Evening Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• President Trump has proposed a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza. Israel is onboard. Hamas accepted one part. Here's what you need to know. 
• Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is poised to elect its new leader on Saturday, in a vote that is also likely to determine who will become Japan’s next prime minister.
• Cerebras has filed to withdraw paperwork for an IPO more than a year after publicly unveiling plans.
• Sean “Diddy” Combs was sentenced to 50 months Friday on prostitution-related charges for transporting escorts across state lines to his “freak-off” sex parties.
• Aligned Data Centers is in advanced discussions to be acquired by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners in a $40 billion deal, on pace to be potentially the biggest ever for any data center company.

• @Zerohedge 

• "
  The Floor Fell Out": LA's Entertainment Industry Is In Full Collapse
  .
• Unprecedented US Military Build-Up Near Venezuela Is Sign Of Possible War
  .
• The Courage To Stand Alone In An Age Of Cowards
  .
• Goldman: This Is The Biggest Short Squeeze Since The Meme Stock Massacre.
• Shocker: Soros-Backed Tides Foundation Funding Wikipedia.
• *TESLA HIT BY ENFORCEMENT ACTIONS FROM CA DEPT OF INSURANCE. *TESLA BUSINESS PRACTICES HARM CALIFORNIA DRIVERS: DEPARTMENT. 
   
• "the continued divergence between equity implied volatility vs. realized volatility is at one of the most pronounced differences we’ve seen on record." -GS
   
• Portland Police Detain Journalist, Not Antifa Soldiers, Spurring White House Probe
  .
• "Cancel Netflix" Google Searches Erupt After Musk Urges Parents To Protect Kid From "Groomer" Shows
  .
• Shutdown update: Senate gone until 3pm Monday, with votes set for 5:30pm. House cancels next week’s session. No end to the government shutdown in sight
  .  
• Hamas Ready To Release All Hostages In Major Trump Deal Breakthrough.
• "Squeezy Out There": Jobs Data Stalls Stocks, But Shutdown Brings Big Week For Bitcoin & Bullion
  .

• @WSJ

• A group of nine universities are at the center of a political collision as they prepare responses by Oct. 20 to the Trump administration’s sweeping proposal to reform campus operations in exchange for preferential access to federal funds. 
• To the world, Hamas said it has accepted major parts of President Trump’s peace plan. Internally, Hamas remains bitterly divided over how to proceed. 
• BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, is starting to play its hand in the world’s most capital-intensive market: the AI boom. 

• @CNBC

• Detroit auto stocks jump on report of tariff relief for U.S. vehicles.
• Cramer's week ahead: Dell's analyst meeting and earnings from McCormick, Delta.

• @ShadowofEzra

• FBI Director Kash Patel says social media is out of control and insists the U.S. government must step in to address what he calls “clickbait.” Patel claims most assassins are radicalized online and says he is working with Congress to confront the problem. He says he doesn’t answer to clickbait conspiracy theorists and vows to uncover anyone else tied to Charlie Kirk’s murder. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• NEW VIDEO: THE “MOST WANTED MAN” CAUGHT CASUALLY FILLING UP HOURS AFTER THE ASSASSINATION. Sept 11th, hours after Charlie Kirk was assassinated, the accused shooter Tyler Robinson is caught on camera calmly fueling his car at a Cedar City gas station, nearly 200 miles away. The country was told there was a massive manhunt. But the “most wanted man in America” was free, filling up at the pump, driving off, and allegedly dumping evidence in a trash can. Notice anything that doesn’t match up?

• @stkirsch

• Fauci said the shot would add to natural immunity. The reality? It weakened it. The vaccine antibodies hijack the virus, blocking your natural ones (the ones that actually work). The result? Lower immunity. More sickness. Fauci’s advice didn’t just fail—it left people worse off. Why are people are still taking this shot? exactly. COVID shots made people worse. (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• The UK Government respond to the Petition to Stop Digital ID which quickly amassed over 2,750,000 Signatures in record time. The Gov Response - “We will introduce Digital ID anyway”. This isn’t a Democracy - nobody voted for it, Digital ID Wasn’t in the Manifesto - this is absolute in your face Tyranny & Keir Starmer is a Dictator managing a Dictatorship. (pic)

• @TheIntelSCIF

• Candace is EXPOSING their PLAYBOOK. This goes beyond the Charlie Kirk assassination. Why is UTAH STATE PROSECUTORS picking TYLER ROBINSON'S ATTORNEY? They are literally picking their own OPPONENT, which is illegal, and would essential mean they are hiring a shill lawyer to REPRESENT TYLER, to then easily CONVICT him. The STATE big shot attorneys will ALWAYS take the STATE'S SIDE. The SYSTEM is RIGGED, plain and simple. Something is very, VERY WRONG here, and I believe a lot of YOU are starting to see it. (video)
• "EPSTEIN was the GREATEST BLACKMAILER EVER". - Howard Lutnick. This should CONFIRM everything you already know. How do you COVERTLY take control of a country? Whoever controlled Jeffery Epstein is who controls the United States and many other governments and countries. Blackmail runs the world and is why we need to eradicate it and remove everyone who is under its control from powerful positions. (video)

• @annvandersteel

• Here’s what I don’t get: We spent 4 yrs on the ReAwaken America Tour warning about COVID jabs, mRNA, AI & agency government. Eric & Don Jr came, Eric even got POTUS on the phone to where millions could hear him speak to us. Even .
  @LauraLoomer spoke at the Miami Trump Doral Reawaken Tour stop..so I know she comprehends just how deadly these mRNA jabs are... Now Trump cuts Big Pharma deals in the Oval? Are we supposed to accept cheaper #BigPharma meds as the distraction while the big money maker, mRNA, keeps on jabbing people with an already deadly safety profile being exposed daily? Was this 5D chess — or a Trojan horse? (video)
  

• @newstart_2024 

• Lara Logan masterfully deconstructs the architecture of modern control. She reveals a simple, repeating pattern used to dismantle society: the weaponization of our most fundamental truths. The elite create "problems" that are inherently unsolvable. Your race, your biological sex, the very CO2 you exhale—these are framed as existential threats. But how do you "solve" your own skin color? How do "fix" your innate masculine or feminine nature? How do you eliminate a gas that is the bedrock of all plant life? You cannot. That is the entire point. (video)
• This is a stunning admission from ECB President Christine Lagarde, and a perfect window into the globalist mindset. She laments that "democratic process" is a "drag" and that "speed is of the essence." She is frustrated that her grand vision—a Digital Euro—is being slowed down by the tedious necessity of parliamentary debate and public scrutiny. Let's be clear about what she is saying:
• They are no longer hiding their plans. A WEF panelist just laid bare the true, dystopian purpose of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). He admits, on stage, that this isn't about "convenience." It's about control. Here’s what he’s really saying: Your money will have an EXPIRY DATE. They can force you to spend it by a certain time, eliminating your ability to save. They will decide what you can BUY. The state could program your digital currency so it cannot be used for "undesirable" things like ammunition, certain foods, or even political donations. It's a tool for SOCIAL ENGINEERING. Your access to money will be a conduit for enforcing government-approved behavior. He calls this "very powerful." He's right. It's the most powerful tool for totalitarian control ever conceived. (video)

• @thehealthb0t

• Bill Gates requested the Danish government to support DTP vaccination for 161 million African children, claiming it saved 30 million lives. The Danish government discovered that vaccinated girls died at 10 times the rate of unvaccinated girls. (video)
• Bombshell Study Finds 1 in 35 Moderna Booster Recipients Suffered Vaxx-Related Heart Damage.

• @RyanMattaMedia

• Citizen journalists are rapidly dismantling the FBI's alleged cover-up of the attempted assassination of Charlie Kirk. The narrative of Tyler Robinson acting as a lone shooter on the rooftop, purportedly with a furry boyfriend, is unraveling at an unprecedented pace. (video)

• @WallStreetMav

• I don't really see how Britain avoids a violent internal war at this point. The Muslims simply won't co-exist with western civilization peacefully. Naive politicians like Keir Starmer, and others on the left, thought they could create allies. He was wrong. (video)

• @KatiePavlich

• The Secret Service dismantled a network of more than 300 SIM servers and 100,000 SIM cards in the New York-area that were capable of crippling telecom systems and carrying out anonymous telephonic attacks, disrupting the threat before world leaders arrived for the UN General Assembly. So, it turns out this was China.

• @TruthFairy131

• Christians from Nigeria & all over Africa & the Middle East are being mass slaughtered by Muslims EVERY SINGLE DAY. Yet, the leftist social justice warriors, the Government & the MSM are completely silent. Instead, their focus is on supporting the Islamists that are hunting & murdering these innocent human beings. You have to understand that the Left do NOT care about human life, they just follow what is seen as popular. (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• NEW: MEDICINE BY PERMISSION? Starmer’s push for Digital ID + “Online Hospitals” points to a chilling future: No BritCard, no care. Logins, prescriptions, test results, even booking a GP—all gated by compliance. Today it’s sold as “convenience.” Tomorrow it’s: “Account suspended—verify your ID.” “Prescription blocked—policy non-compliant.” “Appointment cancelled—access denied.” The elderly, the unbanked, the dissenters—locked out with a switch. Healthcare must be a right, not a reward for obedience.

• @Basil_TGMD

• Hamas Co-Founder who Keir Starmer recently rewarded with recognition of a state. "The entire planet will be under our law; there will be no more Jews or Christian traitors". “The entire 510 million square kilometers of Planet Earth will come under a system where there is no Zionism, no treacherous Christianity". (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: A SCANDAL is erupting in the Virginia Attorney General election after Democrat candidate Jay Jones FANTASIZED about Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert being shot, said he would "piss on the graves" of Republicans, and hoped for the death of their children. This is insane. This is the Democrat Party of 2025. VOTE RED, VIRGINIA.

• @ABridgen

• BigPharma knew that for every person killed by the Covid 19 gene therapies at least 3 would be seriously harmed and they could sell them treatments for their ‘vaccine’ injuries for the rest of their ( shorter ) lives. Is this why Pfizer acquired a cancer treatment company for $43B in 2023? (video)

• @greg_price11

• This is INSANE. The man who attempted to assassinate Brett Kavanaugh was just sentenced to just 8 years in prison by Biden-appointed Judge Deborah Boardman. She considered fact that he now identifies as a woman into giving him a lower sentence.

• @calleymeans

• Just listened to Chelsea Clinton’s anti-MAHA podcast. The argument of the episode is RFK is right that we’re disastrously sick, but it’s “dangerous” to question the status quo. Chelsea had a discredited Big Food spokesperson on to discuss: How it is antiquated dangerous to suggest it’s better for mothers to raise their infants instead of daycare. How baby formula is “better” than breast milk. How seed oils are healthy for babies and it’s dangerous to ask questions about that. They also argued RFK and President Trump “want” to harm kids, which is an evil and defamatory lie. I am convinced the MAHA movement will foundationally change politics and public health because the counter-arguments are so bankrupt and weak.

• @DrKellyVictory

• For the record, exposing the data that show that flu shots don't work doesn't make you "anti-VAX"; it makes you "honest". @SecKennedy @RobertKennedyJr. (video)

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,621.5 +1.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 46,820.0 +1.2%

• NASDAQ 22,789.9 +1.1%

• Russell 2000 2,477.4 +2.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,135. -.2%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 267.2 +7.5%

• Wilshire 5000 66,572.0 +1.0%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,734.4 +1.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,020.07 +1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 865.01 -.1%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 255.1 -1.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 7,326.9 +2.9%

• Transports 15,849.8 +.9%

• Utilities 1,127.8 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 99.4 -.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 54.1 +2.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 240.58 -.21%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 127.03 -.29%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 577,125 -.69%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +23.9%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,395 +1,386

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.4 -1.4%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 102,958 +4.3%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,936,690 -1.3%

• Total Put/Call .75 -7.8%

• OEX Put/Call 1.07 -1.3%

• ISE Sentiment 157.0 -17.0

• NYSE Arms .82 +13.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.9 -1.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.49 -8.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 16.6 +9.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .43 -36.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.3 +2.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.2 -4.2%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.4 -2.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 24,178.6 +.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.2 unch.

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.315 Trillion unch.

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.666 Million

• AAII % Bulls 42.9 +2.9%

• AAII % Bears 39.2 unch.
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (NEUTRAL) -4.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.33 -1.7%

• Crude Oil 60.83/bbl. -6.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 185.80 -5.8%

• Natural Gas 3.32 +17.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -3.5%
  

• Heating Oil 224.0 -7.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 108.0 (1,000/metric ton) +1.4%

• Gold 3,888.4 +3.2%
• Silver 48.08 +3.9%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 487.5 +2.4%

• Copper 509.6 +6.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 347.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.75 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,325.0 USD/metric tonne +1.2%

• CME Lumber  615.0 +3.6%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,352.95 -.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 332.5 USD/Short Ton -1.5%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.8 +3.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.40 +15.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 518.3 +64.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 -3.1%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $206.0 Billion($1,279.50 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% -3.4 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.11 +.81:  Growth Rate +12.4% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.8 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.98 -12.73: Growth Rate +17.4% -3.1 percentage points, P/E 34.0 +1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.0 -12.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 +2.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 97.8%(+10.1 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.75-4.0%, 2.2%(-10.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.25-4.5% on 10/29

• US Dollar Index 97.77 -.42%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,843.8 +.32%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 122,542.0 +9.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 195.79 -1.0%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +.2%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 54.5 +.25 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.11% -8.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.539 Trillion -.33%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $7.403 Billion +25.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.7 +2.4%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 200.3 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 81.0 -3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.7 +.6%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.24 +1.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.7 -2.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 78.2 -1.8%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.5 -3.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.56 -.1%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 125.41 -.12%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.7% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 -9.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -22.25 basis points -.25 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.5 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 3.5 -3.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.4 -2.5%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 200.0 +1.0% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 224.0 -1.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.5 -3.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 129.0 -2.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 145.6 -1.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 120.0 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 601.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.8% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,346.5B -2.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,500 n/a

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% n/a
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.1 -2.8%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.38% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 339,100 -12.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.1% -10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $100.0M -47.6%

• Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon -.00/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,909.0 -15.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,760.4/40 ft Box -5.2%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,087.4 -2.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 50.0 -13.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 72.9 -1.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 283,739 +.59%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,005,089 -26.8% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 46.0% -3.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +10.2%

• Pharma +10.1%
• Alt Energy +7.7%

• Biotech +6.1%
  

• Coal +4.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -2.3%

• Oil Service -2.6%
  

• Shipping -2.9%

• Energy -3.7%
  

• Gambling -7.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (77)

• QUBT, FCEL, USAR, BETR, RCAT, BTDR, QS, CLPT, QBTS, RGTI, BTU, CIFR, HUM, CCCX, IREN, ADUR, CBLL, OSCR, MESO, UMAC, ACHR, FLNC, NNE, TCMD, SNDK, PCVX, PPTA, CLSK, OUST, ARDT, SHOP, SD, CI, RIOT, LTBR, MUX, PTCT, SSTK, TWST, CDTX, CURB, WERN, AVAV, SIRI, HTFL, EOSE, NBIS, KNSL, DCTH, AMTM, MAT, ONTO, SPRY, RKLB, ETSY, GRAL, IONQ, GMAB, SERV, KNX, DNA, SNDR, IDYA, ASAN, GRAL, JHX, DBRG, NEE, BE, HOND, BBBY, FCX, FICO, MP, CMG, SCCO, ASTS, MU and FFBC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)

• PGY, PM, HROW, TSLA, UEC, XPEV, WYNN, FORD, LVS, RBLX and TPB

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.39 +.01%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.11% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.0 -3.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.7 -2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 +1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.11 +.31:  Growth Rate +12.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 23.0 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.5% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 476.98 +.42: Growth Rate +17.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.0 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.5 unch.
• US Yield Curve 54.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.8% +3.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.99% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 +5.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 84.9% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.8%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +330 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/3.38

Economic Releases 

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• (BN) 3-for-2
• (BNT) 3-for-2 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for Sept. and the JPMorgan Software Forum could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept his policy options open by reiterating the bank’s long-held stance on interest rates, avoiding sending any clear signals about the prospects for a rate hike when the board meets later this month.
• Digital subsea cables were designed for cooperation, not conflict. As the line between peace and war blurs, the reality is setting in that these critical lines are highly vulnerable.
• Gavin Newsom threatened to withhold billions in state funding from universities that back a Trump administration plan tying funding to limits on international students.
• Applied Materials said expanded US export curbs to China will further cut its revenue. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Alberta Proposes New Oil Pipeline.
• VIX ETPs are still long 180mm vega and keep getting bought. We saw buyer of year-end 6950 calls yesterday (6mm vega), playing for the spot up, vol up tape to continue as we keep busting thru all-time highs: GS Derivs. 
• Top FDA Vaccine Official Says US Vaccine Schedule May Be Suboptimal.
• Data Centers "Primary Reason" For High PJM Capacity Prices: Market Monitor.
• Six Thematic Takeaways, Buy-Rated Stocks From Goldman's Global Sustainability Forum.
• CNN is not a NEWS organization. They cut off the Republican press conference to CENSOR the truth from the American people and LIE about indisputable FACTS: On page 57 of the Democrat’s OWN bill - they insist we restore $200 BILLION in health care subsidies for illegal aliens. CNN must correct this. @SpeakJohnson (video)  
• Your Hot Tea May Come With A Splash Of Microplastics.
• Department Of Energy Cancels Another $7.6 Billion In Energy Project Funding.
• Copper Highest In Year On Supply Disruptions Collide With AI And Power Grid Demand.
• Performative until the end.
• Stocks Shrug Off Shutdown Day 2 As Bitcoin Rips, Gold Dips.   

• @CNBC

• Asia markets set to open higher after Wall Street gains as investors look past government shutdown.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as AI trade drives market to fresh highs, shutdown grinds on: Live updates. 
• USA Rare Earth jumps 6% after CEO confirms discussions with Trump administration.

• @MarioNawful

• 850 CHRISTIANS STILL HELD IN JIHADIST CAMPS IN NIGERIA. At least 850 Christians remain captive in jihadist camps across Nigeria, many tortured or killed if ransoms aren't paid, according to international NGOs. Recent cases include kidnapped nuns, murdered priests, and ransom deals to free clergy in Enugu and Kogi. Reports also point to systematic abductions of Christian children, sent to Islamic orphanages in the north for forced religious conversion. Since 2009, over 19,000 churches have been attacked or shut down, averaging more than three per day.

• @thehealthb0t

• YouTube removed this video. The real money is not in the vaccines. It’s in the remedies being sold for the injuries from the vaccines. (video)

• @newstart_2024 

• The entire UN 2030 Agenda rests on one cornerstone: your voluntary adoption of Digital ID. As Whitney Webb powerfully argues, they are investing billions to sell you on its "convenience." They'll pitch it as the solution to illegal migration, voter fraud, and cybercrime. But this is a sales pitch for a surveillance prison. Digital ID is the essential key that unlocks: - Programmable, surveillable central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). - The framework for a social credit score system. - Predictive "pre-crime" policing and "pre-pandemic" healthcare mandates. They learned from the vaccine passport rollout. The strategy is the "carrot," not the "stick"—making compliance easy and resistance seem inconvenient. They want you digitally dependent, isolated, and connected only through the virtual world they control. But their greatest fear is our non-compliance. The power remains with us. We must build resilient, real-world lives and communities that function outside this system. The most critical first step is to say NO to Digital ID. 
• mRNA Vaccine in Animals: Shocking Stats & Consumer Risks. A recently disclosed data sheet on experimental mRNA vaccines in livestock is raising profound concerns for both consumers and agricultural producers. The findings, drawn from a study of 525 hogs, present a stark picture of potential risks. Within 21 days of administration, the live vaccine yielded alarming results: 25 animals died. 55 became severely anorexic, nearing death. 20 suffered from lameness. 12 experienced a significant loss of condition. 25 more displayed other near-death symptoms. Cumulatively, this indicates that approximately 30% of the test group either died or developed life-threatening conditions. Perhaps most alarming for public health is the post-mortem analysis: autopsies revealed remnants of the live virus vaccine persisted in the animals' tissue. This raises two critical alarms: 

• EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: State of Florida tells World Economic Forum to SHOVE IT, declines invitation to the WEF's major San Francisco summit. "The WEF's values and stated objectives do NOT align with the state of Florida, including the WEF's efforts to transform society through top-down government regulations and institute dangerous programs like digital IDs and Centralized Bank Digital Currencies," Visit Florida CEO
  @BryanDGriffin told the WEF. "We choose the values of Destin and Dunedin over Davos. Individual liberty and national sovereignty matter and should be protected."
• WOW! Fox News just absolutely stunned Sen. Jeane Shaheen (D). SHAHEEN: I haven't heard anyone in my party wanting to give illegals taxpayer-funded healthcare! FOX: I'm glad you said that. I have some tape... "Show of hands: provide coverage for illegal aliens?" EVERY DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: *Raises hand* FOX: That's literally every member of your party...from moderate to progressive. (video)

• @ExxAlerts

• ALERT: Debbie Wasserman Schultz ONCE AGAIN accused of insider trading. Records reveal Schultz purchased Stratasys Ltd on August 18th, 2025. The stock is now UP 25 % in just over 40 days.

• @visegrad24

• Just hours after a terrorist attack in the UK in which 2 Jews were murdered in front of a synagogue, there’s now an anti-Israel mob running amok in central London. (video)

• @realstewpeters

• Howard Lutnick says video tapes exist of Epstein’s clients having sex with underage girls. “He’s the greatest blackmailer ever. That’s how he got his money.” (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• FLOODED WITH TYLER ROBINSON DOUBLES - BUT NO REAL TYLER. At and around UVU during Charlie Kirk’s assassination, cameras caught multiple men who looked just like the FBI’s alleged shooter, Tyler Robinson. But not one clip shows the ACTUAL Tyler Robinson on campus that day. Not one. And if you wanted to frame a patsy? Wouldn't this be the perfect way to do it? Flood the scene with doubles, blur the truth, and let the cameras write the story. So what really happened? (video)

• @SaiKate108

• The gaslighting is off the charts. Albert Bourla keen to put it all behind him and move on to finding cancer treatments and things that people value!! Conveniently overlooking the fact that Pfizer inflicted cancer on the world. Dr Jessica Rose discusses the excessive DNA contamination found in all 32 vials tested. When these foreign DNA fragments are delivered in the billions to the inside of a cell this can induce the cGAS-STING Pathway. Which is a cancer pathway. The SV40 promoter enhancer is problematic. ‘We don’t know why it’s there… it was effectively hidden by the manufacturer which is Pfizer.’ (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Tucker Carlson: If Israel is our greatest Ally, why in the world are they Transferring US Military Technology to CHINA? Why does China have a significant stake in the Port of Haifa, Israel’s biggest port? — China's involvement in Israel's Port of Haifa is limited to the Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) operating the Haifa Bayport Terminal, a modern container terminal, under a 25-year concession (2021–2046) (video)

• @NicHulscher

• Pfizer Is a Criminal Enterprise. Their own documents reveal they were aware of 1,223 deaths within 3 months of the COVID-19 "vaccine" rollout and did absolutely NOTHING about it. A dark day for America as Albert Bourla sinks his claws into the executive branch. (video)

• @PatrickByrne

• Tina was to be moved to a federal prison, a minimum security camp where her quality of life would have been 20X, and she would not have TdA killers fighting her over a Honey Bun. Though 47 repeatedly demanded it publicly, this DOJ #2 Todd Blanche
  @DAGToddBlanche blocked it. (pic)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• PAXLOVID...Pfizer's Approved 'Antiviral' Treatment For Mild COVID Symptoms. It Contains The HIV/AIDS Drug Ritonavir As A 'Booster' To Enhance Paxlovid's 'Other Ingredients.' Package Insert Includes A Black Box Warning: "Paxlovid Leads To Severe Life Threatening Fatal Events."
  

• @EYakoby

• BREAKING: Islamists flood London streets, branding Keir Starmer a “war criminal”—just days after he recognized a Palestinian state and with a ceasefire deal still on the table. It’s never enough. For Islamists, the demand is always total submission. (video)

• @WCdispatch_

• THE WINSOME SEARS SURGE CONTINUES. The tide is turning in Virginia. A brand-new A2 Insights poll shows Winsome Sears now within the margin of error—just three points behind Spanberger, and with MASSIVE momentum on her side. Abigail Spanberger: 47.7%. Winsome Earle-Sears: 44.6%.

• @UgonnaMario

• Over 7,000 Christians slaughtered in Nigeria this year, villages burned, churches turned into killing fields. A genocide unfolding, and total silence because the victims are Christian. If it were mosques, the UN and media would be screaming nonstop.

• @1MikeFairclough

• Pfizer: $70 BILLION Deal. Pfizer is set to receive $70 billion in U.S. R&D and manufacturing incentives. Trump on Albert Bourla and the Covid 'vaccine': “He’s done a fantastic job … He’s a leader, and Pfizer is right at the top.” And yet RFK Jr. has said: “Pfizer knew they were going to kill a lot of people, and they did it anyway.” Pfizer’s Legal & Regulatory Track Record: 2009: $2.3 billion settlement (incl. $1.195 billion criminal fine) for off-label marketing & kickbacks. One of the largest in U.S. history. U.K. (Nov 2022): Pfizer’s Albert Bourla was reprimanded by the UK pharmaceutical marketing regulator (PMCPA) for making 'misleading' claims about vaccinating children. U.K. Tribunal: £69 million fine for 'excessive and unfair' pricing of epilepsy drug phenytoin (2012–16). Earlier U.K. CMA: ~£90 million in fines for price inflation practices. (And the above is just a snapshot!) 'Make America Healthy Again' (MAHA) is in tatters.

• @wideawake_media

• Ex-investment banker Catherine Austin Fitts: "If these guys get a 100% digital system with a digital ID and programmable money, guess what?" "You don't get your vaccine this month, they're going to turn off your money." "You don't transgender your kid, they're going to turn off your money." "They're going to dictate all of your health and food policies to you."
• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla: "I truly think the best days of Pfizer are ahead of us, because Covid was for me like a rehearsal." (video)

• @kacDNP91

• We gave you death, cancer, auto-immune disease, kidney failure, heart damage (the list goes on) and now we’re going to sell you more drugs, while we create more mRNA injections to use on all you guinea pigs. That’s what people are clapping for; they’re mocking you while you hold them on a pedestal. Our society is so brain damaged & weak. I’m angry, disgusted and sick over all of it. 22yr female confirmed stage 4 bladder cancer today. 2 + 1 booster taken for college and grad school. Her life is over.

• @ProjectConstitution

• ALERT: Kash Patel Dodges KEY QUESTION About Charlie Kirk’s Shooter —They Say DNA Was on a Towel… But NOT the MURDER WEAPON? Something’s Off. Why are we being shown grainy Bigfoot footage of the alleged shooter but ZERO clear shots of him carrying a rifle? Why is Kash Patel dodging the one question we all want answered — where’s the footage, the rifle, the ballistics? (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.25 +.6 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.35 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.9 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.09% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.09%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.