Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, US Economic Data, Tech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.1 -.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.6 +1.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.9 -.33%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.5 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +42.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -2.9%

• NYSE Arms .54 -70.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.60 +.11%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.64 -.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 360.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.44 -1.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 447.63 +27.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.63 -.22%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.3 -1.92%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 +1.5%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 42.25 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.75 basis points +7.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  145.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 127.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.58 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +2.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -74.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 129.25 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -2.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.75 +.10:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 17.2 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.58 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.26% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% -6.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.8%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 39.7%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.5%(-0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +59 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.0% 2) Software -.9% 3) Construction -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AXSM, MITK, PBF, ZIP, AMCX, MRTX, MIRM, AZPN, SYM, HIBB, CINC and ENFN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BKLN 2) TOL 3) IEP 4) THC 5) KRE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) HIBB 2) OPEN 3) CC 4) HOOD 5) UNH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +3.3% 2) Gold & Silver +2.2 3) Oil Service +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GEO, CRNC, ARWR, CEIX, NXST, NUS, RVMD, CTLT and NVAX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FIS 2) GRWG 3) FEZ 4) SABR 5) REI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CTRN 2) BILI 3) FUTU 4) NXST 5) YY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 43.1%(+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.3 +1.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,394.5 -.7%
  
• Vix 22.2 -.1%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 -1.9%
• TRIN/Arms .54 -70.8% 

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• Heavy Police Presence Thwarts Another Night of China Protests.  
• China Protesters are Using White Paper to Resist Xi’s Covid Zero.
• Shanghai Disneyland Closed on Covid Restrictions for Second Time in a Month.
• China’s Covid Curbs to Upend Commodities Demand in Peak Season.
• This Closely Watched Risk Gauge for Currencies Is Flashing a Warning Sign.   
• Asia Stocks Picture Mixed on Fed View, China Woes: Markets Wrap.   
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Oil Rises With OPEC+ Seen Considering Cuts Amid Faltering Market.
• FTX Received Some Customer Deposits Via Bank Accounts Held by Alameda.
• Crypto Lender BlockFi Goes Bankrupt in Aftermath of FTX.
• There’s a Job-Market Riddle at the Heart of the Next Recession.
  
• US Housing Enters Deep Freeze With Sellers, Buyers Sidelined.  
• Fed Officials Say More Rate Hikes Coming.  
• Car Price Divergence Hints at More Painful Inflation Ahead.   
• Looming S&P 500 Bear Case Sees 15% Drop on Fed Balance-Sheet Unwind.
  
• Snap Staff Told to Be in Office Four Days a Week Starting in February.
• Eisai, Biogen Plunge After Report of Second Death in Groundbreaking Alzheimer’s Drug Trial.
  
• Apollo Co-Founder Leon Black Accused in New Suit of Rape in Epstein Mansion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Chinese Protesters Channel Anger Directly at Xi.
• Musk’s Boring Co. Ghosts Cities Across America.
• Fighting Rages in Eastern Ukraine as Zelensky Warns of More Russian Missile Attacks.
• Houston Is Under Water Boil Advisory, Affecting Millions.
• Leon Black Accused of Rape in Lawsuit.
• BlockFi Files for Bankruptcy.
• Bloody Blue Cities. The Washington Post reports on victims of the crime surge.
• The School Board Election Revolt Continues. Challenges to union control of local school governance were often successful. 

Fox News:

• Democrats racing to finalize massive deal before Republicans break party's grip on power.
• Warning from US embassy hints at communist country's next move.

CNBC.com:

• Flu hospitalizations increase nearly 30% as U.S. enters holiday season.
• How FTX ‘death spiral’ spelled doom for BlockFi, according to bankruptcy filing.
• U.S. criticizes China’s zero Covid strategy, says Beijing needs to boost vaccination among elderly.
• Disney CEO Bob Iger addresses ‘Don’t Say Gay’ fallout, importance of LGBTQ inclusion in stories.
• Kellogg’s cereal sales are struggling again after a pandemic boom.
  

MarketWatch:           

• A recession akin to 1969-1970 awaits U.S. next year, economist warns.
  
• ‘We see major stock markets plunging 25% from levels somewhat above today’s,’ Deutsche Bank says.
  
• Stocks haven’t priced in an imminent recession. That could increase the risk of recession fears next year, says Goldman Sachs.

Zero Hedge:

• Only 28% Of Americans Are Worried About COVID Anymore; New Poll Finds.
• Apple Threatens To Ban Twitter From App Store, Won't Say Why: Musk.
• Are Progressive "Experts" Fallible? Yes, But Don't Tell Them That.
• Beijing Police Checking People's Phones For Social Media Apps Amid Mass Protests: Report.
• US Soccer Coach Apologizes To Iran Over Flag Scandal In Unprecedented Presser.
• Canadian Banks Slammed For Continued Fossil Fuel Investments.
• US Complains Russia Has Abruptly Postponed Nuclear Arms Control Talks.
• Wallowing In Welfare-Warfare State Prison.
• Goldman Prime Finds Hedge Funds Massively Piling Into Energy Stock Shorts.
• California Food Stamps Costs Soar To Record Highs (Despite Record Low Unemployment).
• WaPo Tells Americans To Eat Bugs As They Can No Longer Afford Traditional Seasonal Dinners.
• US stocks declined with risk appetite soured by China COVID protests and hawkish Fed rhetoric - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• In-House Designer For Balenciaga, Adidas Comes Under Fire Over Disturbing Social Media Posts.
• Cyclicals knocked on China protests while Fed twists the hawkish knife - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Greenwald: The Media's Deranged Hysteria Over Elon Musk's Promised Restoration Of Free Speech.
• Ron Paul Urges Separation Of Tech & State.
• Fed-Hawk Quadruple-Whammy Sends Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Lower.
• Twitter Suffers From "Ridiculous" Number Of "Psy Ops", Elon Musk Says.
• WHO Renames Monkeypox... Because Racism.

Newsmax:    

• To Avoid Shutdown, Dems May Be Forced to Rein In Spending Plans.
• Rasmussen Reports: Majority of Likely Voters Approve Probe Into Hunter Biden.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• More on the Results in Arizona’s Maricopa County – They Make No Sense.
• 22-Year-Old St. Ambrose University Basketball Player Dies Suddenly.
• BREAKING: Biden Special Counsel Smith’s Wife and Mother-in-law Connected to George Soros – Unheard of Conflicts of Interest.
• BREAKING: Maricopa County Supervisors Vote Unanimously to Certify 2022 Election.
• Thousands of Pedophiles Being Released From California Prisons Thanks to Democrat Policies.
• China Is Building The World’s Largest Quarantine Camp In Guangzhou with 90,000 Isolation Pods — This Is The World Economic Forum’s ‘Role Model’ For The Global Community.
• “If You Certify Today, The Only Thing You’ll Be Certifying Is Your Corruption” – RAV’s Ben Bergquam to Maricopa Board of Supervisors.
• IMPOSSIBLE: Maricopa County Lost 291,930 Election Day Votes? – Sock Puppet Account Claims Indies Went for Hobbs – When Dems Had Only 17% ED Turnout.

The Epoch Times:

• White House Says It Supports People’s Right to Protest in Response to Mass COVID Demonstrations in China.
• China’s Protests Over COVID Lockdowns Spread Abroad in Show of International Solidarity.

Twitter: 

• @KariLake - WOW: Poll Observer Testifies: Drawer 3 Ballots “CO-MINGLED” with Tabulated Ballots — Votes NOT Counted. (video)
  
• @charliekirk11 - A Maricopa County poll observer just testified at the Board of Supervisors hearing that at 7pm there were still 675 people waiting in line when the polls closed. Only 150 people ended up voting. 525 voters were disenfranchised at one polling place!
• @songpinganq - JUST IN - Thousands Chinese people , who are under police watching , are being forced to walk into their quarantine camp in China's Guangzhou city. (video) If your seach ''方舱航拍'' on China's TikTok, you will find tens of thousands videos about China's quarantine camps. This one is on an expressway of Yuncheng city, Shan'xi province. (video)
• @theinformantofc - This woman is called #LottaVolkova. Much acclaimed in the fashion world. She works for #BAALenciaga. We entered her Instagram. Let's see what we found.  1/10.
• @JackPosobiec - Families in a hi-rise in China were locked into their apartments as their building caught fire. Urumqi, in Xinjiang Province. (video)  The videos of the hi-rise fire that sparked the Chinese protests are horrific and criminal. Fire hoses couldn't even reach the flames due to the lockdowns. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 901,032 Reports(+3,103 from prior week) Through November 18th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.25 -3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 84.0 -2.25 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.49 +.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  47.3 +1.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.61 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.5 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (HIBB)/2.49
• (SJR)/.36
  

After the Close:

• (CRWD)/.32
• (HPE)/.57
• (INTU)/1.20
• (NTAP)/1.33
• (WDAY)/.84
  

Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a -1.32% in Aug.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Sept. is estimated to rise +10.5% versus a +13.1% gain in Aug.
  

10:00 am EST

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Nov. is estimated fall to 100.0 versus 102.5 in Oct.

Upcoming Splits

• (TECH) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, US weekly retail sales reports, Citi Basic Materials Conference, Citi Chemical Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, (EMR) investor conference, (UNH) investor conference and the Wells Fargo TMT Summit could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Diminishing Fed Pivot Hopes, Escalating China Social Unrest, Crypto Contagion Worries, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +6.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.6 -1.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.8 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.0 +1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 43.2 +3.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 +4.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.46 +19.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.4 +4.4%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.4 +3.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 449.0 +25.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.1 +2.8% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 351.66 unch.
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 142.3 +.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.2 +4.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.2 +.5%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 47.25 basis points +8.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -43.0 basis points -5.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 127.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.47 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -77.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +3.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 122.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.2 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +7.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 +3.0 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.65 -.12:  Growth Rate +11.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.3 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 -11.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.26% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.55% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 52.8%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 41.9%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.5%(-1.8 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +88 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral