Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -3.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -5.1% 2) Steel -4.3% 3) Banks -4.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TSLA, SPG, CHWY, FUL, HCC, STL, CEQP, NCLH, INGR, SNDX, INOV, ALGN, TDOC, AGIO, SIX, AAL, PJT, SPR, CINF, CCL, UBSI, DAL, UAL, MGPI, EAT, TWTR, TTEK, SWK, NEO, TAP, INSG, BHE, WCC, MXL and OLN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWU 2) EMB 3) KRE 4) NOW 5) HOG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) OLN 3) ZM 4) AAL 5) SUM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +.3% 2) Internet -.5% 3) Pharma -.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KRA, NGVT, ZYXI, ABMD, AVTR, FLWS, NOW, ARCT, OSTK, AIMC, ELY and MTSI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CDEV 2) UA 3) TXMD 4) CPE 5) MTDR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) CHD 3) MMC 4) HOLX 5) MMC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +36.5% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 22.7% of Issues Advancing, 75.9% Declining
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Lows
• 14.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.6%
• Vix 34.6 +10.9%
• Total Put/Call .89 -12.8%
• TRIN/Arms .96 -21.3%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• Chinese Factory Employment Shrank in April, Beige Book Says.

• Ventilators in High Demand Are Spawning Scams Across China.

• U.S. Cases Rise 2.7%; Florida to Reopen Some Areas: Virus Update.  

• Asia Stocks Set to Track U.S. Gains; Dollar Drops. Asian stocks were primed for gains on the final day of the month after U.S. equities advanced with Treasury yields on optimism from earnings and signs of progress in treating the coronavirus. The dollar fell. Futures on equities rose in Tokyo and Sydney, with Hong Kong shut for a holiday. Nasdaq futures climbed after results from Microsoft Corp., Facebook Inc. and Tesla Inc. lifted sentiment. The S&P 500 Index earlier gained more than 2.5% to touch a seven-week high. Gilead Sciences Inc. said its experimental drug helped Covid-19 patients recover faster. Oil futures rebounded after plunging more than 25% in two sessions. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.3% as of 7:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge increased 2.7% on Wednesday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 2.1%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 2%. 

• Oil Extends Revival on Signs of Demand Pickup Amid Output Cuts.  

• Trump Poised to Unveil Bridge Loans for Ailing Oil Companies.

• Virus Impact May Extend to 57 Million U.S. Jobs, McKinsey Says.

• Powell Says More Action Needed to Shield U.S. Economy From Virus.  

• Florida to Start Reopening on Monday With Restaurants, Retail.

• Rent Is Due Again and Missing Payments Have Landlords Worrying.  

• Juul to Cut Up to 40% of Workforce in New Round of Reductions.  

• Biden Accuser Leaves Democrats Struggling to Reconcile #MeToo.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Economy Shrank at Fastest Pace Since 2008.

• The Government Economy.

• Charts: Two Months That Tore Apart the Food Chain.

• Young Doctors Struggle to Treat Coronavirus Patients: ‘We Are Horrified and Scared’.

• Gilead Drug Weighed for Worst Virus Cases.

• Partisan Fight Looms Over Voting by Mail.

• Food-Plant Workers Clash With Employers Over Safety.

• Lawsuits Mount as Bankrupt Firms Are Shut Out of Coronavirus Funds.

• With Students Stuck at Home, Parents Turn to Online Tutoring Services.

• Doctors Investigate Link Between Rare Childhood Disease and Covid-19.

CNBC.com:

• Jobless claims tally could top 30 million if new filers are close to last week’s level.

• Microsoft’s stock rises after reporting 15% sales jump, saying coronavirus had minimal impact.

• Plunge in health-care spending a big reason US economy sank in first quarter.

• Trump wants FDA to move ‘as quickly as they can’ on remdesivir coronavirus approval.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Facebook, Qualcomm, Transocean and more.

• Tesla delays Semi production and deliveries until 2021.

• Qualcomm rises after earnings, but sees 30% drop in phone shipments in future.

Fox News:

• Biden sex-assault claim gives this Clinton accuser déjà vu.

• FBI mulled interviewing Flynn 'to get him to lie,' 'get him fired,' notes show.

MarketWatch.com:             

• Tesla's Musk doubles down against coronavirus restrictions, calling it 'fascism'  

• China’s ‘re-opening’ has been rocky. The party line may start to change, this analyst says.

Zero Hedge:      

• Dr. Fauci Says He Hopes To Watch Baseball This Summer "Even If It's Only On TV": Live Updates.

• German Infection Rate Spikes After Merkel Eases Lockdown.

• The Paycheck Protection Program: Paying People Not To Work?

• Moscow Hospitals Overwhelmed As Russia Hits 100,000 COVID Cases, Surpassing Iran & China.

• JPMorgan: "If There Is Any Good News In This Report, Don’t Believe It".

• "It's A Weapon For The US" - China Official Renews Calls To Dethrone The Dollar.

• In California, New York, & Other Big States, Multi-Stage "Reopenings" Will Take Many Months To Fully Play Out.

• Facebook Shares Explode Higher After Big Q1 Beat, Warns Of "Significant" Slowdown In Last Few Weeks.

• Saks Fifth Avenue Is Latest Mall Anchor To Prepare For Bankruptcy Filing.

• Tesla Soars After Beating Expectations As It Burns Another $900MM In Cash.

• Boeing Cut To Just Above Junk, S&P Warns "Recovery Remains Highly Uncertain".

• MSNBC Attacks Trump For Using The DPA After Criticizing Trump For Not Using The DPA.

• Majority Of Canadians Think COVID-19 Vaccine Should be Mandatory, New Poll Shows.

• Gold Spikes As Fauci & The Fed Distract Stocks From Crushing Collapse In Economy.

Business Insider:   

• Car-rental giant Hertz is reportedly preparing for a potential bankruptcy after it missed lease payments.

• Off-price stores like TJ Maxx and Ross are completely shut down, and it's making things worse for desperate clothing retailers.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -5.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.79 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.11%.

• S&P 500 futures +.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.51%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (MO)/.99

• (AAL)/-2.36

• (BAX)/.74

• (CRI)/.15

• (CHD)/.77

• (CI)/4.37

• (CMCSA)/.67

• (COP)/.17

• (ETN)/1.07

• (FCN)/1.54

• (GT)/-.24

• (IDXX)/1.20

• (ICE)/1.22

• (IP)/.42

• (K)/.95

• (KHC)/.54

• (MCD)/1.55

• (TAP)/.33

• (PH)/2.26

• (SWK)/1.08

• (TPR)/-.02

• (TWTR)/.10 

After the Close:

• (AMZN)/6.23

• (AMGN)/3.75

• (AAPL)/2.26

• (CXP)/.70

• (CUZ)/.70

• (DLPH)/-.09

• (LOCO)/.10

• (EXPE)/-1.22

• (FSLR)/.41

• (FWRD)/.39

• (GILD)/1.56

• (ILMN)/1.25

• (MGM)/-.32

• (PSA)/2.57

• (RMD)/1.01

• (SYK)/1.74

• (X)/-.82

• (UAL)/-3.04

• (V)/1.35

• (WDC)/.92

• (WHR)/2.52

• (ZEN)/.06

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for March is estimated to fall -1.5% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.

• Personal Spending for March is estimated to fall -5.0% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.

• The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 3500K versus 4427K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 19476K versus 15976K prior.

• The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.7% gain in 4Q.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 37.7 versus 47.8 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Decision/Press Conference, Eurozone CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (F) fireside chat and (M) fireside chat could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by transportation and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Diminishing Coronavirus Fears, Global Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Energy/Airline Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 31.5 -6.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.33 +.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.5 -3.2%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.33 -4.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +19.0 points

• Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.45 +98.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.20 -5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 1,429.98 -1.5%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 95.50 -5.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 225.25 +5.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.50 -1.84%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 326.26 -7.31%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.57 -.26%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -1.5 basis points

• TED Spread 75.0 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 18.0 -4.25 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  121.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 58.74 +1.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .09% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 44.0 unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 80.88 USD/Metric Tonne -.98%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -117.30 -12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -239.80 -32.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +7.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.14 -1.0 basis point
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +659 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/industrial sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long