NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running +2.9% Above 100-Day Average
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +1.2
- 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
- 63.4% of Issues Advancing, 34.9% Declining
- TRIN/Arms 1.10 +10.0%
- Non-Block Money Flow +$169.9M
- 145 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
- 57.6% (+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 62.3 +1.6
Polymarket: - Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 98.0% +82.0 percentage points
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 50.0% +5.0 percentage points
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 47.0% +10.0%
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 15.0% +3.0 percentage points
- US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% -13.0 percentage points
Other:
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.0 +1.7%
- Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 68.0 +2.0
- Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% -1.0 percentage point
- US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 436.5 -8.75 basis points
- Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 +1.3%
- Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.8 +4.2%
- CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +8.0
- 1-Day Vix 10.4 -45.9%
- Vix 16.0 -9.4%
- Total Put/Call .85 +11.8%
Around X:
- Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran.
- Odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 15 surge on Polymarket from 50% to 87%, and from 80% to 96% by Dec 31 (just mind the fine print).
- "Let The Oil Flow": Trump Declares Iran Peace Deal Complete As Pakistan PM Confirms Signing Ceremony Next Friday.
- An
LNG tanker appears to be heading to the Strait of Hormuz, just as the
US and Iran say they have reached a deal to reopen the waterway.
The Disha (which is chartered by India) has been stuck in the Persian
Gulf for >3 months. The tanker is carrying a cargo from Qatar.
- Space: The Now Frontier And The AI Revolution.
- Mojtaba Khamenei’s brother-in-law. Backs the deal, says those Iranian hardliners who oppose it are doing netanyahu’s work.
- Gonorrhea Rate Are Soaring In NYC: Mamdani Rushes Free Chocolate Condoms To Citizens Of Big Apple!
- Despite all the headlines, YTD performance across the private markets fund is actually above the benchmarks. Bears of course argue defaults are still ahead.
- Fear Of The Signal: Why The State Urgently Wants To Bind Prediction Markets.
- *TRUMP SAYS MOU SUSPENDS TOLLS IN THE STRAIT FOR 60 DAYS: NYT.
- Mehr News has released a short version of the 14-clauses of the MoU that will be signed on Friday, between Iran & US.
1. The permanent and immediate halt of war on all fronts, including
Lebanon. 2. A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal
affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
3. The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. 4. A U.S.
commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas surrounding Iran. 5.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian
“arrangements”...
- Reporter
with Israeli news outlet Maariv: "According to Israeli sources, in a
conversation with Trump, Netanyahu clarified that Israel does not
consider itself bound by the Lebanese clause in the American-Iranian
agreement. Netanyahu
told the American president that the IDF will not withdraw from
Lebanon, will remain in the positions it currently holds, and will
continue to act to thwart the threat from Hezbollah".
- Trump Says New Israeli Attack On Beirut "Should Not Have Happened" - Also Warns Hezbollah "Let's Not Blow It".
- Iran's President Pezeshkian via Fars News:
Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results. Recent
developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran's
interests than ourselves Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider
myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system Resolution of
the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and
whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will
be mandatory for all of us. I regret the neighboring countries being
exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted
the US bases on the soil of these countries. Issues and
misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved Ties with Gulf
region countries are on path to improvement. Talks do not mean
abandoning principles. Iran won't bow to any kind of bullying or illegal
pressure. Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect
Supreme National Security Council views.
- Trump: I spoke with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, I told him, “What the f- are you doing?”
- America's Energy Future Is Being Decided In Obscure Utility Commission Races.
- *TRUMP SAYS ISRAEL MUST STOP ALL ATTACKS IN LEBANON.
- Iran Reveals Draft Of Trump-Touted MoU To Be Signed Sunday: $25BN Asset Unfreeze, Enriched Uranium Dilution On The Table.
- *IDF SAYS STRUCK HEZBOLLAH COMMAND CENTER IN BEIRUT. *IDF SAYS BEIRUT STRIKE FOLLOWS HEZBOLLAH LAUNCHES TOWARD ISRAEL. *BEIRUT STRIKES CREATING ISSUES WITH FINALIZING IRAN-US DEAL:FOX.
- A
draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting
highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s
frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official.
Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two
sides. Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all
commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade. Tehran in draft
agrees that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. To
maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is reached, including
by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities.
- Former UK Prime Minister Admits Mass Migration Is Being Weaponized To Undermine Western Civilization.
- The existence, history, locations and funding of these U.S.
funded biolabs was intentionally covered up by powerful people falsely
claiming that the labs do not exist and accusing anyone who says
otherwise to be foreign assets and traitors to America. Those lies are
still being propagated today by the same powerful people and their allies who wish to see this dangerous research continue with little to no oversight.
- Slide 2: A map created by ODNI using U.S. government data to show lab locations, biosafety levels at each location, the type of research being conducted, and if biological weapons were being stored.
- Here
is the TRUTH: Dangerous gain-of-function research was funded by the
U.S. government around the world, directed and approved by people like
Dr Fauci.
@DNIGabbard exposed that yesterday. Using U.S.
government data, put together and uncovered by career subject matter
experts in the Intelligence Community and other government agencies,
yesterday’s release highlighted one example of the many overseas biolabs
funded by the U.S., the research conducted there, and the significant
risks they pose to the world, especially when located in a country at
war. - Which States Are Leading America's Economy?
- *TEENS WILL GET SOCIAL MEDIA CURFEW AND CHATBOT BAN IN UK: TIMES.
- Venezuela's crude exports just hit 1,300,000 barrels per day.
The Hormuz crisis made this possible. January 2026: exports collapsed
to 450 kbd as the Iran war broke out. June 2026: exports surged to 1,300
kbd nearly tripling in 6 months.
- Discs, Orbs, 'Heavenly' Phenomena, & More Revealed In 3rd Batch Of Declassified UFO Files.
- Trump Mulls Farmer Aid As Fertilizer And Fuel Costs Bite.
- Former NIH Head Secretly Helped With Paper Dismissing Theory COVID-19 Came From Lab.
Night Trading
- Asian indices are +1.5% to +3.5% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -2.5 basis points.
- China Sovereign CDS 39.25 -.25 basis point.
- China Iron Ore Spot 101.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
- Crude Oil 80.84/bbl. -4.7%
- Gold 4,338.0 USD/t oz. +2.4%.
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 -.16%.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.19 +.1%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.96 +1.0%.
- US 10-Year Yield 4.43% -5.0 basis points.
- Japan 30-Year Yield 3.77% -3.0 basis points.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -2.7%.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.73%.
- S&P 500 futures +1.06%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +1.75%.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.
Around X:
- Had bullish commentary on (PWR) and (HON).
- This
is one of Tucker's most explosive interviews about Trump, Iran, and who
is actually in control of the U.S He said Trump was pressured into a
war he didn't want, knew it was a bad idea, understood it could wreck
his presidency and blow up the global economy... and did it anyway. Not
because he was fooled or misinformed, but because he couldn't stop it.
Think about what that means. Trump spent years campaigning against
forever wars. If he understood the risks of attacking Iran, hated the
idea of another Middle East disaster, and yet ended up there anyway,
then the story isn't about Trump. It's about the forces that were able
to move him so far away from his campaign promises and values. And
Tucker goes there. He talks about the donors, Netanyahu, the pressure
Trump was put under, and how he changed after the Butler shooting. He
also talks about why he believes he'll eventually be silenced. (video)
- Nvidia
found a workaround for China. With H200 exports banned, Nvidia is now
taking orders for its new Vera AI data center CPUs from Chinese
customers, with delivery as early as August 2026. The numbers: - Single
Vera chip: $20,000+. - Full rack of 256 chips: ~$10 million. - Expected
revenue by end of fiscal year: $20 billion. Vera
isn't subject to current U.S. export restrictions because it's
classified as a CPU, not a GPU. Nvidia is essentially rebuilding its
China business from scratch around a product Washington hasn't blocked
yet.
- Here’s
the new information from DNI. They admit that the US built and
fund/support, over 40 labs in Ukraine, which house dangerous pathogens,
which Russia claim are being used for bioweapon development. They are
kind of admitting Putin and Russian MIL were right, to a degree. To
me, I think this is the beginning stages of public disclosure about
Covid being a US-funded experiment, and it very well may lead back to
the labs in Ukraine. Some of these US-funded labs were studying bat
coronaviruses in Ukraine, as early as 2014 via USIAD Project PREDICT.
We have to tell the world that COVID was man-made, and we have to tell
the world who made it. I think that process is now underway. It also
tells me talks with Russia must be in a good place, because any deal
with Russia, Putin is going to address the biolabs in Ukraine, as it has
been one of Russia’s main talking points at the UN. I think this
disclosure is related to a peace deal between Russia and the US/Ukraine.
(pic)
- The
most important SpaceX detail nobody is talking about: the lockup is
staggered. There is no single 180-day cliff. Insiders get to sell in
tiers, starting MUCH earlier than a standard IPO. Here’s exactly when insiders can start selling:
- SpaceX created over 4,400 millionaires today, and many of them are regular working people.
They are not executives or founders, they are welders, technicians,
machinists, and launch crew, the people who showed up every day and
built the rockets with their hands. Around 400 of them are sitting on
stakes worth over $100 million each. For context, Google's IPO created
roughly 1,000 millionaires. Facebook's created around the same. SpaceX is doing more than four times both of them in a single day. Juan Hernandez is one of them. (pic)
- Today,
I’m releasing never before seen intelligence revealing new evidence of
past US government funding for more than 120 biolabs in over 30
countries, including Ukraine. In support of President Trump‘s Executive
Order to end federal funding of dangerous gain of function research
around the world, and increase transparency and accountability, ODNI
will continue working with partners across the Administration to
identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what
“research” is being conducted. -@DNIGabbard. This is why they came after Tulsi so hard. (video)
- The $SPCX + $TSLA merger is going to melt people’s brains. Robotics,
autonomous vehicles, energy storage, LLMs, batteries, rockets, chips,
compute, connectivity, satellites, solar, etc. all under one roof. It’s
inevitable.
SKirsch.com:
