Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Mid-East Peace Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.38 +.05%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% -4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.95% -3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.1 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 10.9 +.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +15.9% -.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 293.54 +.28:  Growth Rate +12.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 489.29 -.14: Growth Rate +20.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 33.1 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .73 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.6 -.1
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.9% +.6 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 33.9% -.9 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% -12.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.76 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 10th FOMC meeting: 68.2% (+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th meeting: 53.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 4.0-4.25%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +204 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.4% 2) Oil Service -1.6% 3) Shipping -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RGTI, BWLP, CUK, CRNX, CCL, BBOT, PGY, UPST, SOC, CART, MENS, FORD, ARCT, AUPH and EPSM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BYND 2) EA 3) AS 4) TLRY 5) INDA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MLTX 2) FLYE 3) WSM 4) BYND 5) VFC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XBI 3) XHB 4) FDN 5) IYW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +4.5% 2) Computer Hardware +3.7% 3) Electrification +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ENTA, BKKT, MRUS, ORKA, BCAX, GRAL, THS, SNDK, CLSK, MARA, DNA, BETR, EOSE, MNMD, ADUR, HOOD, SUPX, IREN, QURE, ARQT, OPRA, LENZ, PONY, HBM, MUX, CIFR, WDC, OKLO, SA, OPRX, NTGR, RVMD, ORIC, ERO, TECX, COCO, LUCK, PL, FCX, ZBIO, ETON, APP, CENX, CDTX, SHOP, K, VCEL, EQX, EA, GSAT, LTBR, GFS, SION, SPHR, ACN, BVN, BABA, BMNR, MU, SMLR, AUGO, STX, SEI, CLF, LI, CRDO, TKO, IAG, HROW and CLF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACB 2) MLTX 3) CENX 4) HBM 5) CYTK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARLP 2) ETSY 3) ORKA 4) AREC 5) TLRY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLE 3) AIQ 4) CQQQ 5) PTF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LW)/.54
• (PAYX)/1.20
• (UNFI)/-.18 

After the Close: 

• (NKE)/.27

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for July is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.2% decline in June.
• The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for July is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.25% decline in June. 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 43.5 versus 41.5 in Aug. 

10:00 am EST

• The JOLTS Job Openings for Aug. is estimated to rise to 7200K versus 7181K in July.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Sept. is estimated to fall to 96.0 versus 97.4 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, Dallas Fed Services Activity for Sept., API weekly crude oil stock report, (BSX) investor day, (GIS) annual meeting, (SSYS) annual meeting, Jefferies Healthcare Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 -.6
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 41.9% of Issues Advancing, 56.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +46.8% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$132.1M
  
• 109 New 52-Week Highs, 38 New Lows
• 60.1% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.1 -1.3

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 83.9 -2.7%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 325.5 unch. 
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.0 +.1%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 166.0 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52 (NEUTRAL) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -8.4%
  
• Vix 16.1 +5.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .71 -7.8%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business 

• Even if the guns fall silent in Ukraine, Russia may never step off the battlefield. Vladimir Putin's war machine has become an integral part of the economy. 
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to have a crucial meeting with President Donald Trump on Monday amid assertions from Washington that an ambitious plan to end the war in Gaza is nearly complete.
• The US and European powers urged Iran to return to the negotiation table and comply with nuclear inspectors after United Nations sanctions snapped back into place. 
• OPEC+ will likely raise oil output again in November as the group continues its strategy to reclaim global market share, people familiar said.
• The meeting will be the first between Trump and Democratic leaders ahead of the funding deadline.
• The funds will support electrification, modernize power grids, and improve access to renewables.
• Wall Street’s most powerful collection of stocks, the Magnificent Seven, is looking a tad dated. Make way for the Great Eight, the Golden Dozen or the TenAI of GenA.
• Investors are piling in to exchange-traded products, betting that stock-market volatility will increase. But their returns are dwindling during their wait for market gyrations. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @Zerohedge  

• Good god. The Swiss people just approved digital IDs. Australia implemented them in Dec. UK last week. In all 3 nations, deep state-allied politicians are behind them. This is a digital ID/censorship emergency. Please share and reply below with info about other nations. -@shellenberger
• THIS IS: Christopher Wray’s confidential human source, James Ehren Knowles, who infiltrated the Proud Boys, is leading Pelosi’s staged insurrection in the Capitol garage on January 6. (video)
• Oklahoma Overrun With Chinese-Operated Marijuana Farms. 
• The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world a 3% inflation target was Trump's idea.
• Trump's 21-Point Plan For Ending Gaza War Revealed For First Time. 
• Tracking Your Steps (And Privacy).
• DEVELOPING: Multiple victims reported in shooting at 'The Hideout,' a private recreational community in Lake Ariel, Pennsylvania. 
• Disgraced Andrew McCabe is now panicking and trying to distance himself from James Comey by saying he never saw him authorize anyone to leak information. Everyone close to Comey is now getting as far away from him as possible. This is pure panic.
• Henry David Thoreau & The Well-Worn Road To Serfdom.
• Democrats Rage, Leftist NGO Mobilizes After ICE Arrest of Iowa's Top School Superintendent. 
• At Least 1 Dead, 9 Wounded After Shooting At Michigan Church.
• Meandering Through Narratives.
• Eric Adams Drops Out Of NYC Mayoral Race.
• U.S. Preparing Possible Drone Strikes On Drug Cartels Inside Venezuela.
• John Mearsheimer On Trump Passing The Buck To Europe.
• IDF Controls Over Half Of Gaza City Less Than 2 Weeks Into Offensive.
• Iran Furious Over Snapback Sanctions, Recalls Envoys From Germany, France & UK.
• Trump Did Not Shift To A Hawk, But Is Washing His Hands Of The Ukraine War.
• UK Goes Orwellian With Mandatory Digital ID And Biometric Tracking.
• You will never guess what happens next.

• @CNBC

• JD Vance ‘confident' the U.S. has 'successfully separated' TikTok from China parent company ByteDance
  .
   
• 5 takeaways from CNBC’s investigation into 'nudify' apps and sites.
• Trump is wielding the power of the state to back critical mineral companies. These are the possible next targets.
• Asia markets set for mostly higher open; Australia central bank starts two-day policy meeting.
• Stock futures are flat in overnight trading following a losing week: Live updates.

• @WSJ.com

• The Musk-Zuckerberg tech rivalry—once headed to the Colosseum for a cage fight—could be one for the ages thanks to AI and robotics.
• Exclusive: Chinese leader Xi Jinping is planning to press his American counterpart to formally state that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan’s independence.
• Top hedge-fund recruits are getting hounded with job offers that would pay them like Hollywood stars or pro athletes. So why don’t they also have agents representing them? That’s the idea Ryan Walsh had about a year ago when he launched a talent agency. 
• Walmart executives aren’t sugarcoating the message: Artificial intelligence will wipe out some jobs and reshape its workforce.

• @GatewayPundit

• Major Study Reveals Left-Wing Terrorism Now at 30-Year High — Far Outpacing Right-Wing Extremism.
• Kamala Harris Rages at Black Caucus Gala — Attacks ‘Unhinged’ Trump, Republicans and Incites Leftist Violence: “We MUST Fight FIRE with FIRE!”
• Alleged Mormon Church Shooter Identified — 42 Yr-Old Military Vet — Reportedly Has “ANTI-Trump/Pence” Sign on Fence Attached to His Garage.
• THE WORST: Keir Starmer Now the MOST UNPOPULAR British Prime Minister in Recorded History.
• Bill Gates Named in Epstein Files—Democrats Stay Silent.

• @FoxNews  

• BREAKING: Two more victims found dead in the church in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan, bringing the death toll to four.
• Three people died and at least six others were injured after a gunman fired shots from a boat into a restaurant in Southport, North Carolina. 

• @MarioNawful

• HILLARY CLINTON: BIDEN HAD US ON THE RIGHT PATH, WHITE MEN ARE THE PROBLEM. "We fought a civil war over part of it. People have been protesting for hundreds of years that things are not as they should be given our ideals and how we should move towards them. The idea that you can turn the clock back and recreate a world that was dominated by white men is just doing such damage to what we should be aiming for. We were on the right trajectory."
• INTERVIEW MIKE BENZ: “EMAILS SHOW BARAK, EPSTEIN & PRINCE ANDREW WORKING TOGETHER”. Mike Benz reveals leaked emails exposing a joint relationship between former Israeli PM Ehud Barak, Jeffrey Epstein, and Prince Andrew, including attempts to launch a security venture in China. (video)
• SOUTHPORT MASS SHOOTING: 9 SHOT, 3 DEAD. Reports say 9 people were shot after a gunman opened fire from a boat at the American Fish Company restaurant. 6 are injured and 3 have died. The attack sparked chaos at the Southport Yacht Basin. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• UVU CIA SPY SCHOOL PROFILES ERASED AFTER THE ASSASSINATION. Rusty Needs, a former CIA officer and professor in Utah Valley University’s Center for National Security Studies (CNSS), had his staff profile online until after September 24th. Then it disappeared. And get this: the last post on UVU’s National Security Society Facebook page was on 9/10. The exact same date Charlie Kirk would be assassinated years later. The topic? “The Ethics of CIA Detention and Drone Operations.” He wasn’t alone. Six others tied to CNSS or campus security have just vanished from the Utah Valley University site too. CNSS is UVU’s pipeline into the CIA, NSA, and FBI...a recruiting ground for future spies and intelligence operatives. And right after the assassination, names are mysteriously being erased. Does this sound normal to you?

• @Artemisfornow

• Well this isn’t terrifying at all. Here’s Blair talking to Oracles Larry Ellison. "Citizens will be on their best behavior because we're constantly watching & recording everything that's going on." Now you can see why Starmer is so keen on digital ID. (video)

• @ProjectConstitu

• Candace Owens Says Tyler Robinson Narrative is a TOTAL LIE — Deep State in PANIC MODE. That She Has RECEIPTS That Could DESTROY the Feds by Monday. This is HUGE. Check Out My Buddy @realjesseonfire video about the BOMBSHELL revelation Candace Owens just dropped that's so EXPLOSIVE it’s got INTELLIGENCE agencies and STATE ACTORS scrambling to SHUT HER DOWN before Monday. We’re talking ANDREW BREITBART levels of DANGER here — the kind of info that makes people “HAVE A HEART ATTACK” before they can GO PUBLIC.

• @BrotherRasheed

• Christians in Nigeria never carried out massacres, never dug tunnels, never fired rockets, never took hostages, never started a war. They are simply a peaceful community, half of Nigeria’s population, who only wanted to live in peace. Yet they are relentlessly attacked by Islamic groups: their churches burned, their women and children slaughtered, their men massacred simply for being Christians. And what is the response of the world? Silence. World leaders in Europe stand with those who massacre, with those who hold hostages—they rush to recognize a state for them. But when it comes to Nigerian Christians? Not a word. No speeches at the UN. No condemnation of Nigeria for failing to protect its Christians. No ICJ cases. No international fundraisers.

@newstart_2024 

• European MP Christine Anderson issues a stark warning: the pieces are being moved into place for a system of total human control, disguised as progress. The agenda? Less autonomy, more automation, and ultimate authority for the powerful. In a recent interview, Anderson connected the dots between several key initiatives. She identified the COVID pass as a "test balloon"—a deliberate maneuver to acclimate the public to presenting a QR code for basic freedoms. The next phase, she argues, is the push for "15-minute cities." Don't be fooled by the promise of convenience or environmentalism. Anderson asserts their true purpose is to create the infrastructure for "climate lockdowns." By legally confining residents to designated zones, authorities could restrict movement to a handful of permitted excursions per year. This system, she warns, would create a two-tiered society. The wealthy could potentially buy additional "passes" to travel freely, while the less affluent are permanently locked within their 15-minute neighborhoods. (video)
• Feb 2024 - A startling exchange in a Tennessee legislative hearing has exposed a looming frontier in pharmaceutical delivery: edible vaccines hidden in everyday produce. Lawmakers grilled officials on the consumer safety nightmare of unlabeled vaccines in lettuce and tomatoes. The testimony revealed that universities, including UC Riverside and UC Berkeley, have already "perfected" the technology to embed human vaccines into common vegetables. Even more alarming, the expertise of "big tobacco" firms is reportedly being leveraged to do the same with tobacco products. The core issue, as framed by the legislators, is a fundamental violation of informed consent. Under current proposed law, a head of lettuce on a grocery store shelf could be an unregulated pharmaceutical product. The consumer would have no way to distinguish between food and medication. This raises critical, unanswered questions:
• Fertilizer costs are deliberately inflated, while domestic funding is stripped and redirected overseas. The justification? A manufactured "climate crisis," absurdly pinpointing livestock as a primary culprit. Meanwhile, a glaring contradiction emerges: the world’s largest landowners champion a dystopian food future of insect protein and lab-grown substitutes. The agenda is clear: 1. Seize control of the food supply at its source. 2. Eradicate the independent farming industry, piece by piece. 3. Ensure family farms are lost forever through punitive measures like inheritance tax. The ultimate goal is control. No farmers means no real food. And when you control the food, you control the population.
• CDC Whistleblower's Secret Recording: "We Buried the Data" on MMR & Autism, "I'm Completely Ashamed". The moment that shattered the narrative. In 2014, Dr. Brian Hooker secretly recorded a senior CDC scientist, Dr. William Thompson, who made an admission that should have changed everything. On those recordings, Dr. Thompson freely confessed to a massive cover-up. He admitted that he and his senior associates at the CDC had buried the damning data showing a statistical link between the MMR vaccine and autism. (video)

• @theinformant_x

• On Saturday, September 27, 2025, at approximately 9:30 p.m. ET, a gunman on a white center console boat approached the American Fish Company restaurant at Southport Yacht Basin in Southport, North Carolina, and opened fire on patrons. The assailant fled by water and remains at large. At least three people were killed and six injured, though the exact casualty count is still unconfirmed. Emergency teams, including Southport Police, Brunswick County Sheriff's Office, and the Coast Guard, responded swiftly to the waterfront scene along the Intracoastal Waterway. (video)

• @EYakoby

• BREAKING: Islamists have completely taken over Niagra falls, setting off smoke bombs and calling for a global intifada. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• Why President Trump has the US Navy offshore from Venezuela right now is due to a variety of factors, among them are the Voting systems the Venezuelans perfected to help steal elections around the world on behalf of select intelligence agencies and certain nation-states.

• @WarClandestine

• The Dems/MSM are claiming that Portland is completely peaceful and that there is no need for Trump to send troops to the ICE facility. Meanwhile, in reality, this is what the ICE facility in Portland goes through almost every night. The Dems/MSM are defending these people… (video)

• @RyanMattaMedia

• We want to see every CCTV from Utah Valley University on the day Charlie Kirk was shot. According to the affidavit of probable cause, “Investigators were able to track Tyler’s movements on the UVU campus. Starting at approximately 11:50am.” This is exactly what we would like to see for starters. (video)

• @its_The_Dr

• This is why Nancy Pelosi didn’t want Trump to call in the National Guard, because if he had done that he would have found out there was 274 Agents deployed in the crowd and would have easily been able to Prove it was a setup! “We have been used as pawns in a political war.” (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Jordan Peterson warns that digital ID will usher in a tyrannical regime "so 100% complete that it would make George Orwell's 1984 look like a picnic". "If a traffic camera catches you jaywalking in China... the digital ID system... will convict you of jaywalking... take money out of your bank account... and reduce your social credit score." "If your social credit score falls below a certain level, then you can't buy drinks from a vending machine... You can't go on a train. You can't get out of your 15-minute city." (video)
• Bill Gates applauds India's "digital public infrastructure"—a fusion of biometric digital ID, bank accounts and payment systems—as "foundational" for monitoring people's health records, keeping tabs on farmers, and addressing "climate problems". (video)

• @shellenberger

• We need digital IDs to halt migration, increase efficiency, & safeguard data, they say. But border control does not require digital IDs and centralizing data is a hacker's dream. The real reason they want digital ID is for billions in fees and the control of our behavior.

• @C_3C_3

• Perhaps the most absurd January 6th lie… Cassidy Hutchinson claims POTUS Trump grabbed the steering wheel of the beast in rage. She’s clearly lying under oath. We have the texts of her and Liz Cheney setting up a call to create the lie. Lock them up. video)

• @Artemisfornow

• The UN Agenda 30 relies on full compliance with Digital ID. It will be able to determine where you go, what you buy and how much you spend. That’s why they built the backend before they told you. (video)
  

• @DC_Draino

• Over 7,000 Christians slaughtered in Nigeria and over 100 churches destroyed every month. This is a genocide. (video)

• @Bubblebathgirl

• Zohran Mamdani says rich people leave NYC at lower rates than poor people and implies he’ll raise taxes on rich people to pay for communism. He’s lying. Mayors can’t raise income taxes, only states can. And no amount of taxes will make communism work. Mamdani is a scam artist. (video)

• @HealthRanger

• ANALYSIS: In case you haven't been tracking the tech in energy storage, sodium-ion batteries offer such extraordinary improvements over lithium-ion that they are going to put lithium battery manufacturers out of business worldwide (including in South Korea, where a lot of lithium batteries are currently made). The undisputed leader in sodium-ion battery tech is a company called CATL. It's a massive, $50 billion-a-year manufacturer based in China...

• @iAnonPatriot 

• BREAKING. Jimmy Kimmel’s ratings have plummeted 70% since returning 3 days ago.

• @WurzelRoot

• This is Brilyn Hollyhand's 9/10/2025 appearance on Fox News at 2:56 MT. That is 1 hour after Donald Trump announced Charlie Kirk had been pronounced dead, at 1:40 MT. "More energized than ever to carry on the torch!" At least he is in positive spirits! (video)

• @SamanthaTaghoy

• No wonder Tony Blair wants Digital IDs… when his son is the owner of the company that’ll be paid £100 billion to develop and monitor them. And ol’ Tony has £375 million worth of shares in the company, too.

• @PeterBernegger

• How corrupt @dominionvoting has been: read all 31 pages of the sworn testimony of one Venezuelan whistleblower. Link below. SURPRISE ENDING. The transcript has been filed in federal District Court - Colorado. Votes can be flipped, injected, deleted without a trace! Over a dozen whistleblowers have flipped now, from Serbia and Venezuela.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.97 +.07% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.2 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.16% -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.4 -.5%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.
• S&P 500 futures +.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.