Wednesday, October 01, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ 
  • @harryfisherEMTP
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @newstart_2024 
  • EricLDaugh
  • @DowdEdward
  • @Rothbard1776
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @NicHulscher
  • @SidneyPowell1
  • @SenseReceptor
  • @stella_immanuel
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @itsmorganariel
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @FiveTimesAugust
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @wideawake_media
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.42 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.1 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.10% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.52%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.7 +6.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .26 +15.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 83.2 -.4% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.96 +.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.73 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.75 -1.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 +.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 202.0 +39.0
  • Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%
  • NYSE Arms .96 -18.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$113.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.0 -1.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.0 -.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 210.0 -11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.0 -1.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 118.5 -1.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.9 +.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.4 -.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 75.6 -.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.57 +.24%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -41.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 1.55 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 588.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 50.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 +.15%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.10% -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.93% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.3 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.3 -4.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.8 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 +3.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% -3.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.80 +.12:  Growth Rate +12.3% unch., P/E 22.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.56 +.32: Growth Rate +17.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.44 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 86.7% (+9.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 52.2%(-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +270 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Education -2.4% 2) I-Banking -1.7% 3) Airlines -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ACLS, KROS, TSLX, DOCU, ZG, KVYO, DKNG, Z, MELI, KNTK, OCUL, QURE, AIR, FLY, HUBS, CTVA, RDDT, WIX, WOLF and MFH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XP 2) SCHD 3) CLOV 4) WOLF 5) SYM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RDDT 2) ZG 3) TAYD 4) NFLX 5) CALM
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) URNM 2) IGV 3) IBB 4) PTF 5) PRN

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +5.8% 2) Alt Energy +4.5% 3) Disk Drives +4.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MENS, AES, QS, WYFI, FLNC, OLMA, ASTS, CSIQ, SOC, ARCT, AZN, SNDK, LLY, BCAX, VECO, CIVI, RGEN, MU, REGN, AVAV, BIIB, MRK, STX, AVTR, BMY, PFE, WDC, MRNA, LW, NTLA, SPRY, NVO, A, AMGN, INTC, AYI, ANAB, PL, VRT, ENVX, SUPX, CRK, SMCI, IQV, MT, ARM, ETSY, TECH, DHR, NKE, FORM, GILT, ARQT, GSK, ABBV, XIFR, CWEN, DIN, RUN, GEO, CAG, ARGX, CGAU, CPRX, MSGE, BETR, ASO, LENZ, ROIV, TWST, MSTR, GSAT, GLXY, UNFI, HUT, MNMD, DELL, EOSE, HHH, VIPS, TSLA, EXE, GMAB, SA, ROKU, SEI, RKT, BNTX, SGHC, BEP and TSM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TSLY 2) TMO 3) ABTC 4) PAYO 5) AES
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LAC 2) AES 3) ASTS 4) ARLP 5) NKE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) SMH 3) XLV 4) XLC 5) XBI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANGO)/-.12
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Sept. 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 218K the prior week. (likely delayed by US govt. shutdown)
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1931K versus 1926K prior. 

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a -1.3% decline in July.
  • Factory Orders Tx Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in July.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Aug.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, the Fed's weekly balance sheet report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +12.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +2.5
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 52.5% of Issues Advancing, 45.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .87 -28.7% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$65.8M
  • 129 New 52-Week Highs, 30 New Lows
  • 59.1% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.1 +4.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.3 +.01%
  • US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 331.25 +1.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 256.7 -.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.7 -.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.4 -21.6%
  • Vix 16.1 -.9%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -10.6%