Evening Headlines

Around X:

• @Business

• President Donald Trump said he thought a ceasefire in Gaza could be “close,” perhaps in the next week.
• President Trump said he was ending all trade discussions with Canada in retaliation for the country’s digital services tax, and threatened to impose a fresh tariff rate within the next week. "We have all the cards," he said. 
• President Vladimir Putin said Russia plans to cut defense spending, acknowledging growing strains on the budget even as he insisted that reductions would depend on winning his war in Ukraine. 
• The Supreme Court’s GOP-appointed majority gives Trump another huge win. 
• The Supreme Court’s ruling curbing the power of judges to block government actions on a nationwide basis has raised questions about whether dozens of orders that have halted President Donald Trump’s policies will stand. 
• There are plenty of downside risks in today’s market, and you might think that investors are being cavalier. But what about the upside risks? asks @JonathanJLevin.  
• Scores of congressional Democrats urge Rubio to not carry out plans to shrink the State Department workforce and end a hiring freeze.
• Donald Trump said he will pick a successor for Fed Chair Jerome Powell who wants to cut interest rates, a condition that would strike at the heart of the central bank’s independence.
• Trump wants senators working through the weekend on his megabill -- and he’s spending a rare weekend in the capital so he can crack the whip. 
• Wall Street is throwing a summer party with markets just closing out their best cross-asset advance in more than a year on receding fears of a global trade war, igniting a buying frenzy in everything from tech funds to junk bonds. 
• A group of large US banks comfortably cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test, setting the stage for lenders to boost buybacks and dividends for shareholders. 
• US health officials met with with Walmart and other retailers this week as part of an effort to help Americans get their medicines more directly from companies that make them, according to people familiar with the talks. 
• Ford temporarily idled factories in the US over the last three weeks due to a shortage of magnets containing rare earth minerals, key components embroiled in US trade tensions with China.
• A wave of big initial public offerings is building as emerging growth companies stay private for longer and bulk up their valuations through secondary stock sales
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• @Zerohedge 

• Three Big Projects Offer Hope That Our Energy Nightmare Is Ending.
• Far-Left Panic: Dark Money NGO Floods Baltimore Airwaves With Propaganda To Save Governor. 
• Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly.
• Goldman's Top 12 Charts Of The Week. 
• CDC Advisers Vote To Recommend Removal Of Mercury From Influenza Vaccines.
• "Time To Leave NYC": Kyle Bass Urges Dan Loeb To "Embrace Your Inner Texas" After Mamdani's Socialist Shockwave.
• Eggs Strengthen Muscles And Help Prevent Sarcopenia - How Many Should You Eat?
• Trump Urges Swift Action On Tax Bill As Republicans Reach Tentative SALT Deal.
• Pentagon Creates New 250-Mile Military Buffer Zone At Texas–Mexico Border.
• "Great Cities Fall To The Sound Of Cheering Crowds..."  
• *S&P 500 GAINS 0.5% TO CLOSE AT FIRST RECORD SINCE FEBRUARY.
• Stocks, Bonds, & Bitcoin Jump; Gold, Oil, & The Dollar Dumped During Dismal Data Week. 

• @MarioNawful

• PFIZERGATE: VON DER LEYEN FACES NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE OVER SECRET TEXTS. The EU’s top boss is under fire - not for policy, but for ghosting democracy. Ursula von der Leyen faces a no-confidence vote after a court ruled she illegally hid private vaccine deal texts with Pfizer’s CEO. Right-wing MEPs sparked it, but the outrage is bipartisan: centrists and greens now accuse her of sidelining parliament, gutting green laws, and quietly racking up EU debt for military spending. She’ll likely survive, but the knives are out. And this isn’t just political theater. It’s institutional rot with a corporate aftertaste.

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Tonight in Washington, D.C., construction crews are actively erecting and putting up Large anti-scale barricades around the White House and the Treasury. Any guesses what’s coming. 

• @LauraLoomer

• SCOOP: The new house @KamalaHarris has just purchased in Brentwood, CA across from OJ Simpson’s old house is worth over $30 million. It’s on a double lot and it has a canyon view and a massive gate and wall (how ironic for the Border Czar LOL). Is she trying to keep the illegals out? Or the nanny? Where did she get $30 million??? Isn’t her campaign over $20 million in debt? Wow!

• @EYakoby

• Eric Adams hits the nail on its head: “This is a city NOT of socialism. I have been to socialist countries. There is no dignity in someone giving you everything for free. There is dignity in giving you a job so you can provide for your family.”

• @bennyjohnson

• BREAKING: Food giant Nestle to remove ALL artificial dyes from their products by the end of the year. MAHA in full effect.

• @EndWokeness

• Zohran Mamdani on why he wants to empty jails: "VioIence is an artificial construct". (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Now I’m REALLY gonna blow your mind. Remember when the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago, and they posted pictures of some docs? One was dated May 9th, 2018, the exact day Trump abandoned Obama’s Iran Deal. Then, Trump confirmed the Biden DOJ were after docs about IRAN!!! Trump shared a truth from Paul Sperry alleging that Biden DOJ were looking for “info about Trump dismantling Obama’s Iran nuke deal”.

• @NicHulscher

• FBI Uncovers Possible Bioterror Plot at University of Michigan — Arrests THREE CCP-Linked Scientists. ARRESTED: Yunqing Jian — CCP-linked researcher smuggled agroterror fungus Fusarium graminearum to U-Mich lab. ARRESTED: Zunyong Liu — accomplice to Yunqing. ARRESTED: Chengxuan Han — Wuhan-based scientist secretly shipped roundworm materials to U-Mich lab. How many other universities are implicated in illegal biological activities?  (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• IT’S OFFICIAL: The Senate Democrat-appointed parliamentarian is here to stay, and she won’t be overruled. In the name of “tradition” and optics, John Thune has declined to set her aside as she strikes down numerous MAGA items from the Big Beautiful Bill. Now, GOP senators are scrambling to work around her rulings to get certain things back in…but the time to pass this bill is about here. This should’ve been handled WAY sooner. Why is a 2012 Harry Reid appointee still holding her position in a TRUMP TRIFECTA government?!

• @HustleBitch_

• #BREAKING: DEFENSE DEPT JUST BLINDFOLDED HURRICANE FORECASTERS - 3 SATELLITES KILLED BEFORE PEAK STORM SEASON. WHY? Three military weather satellites, shut down overnight. No warning. No explanation. No replacement. The only tech capable of scanning hurricane cores in real time, gone. Right before what NOAA says could be one of the most active storm seasons in years. Now? – No microwave data. – No storm intensification tracking. – No operational backup.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,139.9 +3.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 43,629.9 +3.7%

• NASDAQ 20,160.3 +3.9%

• Russell 2000 2,1761.7 +3.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,750.8 +5.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 196.2 +2.0%

• Wilshire 5000 60,724.1 +3.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,215.9 +4.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,899.1 +2.3%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 890.8 +.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 247.3 +2.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 6,172.1 +5.5%

• Transports 15,429.2 +4.7%

• Utilities 1,046.37 +1.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 144.0 +2.5%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 48.06 +3.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 224.8 +.01%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 124.9 -.36%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 557,562 +.92%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +28.9%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 919 +792

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.4 unch.

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 231,048 +20.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,938,664  -3.9%

• Total Put/Call .77 -20.2%

• OEX Put/Call .73 -27.3%

• ISE Sentiment 139.0 -8.0

• NYSE Arms .79 -41.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.9 +7.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .45 +41.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.37 +19.0 basis points 
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 -20.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .60 -45.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 17.8 -25.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.96 -.9%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 unch.

• Smart Money Flow Index 22,389.9 -1.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  81.4 -12.7

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.023 Trillion +.11%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$11.742 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.1 +5.7%

• AAII % Bears 40.3 -2.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) +8.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 298.2 -5.2%

• Crude Oil 65.4/bbl. -12.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 208.7 -10.9%

• Natural Gas 3.73 -4.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.09 euros/megawatt-hour -19.2%
  

• Heating Oil 229.9 -9.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 106.2 (1,000/metric ton) -5.2%

• Gold 3,275.6 -2.7%
• Silver 36.0 +.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 465.5 +2.3%

• Copper 506.5 +4.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 342.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.43%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,300.0 USD/metric tonne -.9%

• CME Lumber  628.5 +1.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,401.7 -1.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 336.0 USD/Short Ton +1.1%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.9% -.5 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.0 +7.3 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.37 +17.9%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 228.0 -8.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 unch. 
  
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $180.0 Billion($1,118.01 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +2.2% +.8 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 280.17 +1.66:  Growth Rate +10.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 21.9 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.27% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 445.08 +11.74: Growth Rate +19.2% +3.2 percentage points, P/E 33.2 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.3 +13.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.7 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.1 +1.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 18.6%(+4.1 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 81.4%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30

• US Dollar Index 97.47 -1.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,849.98 +.79%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 106,564.5 +7.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 190.50 +.68%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +2.1%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 53.5 +7.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.28% -9.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.615 Trillion -.29%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.519 Billion +22.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.62 -2.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.9 +3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 88.0 -10.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.5 -3.8%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.25 -4.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 152.3 -3.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.8 -18.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.3 -5.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.15 +.89%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% +10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.64% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.55 -15.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -8.0 basis points -11.0 basis points 
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 +1.75 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.7 -6.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 218.0 +4.5% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 220.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.6 -5.6%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 133.6 -6.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 161.0 -4.8%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 599.0 -1.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .55 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.5% +10.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,468.5B -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,000 -.31%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.5 -.47%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.86% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 250,800 +1.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% -.2 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% -9.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $231.2M +43.5%

• Nationwide Gas $3.21/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,553.0 -8.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,982.6/40 ft Box -9.0%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,369.3 +2.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.8 -2.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 257,673 -1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,930,370 +15.1% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 51.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +4.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.3%

Leading Sectors

• Electrification +10.4%

• Networking +8.9%
• Airlines +7.3%

• AI Innovation +6.8%
  

• Semis +6.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -.9%
  

• Gold & Silver -2.3%
  

• Energy -4.0%

• Oil Service -4.3%
  

• Education -5.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (44)

• WFF, MKE, MRC, SATS, KTOS, NEON, IREN, DNOW, POWL, JHX, PGY, UNFI, AEVA, TBPH, DKS, ARM, CAE, EXAS, SPIR, GEV, DAVE, G, APEI, BA,  EXAS, ENVA, GEV, CCL, HWM, RYI, CUK, BLCO, AS, SOFI, STLA, GTLS, RCL, VST, NRG, SLP, NX, M, GE, FLS, CPNG and FDX

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (6)

• KYMR, LZMH, PPTA, MP, USAR and CRMD

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change