Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -1.6% 2) Electric Vehicles -1.3% 3) Nuclear -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WING, MUX, UTHR, SNOW, PI, CBRL, SHC, AI, BABA, TXN, TECK, DUOL, NN, SPRY, SRRK, CRM, CRMD, NI, RIVN, CAL, DLO, HMY, LCID, SAIC, GH, GTLB, SMR, SNY, DOLE, AGIO, AAMI, FIG and DAVA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NEON 2) PPTA 3) K 4) HL 5) LCID

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FIG 2) CRMT 3) CRM 4) FLWS 5) RXST

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) PSI 3) SMH 4) PEJ 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

 

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.7% 2) Oil Service +2.7% 3) Homebuilding +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AEO, CIEN, NEGG, SCVL, NKTR, SNDK, INOD, TECX, CRDO, VSCO, TDUP, HIMS, VSTM, JACK, NVRI, DSGX, AFRM, EXAS, TROW, FN, FND, SKWD, URBN, BBWI, ALAB, GAP, COHR, BZH, MLYS, PD, WDC, YPF, MESO, AGX, DKS, OLN, SLDE, OLN, KELYA, GGAL, FTI, AMZN, JOYY, SVV, HPE, GPC, GLBE, CRC, GLBE, TGS, TOL, VITL, RKT, PAHC and REVG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SEAT 2) CIEN 3) NOK 4) UTHR 5) FOUR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) CIEN 3) BRIA 4) CRDO 5) TROW

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) ARKK 3) XLV 4) XLC 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.95

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for August is estimated to rise to 75K versus 73K in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• The Unemployment Rate for Aug. is estimated to rise to 4.3% versus 4.2% in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• (DGNX) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the HC Wainwright Investment Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Japan’s 30-year government bond auction faces added uncertainty from global debt market turmoil and political instability at home which has reignited concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook.
• Bridgewater's hedge funds have become so popular among China's rich that lenders are reserving them for their top clients. Some describe it as the "Hermes of private funds" in the country.
• Meta, Google, TikTok and other digital platforms have been told by Australia’s online safety regulator to prepare now for the country’s social-media ban for under-16s — three months out from when the law comes into force.
• Nasdaq is revamping rules that companies pursuing small IPOs must follow to list and continue to be traded on its exchanges, the latest effort to protect investors from wild swings in the market and improve liquidity.
• Bearish bets are proliferating in US Treasuries and raising the stakes around Friday’s jobs report. 
• Republicans are planning to upend Senate rules to confirm Donald Trump’s stalled nominees in one vote, speeding up the president’s ability to fill top posts.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge  

• Trump To Appeal After 'Obama-Appointed' Judge Reverses Trump Admin's Harvard Funding Freeze.
• "We Know The Names": After Another [REDACTED] Epstein Release, Victims Vow To Produce Their Own List.
• Putin, Xi Hot Mic Moment On Organ Transplants Underscores Concerns Over Organ Harvesting In China.
• Trump Bluntly Explains The US Bombed Iran For Israel.
• New Apple TV Show Glorifies Liberal Woman Profiling "Right Wingers" For The FBI.
• Pentagon's Bloated, Opaque And Undisciplined Budget Undermines US National Security.
• Florida To End All Vaccine Mandates. 
• Complete Hedge Fund Positioning, Performance And Flows Update. 
• Billionaire Airbnb Co-Founder Reveals Why He Abandoned Democrat Party For Trump.
• Gold RSI at 77 - GLD saw its largest single-day inflow since March, with an increase of $1.5 billion...   
• Jolted: Bonds, Gold, & Crypto Soar After Labor Market Meltdown.

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to mostly climb following tech rally on Wall Street.
• Stock futures are little changed after Alphabet rally boosts S&P 500, Nasdaq: Live updates.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: American Eagle, Salesforce, C3.ai, Gitlab and more.
• Ban on congressional stock ownership gains momentum with new bill

• @TheTranscript 

• American Eagle Outfitters CEO: "Sweeney Signature jeans sold out within a week and some products within 1 day. Demand for her curated online shop of FDIC has been very strong...We are off to a start beyond our wildest dreams."
• American Eagle Outfitters CEO: "Fueled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement & comparable sales" $AEO: +23% AH. 
• C3 AI double miss + appoints Stephen Ehikian as new CEO. Exiting CEO & Founder Tom Siebel: "The good news is we have completely restructured the sales and services organization....The bad news is that financial performance in Q1 was completely unacceptable." $AI: -10% AH. 
• Salesforce CEO @Benioff: "We delivered an outstanding quarter to close out H1 FY 25, with strong performance across revenue, margin, cash flow & cRPO—and we remain on track for FY 26 to be a record year with nearly $15B in operating cash flow," $CRM: -4% AH. 

• @MarioNawful

• FLORIDA ENDS ALL VACCINE MANDATES. The state just scrapped every single vaccine requirement, not just COVID, in a sweeping move announced by Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo. The room broke into applause as he condemned mandates as rooted in control, not science. He called them “wrong” and compared them to slavery, saying no one has the right to dictate what goes into your body or your child’s. Florida is now the first state to eliminate all vaccine mandates statewide. (video)

• @nicksortor

• WOW! NBC News just asked an entire panel of Epstein victims if they ever “saw or heard Donald Trump doing anything inappropriate in relation to Epstein”. VICTIMS: “No… no.” The Democrat narrative is TOTAL BS. (video)

• @JohnBasham

• BREAKING: After Meeting With Sexual Assault Victims Of Epstein, Congresswoman Anna Paulina Lina (@RepLuna) Says, "THERE ARE A LOT OF WEALTHY, BAD PEOPLE" & It's "SCARY" What The Victims Told Her. (video)

• @pulte

• Fed Gov. Lisa Cook’s Ann Arbor Pad Is a Rental, Too. The recently fired financial sophisticate has been playing by different rules than the rest of us.
• NEW: VIDEO PROOF. We have just received video proof that Lisa Cook’s declared “PRIMARY RESIDENCE” is being RENTED out to tenants. Cook RECENTLY CLAIMED to the U.S. Government that it was her PERSONAL RESIDENCE, but she’s renting it out? (video)

• @Defence_Index

• BREAKING: China showcases the LY-1, a massive directed-energy laser system (DEW). Displayed during the military parade, it highlights advances in cutting-edge defense tech. (pic)

• @cjbakermd

• No decent human being can possibly defend this deliberate, wanton destruction of our planet. The pilots are lost souls. The people behind it are devils. It is evil, plain & simple. STOP GEOENGNEERING NOW. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• BREAKING NEWS: ICE Has Busted a Massive Illegal Alien Pedophile Network in California. ICE officials have informed me that 10 criminal aliens, all convicted sex offenders and pedophiles, were arrested today in California’s Central Valley. Gavin Newsom was giving these monsters a sanctuary, putting American children at risk. The Trump Administration is cracking down.

• @Inevitablewest

• BREAKING: Number of dead AfD candidates in NRW has risen to Seven ahead of the local elections.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.44 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.2 +.05%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.21% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.15%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.11%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .40 -54.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 78.6 -1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.0 -.01%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.10 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.1 +2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 141.0 +1.0

• Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +108.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$220.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.3 +.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.1 -.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 200.0 -11.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -2.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 132.6 -.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 87.0 -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.2 -.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 73.4 -.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.31 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.0 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -24.5 basis points -4.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.5 +.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 580.0 -3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.43 +.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.21% -5.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.12% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.8 -5.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(491 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.03 +.08:  Growth Rate +10.8% unch., P/E 22.2 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.37 +.10: Growth Rate +16.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .53 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -71.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.1
• US Yield Curve 59.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% -2.6 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0% (+5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 46.3%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.2% 2) Oil Service -1.7% 3) Medical Equipment -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MRVL, PD, BUR, MAGN, TOST, UTHR, SFD, GPK, RVTY, ISRG, KEX, DLTR, BRKR and NEGG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LCID 2) ZS 3) CVE 4) M 5) OWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ERAS 2) XNCR 3) ANRO 4) SLQT 5) PSX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) EUAD 2) XRT 3) FDN 4) XLU 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume