Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Electrification/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.2 +.7%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .37 -5.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 79.8 -.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.46%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 194.93 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.02 -.57%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.5 +1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 -44.0

• Total Put/Call .90 +13.9%

• NYSE Arms .70 -59.3%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$247.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.0 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.7 +.34%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 198.0 +5.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 -.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 124.6 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 82.0 -1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.4 +.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.8 -.01%%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 76.7 +4.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.43 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.25 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -36.75 basis points +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 128.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 586.0 +3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 49.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.14%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.07% +3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.02% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.3 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 291.67 +1.42:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 484.41 +.58: Growth Rate +18.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.0 -.2
• US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.0% +.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 +4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 72.6% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 65.5%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -114 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders -3.1% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Airlines -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BBW, WING, PHM, OXLC, NX, BV, PPTA, SPHR, FERG, FIVE, FCX, FOXA, ORLA, FWRG, PBI, RIGL, SOC, HRMY, RAPP, LIF, ASTS, IRDM, SAIL, IOT, WMS, ALB and CNM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COMP 2) WOLF 3) ALGM 4) TECK 5) WPM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PACS 2) SOC 3) MOMO 4) AIRO 5) DHR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) GDX 3) IBB 4) XLC 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +2.2% 2) Energy +1.5% 3) Nuclear +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QMMM, TRML, NBIS, EPSM, TECK, KC, WYFI, BHF, DNTH, ADUR, UUUU, PSIX, HUT, BBBY, RIOT, AVXL, IREN, LEU, UNH, CRMD, BILI, WIX, SFDV, CNTA, IDYA, PBF, BBNX, SMCI, CRNX, INOD, YPF, MTSR, AMRC, GSAT, WB, CRWV, GDOT, GLXY, CORZ, SGHC, CVI, TEAM, TECX, PAM, CLB, PTGX, IONS, APH, VIST, ROIV, PLTR, STNE, BEKE, ERO, MLYS, NCLH, AAMI, EDU, TGS, TGS, AVO, VST, TMDX, ALHC, BABA and ZK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BIOX 2) FCEL 3) WOLF 4) ROIV 5) TECK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WOLF 2) NBIS 3) TRML 4) VERI 5) DNTH

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) SOXX 3) XLU 4) XBI 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHWY)/.14

After the Close: 

• (OXM)/1.18

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in July. 
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in July. 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,097,750 barrels versus a +2,415,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +61,250 barrels versus a -3,795,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -47.000 barrels versus a +1,681,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.7% versus a -.3% decline prior. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 10Y T-Note auction, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Sept., weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Goldman Communacopia/Tech Conference, (NTAP) annual meeting and the Barclays Financial Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s plan to step down has investors scrambling to assess the implications for the nation’s stocks, government bonds and currency. 
• Anglo American is nearing a deal to acquire Canadian miner Teck Resources, sources said.
• There's still a better-than-even chance of avoiding a US government shutdown next month, partly because neither party would benefit
  .
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge   

• Remember, huge negative payrolls revision tomorrow, as much as 1 million benchmarked lower. One year ago it got Powell to do a jumbo cut (it actually was the November election, but they needed a pretext).
• AI Has Come To Reshape Education.
• Border Czar Says ICE Will Target More Businesses After Enforcement Operation At Hyundai.
• Watch: Palmer Luckey Pilots eVTOL Like A Real-Life 'Star Wars' Landspeeder.
• Consumer Credit Trounces Estimates On Unexpected Surge In Credit Card Usage.
• Supreme Court Lifts Restrictions On Immigration Stops In Southern California. 
• Musk: "Interesting Idea" On Buying Media Outlets To Force Truth Narratives Amid MSM Refugee Stabbing Blackout
  .
• *NEWS CORP REPORTS RESOLUTION OF MURDOCH FAMILY TRUST MATTER. *NEWS CORP: NEW TRUSTS FOR BENEFIT OF LACHLAN, GRACE, CHLOE. *NEWS CORP: PRUDENCE, ELISABETH, JAMES TO CEASE AS BENEFICIARIES
  . 
• Gold Surges To New Record High As Bonds & Stocks Follow Diverging Narratives
  . 

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to trade mostly higher, tracking gains on Wall Street.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq hits new record: Live updates.
• Nebius' stock soars 60% on multibillion-dollar AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Fox, Dell, Mission Produce and more. 
• Nvidia's Huang joining Trump on UK state visit next week. 

• @LauraLoomer 

• Media in meltdown mode over Deep State Trump haters getting Loomered. They depend on these Deep State traitors in our intel agencies to leak & fabricate fake intel about Trump so they can funnel narratives to the Fake News media. I’m destroying their business model. MAGA! (video)

• @newstart_2024 

• In a stunning revelation from the Pfizer documents, Naomi Wolf exposes that the most shocking finding isn't the known side effects, but the vaccine's obsessive, 360-degree focus on damaging human reproduction—not the respiratory system. She details how the lipid nanoparticles are designed to cross every membrane, including the placenta. This leads to calcifications, preventing babies from getting nutrients and oxygen. The result? Midwives report placentas are falling apart, leading to premature births, horrific maternal hemorrhaging, and a 40% spike in maternal mortality in the West. Pfizer knew the nanoparticles would invade the testes of baby boys in utero, degrading the Leydig cells responsible for masculinity and fertility. They may never develop normally, even if never vaccinated themselves. (video)

• @unusual_whales

• Scott Bessent says there will be an AI economic boom "as soon as the first quarter of next year." (video)

• @Artemisfornow

• BREAKING - The French government collapses. And now they are now demanding impeachment or resignation of Macron. The entire country will be brought to a standstill in 2 days time as the people take to the streets to demand change. We hear you France.

• @TheOnlyDSC

• Which of these two immigrants got wall-to-wall sympathetic news coverage from the media? (pic)

• @ElonMusk

• So let me get this straight… A bartender can go to prison for serving drinks to a drunk person if they drive and murder someone— …but judges aren’t accountable after letting a 14 TIME REPEAT OFFENDER murder a young woman? Let’s change the law. Between now and then, name and shame the DAs and judges who enable murder, rape and robbery. But especially shame those who funded the campaigns of the DAs and judges. That will make the biggest difference.

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY CRAP: It's been exposed that this man r*ped a young 4 YEAR OLD, gave her an STD - and yet was released from jail several weeks ago. He had a violent criminal history. THIS IS A MASSIVE ISSUE. "We have arrested him 6 times..." (video)
• MASSIVE NEWS: Congressman Randy Fine (R-FL) is filing legislation to TARGET any judge who releases violent criminals who go on to commit more crime - after the murder of Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte. "Those 12+ judges that released Decarlos Brown Jr. should have their day in court too." LONG OVERDUE. "It’s easy to release criminals when you’re protected by an armed bailiff at all times. The rest of us aren’t so lucky." This should pass with FLYING COLORS. But we all know how Democrats will vote. 
• BREAKING: Secretary RFK Jr. reveals that he fired the CDC vaccine chief because for 7 MONTHS Kennedy was BLOCKED from getting vaccine safety data. This person also STONEWALLED money going to Texas to help with measles...he was a full-on TRAITOR, holy crap! "I gave the order, I'm running this agency, how come nothing's happening?" "And then we tried to get the vaccine safety data language - the data that supposedly the CDC tries to use to make good decisions on whether vaccines are hurting people and whether there are side effects. For 7 MONTHS, he stonewalled us so that we could not get that data!" (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Trump just dropped a red-pill nuclear bomb on Truth Social. He posted a video showing NIH Geneticist and Biochemist outlining that vaccines have toxic chemicals like Mercury in them, and can cause autism. Trump just called vaccines “poison”… MUST WATCH! (video)

• @nicksortor

• INFURIATING: An illegal in Maryland MURDERED a Maryland teen and threw her body off a bridge. THIS is who Democrats like Sen. Chris Van Hollen are trying to protect. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Wait what. Stephanie Miller, the DEI boss of the entire military, was also recruiting 10,000 illegal aliens a year under Biden?! How is that not a threat to our national security?!

• @mRNAdeaths

• The Covid years was a carefully planned reign of terror. A coordinated psychological operation that primarily influenced the behavior of individuals on a global level.

• @KurtSchlichter

• This is huge. This woman is doing everything she can to under @realDonaldTrump and @PeteHegseth by promoting and protecting woke generals and admirals. This is an open secret in Washington DC. Everybody knows it, except the guys at the top. I don’t understand why she’s still in a position of authority when she is doing everything she can to undermine the President and the Secretary of War. (pic)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• OUTRAGE IN GEORGIA: Daycare Worker Accused of Beating 1-Year-Old Released on Bond by Chief Magistrate Ann Marie Rose-Emmons! Yvette Thurston, charged with brutally attacking little Clay Weeks on his FIRST DAY at daycare, is FREE after a $44,000 bond. WHY ARE VIOLENT MONSTERS BEING LET OUT OF JAIL? (pic)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.75 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.99 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch..
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 80.0 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.05% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 +.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .32 -76.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 79.7 -1.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +.47%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.79 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.03 -.42%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.4 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 167.0 +23.0

• Total Put/Call .79 +9.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.37 +1.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$51.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 +.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 361.4 -4.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 193.0 -7.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.0 -1.4%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 126.0 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 83.0 -4.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.08 -.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 145.6 +1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 73.7 +.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 +.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.75 basis points -.75 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -38.25 basis points +1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 125.0 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 583.0 +3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 49.0 -2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.49 +.08%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.02% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 +1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.8 -2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.8 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 290.25 +1.28:  Growth Rate +11.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.83 +7.03: Growth Rate +18.3% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 32.9 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.2 -.3
• US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.1% -.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 73.9% (+2.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 67.9%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long