Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 -.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 +1.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 -8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.6 -1.9%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.5 -.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 57.7 -3.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.2 +.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.7 -4.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -73.7 +8.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.8 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(473 of 500 reporting) +27.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 358.83 +2.40:  Growth Rate +22.3% +.8 percentage point, P/E 20.9 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.44% +4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 877.0 +6.99: Growth Rate +121.5% +1.8 percentage points, P/E 20.1 +.3 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 44.5 basis points (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 185.68 +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.8% +1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.49% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.6% (+7.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.0%(+11.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +570 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -119 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.3% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.5% 3) Computer Services -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MDLN, LGP, MNSO, BP, AAP, MXL, INTU, RACE, MRAM, TSCO, QUBT, RGTI, QUBT, GKOS, KC, GENB, AZO and DXYZ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EWJ 2) ANF 3) BHC 4) WEN 5) ROST

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSEOF 2) POET 3) NUAI 4) RACE 5) RGC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) IYM 3) IBB 4) KWEB 5) PWRD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Coal +6.2% 2) Semis +5.2% 3) AI Innovation +4.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ATOM, TE, RDW, VICR, FLY, FUTU, MU, XNDU, JOYY, YSS, MOD, POWI, OUST, ASTS, SPIR, ACMR, UMC, DUOT, LUNR, GILT, FSIT, AMRC, AOSL, BRUN, NNE, USAR, SSYS, AMKR, NVAX, ASX, GRPN, AMWD, CCOI, PSIX, VSAT, IE, QUIK, HLIT, WULF, NVTS, ON, AMR, PCT, CECO, VPG, MOG/A, PRIM, VIAV, OPTX, ELVA, CLSK, CIB, QFIN, CLFD, VELO, ALOY, SMR, DIOD, MP, AMBA, PRCH, OKLO, XPEV, APH, ASYS, SRRK, VSH, FORM, UPST, LUMN, SMCI, NOK, TKR, TEO, AEVA, TATT, NTES, ENPH, WYFI, MTSI, MRVL, AAL, ROG, ICHR, BKSY, BMA, GFS, TX, VST, BRZE, STM, MDA, STRO, AYA, ELE, NN, IRDM, WOLF, GGAL, UMAC, TTMI, ZS, CORZ, BIRK, ONTO, SIMO, RCL, COHU, SIRI, FSLR, SNOW, VOYG, ST, HIMX, SATL, ARM, DELL, QCOM, AIP and AMBQ

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CRBP 2) VIXY 3) NASA 4) CPRI 5) COLO 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RDW 2) MU 3) VICR 4) FLY 5) MEDH 

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IXN 2) IGV 3) DRAM 4) IYH 5) BAI

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANF)/1.28
• (BMO)/2.52
• (BBWI)/.29
• (DKS)/2.89
• (DY)/2.72
• (PDD)/16.56 
• (BBY)/1.22 

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.41
• (AMSC)/.18
• (HEI)/1.33
• (HPQ)/.71
• (MRVL)/.80
• (NTNX)/.36
• (CRM)/3.13
• (SNOW)/.32
• (SNPS)/3.15 

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• ADP Weekly Employment Change.  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for May is estimated to rise to 4.0 versus 3.0 in April. 

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, 5Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly API crude oil stock report, TD Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, KeyBanc Indusrtrials/Basic Materials Conference, Jefferies Software/Internet/AI Conference, Stifel Jaws/Paws Conference, (TTMI) investor day, (RJF) investor day, (ADT) annual meeting, (CVX) annual meeting, (XOM) annual meeting, (META) annual meeting and the Craig Hallum Investor Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +12.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.8 +.2
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 64.2% of Issues Advancing, 33.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.24 +12.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$51.9M
  
• 140 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
• 54.6% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.0 +3.5

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
• Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 67.0% +2.0 percentage points
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 54.0% +10.0 percentage points 
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 75.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 19.0% -6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 124.2 +.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +15.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 97.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 440.5 -.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.9 +.5%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 156.2 +2.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.3 -40.8%
• Vix 17.1 +3.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .81 -33.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Trump pushed Saudi Arabia and Qatar to recognize Israel by joining the Abraham Accords, linking it to negotiations with Iran. 
• Israel will intensify its strikes against Hezbollah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday, amid stepped-up negotiations between the US and Iran to bring an end to conflict in the region. 
• US and Israeli jets struck a number of Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, local media reported, hours after President Donald Trump had suggested negotiations with Tehran over an interim deal were progressing.
• Treasuries rallied across the curve as cash trading resumed after a holiday break, with investors growing more optimistic about a potential US-Iran deal. 
• Taiwan overtakes India in stock market value, powered mainly by a breakneck rally in the world’s largest chipmaker TSMC. Read more: 
• A key Treasury yield gap has shrunk to its tightest level in a year as traders ramp up bets the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer under new chairman Kevin Warsh.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @Zerohedge 

• China Moves To Shut Down Offshore Stock-Trading Channels Used By Mainland Investors.
• I am told the US strikes are over for now. Again these were defensive in nature not offensive and not an effort to break the ceasefire. The US military says it reacted when they saw 2 IRGC boats laying mines and then also when a SAM missile site targeted its warplanes.
• CENTCOM spox Capt Tim Hawkins to Fox: “U.S. forces conducted self-defense strikes in southern Iran today to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.”
• 'Weeks Inside Highly Fortified Bunkers': Report Details Painfully Slow Communication Within Iran's Leadership.
• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately told evangelical leader and Trump ally Mike Evans that he was ready to recognize Israel “today,” but that his father, King Salman, remained the obstacle.
• stole this from Oxford Economics. EM is getting shellacked when you remove TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix. (graph)   
• Morgan Stanley Asks: Has AI Made The US Economy Inelastic.
• Democrats Using Black Athletes As Pawns In Redistricting War.
• *6.1 MAG. EARTHQUAKE NORTHERN CHILE. In case copper wasn't expensive enough.
• Reports Of Deadly US-Israeli Airstrikes On Iran's Port Of Bandar Abbas As Trump Issues Enriched Uranium Demand.    
• Upside call skew across large-cap tech is now reaching meme-mania style extremes, increasingly echoing melt-up environments like 1997 and parts of 2003.
• Trump: Iran's enriched uranium will either be turned over to the US or destroyed.
• Iran would open Strait of Hormuz 30 days after peace deal: Nikkei. no SoH reopening until July at the earliest.
• What Happens Next If Global Real Yields Continue Higher? Goldman Spoiler Alert: 'Nothing Good'.
• Huckabee Tells Lebanese To Thank Israel For Seedless Watermelons, While Under IDF Bombs.
• OnlyFans "Hack" Hoax Likely Used To Push Malware-Laced Leak Checkers.
• Israel's Netanyahu orders escalation of Lebanon offensive to 'crush' Hezbollah.
• Pope Sounds Alarm On AI "Slavery" While Church Aligns With Lefty Anthropic.
• Everyone Talks About The Cost Of Gasoline... Soon Everyone Will Be Talking About The Cost Of Food.
• It Was Never About The Climate.
• The Devil Neither Political Party Will Name.
• Futures, Global Stocks Soar To All Time HIgh, Oil Plunges On Endless "Iran Deal" Drumbeat.
• “After today’s market moves, the most likely scenario already appears to be largely priced in. Therefore expect some ‘sell the news’ dynamics once a deal is finally reached, and I would refrain from adding exposure to equities until yield curves move lower.” - Singular Bank.
• Top Overnight News Iran Talks Bog Down Over Nuclear Program, Sanctions Relief: WSJ. US, Iran inch toward deal as gaps remain on uranium, sanctions: BBG. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson says they have reached a framework with the US but nobody can say that an agreement between the two sides is imminent; Iran will not collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz but it's normal that services provided would require a price: RTRS...             

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: Faith in markets, doubts in diplomacy. 
• Dow futures jump 400 points as oil tumbles on hope U.S.-Iran deal is close: Live updates.  
• Asia markets set to open broadly higher as oil prices slide on U.S.-Iran peace hopes.     

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: Israel just launched Operation Arrows of Fire. Schools closing across northern Israel tomorrow. Beirut evacuating tonight. The IDF Home Front Command is telling its own civilians to prepare for what's coming. This is either Netanyahu trying to sabotage the deal, or he's trying to cause as much damage as possible before ending the war at Trump's orders. Trump can push for peace. He can't stop the next 48 hours. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: President Trump says negotations with Iran will "only be a great deal for all or, no deal at all, back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before." He also calls on Middle East countries, including Iran, to sign on to the Abraham Accords. (pic)

• @annvandersteel

• URGENT: SIGN THE PETITION. A private company wants to release particles into our atmosphere to dim the sun. We do not consent. No corporation should control our sky, our sunlight, our weather, or the future of our children. Florida, Tennessee, and Louisiana are already taking action. Now every state must stand up. Sign the petition. Share it everywhere. Tell your legislators: BAN solar geoengineering now. https://thegeofight.com/petition. Defend the sky.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Tulsi's Parting Gifts. "every digital voting machine in the United States contains some Chinese manufactured electronics or code." Page 248: "Earlier this year (2025) a very brave member of the US DOJ seized all voting machines in a certain jurisdiction in the United States and turned them over to experts in the intelligence community for a close forensic inspection of the machines for foreign-made parts and software. As a result of his actions and other findings, the ODNI produced this recent assessment: 
• 4 HIDDEN GOP MIDTERM ASSETS. "If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or for the Republican candidate?" Our latest so-called 'Generic Ballot' poll results are in and will be released tomorrow. But they will almost certainly be non-predictive in November. Our readers know legacy media is feverishly suppressing all kinds of devastating scandals while conjuring others up out of thin of air. The Trump Administration holds the bully pulpit and it has yet to unload in a way that legacy media can't continue their coverup. Public opinion and polls WILL be impacted. Here are 4 examples of hidden GOP assets.  

• @HealthRanger

• The Trump administration seems to be all-in for herbicides like glyphosate and atrazine, a gender-bender chemical.
• People who have been customers of OnlyFans apparently got all their customer details stolen in a massive hack / leak. I wonder how many people will get ensnared in this little "Epstein-lite" trap... seems like a blackmail goldmine for the hackers... 

• @jackprandelli

• What the US buys from China? → Smartphones: $51.5B 45% of all US imports. → Computers: $36.7B 26%. → Batteries: $18.1B 56%. → Toys: $14.4B 76%. → Video game consoles: $7.2B 78%. What China buys from the US: → Petroleum gases: $14.0B 16%. → Soybeans: $12.0B 23%. → Semiconductors: $11.8B 3%. → Jet engines & gas turbines: $6.6B 54%. → Aircraft & spacecraft: $5.3B 58%. The energy number is the one that matters most right now. China buys $14B of US petroleum gases annually 16% of its total gas imports. The asymmetry is stark. China sells the US consumer electronics it can't quickly source elsewhere. The US sells China the energy, food, and aerospace technology it needs to keep its economy running.

• @EricLDaugh

• IT'S OFFICIAL: Tina Peters will be RELEASED from prison in 7 DAYS after massive pressure from President Trump. ALMOST THERE! She's entitled to MASSIVE damages after her rights were violated. TRUMP: "She caught people cheating on an election, and they said she was cheating. She wasn't cheating. She went over, she looked at one of the election scams going on, and because she did that, they put her in jail for nine years!" "She caught people cheating on the election 2020, along with a lot of other people that cheated on that election." — 47 recently. LFG! (video)

• @TonySeruga

• The Deep State’s AI Fact-Checkers: The Invisible Algorithm That Makes Dissent Completely Disappear The Deep State just upgraded from clunky human fact-checkers to AI that scales narrative control at lightspeed. No more paper trails, subpoenas, or exposed biases—just seamless manipulation. Automated Shaping at Scale: AI floods zones with thousands of subtly varied "organic" rebuttals in seconds. Pre-bunks emerging stories before they trend. Detects your writing style, reasoning patterns, and source chains to dynamically throttle—no crude bans needed.

• @LightOnLiberty

• Georgia State Senator Greg Dolezal has called for the state to immediately take over Fulton County elections ahead of 2026, citing a 2021 law allowing intervention when a county FAILS to follow state election rules! Fulton County maintains hundreds of voters on its rolls born in the year 1900 and thousands registered at invalid locations including parking lots, closed homeless shelters from a decade ago, UPS stores, and storage units which are CLEAR violations that allows for voter fraud! "It is time for the state to step in before the 2026 general election to ensure that we can have a free and fair election!" (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• GEORGIA GOP voters are getting screwed again... Brian Kemp just called a Special Session for June 17 to redraw maps...FOR 2028! He's posturing while punting the chance to secure +2 GOP seats for the 2026 midterms. That could literally cost R's the House majority. Sound familiar? Déjà vu to 2020 when Georgia lost 2 Senate seats and Republicans lost the Senate. WHY DO CONSERVATIVES ALLOW THIS IN GEORGIA?

• @ScottPresler

• RATTLED: When asked if he will suffer the same fate as Senator Cassidy in Louisiana, Senator Cornyn looks noticeably rattled. The interviewer even quotes President Trump who called Senator Cornyn “disloyal.” Tomorrow is Election Day. Vote! Ken Paxton. (video)

• @MAGAMicki

• The panic inside the Senate GOP tells you everything. Trump endorsed Paxton. Cornyn cratered. Massie lost. And suddenly the “untouchables” don’t look so untouchable anymore. The America First base is done funding excuses and protecting career politicians. Remove the RINO.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.75 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%.
• Crude Oil 91.90/bbl. -4.9%
• Gold 4,578.0 USD/t oz. +.5% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.66 -.1%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.3 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.4 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.50% -5.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -3.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.23%.
• S&P 500 futures +.64%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.90%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% Net Long heading into the week.