Monday, January 12, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • ELON JUST CALLED THE EU'S BLUFF - OPEN SOURCING X'S ALGORITHM IN 6 DAYS. @ElonMusk is making X's entire recommendation algorithm public January 17th. Every line of code showing what posts you see and why. Then updating it every 4 weeks with developer notes. This is a direct response to France classifying X as an "organized gang," the same legal designation they use for drug cartels and mafia, so they could wiretap employee phones and demand algorithm access.
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @MarcNixon24
  • @TheSCIF
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TomFitton
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @ScottPresler
  • If I wanted to commit large-scale voter fraud, I would Open the border Allow in millions of illegal aliens Give Driver’s Licenses to illegal aliens Register anyone w/ a DL to vote Mail a ballot to every registered voter Hide voter rolls from the DOJ Allow 1 voter to vouch for 8 others. Pass the SAVE Act!
  • @mattvanswol
  • An absolutely MASSIVE mural for Iryna Zarutska has just been unveiled in Los Angeles. ...truly unbelievable. Elon Musk and Eoghan McCabe kept their promise to fund these all over the country. YOU HAVE NOT BEEN FORGOTTEN IRYNA!!!!!! (video)
  • @elonmusk
  • How dumb is it that we cant pass secure voting laws when we have the House, Senate and the Presidency? -@GuntherEagleman. Suicidally dumb.
  • @redpilldispensr
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%. 
  • Gold 4,606.4 USD/t oz. -.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.1 +1.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.18% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.47% +5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.11%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.0 -.2%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .18 -9.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.31 -2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.8 -.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 126.6 +.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 +.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.3 -1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 24.8 -3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -4.6 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +31.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 311.94 +.63:  Growth Rate +15.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 488.86 +2.10: Growth Rate +19.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 64.0 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.6 +1.7% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.5% -1.6 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.19% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.67 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 72.7% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 60.7%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,286 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +5.2% 2) Gold & Silver +4.3% 3) Alt Energy +3.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DAWN, KC, BEAM, HYMC, BIOA, ZBIO, IMSR, BKKT, CDNA, ADPT, GILT, ANIP, MBX, CRWV, CMCL, LIND, GOLD, TAL, BABA, PL, IREN, HL, HMY, ALMS, XPEV, BILI, VNET, JKS, SEDG, VELO, SNCY, ANAB, RARE, PSTG, EOSE, GDS, SBSW, NEXA, LMND, AG, CDE, SUPX, PSLV, EH, WB, ERO, DXCM, BHVN, AMPX, TIGR, TPC, BIDU, CAMT, ZIM, ATRO, KGC, ENPH, U, CHWY, AXSM, FORM, AAUC, DXYZ, ISSC, SATS, UMAC, LQDA, JD, JOYY, CLPT, VST, CSTM, COHR, AKAM, TEM, PCT, CEF, RGNX, TEO, EVMN, FCX, PAAS, SCCO, CYTK, FWRG, WMT, OMDA, ANGO, UPB, MIRM, NEWT, AA, VVX, SNDK and SITE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TIGR 2) UP 3) BILI 4) CRK 5) ERAS 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ADPT 2) BABA 3) NDLS 4) CDNA 5) BEAM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) MAGS 2) XHB 3) SHLD 4) XLK 5) XLV
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BK)/1.91
  • (CNXC)/2.91
  • (DAL)/1.53
  • (JPM)/4.85 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 99.4 from 99.0 in Nov. 

8:30 am EST

  • The CPI MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3%
  • The Core CPI MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.3%.
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for Dec. 

10:00 am EST

  • Census releases Sept.-Oct. New Home Sales Reports.

2:00 pm 

  • The Federal Budget Deficit for Dec. is estimated at -$155.0B versus -$173.3B in Nov. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, 30Y T-Bond Auction, weekly API crude oil stock report, Cleveland CPI MoM for Dec., IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Jan., JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Needham Growth Conference, CJS Securities New Ideas Conference and the Evercore ISI Retail Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 +1.5
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 55.4% of Issues Advancing, 41.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.02 -35.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$72.8M
  • 195 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 68.6% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.2 -1.7
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 27.0% unch.
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 27.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US strikes Iran by June 30th 65.0% +11.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.4 -.8%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 425.75 +2.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 272.8 -.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 160.6 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (Moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.0 -5.5%
  • Vix 15.1 +4.0%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +17.1%

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @GenFlynn
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TomFitton
  • BREAKING: @FBI leadership fired no more than 138 employees ("other separations") since January 20, 2025, according to official OPM data. Of the 3,063 FBI employees who left FBI employment since President Trump came back to office, most retired (872) or quit (980). The FBI has about 35.3k employees total. (pic)
  • @RenzTom
  • @mirti55453
  • @akafaceUS
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @ElonMusk
  • “𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙞𝙨𝙣’𝙩 𝙎𝙤𝙧𝙤𝙨 𝙗𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝘼𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖?” This question pops up in my comments a lot. The answer is simple: Republicans and Democrats work with him. The references I found were not from some random academic journal. Over 30 direct mentions of Soros or his NGOs appeared in the Journal of Democracy. It's the flagship journal of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the same organization featured prominently in that widely circulated "Uniparty NGO" network diagrams below. NED is a U.S. government-funded outfit. It includes currently sitting members of Congress on its board... from both parties, not just former officials. Soros’s involvement is deep. -@DataRepublican. Soros bribes both sides
  • Same professional protestor found at 100 different protests. (video)
  • @DragonSword778
  • @FFT1776
  • @RyanRRozbiani
  • Massive Protests in Israel Against Netanyahu. Time for a Regime Change in Israel, send Netanyahu to Florida. For another week, hundreds of Israelis gathered at Habima Square to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the government, demanding judicial reform. (video)
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @MagaStormX
  • @DansForSenate
  • @kate_p45
  • @ClayTravis
  • @MarkLynchSC
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%.
  • Gold 4,589.2 USD/t oz. +2.0% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.16%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.09 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.9 -.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.17% n/a. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.42% n/a. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +1.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.5%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.74%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.