Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Digital Health +2.4% 2) Pharma +1.9% 3) Cyber Security +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KMSA, HIMS, HSAI, CECO, MTSR, THC, FOUR, TRS, VKTX, GPCR, CEP, OKTA, NE, CCK, SFD, VRNA, DYN, ZBRA, SBAC, CR, SEI, SHW, ATRC, CDNS, BHF, NWBI, HON, LH, DB, COCO, AWI, NVO, TWO, ABCB, AOS, OGN, CWH, SRRK, LTM, SXT and CADE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WW 2) Z 3) AMCR 4) BULL 5) KMI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) HIMS 2) CLVT 3) OMH 4) WW 5) KNSA

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) KRE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ADP)/2.97
• (CAT)/4.35
• (CHEF)/.19
• (EME)/4.63
• (ETSY)/.47
• (FSS)/.73
• (GRMN)/1.63
• (WGS)/.06
• (GNRC)/.96
• (GSK)/1.04
• (HES)/1.64
• (HUM)/10.07
• (ITW)/2.34
• (IP)/.38
• (MLM)/1.88
• (NCLH)/1.09
• (OSK)/2.05
• (PAG)/3.28
• (PEG)/1.44
• (SMG)/3.93
• (SWK)/.66
• (TW)/.86
• (VMC)/.86
• (WDC)/1.11
• (WING)/.86
• (XPO)/.66
• (YUM)/1.29
  

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.67
• (ALB)/-.65
• (ALGN)/1.99
• (ALL)/2.52
• (AVB)/2.81
• (CHRW)/1.05
• (CP)/1.04
• (CAKE)/.81
• (CGNX)/.13
• (CCI)/1.02
• (EBAY)/1.34
• (GH)/-.76
• (KLAC)/8.09
• (META)/5.23
• (MET)/2.00
• (MGM)/.47
• (MSFT)/3.22
• (MYRG)/1.20
• (PPC)/1.33
• (PRU)/3.18
• (QCOM)/2.82
• (HOOD)/.33
• (SFM)/1.55
• (RGR)/.65 
• (WH)/.82

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated at +115K versus +155K in March.

8:30 am EST

• 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +2.4% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +4.0% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +3.1% versus a +2.3% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +2.6% gain in 4Q.
• The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.9% gain in 4Q.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 46.0 versus 47.6 in March.

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
• Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in Feb. 
• Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +2.0% gain in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, Dallas Fed PCE for March, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting, (WYNN) annual meeting, (KO) annual meeting, (POOL) annual meeting, (PHM) annual meeting, (NRG) annual meeting, (OLN) annual meeting and the (MRNA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 35.4 +13.0
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 50.9% of Issues Advancing, 46.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 +19.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$180.1M
  
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 29.7% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.7 +1.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.9 +.8%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 228.2 -.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,111.0 -.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 36.0 (FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 18.4 -13.8%
  
• Vix 25.0 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -5.8%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.75 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.11%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.6 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.21% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.10%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.10%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Telecom/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.7 +3.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.44 +8.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.1 -2.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.87 +.74%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 -.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.0 +1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -20.0

• Total Put/Call .87 +7.4%

• NYSE Arms .82 -42.7%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$103.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.6 +1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 453.4 +2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 257.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.5 -.7%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.1 -1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 basis points +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 94.1 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.6 +1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 101.0 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.25 basis points +1.25 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis point -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 640.0 -3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 80.0 +5.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.13% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.21% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .8 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.2 -4.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.3 +1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(181 of 500 reporting) +17.5% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.76 +.33:  Growth Rate +12.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.41% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 420.95 +3.00: Growth Rate +21.7% +.8 percentage point, P/E 28.9 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.6 +.3
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.3% +1.0 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.26 +3.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.2% (unch.) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +201 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -2.2% 2) Oil Service -1.1% 3) Software -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JHX, CIB, SRRK, CEP, BWLP, AVTR, SMLR, FWRG, BULL, INMD and GRPN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SABR 2) ZTS 3) EQT 4) OMEX 5) PLUG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FLNC 2) RKLB 3) BBAI 4) UCTT 5) INMD

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) PPH 4) XLB 5) ARKK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume