Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Jitters, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Utility/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.66 +.22%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.02% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.96% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.8 +3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +5.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.5 +1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +8.3% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 292.54 +.10:  Growth Rate +11.7% unch., P/E 22.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 486.69 +.47: Growth Rate +19.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .70 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -41.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.7 +.1 point
• US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% +30.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.9% -1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.99% unch.: CPI YoY +3.0% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.72 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th FOMC meeting: 76.8% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th meeting: 69.9%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -297 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging markets shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Nuclear -3.1% 2) Gold & Silver -1.8% 3) Utilities -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TECK, SA, GRDN, ORLA, RKLB and PLAY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JEPQ 2) JETS 3) BITF 4) PLAY 5) MPW

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PLAY 2) RKLB 3) HAIN 4) HIMS 5) KLC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLP 3) XLY 4) XLV 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.6% 2) Oil Service +2.3% 3) Defense +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WBTN, JMIA, CRNC, PAGS, BIDU, APA, CVI, BE, JAMF, USAR, STLD, MRNA, CLSK, RIVN, CMPR, QSG, RAPP, WIX, MARA, FERG, SGHC, AMKR, OXY, CGON, KLIC, DLO, ONTO, RGEN, SKY, TGS, CHRD, HSY, ACMR, ADUR, HUT, ROKU, CHA, RIOT, TCOM, MAZE, CVE, JD, VCEL, ENVA, IMO, KVYO, BABA, BMNR and NVO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JETS 2) URNM 3) OPI 4) CRNC 5) LAZR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WBTN 2) STLD 3) BE 4) FERG 5) CIFR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) VGT 3) IBB 4) IHI 5) VFH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CBRL)/.77
• (GIS)/.81 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Aug. is estimated to fall to 1365K versus 1428K in July.
• Building Permits for Aug. is estimated to rise to 1370K versus 1362K in July. 

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to lower the benchmark Fed Funds Rate from 4.25-4.5% to 4.0-4.25%. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC's press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, KeyBanc Taking Charge Energy Transition Symposium, (CAG) annual meeting, (TRUP) investor day, (MDB) investor meeting and the DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 -3.8
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 36.5% of Issues Advancing, 61.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .92 -24.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$6.6M
  
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 59.3% (-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.7 -2.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 80.9 -2.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 +.6%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.9 -.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 58.0 (GREED) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.8 +30.7%
  
• Vix 16.1 +2.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -11.6%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• President Trump said the US is ready to strike drug cartels on land and at sea after he said it struck a second vessel ferrying drugs from Venezuela. "It's spattered all over the ocean, big bags of cocaine and fentanyl all over the place," he said Monday.
• Colombia President Gustavo Petro said the US has “decertified” Colombia as a partner in the war on drugs amid the biggest cocaine boom in history.
• BREAKING: The US Senate approves President Trump’s economic adviser, Stephen Miran, to join the Federal Reserve board. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge    

• Elizabeth Warren, Sept 16, 2024: "Fed must cut by 75bps on Sept 18" (Fed cut 50bps two days later) Elizabeth Warren, Sept 15, 2025: "Every claim [Stephen Miran] makes and every vote he takes will be tainted with the suspicion that he is Donald Trump’s puppet".
• Wednesday may see the first ever Fed 4-way vote split: 2/3 voting 50bps cut, majority voting 25bps cut, several hardcore Democrats voting unchanged... and Lisa Cook suddenly turning uber hawk and voting 25bps hike. 
• Appeals Court Rules Trump Can't Fire Cook, As Miran Wins Fed Confirmation By 1 Vote Margin. 
• Which Fields Of Study Are (Not) Leading To Jobs? 
• *MIRAN'S NOMINATION TO FED BOARD CLEARS SENATE PROCEDURAL VOTE. 
• Trump Threatens National Emergency After DC Mayor Blocks Cops From Helping ICE. 
• The CDC Needed A Thorough Housecleaning. 
• BREAKING: Over one hundred teachers in Texas will have their teaching certifications suspended and will be rendered ineligible to work in the state’s public schools after endorsing the assassination of Charlie Kirk or inciting further violence, per Gov. Greg Abbott. 
• AI Can Code Faster Than Humans, But Speed Comes With Far-Reaching Risks. 
• Energy Secretary Wright Says U.S. Will Expand Uranium Reserve As Nuclear Enters "Rapid Growth" Phase.
• "Be Warned, We Are Hunting You": Trump Unleashes Second Attack On 'Narcoterrorists' Near Venezuela.  
• Gold Soars To New Record High Ahead Of Fed, Bonds & Stocks Bid.

• @CNBC

• Tuesday's big stock stories: What's likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after benchmark closes above 6,600: Live updates.
• Tim Cook says Apple's manufacturing expansion across the U.S. will create a 'domino effect'.
• Asia stocks poised to climb after Trump says U.S.-China trade negotiations progressing well.
  

• @MarioNawful

• CANDACE OWENS: CHARLIE KIRK WAS THREATENED BEFORE DEATH. Charlie Kirk faced “threats” weeks before his death, according to Candace Owens. She says Charlie was rethinking his stance on Israel, had been contacted by Netanyahu, and was offered “a ton of money” in that moment. Candace describes this as a turning point leading up to his final days. Ackman has denied her allegations, calling them “totally false.”(video)
• TRUMP: QATAR IS A GREAT ALLY, ISRAEL HAS TO HANDLE HAMAS CAREFULLY. "My message [to Netanyahu] is this: they have to be very, very careful. They have to do something about Hamas. But Qatar has been a great ally to the U.S. (video)

• @newstart_2024

• Klaus Schwab and the WEF are no longer hiding their game. In his own words, he reveals the true strategy: never let a good crisis go to waste. He admits that "climate change" is the primary lever, but the goal is far broader. It's about exploiting the public's fear and "sensitivity" to fundamentally "reshape" our entire society. (video)
• Bill Gates praises India's Aadhaar system not for liberty, but for control. He admires a "command center" tracking citizens—a blueprint for technocratic governance. He sees a world where your identity, finances, and health are linked to the state via digital ID. "Benefits" are just tools for compliance. His vision is a social credit system, starting with Aadhaar. This isn't empowerment. It's surveillance. And he's calling it the future. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Lake Havasu, Arizona chants “Charlie! Charlie! Charlie” at their vigil for Charlie Kirk. The crowd is massive, as far as the eyes can see people are holding their phones chanting for Charlie Kirk. Listen to how loud and powerful this is. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• UPDATE: Charlie Kirk. 5 Minutes after Charlie was Shot, a Man is Spotted removing the overhead Video Camera, Directly over Charlie Kirk’s Head. This is an active crime scene… blood everywhere… and he’s standing in it? Why is he removing anything? Was he standing on top of the chair Charlie was shot in? This is a disgrace. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• The site of Charlie Kirk’s assassination is already being torn down and “cleaned up.” An eyewitness filmed the entire platform where he was shot being dismantled and replaced with a new one. The FBI insists the investigation is still ongoing. But if that’s true—did they already gather every piece of evidence they needed? (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: Speaker Mike Johnson is planning on passing ANOTHER BIDEN OMNIBUS CONTINUING RESOLUTION (CR) September 30th. This comes after a 40+ day "August Recess" and a promise to only pass 12 individual spending bills. Why are "Republicans" trying to pass Democrat Spending Bills?

• @infolibnews

• Israeli agent Rabbi Pesach Wolicki, who gave Charlie Kirk hasbara coaching just hours before his death, says, "It really hurt [Charlie] when the Jewish community came down on him for platforming certain speakers at his last conference who were anti-Israel…" "I was not happy that Charlie had given the stage to people like Tucker Carlson, who were spewing venom about the Jewish state…" "He really believed—to a fault, I believe—in allowing every voice to be heard…" "There were many prominent people in the America First movement who would privately speak to Charlie and message him, trying to get him to drop his support for Israel…" (video)

• @Defence_Index

• BREAKING: Trump administration to spend $3.5 billion to replace missile defense systems used to protect Israel.

• @annvandersteel

• Warning: you are living through a psychological operation. Nothing is at it seems.

• @HealthRanger

• Wow, what's in the handoff? (video)
• Do you all realize that carrying a rifle around in several pieces, with the optic removed, and the barrel removed, and then reassembling it, will CHANGE THE ZERO of the rifle to the point where you can't possibly make an accurate first shot? Everybody who shoots rifles knows this. So why is the FBI telling us that this guy has a magic rifle that magically returns to a perfect zero even when the optics and barrel are re-assembled? The story doesn't add up at all. 

• @VigilantFox

• RFK Jr. just brought the house down at the Kennedy Center. The entire building erupted in chants of “USA!” after he shared an unforgettable conversation he once had with Charlie Kirk about death. “I had a conversation once with Charlie where we were talking about the danger that we both faced from challenging entrenched interests. And he asked me if I was scared to die. And I said to him, ‘There’s a lot worse things than dying.’” Kennedy continued: “And one of the chief among us is losing our constitutional rights and having our children raised in slavery. (video)

• @BennyJohnson

• DNI Tulsi Gabbard delivers powerful remarks at Charlie Kirk’s Kennedy Center prayer vigil: “Ultimately, for every one of us, the time that we have in this world is temporary. Our time will come, sooner or later. And so the critical question that we have for ourselves is, whatever time we have, what are we doing with it? How are we making the most of every day that we have?” “Charlie Kirk, every single day, carried out his mission, motivated by his faith in Jesus Christ and his unwavering dedication to defending Our God-given freedoms enshrined in our Constitution and Bill of Rights.” (video)

• @OwenShroyer1776

• FBI Director Patel says they have a note as evidence confirming the shooter even though the note doesn't exist. What? This just keeps getting weirder and worse. (video)

• @NicetryMYAH

• Now I came across this one that shows the Bullet in Motion, with sound. And Dang! Is there a stair case shooter? @FBIDirectorKash @FBIDDBongino @FBI @BasedMikeLee #CharlieKirk #charliekirkshooter @theblaze @TPUSA you need some fresh eyes to look at more video. It feels like there were 2-3 possible shooters just incase one failed. (video)

• @benwehrman

• 99.99% of people on this platform are SPRINTING through each new narrative being fed to them by the Gov. agencies regarding the Charlie Kirk case, while there are still HUGE unanswered questions lingering from the very first day of this fiasco. STOP, take a deep breath to collect your emotions, and watch the short video I've attached below, which analyzes 2 clips: (video)

• @In2ThinAir

• THIS is why they are hiding the "Tent Camera" in the Charlie Kirk assassination! That camera has the PROOF and all info needed to know what really happened here. (video)

• @BrittRooted

• Thousands gathered together to honor Charlie Kirk at the San Clemente Outlets in Southern California led by Pastor John Randall. Amazing. (video)

• @IV_Musketeer

• As per usual the official narratives are complete rubbish. (video)

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Disturbing footage of liberal children wishing death on prominent conservatives Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Elon Musk when their mom told them that she had ‘the best news ever’ only to be surprised with news of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce getting married. Dear God it is far worse than I ever imagined… (video)

• @VladTheInflator

• Ummmm maybe this should be at least explored? Still feels like an op. (video)

• @RyanMattaMedia

• If you are investigating the Charlie Kirk assassination and you are using footage that you downloaded from X. Please watch this video. I’m begging the employees at TPUSA, please post the original footage and please send me a copy of the original footage from the Sony cameras places directly in front of Charlie. With the original footage from any of these videos we can put almost single conspiracy theory to rest. If anyone has original footage from this event. Please message me on X. Thank you. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 -1.0 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 36.5 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 83.1 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.04% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.