Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Bursting Metals Bubble, Less Dovish Fed Speculation, Technical Selling, Commodity/Tech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -67 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APTV)/1.85
• (IDXX)/2.93
• (TSN)/.95
• (DIS)/1.57 

After the Close: 

• (ASH)/.24
• (DVA)/3.24
• (FN)/3.25
• (MTG)/.75
• (NXPI)/3.31
• (PLTR)/.23
• (SPG)/3.48
• (TER)/1.36
• (WWD)/1.65 

Economic Release 

9:45 am EST

• Final Global US Manufacturing PMI for Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to 48.5 versus 47.9 in Dec.
• ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 59.0 versus 58.5 in Dec. 

3:00 pm EST

• US Treasury Quarterly Borrowing Estimates.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Loan Officer survey, OPEC meeting and the Oppenheimer Emerging Growth Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Reopens Airspace Over Venezuela, Restores Direct US Flights After 5+ Years.
• Trump says his pick for Federal Reserve chair "won’t be too surprising. A lot of people think this is somebody that could’ve been there a few years ago." 
• And less than an hour later Warsh is at 83%, on a journalist tweet that "Trump is leaning toward KEVIN WARSH to replace Jerome Powell, I'm told."
• Education Department Warns California To Halt Secret Gender Transitions Of Kids.
• *TRUMP SAYS US TO DECERTIFY ALL AIRCRAFT MADE IN CANADA.
• *TRUMP: REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS HAVE COME TOGETHER TO FUND GOVT *TRUMP: REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS TO FUND MOST OF GOVT UNTIL SEPT.
• Dem messaging today: Walz publicly fantasizing about a Civil War. Krasner says hunt down federal law enforcement like Nazis. Jeffries says a cabinet secretary needs to be “put on ice permanently.” (video)    
• kara swisher and her eunuch think people who disagree with them belong in prison. this is a growing trend on the mentally ill left, which is a growing segment of the DNC. they’re not kidding. if the dems regain power, we’re getting the kind of nazi shit they say we have today. 
• BREAKING: Psycho leftist nurse in Florida Erik Martindal just had his LICENSE REVOKED after he promised to never give anesthesia to Republicans. NOT. IN. FLORIDA! AG JAMES UTHMEIER: "Effective today, Erik Martindale is no longer a registered nurse in Florida. Healthcare is not contingent on political beliefs, and we have zero tolerance for partisans who put politics above their ethical duty to treat patients with the respect and dignity they deserve."
• BREAKING. Congressman Bryan Steil (R-WI) has introduced an election integrity bill — the “Make Elections Great Again (MEGA) Act.” MEGA would require: Photo voter ID. Require paper ballots. Preserve election records. Abolish universal vote by mail. Remove ineligible voters from rolls. Limit possession of mail-in ballots. Require barcode tracking for mail-in ballots. Prohibit political activities in federal agencies. Ban Ranked Choice Voting in federal elections. Use HAVA funds for post-election audits of results. Require information sharing with Attorney General. Require proof of citizenship to register to vote by mail. Require to notify state election officials of non-citizens summoned for jury service. This is one of the most comprehensive & consequential election reform bills in American history. It’s basically the “If I waved a magic wand & were able to deliver every reform to secure our elections” Act. Let’s MAGA with MEGA. 
• *ELON MUSK’S SPACEX IS SAID TO CONSIDER MERGER WITH TESLA OR XAI.
• TRUMP SAYS WITKOFF HAS 'GOOD NEWS'.
• Ghislaine Maxwell Cites Dozens Of Men In Alleged Epstein 'Secret Settlements'.
• Poll Finds New England Women Feel Misled About Climate Policies.
• *TREASURY SAYS YUAN 'SUBSTANTIALLY UNDERVALUED' *US CALLS ON CHINA TO ALLOW YUAN TO STRENGTHEN IN TIMELY MANNER.
• *SANDISK TO PAY KIOXIA $1.165B FOR AVAILABILITY OF SUPPLY.
• HHS Responds To Criticism From Vaccine Companies. 
• Bitcoin Battered As Everything Else (Ex-MSFT) Bounces Back From Early Bloodbath.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: iPhone drove Apple's robust earnings — but investors weren't too enthused.
• Trump says he will announce a replacement for Powell as Fed chair Friday morning.
• Asia-Pacific markets open mostly higher after Trump backs deal to avert shutdown.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Elon Musk's $20 billion spending plan signals 'Tesla of yesterday is gone'.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after index posts second losing day: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Apple, Robinhood, Visa, Sandisk and more.     

• @TheTranscript 

• $AAPL CEO: Memory inflation expected to impact margins in Q2: “Memory had a minimal impact on the Q1, so the December quarter gross margin. We do expect it to be a bit more of an impact to the Q2 gross margin...we do continue to see market pricing for memory increasing significantly."
• $AAPL CEO: "Greater China was up 38% YoY. It was driven by iPhone, where we set an all-time revenue record. It was the best iPhone quarter in history in Greater China. It was driven by customer enthusiasm for the iPhone 17 lineup. During the quarter, traffic in our stores in China grew by strong double-digit year-over-year. It was a terrific quarter."
• Apple CFO: "During the Dec quarter, our record business performance & strong margins led to EPS growth of 19%, setting a new all-time EPS record. These exceptionally strong results generated nearly $54B in OCFs, allowing us to return almost $32B to shareholders" $AAPL: +2% AH.

• @MarioNawful

• MASSIVE U.S. AIR SURGE TO MIDDLE EAST: TANKERS, GROWLERS, F-35s, AND A NUCLEAR SNIFFER. Four Pegasus tankers for extended refueling, six Growlers for electronic warfare, six F-35A stealth fighters, nine C-17 heavy transports, and a WC-135R Constant Phoenix to detect nuclear activity. All of this in the past 24 hours alone.

• @realLizUSA

• The Democrats are all saying the raid on Fulton County is “interfering” with the midterm elections. They’re right. Exposing the fraud in our elections will interfere with their ability to steal the midterms. They’re all but admitting they cheat. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — November 4, 2020, Admitted Trump won the state of Georgia, and it was impossible for Biden to Regain the lead. “We have about 2% left to go. As you can see where we are right now, it will not change the outcome.” NBC immediately cut his feed and went on to say the remaining counties were democratic counties. The only problem… the remaining 2%, even if Biden got 100% of the vote in those counties (impossible and Raffensperger admitted it) wouldn’t be enough to win. But, a “water main break” and 1am ballot counting later allowed Biden to win by 11,000 votes. (video)
• Tucker Carlson reveals the Offer the Trump Administration made to Minnesota Officials that hasn’t been made public yet — MN Officials said no. 1. Local Police have to answer 911 calls from federal agents —— as of now, if an agent is in danger and requests assistance, they don’t get it. 2. Local Police has to work to protect Federal law enforcement from being killed when they’re off duty 3. The jails have to tell the federal government where the pedophiles and rapist are, and hand them over 4. If officials do that, the vast majority of Federal law enforcement will be pulled from Minnesota, but remain to protect Federal assets The response from Minnesota officials was “NO, we’re not doing that.” This is proof that what you’re witnessing in Minnesota is the beginning of a Color Revolution. (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Tim Walz tells every American to stop looking at just the fraud in Minnesota because it "happens everywhere". "This 'fraud' thing happens in EVERY STATE!" Is he serious?! RESIGN NOW! Put him under criminal investigation, HE KNEW. (video)

• @ScottPresler

• With Senator Mike Lee sponsoring the SAVE Act, 46 Republican Senators have now signed on as cosponsors to the bill. Don’t stop until it’s on President Trump’s desk!

• @cosminDZS

• EXCLUSIVE: Recently leaked anti-ICE protest donation records MATCH THE NAMES OF CANADIAN ELECTED OFFICIALS who are quietly sending funds to fuel the chaos in Minnesota.

• @Govt_Acct_Inst

• A Chinese spy literally designed the EB-5 visa program in the 1990s. Her name was Maria Tsai, and a Senate committee exposed her years later. Now 90% of people getting permanent residency through this program are Chinese nationals who don't even live here—but they CAN donate to U.S. political campaigns. Tens of millions flowing into our elections. 80% goes to Democrats. This is what bought influence looks like. (video)

• @Badhombre

• It has been 70 days since Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick was indicted for stealing $5 million in FEMA funds. Our Republican House majority has still not expelled her.

• @ElonMusk

• BREAKING: Grokipedia has started to outrank Wikipedia on Google search results. The downfall of Wokipedia has officially begun. Grokipedia is inevitable.

• @BarnettforAZ

• Wow. @realDonaldTrump just posted this. Stuff we have known for a long time for those that have been in the election integrity fight. It’s all finally coming out. (pic)

• @KylieJaneKremer

• Everyone should be watching Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger, Chris Carr, Gabriel Sterling, Jordan Fuchs, and the rest of Georgia’s RINOs political establishment very closely. A lot of people assume Democrats were solely responsible for what happened in 2020. But many Republicans played a central role too, driven by their hostility toward Trump and the disruption he brought to the old party order that has dominated Georgia politics for decades. Do not expect this to wrap up neatly. Things are almost certainly going to get messier before the full truth comes out about the 2020 stolen election.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
• Gold 5,222.8 USD/t oz. -2.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.04 -.53%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.4 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.5 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% +4.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.61% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.71%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.36%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.51%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Tech Earnings Outlook Jitters, Escalating US/Iran Tensions, Crypto Plunge, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 +.8%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .17 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.6 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.8 -.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +12.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.6 +10.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.9 +1.0 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(141 of 500 reporting) +17.5% -2.9 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 314.28 +.21:  Growth Rate +16.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.14% +4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +20.9% -19.3 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 492.90 +.17: Growth Rate +20.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.7
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 unch.
• US Yield Curve 67.25 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.9 +.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% -1.2 percentage points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.23% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.31 +13.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 70.5% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 47.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -165 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +240 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -5.9% 2) Gold & Silver -3.6% 3) Gambling -3.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EXP, ALM, BC, KLAR, AG, CNMD, CRS, SKE, KGC, KEX, ADSK, APPF, SBSW, ALM, KGC, DXYZ, IP, STM, TSCO, AG, SCZM, IOT, GFI, CRWD, COIN, ETD, AGI, QTWO, CDNS, HLI, EQX, ALKT, CRM, WHR, IAG, AI, BL, HMY, ATGE, INTU, SNOW, WDAY, WK, BRZE, MP, SATS, AU, SAIL, UEC, RBRK, TYL, SAIL, MDB, UUUU, DRD, FIGR, ORLA, FSLR, USAR, MSTR, PEGA, TEAM, MSFT, HUBS, NOW, LEU, KVYO, AAOI, HYMC, CALX, LVS, CLS, LC, URI, SAP, VELO, CRML and JOBY

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TRIP 2) BRZE 3) XRX 4) GTM 5) KOS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) JOBY 2) VRNS 3) CLS 4) MSFT 5) URI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) FTEC 3) XLK 4) FDIS 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.7% 2) Computer Services +2.0% 3) Airlines +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LUV, MOD, LBRT, TAL, MAN, VIAV, RCL, INOD, DLX, BKD, META, AMPX, NCLH, ALGM, PLXS, CCL, EVMN, CUK, TT, HXL, UCTT, VIRT, PUMP, ERO, LMT, SUPX, AOS, FTK, CHRW, HAFC, VFC, GRRR, SCCO, BKV, RCI, CP, VSEC, INMD, JMIA, BFH, DNTH, BIPC, SEI, VIK, OFG, RGNX, XPRO, NGL, OFG, NUS, HON, LAZ, CNXC, NE, APP, LYFT, LAND, AMP, IDR, HIMS, EPR, LYFT, CEPT, LQDA, SMG, MA, PH, APA, HCC, PR, CTRA, VLO, SNDK, PHM, VLO, ALGT, TIPT, SIGI, CVE, TALO, LFUS, OVV, TECK, AMTM, T, CNX, COP, APH, AVT, CVNA and EQNR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NNDM 2) KOS 3) SGMO 4) VIAV 5) TRIP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LUV 2) LBRT 3) VIAV 4) META  5) TAL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) COPX 3) GDX 4) KRE 5) XLE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume