Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Dissipation of Overblown AI Infrastructure Fears, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.2 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.60 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 +.7 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .3 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 -3.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(152 of 500 reporting) +12.5% +1.9 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.74 -.09:  Growth Rate +15.4% unch., P/E 22.1 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.20% -5.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(4 of 10 reporting) +26.5% -71.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.22 +.11: Growth Rate +28.0% unch., P/E 33.7 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.81 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 31.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% +.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 57.0% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 47.0%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +222 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +151 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +173 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -2.9% 2) Energy +.1% 3) Telecom +.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LSTR, TEVA, AOS, LB, AVY, DOW, TER, MSFT, MUR, CLB, CHRW, RHI, CRS, LBRT, CI, STM, CHTR, SIGI, CMCSA, NOW, SCSC, UPS, WHR and MXL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AHCO 2) UPS 3) DECK 4) TEAM 5) LUMN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRGX 2) UPS 3) CI 4) CAT 5) WHR
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLU 3) XLE 4) XOP 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +8.6% 2) Gold & Silver +4.3% 3) Homebuilding +3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OSK, ACMR, FLG, CLS, NTCT, CORT, CALX, ADTN, BWLP, OKLO, IBM, TEM, ETD, VST, LVS, DLB, IIPR, SDA, IMNM, CORZ, LITE, FLNC, KEX, CCS, NNE, LRCX, TMO, SEI, GEV, DGX, SMR, NU, ROP, DPZ, PHM, TITN, CHKP, MEOH, AAON, BABA, MOD, BIDU, WM, ANET, NXT, SNY, GH, MA, LAZ, VRNA, HMY, BC, MMYT, WDC, CP, ASML, NFG, DOV, ALGM, ANGO, TAK, GAMB and PSLV
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IP 2) PAGP 3) JNPR 4) LVS 5) TER

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TECX 2) IBM 3) ABG 4) LVS 5) OSK
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) XLV 4) XLC 5) XLI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.11
• (AON)/4.25
• (ARCB)/1.05
• (ALV)/2.88
• (BMI)/1.10
• (BAH)/1.52
• (CHTR)/9.23
• (CVX)/2.11
• (CHD)/.77
• (CL)/.89
• (ETN)/2.81
• (XOM)/1.55
• (BEN)/.53
• (GNTX)/.49
• (GWW)/9.74
• (LYB)/.72
• (PSX)/-.05
• (PIPR)/3.94
• (RBC)/2.20
• (CCI)/1.81
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 4Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.8% gain in 3Q.
• Personal Income for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.
• Personal Spending for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Nov.
• The PCE Core Price Index MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 40.0 versus 36.9 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (UGI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 -1.4
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 75.3% of Issues Advancing, 22.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.37 +77.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$247.2M
  
• 119 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
• 57.2% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.9 +2.2
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.0 -.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.3 -.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,016.9 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.9 -26.0%
  
• Vix 15.8 -4.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .63 -13.7%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Interesting poll. Downsizing government is the most popular issue by far!
  
• Children cannot consent. That is why there are laws protecting minors. Those who perpetrated this evil should be in prison for life. (pic)
• The mayor of LA is going full communist. Recall her before it is too late. (pic)
  

• @CollinRugg

• JUST IN: Billionaire Nicole Shanahan vows to fund primary challengers of 13 specific U.S. Senators who don't support RFK Jr's confirmation, calls them out by name. Good. "I will make it my personal mission that you lose your seats in the Senate if you vote against the future health of America's children." "To senators Mitch McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Bill Cassidy, Thom Tillis, James Lankford, Cory Booker, John Fetterman, Bernie Sanders, and Catherine Cortez Masto..." (video)
  

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: DHS Secretary Kristi Noem has announced she and Trump have stopped ALL GRANT FUNDING for the NGOs who are assisting in the invasion of the United States. Organizations like Catholic Charities and Red Cross received over $340 MILLION in 2024 from DHS assist illegals crossing the border. “We’re not spending another dime to help the destruction of this country.” (video)

• @JackPosobiec

• The fact that "senior US intel officials" are leaking about Tulsi Gabbard to the NYT tells you everything you need to know. She's the right person for the job. Completely inappropriate and exactly why Trump won.

• @VigilantFox
  

• NEW: Thunderous applause and chants of “We love you, Bobby!” erupt as RFK Jr.’s Senate confirmation hearing comes to an end. There is no denying that Americans want this man to be confirmed as HHS secretary. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Welp, no longer a “conspiracy theory”. Robert F. Kennedy Jr confirms US Congress is taking HUGE amounts of money from pharmaceutical companies to specifically approve SKY HIGH prices for drugs that US Taxpayers will pay for. HOW IS THIS NOT RACKETEERING??? (video)
• 220,000 able-bodied working age adults in Arkansas receive free healthcare. That is about to change. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders announces new requirement to receive free taxpayer funded healthcare for Medicaid. All “able-bodied” people have to work, “The requirement is simple. If you wanna receive free healthcare paid for by your fellow taxpayer able-bodied working age adults have to work, go to school, volunteer, or be home to take care of their kids.” (video)

• @BehizyTweets
  

• RFK Jr. just gave the Senate a mic drop. "We will make sure our tax dollars support healthy foods. We will scrutinize the chemical additives in our food supply." "We will remove financial conflicts of interest from our agencies. We will create an honest, unbiased, gold standard science at HHS, accountable to the president, to Congress, and to the American people." "We will reverse the chronic disease epidemic and put the nation back on the road to good health." (video)

• @MilaLovesJoe

• BREAKING: Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham are reportedly both a “NO” for RFK. Trump won S. Carolina by 20 points. Kentucky by 31. Both senators took an OATH to represent their constituents. They both will break their oath…again. What should be done about these two?
• Do you know that there is a “town” that was created in Texas to house illegals? Colony Ridge. There's 50,000 living there. The head of the congressional cartels task force is
  @DanCrenshawTX. He lives in Texas & is a Republican. Yet he has NEVER mentioned Colony Ridge. Why is that? (pic)
  

• @RogerJStoneJr 

• Tulsi Gabbard has served her country in combat, holds the rank of Lt. Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, and has security clearances at the highest level. The idea that @TulsiGabbard is anything but a LOYAL AMERICAN is a laughable joke and a smear—it speaks volumes to the threat she poses to the Deep State. CONFIRM TULSI.

• @Liz_Churchill10
  

• CONFIRM RFK Jr. “Fauci's a freaking demon if you ask me. If you read RFK's book, ‘The Real Anthony Fauci’…he's never been sued. This guy is a Monster. I think a lot of people out there don't realize Fauci funded the Bioweapons Research…” -Joe Rogan (video)
• Just when you think your day couldn’t get better…India suggests EXITING the W.H.O. (pic) 
• THIS is why Tulsi MUST be confirmed as the next Director of National Intelligence. ALL Biological Labs MUST be shut down. “Mitt Romney called me a Treasonous Liar when I said there was U.S.-funded, DoD-funded Biolabs in Ukraine…” -Tulsi Gabbard with Tucker Carlson. (video)
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.3 +.02%.

• China Sovereign CDS 54.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.7 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.7 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures +.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.60%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.