Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +2.5% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Retail +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MDB, KSS, SERV, SATS, GOOS, NCNO, AHL, SLDE, DOMO, DCI, AEO, PLAB, CBRL, VSAT, ALB, NN, ESTC, RY, CRWV, PTGX, PI, FROG, NEXT, CVI, REXR, CVI, SIG, JOYY, VTLE, MTSR, INTA, CDNA, WFRD, VSCO, CFLT, CSTL, WYNN, TRMD, PHR, SNOW, PSTG, ELAN, NTNX, BOX, SSYS, SBH, VEEV, MNDY, 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WBA 2) VSAT 3) XP 4) PSTG 5) SERV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KSS 2) MDB 3) GOOS 4) VIR 5) ELMD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLF 3) XLV 4) IGV 5) NLR

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BBWI)/.38
• (BBY)/1.21
• (BF/B)/.36
• (BURL)/1.28
• (CM)/1.45
• (DKS)/4.29
• (DG)/1.58
• (GCO)/-1.25
• (HRL)/.40
• (OLLI)/.93
• (TD)/1.49
• (VSCO)/.13 

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/.12
• (AMBA)/.05
• (ADSK)/2.45
• (DELL)/2.29
• (GAP)/.55
• (MRVL)/.67
• (WOOF)/.01
• (ULTA)/5.10 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• 2Q GDP revisions.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 230K versus 235K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1966K versus 1972K prior.   

10:00 am EST

• Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.8% decline in June.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Aug. is estimated to fall to 0.0 versus 1.0 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, (DOCS) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Xi Jinping has unleashed China’s biggest purge of military leaders since Mao Zedong. It raises the question: Is this a sign of political strength, or of his weakness?
• Donald Trump warned of “an economic war” if he cannot get Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy to end their conflict, saying he had “very serious” consequences in mind. 
• The US will slap a crushing 50% tariff on some Indian goods starting Wednesday — the highest in Asia — as President Donald Trump presses ahead with the levies to punish New Delhi for buying Russian oil. 
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sparked a minor rally in shares of defense contractors with his suggestion that the US might take ownership stakes in some of them, despite warnings the idea poses serious conflict-of-interest concerns.
• The Senate Banking Committee is preparing to hold a hearing next week on the nomination of White House economic adviser Stephen Miran to serve as a Federal Reserve governor, as Donald Trump accelerates his push to reshape the central bank.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• So... she may or may not be a moron but she should be entrusted with setting the price of the world's reserve currency. 
   
• And then the Trump stacked Fed will launch YCC and push them even lower. See how that works?
   
• Are you going to end your racist DEI policies? Or is it just lip service?
• Watch Live: SpaceX Attempts Third Launch Of Starship Megarocket.
• Cracker Barrel Nukes Woke Logo, Brings Back "Old Timer" In MAGA Cultural War Victory.
• US Proposes Adding Copper, Potash, 4 Others To Critical Minerals List.
• In The Age Of Lies, Truth Is Extreme.
• Attention Parents: RFK Jr. Links Autism to "Certain Interventions," Says Big Announcement Next Month.
• YouTube Using AI To Secretly Alter Creators' Videos Without Their Knowledge.
• Ron Paul: President Trump Should Return To An 'America First' Foreign Policy
  .
• Scottish Girl Arrested For Using Knife And Axe To Ward Off Migrant Stalker.
• Stephen Miller: 'Massive Scandal' Brewing In D.C. Involving 'Doctored' Crime Statistics, Murders Counted As 'Accidents'. 
• Bonds & Bullion Bid Amid Cook-Chaos; Stocks Steady As NVDA Looms.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher following Wall Street gains overnight.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: MongoDB, Okta, PVH and more.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.

• @TheTranscript 

• Okta CEO: "Our solid Q2 results are highlighted by continued strength in new product adoption, the public sector, Auth0, and cash flow." $OKTA: +8% AH.
• PVH CEO: "We continue to expect 2025 to mark our return to growth, and we are raising our reported revenue guidance and reaffirming our non-GAAP earnings outlook for the full year," $PVH: +5% AH. 
• MongoDB CEO: "...strong Q2 results across the board, highlighted by Atlas revenue growth accelerating to 29% and adding over 5,000 customers YTD, the highest ever in H1" $MDB: +27% AH.

• @LauraLoomer 

• Paging @StephenM. Nobody, I repeat nobody, wants 600,000 more Chinese “students” aka Communist spies in the United States.

• @WallStreetApes

• Cracker Barrel employee CONFIRMS their business is way down because of their woke CEO destroying their heritage. She says normally employees have at least 9 tables each, they are down to JUST 2, “So, as y'all can see, I work at Cracker Barrel as a waitress, and we're struggling” “Everybody has had, like, two or three tables max. I say at least, like, nine tables their whole shift — Cracker Barrel. What are we doing? What? Something's got to give. Y'all people got families to feed.” (video)
• This is what it’s like to walk on the iconic Hollywood Walk of Fame and through Hollywood California. What Gavin Newsom has done to California is literally criminal. (video)
• American bought 2 avocados. One from Costco, and one from an organic produce store that costs $4 per avocado. The difference is shocking. The organic one likely reminds most people of what avocados used to look like when they had them growing up as a kid, the other is rubbery, solid like, and she says it doesn’t even taste like an avocado. (video)
• Cracker Barrel employees no longer care about their jobs after their woke CEO destroyed the heritage. Employees are exposing how their food is cooked, meatloaf is pre-packed and “We throw it in the microwave and then we serve it to you, and sometimes it’s still cold”. (video)

• @sovereignbrah

• Lutnick’s proposal: - give 600,000 Chinese students spots at all the top universities - push Americans to the back of the list - make Americans take spots at the bottom 15% of schools instead, so they don’t go out of business. This is, quite literally, “Americans Last.” You couldn’t screw the American people harder if you tried.

• @Kylenabecker

• BREAKING: Supreme Court Issues a Direct Warning to 'Rogue Judges'. "The message from the Supreme Court’s majority is unmistakable: lower courts are not free to reinterpret or resist its rulings." 

• @Peoples_Pundit

• NOW - Trump says he'll allow 600,000 Chinese students into the U.S. This is a terrible decision as both a matter of politics and public policy. (video)

• @Loganclarkhall

• Ingraham: "How is allowing 600K students from China putting America First? Those are 600K spots that American kids won't get." Commerce Sec. Lutnick: "If you didn't have those 600K students, the bottom 15% of colleges would go out of business." We don’t need to keep importing foreigners that hate us to keep around universities that teach students to hate us, actually. (video)

• @RepMTG

• We should not let in 600,000 CHINESE students to attend American colleges and universities that may be loyal to the CCP. If refusing to allow these Chinese students to attend our schools causes 15% of them to fail then these schools should fail anyways because they are being propped up by the CCP. Why are we allowing 600,000 students from China to replace our American student’s opportunities? We should never allow that. And we need more trade school graduates. Trade schools are a GREAT alternative and produce the essential education and training for the most needed jobs in America with very high starting pay.

• @Libsoftiktok

• DID YOU KNOW??? Chinese nationals are required by law in China to gather and provide intelligence to the CCP when coming to the United States on a student visa. We currently have an organized CCP spy ring across our country. (video)

• @Liz_Wheeler

• Chinese “students” are all spies for the Chinese Communist Party. They’re forced to be. They steal our intellectual property. They steal our tech. They steal our intel. They cozy up to our military. 

• @RightAngleNews

• BREAKING - Tulsi Gabbard confirms files hidden by Biden’s intelligence agencies detailing 2020 election fraud were found in “burn bags” at random offices, showing deliberate attempts to conceal the truth from the American people. (video)

• @nicksortor

• BREAKING: RFK Jr. says HHS believes they have FOUND "interventions" which caused a MASSIVE spike in autism in children -- will announce in September. TRUMP: "There HAS to be something artificially causing this. Meaning a drug or something...I think we maybe know the reason..." In 1970, 0.7 children in 10,000 were found to have autism. "Now, it's 1 in 12.5 boys," Kennedy said. (video)

• @newstart_2024

• Jeff Bezos is funding the rollout of lab-grown salmon in US restaurants. The FDA approved it as "safe" based on data PROVIDED BY THE COMPANIES. No independent long-term studies. No public understanding of the health impacts. Why is this experimental product being served to Americans first while the rest of the world watches? (video)

• @LaraLogan

• We do NOT want “bioengineered food ingredients”. The American people are not lab rats. So how do we make this stop? RFK Jr? (video)

• @EndWokeness

• For perspective, just 469 Americans are let in to China as students.

• @braxton_mccoy

• ‘600,000 American kids will be missing out on STEM and other educational opportunities because our relationship with an adversary is more important than they are.’

• @realchasegeiser

• Did Lutnick really just argue that Trump is letting 600,000 Chinese students into America so Americans will go to worse schools and keep them from closing? Lutnick is not to be trusted. Clearly. (video)

• @TonySeruga

• The foreigners buying the burned-out lots at La Costa Beach in Malibu are New Zealand's Mowbray brothers, founders of Hong Kong-based global toy giant Zuru which has direct ties to the CCP. Here are the incorporation docs for three of their shell corporations, which they used to purchase the lots - some of which were not on the market. (pic)
• By 2035, 87% of Americans will not have a pension. But Ukrainians will and do today. And YOU are paying for them. FYI—no matter how much legacy media denies, Zelensky is set to flee Ukraine to live in Dubai. Zelensky purchased a $17 million dollar luxury apartment in Dubai. He also owns a villa in Florida but chose Dubai out of fear a President Trump DOJ would prosecute him.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.49 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 81.6 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 -.07%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.18% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.1 +7.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 30.4 -.9 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(474 of 500 reporting) +11.0% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.99 +.17:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +23.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 472.61 +.27: Growth Rate +26.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .66 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 +27.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch.
• US Yield Curve 57.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +1.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.89% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 -2.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 48.4%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorsts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.9% 2) Energy -.8% 3) Electric Vehicles -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STZ, PDD, HMY, VTLE, KDP, BWLP, SLDE, PSIX, EH and KYIV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SATS 2) FL 3) EH 4) OPAD 5) KDP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STZ 2)  ECX 3) EH 4) SCVL 5) WOOF

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XLY 4) XLI 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Nuclear +3.3% 2) Gold & Silver +1.8% 3) Networking +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SATS, DOMO, SMTC, GCO, UUUU, LEU, HSAI, NSSC, HUT, HEI, VSAT, DJT, AAOI, SPT, TLN, FN, ADUR, XPEV, EAT, BNS, CBRL, ATAT, OPFI, SSRM, LLY, BMO, TSEM, DRD, CP, HBNC, APP, NMAX, ARGX, EWTX, RKLB, OPRA, PEB and MUX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GOOS 2) SATS 3) UP 4) KDP 5) TSEM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMTC 2) IVVD 3) SATS 4) NSSC 5) HEI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) VOX 3) SOXX 4) VCR 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume