) VTAK 4) FSLR 5) RUN
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SILJ 2) XBI 3) VGT 4) XOP 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AS)/.02
  • (HD)/4.72
  • (MDT)/1.23 
  • (VIK)/.99 
After the Close: 
  • (JKHY)/1.58
  • (KEYS)/1.67
  • (LZB)/.53
  • (SQM)/.51
  • (TOL)/3.60
  • (ZTO)/2.86 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1296K versus 1321K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to fall to 1385K versus 1393K in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly crude oil stock report, America Taiwan Tech Forum, (MCHP) annual meeting and the Needham Virtual Semi/Semi-Cap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -21.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.3 +2.0
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 42.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +6.2% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$40.8M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 54.0% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +1.1
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.4% -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 250.9 +.24%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.2 +.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.2 -39.3%
  • Vix 15.2 +.5%
  • Total Put/Call .81 +9.5

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge  
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript
  • Bloom Energy CEO had a humorous but revealing take on why some customers still choose legacy solutions like gas turbines instead of Bloom’s fuel cells: "I completely agree with you, but nobody gets fired for buying IBM." $BE.
  • @GatewayPundit
  • @FoxNews  
  • @MarioNawful
  • IVY LEAGUE = ONE-PARTY STATE. Harvard isn’t a campus anymore. It’s a monoculture in tweed. 99% Democrat. Princeton? 98. Yale, Berkeley? 97. Even “balanced” UCLA is 89. That’s not a lean. That’s ideological foreclosure. Republicans aren’t underrepresented - they’re an endangered species. The actual diversity crisis isn’t race or gender. It’s thought. These schools are incubators of America’s ruling class: presidents, justices, CEOs, the people writing tomorrow’s laws and algorithms. If every seminar room is an echo chamber, what happens when the echo becomes law? Academic freedom thrives on friction. Without it, the Ivy League stops being a university system and starts being a ministry of truth. The real question: who dares break the spell?
  • ISRAELI CYBER OFFICIAL BUSTED IN U.S. PEDOPHILIA STING. Las Vegas police arrested 8 men in a major operation targeting online child predators, including Israeli cyber directorate employee Tom Artiom Alexandrovich. He worked on Israel’s national cyber defense and even helped design the “Cyber Dome,” but now he’s on forced leave after returning home. Cops say the suspects tried luring minors online for sex. FBI and Vegas PD warn parents to keep a close eye on kids’ online activity. 
  • 4,000+ U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED TO LATIN AMERICA IN MASSIVE ANTI-CARTEL MISSION. The U.S. military is flooding the waters around Latin America and the Caribbean with over 4,000 Marines and sailors as part of Trump’s counter-cartel push. a deployment so large it includes warships, a nuclear-powered sub, spy planes, and an entire Marine Expeditionary Unit. (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @paulsperry_
  • @Nichulscher
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @IAnonPatriot
  • @RodDMartin 
  • @FBIDirectorKash
  • @Nicksortor
  • @dom_lucre
  • @RepLuna
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @FightWithMemes
  • @EYakoby
  • @gc22gc
  • @RogerJStoneJr
  • @C_3C_3
  • @ImMeme0
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 -.13% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.62 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.9 -.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.29%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, August 15, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,460.2 +1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,967.6 +2.0%
  • NASDAQ 21,613.3 +.9%
  • Russell 2000 2,289.4 +3.2%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,459.4 +.8%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 224.3 +3.9%
  • Wilshire 5000 63,743.7 +1.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,519.1 +.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,953.4 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.4 -.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 249.6 +1.9%
  • NYSE Technology 6,423.4 +.1%
  • Transports 15,700.2 +2.5%
  • Utilities 1,107.4 -.8%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 145.8 +3.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 50.1 +1.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 232.8 +1.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.8 +.7%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 570,464 +.67%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 +62.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 528 +89
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.0 +3.6%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,829 -9.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,036,424 +.4%
  • Total Put/Call .72 -12.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 2.2 +123.9%
  • ISE Sentiment 179.0 +34.0
  • NYSE Arms .67 -52.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 81.7 +6.2%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 +13.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.44 +4.0 basis points 
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -1.7%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .61 -2.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 15.3 -4.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.9 -4.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.1 -.8%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 56,866.6 +148.8%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  85.7 -10.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.186 Trillion +.5%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.771 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 29.9 -14.3%
  • AAII % Bears 46.2 +6.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) +5.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 295.09 +.42%
  • Crude Oil 62.73/bbl. -.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 207.0 +.6%
  • Natural Gas 2.91 -1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  • Heating Oil 222.3 -.9% 
  • Newcastle Coal 109.8 (1,000/metric ton) unch.
  • Gold 3,337.0 -1.8%
  • Silver 37.99 -1.0%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 463.3 +.14%
  • Copper 449.4 +.2%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,800.0 USD/metric tonne +7.1%
  • CME Lumber  611.5 -6.5%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,395.9 +2.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.9 -.2 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -3.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 218.9 +17.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.3 -17.6%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $205.0 Billion($1,273.29 Savings Per Taxpayer) +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.3% +n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 287.58 +n/a:  Growth Rate +12.6% +n/a percentage point, P/E 22.5 +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 469.52 +n/a: Growth Rate +24.5% +n/a percentage points, P/E 32.9 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +1.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.2 -6.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.5 -12.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 86.6%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 13.4%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 9/17
  • US Dollar Index 97.84 -.41%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,840.1 +.13%
  • Bitcoin/USD 117,449.4 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.4 +.27%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 -.26%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 57.0 +5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.32% +4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.596 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.986 Billion -10.0%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.8 -3.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 206.8 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 80.0 +1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.0 -5.7%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.9 -4.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.5 -3.7%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 76.7 +2.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.3 -2.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.33 +.45%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 123.0 +.29%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% -10.0 basis points
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.6% +30.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% +4.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.84% +12.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -2.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -11.0 basis points -2.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.5 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.8 -2.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 202.0 +2.4
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 221.0 +18.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.8 -3.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 117.0 -3.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 145.7 -3.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .52 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,394.0B -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 221,750 +.34%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.1 -1.0%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.69% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 281,100 +10.9%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.4% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $180.9M -32.2%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,039.0 -.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,349.7/40 ft Box -3.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,193.3 -.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +8.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 61.6 -7.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 283,867 +1.5%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,832,747 +15.1% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 49.0% +1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +3.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Airlines +10.7%
  • Healthcare Providers +8.4%
  • Alt Energy +6.9%
  • Pharma +6.0%
  • Electrification +4.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Utilities -.8%
  • Shipping -.8%
  • Networking -1.5%
  • Education -1.6%
  • Nuclear -2.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (48)
  • RUN, SEDG, UNH, CSIQ, SDM, ENPH, DQ, NXT, MBX, FSLR, JKS, BHVN, NU, LYFT, ICUI, ARWR, KOD, ZETA, AAOI, INTC, SNDX, HSAI, TWLO, CNC, ELV, OSCR, SPOT, MIRM, WING, OPRA, FROG, CRM, PDD, SSRM, MELI, TREE, TATT, BE, APLS, CLBT, IREN, FTNT and FOUR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)
  • FLO, XYF, CSCO, QFIN, GLXY, RBLX, LRCX, KLAC, SLNO, WLDN, SLM and AMAT
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change