Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.7% 2) Computer Services -2.0% 3) Oil Service -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FDP, ADPT, KR, MKTX, KNX, IRTC, CME, RDNT, SATS, KB, CNMD, CBOE, NDAQ and KMX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ACI 2) KMX 3) TEVA 4) APH 5) CORZ

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KMX 2) WGS 3) RGC 4) SRAD 5) REXR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) NASA 2) ARKK 3) KRE 4) RAAX 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +4.6% 2) AI Innovation +2.3% 3) Alt Energy +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QURE, BRAI, CLPT, HQ, LZB, ARQQ, WNC, SHAZ, WOLF, ALOY, HOOD, BHVN, NAVN, NNE, USAR, RARE, PZZA, HROW, NBIS, NTLA, FIG, FCEL, CAPR, LBRX, CHRN, AKTS, SEZL, CPNG, ARWR, CXT, BBAR, ACMR, GIL, SRPT, LBRX, PTCT, SRPT, WDC, MRVL, SE, DYN, AMAT, AMR, TRVI, ASTS, GGAL, KRYS, FMC, GEV, MFG, STRO, SUPV, ASML, TGTX, PTRN, ALGM, NU, TENX, CELH, LC, AVGO, DCTH, MPLT, JANX, VSH, EMBJ, CMI, NPKI, MTRN, KRMN, SOFI, XMTR, RTX, MDA, MH and SSRM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) BHVN 3) PROP 4) QURE 5) SRPT 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QURE 2) ICCM 3) LZB 4) BTGO 5) HOOD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) SMH 3) RSPT 4) XAR 5) KOMP

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/5.15
• (BB)/.03
• (CMC)/1.72
• (DRI)/3.63
• (MKC)/.70
• (SNX)/4.12
• (WGO)/.77
• (LNN)/1.14
• (SMPL)/.36 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 225K versus 229K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1790K versus 1795K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for June is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus -.4 in May. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in April. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, (SN) annual meeting, (BJ) annual meeting, (RVMD) annual meeting, (RH) annual meeting, (OKTA) annual meeting, (WSM) annual meeting, (MBLY) annual meeting, (LEU) annual meeting and the (DAL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 unch.
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 41.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -33.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$61.5M
  
• 121 New 52-Week Highs, 45 New Lows
• 57.8% (+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.6 +.7

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch. 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 39.0% -3.0 percentage points 
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 57.0% +12.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 11.0% -1.0 percentage point 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.2 -.6%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 64.0 -6.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 96.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 447.25 +2.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 262.65 +1.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.0 +1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 17.7 +10.2%
• Vix 17.0 +3.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -3.7%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The US and Iran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on June 19 in Switzerland, paving the way for 60 days of talks aimed at ending their war for good and putting strict new limits on Iran’s nuclear program.
• The US and Iran have committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But returning normal traffic in the strait presents significant challenges. Here's what to know. 
• The US has emptied the immigration detention camp in the Florida Everglades known as Alligator Alcatraz after the state spent hundreds of millions of dollars on the high-profile jail to support Trump’s mass deportation agenda.
• HSBC says it will use Alphabet’s Google Cloud to roll out AI across its global operations, expecting each project to generate more than $100 million either in revenue or through efficiency gains.
• AI & Jobs! AI is pulling the job mkt in two directions, says latest PwC study: Cos that use AI to enhance human skills are reaping rewards, cos using AI only to cut costs are falling behind.  
• Serious changes are likely coming to the Fed with Trump pick Kevin Warsh as its chairman. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• China Revives Heavy Naval Firepower With New 155mm Gun That "Could Support An Attack On Taiwan". 
• US Holds Off Blacklisting China's DeepSeek And Other Firms: Reuters. The US has held ​off adding China’s AI startup DeepSeek, memory chipmaker CXMT and more than 100 other companies flagged as national security risks to a trade blacklist, Reuters reportedas the Trump administration tries to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing. Recall that Anthropic claimed this year it identified a campaign by DeepSeek and two other Chinese AI ​labs to illicitly extract capabilities from its Claude AI platform to improve their own models, and OpenAI warned lawmakers that DeepSeek also was targeting its models. 
• This is one of the most disturbing things I've ever read, but it perfectly encapsulates modern Ireland. As men moved to neutralise an Algerian migrant who was stabbing kids outside a creche in Dublin, women on scene locked hands to protect him. 
• New Oregon Initiative Would Criminalize Hunting, Fishing And Farming. 
• Majority Of Arrested ICE Protesters At Newark's Delaney Hall Came From Outside New Jersey.
• Radical Woke Mount Sinai Hospital Exposed: DEI, Child Sex Changes & Epstein Ties Prioritized Over Patients.
• Iranian Tankers Cross US Naval Blockade After Trump Deal Allows Iran To Restart Oil Sales.
• Exclusive: A $300 billion private fund designed to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the US-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters.
• Supreme Court Rejects Challenge To Trump's First-Term Tariff On China.
• Americans now spend 2x more time chatting with AI companions than using dating apps. And the gap is widening.
• Brazil's Supreme Court convicted Bolsonaro's son Eduardo to 4 years in prison for lobbying for father in US.
• MLB Scolds Players Who Wrote Bible Verses On Pride Night Uniforms.
• Semiconductor Stocks Tumble After Microsoft Balks At $3B Oracle Cloud Deal.
• Gavin Newsom And The DOJ Probe Opened Under Biden: Behested Payments, Family Nonprofits, & Questions Of Influence. 
• Big-Tech, Bond Yields, & Black Gold Dump Ahead Of Warsh's Big Day.                 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets cheer Iran calm as Trump eyes his next deal. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Databricks sales growth tops 80%, but margin are shrinking from swarm of AI agents.
• Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street gears up for Federal Reserve rate decision: Live updates.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
• Crude Oil 76.01/bbl. -.04% 
• Gold 4,352.80 USD/t oz. -.04%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.53 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.21 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.1 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.43% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.72% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.19%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Worries, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.19 +.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.44 +.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.1 +.6%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.8 -1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 49.7 +2.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.2 +2.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.0 -4.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -30.9 +6.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.7 -4.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.14 +.35:  Growth Rate +24.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 918.54 +5.71: Growth Rate +77.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 18.9 -.4 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 +11.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.6 +.14%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.10 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.0% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.8% -.5 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -15.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 91.0% (-2.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 74.0%(-1.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +4 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -88 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long