Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +6.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .26 +15.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 83.2 -.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.25%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.73 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.75 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 202.0 +39.0

• Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%

• NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$113.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.0 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.0 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 -11.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.8%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 118.5 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 -3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.9 +.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.4 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 75.6 -.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.57 +.24%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points +.25 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.25 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.55 +.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 588.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 +.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.04% -3.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.99% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.7 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.3 -5.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.44 +.52:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.22 +1.13: Growth Rate +18.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 33.3 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 unch.
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% -1.0 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 +3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 74.8% (-5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 68.2%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -68 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -.3% 2) Shipping unch. 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PR, TXN, MAZE, IDR, NEGG, PHR, OCSL, GBDC, MENS, ARCC, CTVA, LRN and FVRR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) NAKA 2) BITF 3) GRAB 4) AR 5) SBSW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HAIN 2) ATYR 3) LRN 4) RELY 5) CTVA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) KRE 3) XRT 4) SOXX 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +4.1% 2) Nuclear +3.2% 3) Computer Hardware +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RMBS, OKLO, ORLA, CSIQ, PONY, SKYT, LMND, UPBD, SITM, HROW, SA, STX, AAOI, NNE, LI, VSAT, JKS, CVLT, CRC, TNK, ALB, KRYS, RVLV, JACK, CRWV, BILI, ZIM, DQ, REAL, OTEX, ASML, GTM, AI, SEI, PACS, ASC, SEI, SKE, SNDK, GILT, CHWY, NSSC, FIVE, PGY, AFRM, PSTG, TSLA, PSTG, CIEN, STNG, WBTN, INOD, LASR, OPRA, WDC, PLAY, HL, DLO, SPT, STM, LINC, NX, FRO, DRD, TLK, SCCO, VECO, DHT, BRKR, GOOG, CPNG, GSAT, KVYO and SVV

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NAKA 2) REI 3) FSLY 4) OPI 5) LAZR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GLUE 2) ATLC 3) UPBD 4) CRWV 5) STX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) ARKK 4) XLK 5) BLOK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FERG)/3.01

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in July.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Sept.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in July.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in July. 

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in July.
• Manufacturing  Production for Aug. is estimated to fall -.2% versus unch. in July.
• Capacity Utilization for Aug. is estimated to fall to 77.4% versus 77.5% in July.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 33.0 versus 32.0 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, JPMorgan All-Stars Conference, Scotia Bank Back to School Conference, Wells Fargo Consumer Conference, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference, (RL) investor day, RBC Communications Infra Conference, (WDAY) analyst day, RBC  Industrials Conference and the BNP Paribas Power Up Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.2 +1.0
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 15.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.07 -8.6% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$157.9M
  
• 133 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
• 60.8% (+.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.1 +2.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 82.5 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.0 +.8%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 165.6 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED from NEUTRAL) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 7.4 -36.1%
  
• Vix 15.4 +4.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +7.6%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu touted the strength of relations with the US, days after a strike against Hamas officials in Qatar drew a rebuke from Donald Trump.
• US and China representatives have begun their latest round of economic talks in Madrid as a diplomatic outreach between the two countries intensifies. 
• Federal Reserve meeting and $5 trillion quarterly triple-witching options expiry loom over the equity market, but volatility traders are also circling the upcoming jobs data day.
• Trump predicted a “big cut” from the Federal Reserve this week ahead of a pivotal meeting at which the central bank’s governors are expected to ease policy for the first time in nine months. 
• President Donald Trump’s campaign to squeeze billions of dollars out of Harvard University and other elite colleges looks set to create a windfall for US trade schools.
• Support for free speech is fading from college campuses, writes @MaryEllenKlas. It's time to rekindle tolerance for a good debate. 
• Tesla's German factory will produce more electric vehicles than earlier planned, plant manager André Thierig told German news agency DPA, citing “very good sales figures”. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge    

• If someone tells you republicans need to tone it down, that this is a time to “unite and come together”, please show them this. Unity is not possible with people who would laugh and dance on your grave. 
• New York Governor Kathy Hochul has endorsed Zohran Mamdani for New York City mayor.
• Oregon Is Hiding The Truth About Child Sex Changes. 
• Morgan Stanley: Why Rate Cuts Will Not Fix The Record Housing Unaffordability Problem.
• "He Was A Savant": How Charlie Kirk Challenged And Inspired A Generation Of Rising Political Influencers. 
• National Guard Deployment Planned For Memphis, Says Trump.
• Beyond The Fed, My Droog.
• Homeless Camps Are Morphing Into Larger Homeless 'Cities' In LA. 
• Images, Words, & Narratives Matter.
• These Are The Largest Immigrant Groups In America. 
• Are You Entitled To Your Own Facts?
• Europe On "High Alert" As Polish Moms Train For War Against Russia. 
• @ElonMusk. (video) 
• They Will Be Judged.
• Visualizing The Number Of Farms In Each US State.
• State Department Warns Against Americans Traveling To 6 Nations.
• 64% Of Robberies, Physical Attacks, & Sexual Assaults On Parisian Public Transport Are Committed By Foreigners.
• Germany's Bureaucratic State Devours 3% Of GDP.
• The Silk Road Toll: Beijing's Debt, Deals, & Control.
• A Turning Point For The Radical Left?
• We are almost at 40,000 entries of radical Leftist identities and their employers. This doesn’t even include data scraped from Bluesky and X. This is going to be big. 
• In recent days we have learned just how many Americans in positions of authority—child services, law clerks, hospital nurses, teachers, gov’t workers, even DOD employees—have been deeply and violently radicalized. The consequence of a vast, organized ecosystem of indoctrination. 

• @CNBC

• Global week ahead: From royal pomp to tech deals as Trump visits the U.K.
• Can an Amazon AI voice guide you better than customer product reviews? It's starting to try. 
• Stock futures are little changed after record Nasdaq close; investors await Fed meeting: Live updates.
• Asia markets set to open lower as investors watch U.S.-China talks in Spain.

• @GatewayPundit

• BOMBSHELL: Charlie Kirk Assassin Was in Steam Group Called ‘Read This If Your Gay,’ Echoing Message on Bullet Casing, Members Urged Encrypted Cover-Up of Chats RIGHT AFTER Shooting.
• WATCH: Gov. Cox Claims Trans Boyfriend Wasn’t Involved Because He Says He Wasn’t, Tells CNN That CHARLIE KIRK ‘Said Some Very Inflammatory Things’ .
• Alleged Charlie Kirk Assassin Tyler Robinson Joked About FBI Photo Being His ‘Doppelganger’ in 20-Person Discord Chats While on the Run.
• The world is rising up against the globalists - rejecting tyranny & facism in the name of “climate”, “diversity”, “gender confusion” & other scams… 
• European Warmongers Angry That Trump Did Not Buy Into the ‘Drone Attack in Poland’ – But Polls Show That Polish Population Believes it was Ukrainian False Flag! 
• WATCH: Trashy Rep. Jasmine Crockett Says She’s Not ‘Necessarily’ Encouraging Her Supporters to Hurt Republicans in Wake of Charlie Kirk Assassination, White House Responds.
• My liberal friends are completely oblivious about how radicalizing the last week has been for tens of millions of normal Americans. Zero clue. I’m not talking about people who are “online”; I mean regular, everyday Americans. “Normies.” People who scroll through Facebook posts and Instagram reels from the Dutch Bros drive thru line. Political moderates who have water cooler chats about Mahomes touchdowns and Bon Jovi concerts, not Twitter threads or Rachel Maddow monologues. Millions of them. Tens of millions. They’re logging on, they’re engaging, and they’re furious. And I’ll be candid: They blame you guys. They blame the left. Regardless of whether you believe it to be justified, they think you’re the bad guys here. And they are reacting accordingly. 

• @NYPost

• Charlie Kirk and rabbi pal talked hours before his death: ‘He was in a combative mood’.

• @MarioNawful

• U.S. NAVY BASE IN PUERTO RICO SUDDENLY REACTIVATED. Something big is happening in Puerto Rico, and most people haven’t noticed. An old U.S. Navy base that shut down back in 2004 is suddenly coming back to life. It used to be called Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, and now, it's full of activity again. Over the past week, hundreds of U.S. service members and military equipment have been moved there.
• PRINCE ANDREW COULD BE “DESTROYED” BY 100+ EPSTEIN EMAILS. Congress is sitting on over 100 secret emails between Andrew and Epstein - and sources say they’re “embarrassing and incriminating.” “If you thought Mandelson’s fall was bad,” one insider said, “just wait.”
• TURNING POINT EXPLODES AFTER ERIKA’S SPEECH: 18,000 NEW CHAPTERS. After the shocking assassination of Charlie Kirk, his wife Erika stepped up to the mic for the first time, and the response has been massive. Turning Point USA (TPUSA), the organization Charlie founded, said it has already received 18,000 new requests to start chapters at high schools and colleges across the country since Erika’s emotional speech. Before the speech, TPUSA had around 9,000 college chapters and 1,100 high school ones. Now, it’s nearly tripled overnight. 

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• BREAKING: In the 48 hours since Erika Kirk spoke, Turning Point USA has received over 32,000 requests to open new campus chapters. To put this in perspective, here are the numbers before she spoke: - College: 900. - High school: 1,200. The left has no idea what they’ve done.

• @GenFlynn

• The Globalists Killed Charlie Kirk & they have names, see below. Charlie Kirk’s death was a result of years of globalist de-humanization of conservatives, especially conservative Christians. Globalists hate GOD! These globalist “killers” are responsible for a campaign of de-humanization. For many years now, they demonized all of us with labels like racist, fascist, Nazi, far-right, or anti-this & anti-that, all for no reason other than to cause enough people to hate with such passion they were/are willing to resort to the most heinous of actions…such as murder or other demonic acts of power.

• @ElonMusk 

• Multiple trans people in the area posted on September 9th that "something big will be happening to Charlie Kirk tomorrow". Terrorist cell.
• FEMA SECTION CHIEF: Charlie Kirk "Kind of Deserved It" — O'Keefe Media Records Top Official at Federal Agency Laughing About Assassination of Conservative Commentator. FEMA execs cheered Charlie’s murder (video)

• @I_Am_JohnCullen

• Was the bullet that killed Charlie recovered? No. So, how do they know Charlie was shot/killed by a .30-06 round? Because, somewhere, in the woods, they found an old rifle. A mile away? 2 miles away? 4 miles away? Who found it? Can we see the bodycam footage of the moment they found the rifle in the woods? What connects THAT rifle they found, to the shot that killed Charlie Kirk? Nothing, until they find the bullet. 

• @Anc_Aesthetics

• While everyone was focused on Charlie Kirk’s assassination this Democrat judge in North Carolina ordered Iryna Zarutka’s murderer Decarlos Brown to be released from prison. They are trying to make sure he doesn’t even go to trial and is set free.

• @TheBritishIntel

• NEW: TOMMY ROBINSON HIRES HELICOPTER TO EXPOSE MEDIA LIES. Beautiful scenes as aerial footage captures the true scale of the London Free Speech Rally - with millions filling the streets. (video)

• @LizCrokin

• It's believed that a high-end sex ring operating in Washington, D.C. was a "honeypot" scheme to compromise politicians and government officials. The brothel was raided in November on the SAME DAY that 70 Republicans voted to fund a new FBI HQ larger than the Pentagon. Coincidence? Epstein was operating from one of the oldest playbooks in human history. He might be dead but our "elite" and powerful are still compromised by foreign actors because too many of them are degenerate lowlifes. —
  @charliekirk11 1/4/24. (pic)
• Why did people try to silence this eyewitness to the assassination of Charlie Kirk? Why are there so many MAGA patriots trying to silence people for asking questions and pointing out inconvenient facts surrounding Charlie Kirk’s assassination? (video)

• @MalleusIg

• Everything just changed for me about the Charlie Kirk shooting. (video)

• @disclosetv

• NOW - Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, and Netanyahu pray at the "Wailing Wall" in Israel wearing kippahs. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• INSANE LA TEACHER CALLS FOR DEATH OF MILLIONS. Erik Travis, a teacher at @FairfaxHS in Los Angeles, CA has openly called for more violence. "Far right assholes have a target on their backs, and deserve to die. One down, millions to go." How is this ALLOWED? The Left wants to kill millions of people. Anyone with whom they disagree. They want mass extermination based on your "thought crimes."
• Why did they dismantle the crime scene so quickly and effectively tamper with evidence? (video)

• @TonySeruga

• I have been told this morning by an FBI analyst reviewing the reams of GPS data, there very well may be dozens of co-conspirators.

• @KariLake

• I believe Charlie Kirk was destined to be President, and maybe sooner rather than later. He had not only an incredible common-sense ideology and a love for country, but he also had the mechanism and the platform to make it happen. That made him a threat to a lot of people who don't just want to stop President Trump; they want to stop the people who would inherit Trump's movement and move it forward. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• They don’t want you to see what THIS camera captured. (pic)
• Right before Charlie Kirk’s assassination, Kash Patel FIRED the head of the FBI’s Salt Lake City field office in Utah. Former agents called her “absolutely the best in the bureau. A legendary case agent involved in the biggest national security cases of the last two decades.” In her final warning she said: “What we need here in Utah is more resources, more agents, more professional staff, more intel analysts.” Guess who would’ve been leading the investigation into Charlie Kirk’s assassin?

• @JonnyRoot_

• The @NFL just released a cowardly statement, saying there won’t be a league-wide recognition of Charlie Kirk & they will not publicly condemn political violence at games Sunday. “It’s up to the clubs for this Sunday’s games”. 

• @AFpost

• FBI Director Kash Patel is growing increasingly unpopular with the MAGA base, from his handling of the Epstein case to Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

• @QuantumAlteredX

• Erika Kirk states the proverbial "they" won't silence him. So if it's a lone crazed gunman... Who is "they" wanting to silence him. (video)

• @darren_dazmav80

• Charlie Kirks wife's twitter looks very odd....... Only 44 posts since 2021 then on the 8th,9th and 10th of September 2025 she puts out 3 posts containing bible scripture.

• @_MLFootball

• FOUR #NFL TEAMS DID NOT HONOR CHARLIE KIRK AT THEIR GAME TODAY — no moment of silence or flag at half-mast. • Indianapolis #Colts • Cincinnati #Bengals • Detroit #Lions • Baltimore #Ravens These teams have taken heavy backlash on social media for this.

• @StockSavvyShay

• THE INFERENCE EXPLOSION IS JUST STARTING • $NVDA dominates GPUs. • $AVGO leads XPUs. • $ARM & $AMD drive CPUs. • $ASML is the AI kingmaker. • $TSM is the AI factory. • $ALAB runs the interconnect. The power trade is $OKLO, $VRT, $GEV. Neoclouds -- $NBIS $CRWV $IREN -- are the hotspot while $GOOGL, $MSFT & $AMZN keep writing blank capex checks. (graph)

• @MalleusIg

• Everything just changed for me about the Charlie Kirk shooting. (video)

• @Unusual_whales

• BREAKING: This politician has bet against the US economy. Representative Tim Moore disclosed new trades showing a leveraged bet against U.S. small-cap stocks Moore invested up to $215,000 in the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares ETF, $TZA. The ETF delivers three times the inverse daily erformance of the Russell 2000 Index, profiting when small-cap stocks decline. He is a member of the House Financial Services Committee.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.7 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.06% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.