Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.5% to -1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.5 +2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 48.25 +2.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%. 
• Crude Oil 99.20/bbl. +2.9% 
• Gold 4,853.0 USD/t oz. -.9%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.37 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.7 -1.1%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.52% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.9 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.6%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.13%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Mideast Energy Infrastructure Damage Concerns, Restaurant/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.8 +2.9%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 +.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .25 -4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.9 +1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 148.7 +2.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 79.2 -2.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.0 -2.2 

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.8 -.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.0 +.2

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.2 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +10.9% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.19 +.32:  Growth Rate +17.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 527.19 +.47: Growth Rate +32.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.9 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.3 -1.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.7 euros/megawatt-hour +6.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -1.5 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.06 +10.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 96.9% (-1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 84.4%(+4.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +525 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.4% 2) Restaurants -2.3% 3) Telecom -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CHYM, ACAD, TGTX, LGIH, IPI, SIG, SKE, BIPC, BTI, UL, ATR, KSS, VOR, AU, CAG, CGON, OTIS, ARIS, BZ, ADMA, CTGO, ELE, KMTS, BW, TTD, SMTC, AFRM, MMUX, PAAS, AERO, QFIN, CTNM, CGAU, KLAR, GFI, DQ, RKLB, ARVN, QDEL, TME, SA, TMDX and SAIL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CSX 2) ORBS 3) CTMX 4) AMPX 5) BILI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CING 2) WB 3) LFWD 4) GEMI 5) CLPT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) GDX 3) SIL 4) ITB 5) REMX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +2.0% 2) Networking +2.0% 3) AI/Innovation +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SWMR, ANDG, RGC, KC, AXTI, AGRO, NN, FSLY, SEI, LITE, VIAV, AAOI, ADTN, CVI, DOCN, VG, ZTO, NVT, NET, COHR, RCAT, AVO, WSM, LULU, BTSG, TSEM, M, GPGI, NBIS, TNK, EDU, LOCO, TRMD, AMBA, GEO, GNK, WBI, ELPC, MEOH, MUR, ASO, DHT, FLNG, SUN, INSW, GLNG, DSP and STNG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REI 2) DUST 3) SIG 4) JBL 5) IVZ 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SWMR 2) ANDG 3) WSM 4) SNDK 5) M

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) XBI 4) XLE 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/2.85
• (BABA)/11.24
• (CSIQ)/-.47
• (DRI)/2.94
• (SIG)/6.11 

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.15
• (PL)/-.05 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1851K versus 1850K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook for March is estimated to fall to 8.5 versus 16.3 in Feb. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Feb. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
• Wholesale Trade Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.0% gain in Dec. 

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 4Q. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB meeting, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 10Y TIPS auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Sidoti Small-Cap Conference, (KEYS) annual meeting, (BOX) analyst day and the B.Riley Investor Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.8 +1.8
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 31.5% of Issues Advancing, 66.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .72 -27.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$264.3M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 81 New Lows
• 49.1% (-3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.6 +4.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 45.0% -.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 54.0% -2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 102.7 +1.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 532.25 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.6 +.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.8 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 17.4 -1.0%
  
• Vix 23.4 +4.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%