Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War De-Escalation Hopes, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -16 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +68 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKR)/.49

After the Close: 

• (AMKR)/.47
• (APLD)/-.09
• (BRO)/1.08
• (CDNS)/2.05
• (CLS)/2.30
• (FFIV)/4.00
• (NVTS)/-.04
• (NE)/.15
• (NUE)/4.46
• (SANM)/2.77
• (UHS)/5.94
• (WELL)/1.56 

Economic Releases 

 8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for June is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a -4.5% decline in May.
• Durables Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.4% gain in May.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.4% gain in May. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update and the 2/5Y T-Note auctions could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• President Donald Trump says damage to ships and cargo would be paid for by Iranian funds frozen by the US after new strikes by Houthi rebels in Yemen further strained global energy flows.
• The Houthi rebels of Yemen have resumed their attacks on Red Sea shipping, helping push oil prices above $100 a barrel for the first time in two months. Here's what to know. 
• Singapore’s GIC to Plow $30 Billion More Into Hedge Funds. 
• Goldman Sachsand JPMorgan Chase launched products this week allowing investors to quickly cut — or ramp up — exposure to tech industry debt, as concerns mount over hyperscalers’ huge future bond sales for artificial intelligence investments. 
• Data-center debt risks are rising, there’s uncertainty over what the properties are worth and returns are falling, according to Wellington Management. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Behind America's Growing 'Food Freedom' Movement.
• Seven Pipeline Projects That Could Break Iran's Grip On Hormuz Chokepoint.
• James Carville Calls On Democrats To Cave On Voter ID.
• Match to the Powder Keg: Iran's IRGC just issued a chilling warning directly to London: Any UK military base used by American forces to execute strike operations against Iran is now a "legitimate target". Singles out RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, where U.S. B-1 Lancer bombers have been operating. The Escalation Trap is expanding beyond the region.
• Trump Admin Weighing Military Intervention In Mali.
• Patchmageddon: AI Just Collapsed The Time-to-Exploit Window To Zero... And The Internet Is Next.
• Compromised individuals in the U.S. administration are burying their heads in the sand. They ignore the realities on the ground and seem focused only on 2028. The mindless aggression they advocate will only ensure that POTUS pays heavier price for deal he's trying to achieve. -@araghchi.              
• Technicals are breaking, oil is rising, and volatility positioning remains remarkably complacent.
• Three Levers China Is Pulling To Weather Gulf Energy Shock; How Long Can Beijing Hold Out?
• Just added Bab el-Mandeb to my real-time @TheTerminal chart — now tracking tanker crossings at both chokepoints (Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb) against Brent:
• If you have a second home in New York City worth more than $5M, check your mailbox when you’re back in the five boroughs — because you've got mail. Today, we sent notification letters to property owners, letting them know that our new pied-à-terre tax is coming soon. The best city in the world deserves the best parks, libraries, and schools in the world. That's only possible when we all pay our fair share. -@NYCMayor.
• "A Bridge Too Far": Middle East Set For A Massive Escalation. 
• Hypershrinkers & Hormuz Hell: Oil Soars, Tech Wrecks, Rate-Hike Odds Rip. 

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: Brent crude is back at $100 — and Trump renews tariffs.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Eli Lilly on Thursday said it will file for approval of its next-generation obesity drug in the first quarter of 2027, as the treatment succeeds in two more late-stage trials. The pharmaceutical giant previously said it would submit an application as early as this year for the weekly injection, retatrutide, which works differently and appears to be more effective than existing shots and pills. In a statement to CNBC, Lilly said it needs more time to gather and verify the manufacturing and quality-control data required by regulators before it can seek approval.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders look to recover from oil-driven sell-off: Live updates.
• The Trump administration will impose new tariffs just after midnight ET Friday on dozens of countries over alleged forced-labor violations, senior administration officials said Thursday. The duties, set between 10% and 12.5%, will effectively replace President Donald Trump’s temporary 10% global tariffs, which are set to expire at the same time as the new ones take effect. The forthcoming tariffs will apply to 60 trade partners and will cover over 99% of U.S. trade.
• Oracle signs 10-year software contract with Pentagon worth up to $7 billion.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel, AMD, Boston Beer, Deckers & more.
• OpenAI's Hugging Face hack triggers 'AI Kill Switch' bill in Congress.
• IBM's Krishna tries to reassure investors that AI won't disrupt company's software unit.
• China's largest memory chipmaker sparks fears of a cash drain before blockbuster IPO. 
• The 10-year Treasury yield could test 5% after its latest spike. Here’s why.         

• @TheTranscript

• Intel CEO: "AI is driving unprecedented demand for compute". CFO: "We delivered a strong second quarter, exceeding our financial guidance on robust demand and improved execution..." $INTC: +3% AH. 

• @WallStEngine

• Meta new $12B, nearly 1GW Texas data center deal is being discussed at yields above 7%, around 40bps higher than $META’s $27B Hyperion financing just 9 months ago. That difference adds $48M in annual interest. Hyperion bonds are currently trading at about 96 cents on the $$$.
• South Korea is tightening rules for leveraged single-stock ETFs and ETNs starting July 31. Retail investors will need roughly $20,300 in cash to open or add to a position, up from about $6,800. Stocks, bonds and other securities will no longer count toward the deposit requirement. 
• $INTC CFO ON FUNDING INTEL’S CAPEX RAMP; MAY TAP CAPITAL MARKET:
• INTEL $INTC: We're forecasting 2027 CAPEX to be significantly above the 2026 levels, with the vast majority spent across our U.S. network.  

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Iran is preparing to expand the war significantly as soon as Trump carries out his announced Iranian infrastructure strikes in the coming days, including by striking Tel Aviv directly and instructing the Houthis to fully close Bab el-Mandab to all ships, per two Iranian officials to NYT.

• @MarioNawful

• Trump just told people to stop fighting data centers. He said communities need to be convinced how great they are: “you can’t fight it... you have to go with it.” He’s fully pushing the AI infrastructure boom. (video)

• @GenXGirl1994

• Lauren Boebert says @SecWar & the @WhiteHouse don’t want Section 219 in the NDAA. Ok, that’s an easy fix. Have @POTUS tell the @republicans to REMOVE IT. You people control the House and the Senate. (video)

• @muskonomy

• NEWS: Elon Musk rejects the far right label in an exchange with The Economist. "I support the normal people. What you call the far right, falsely." He challenged the interviewer to say what is extreme about 3 positions. "Here are the principles and tell me which of these sound terrible. That we should have secure borders, that we should have safe cities, that we should have sensible spending. Which of those three are far right fringe?" Elon then turned on the framing itself... (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Leader John Thune is FUMING at Karoline Leavitt saying President Trump's patience is "wearing thin" over the SAVE America Act. THUNE: "Well, maybe SHE or somebody else ought to get on the phone and get the votes [for it]!" per Punchbowl. "Instead of pointing the finger at Republicans, they might think about going after the people who are stopping it on the floor, which is the Democrats." "And if there are Republicans that they think are gettable, get on the phone. Let’s get them to YES.” UNBELIEVABLE! Instead of BEING A LEADER he's telling other people top do HIS JOB FOR HIM. Every excuse in the world. Anything OTHER than working 7 days a week to secure our elections from the communist fraudsters.

• @glennbeck

• President Trump has asked all Americans to call Sen. John Thune's office and ask - RESPECTFULLY - that he gets the SAVE America Act passed. The "respectfully" part was a little hard for me, but I did it. Now it’s your turn: (202) 224-2321. (video) 

• @polymarket

• JUST IN: Major teachers’ unions demand that DEI standards be built into AI tools before they are widely adopted in schools.
• JUST IN: Italy moves to hold minors aged 14 to 18 criminally responsible amid a surge in youth crime. 

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: Eight countries issue joint statement & condemnation after Israeli minister Ben-Gvir led group to storm al-Aqsa mosque compound. "Israel has no sovereignty over Jerusalem or its Islamic and Christian holy sites." 
• JUST IN: Benjamin Netanyahu projected to lose Israel's upcoming prime minister election in October. 

• @DMichaelTripi

• NEW: Some Republican senators reportedly plan to vote against NDAA until Section 219 is stripped, as public scrutiny continues to intensify regarding measures in bill that integrate military technology and supply chain elements between US and Israel.

• @LPNational

• This is not law yet. Call both your senators. Tell them to strip Section 219 from the NDAA and vote no on a $1.15 trillion blank check. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.25% to -1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 38.75 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Crude Oil 92.0/bbl. -.3% 
• Gold 4,030.50 USD/t oz. -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.30 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.45 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 127.0 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.71% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% +6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.29%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Mideast War Escalation Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 +3.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.5 -1.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.5 +4.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.5 +3.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 67.2 +1.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.3 +.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.7 +6.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +1.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.7 +2.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(119 of 500 reporting) +74.6% +32.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.07 +.37:  Growth Rate +27.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.70% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% -180.8 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 911.58 +.75: Growth Rate +75.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.5 -.6 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 34.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.0 -1.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 62.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.4% -.9 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.70% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.17 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 56.0% (+1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -139 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/transport/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -4.1% 2) Retail -3.2% 3) Internet -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CCAP, KR, DX, HL, MSCI, GIS, GLAS, CX, POOL, CCXI, VKTX, KRNT, HCSG, WH, PSLV, CDE, GTY, SAN, RGEN, BTI, CLPT, COCO, R, AYA, ECPG, MTDR, RPM, LYFT, DRD, CNOB, CRUS, FRME, COAG, LBRX, FCFS, HBAN, LBRX, KNX, FTK, IFF, LUV, PZZA, MITK, GOOG, HOG, GOOG, GL, EZPW, DOV, FSV, FIVN, PI, TMUS, STC, SEZL, CASH, IPX, AAL, ROL, AESI, XMTR, MOH, TSLA, LBRT, STM and ACI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) GDS 2) CSX 3) ACI 4) DHR 5) DECK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) ROL 3) LCID 4) GOOG 5) FUTU

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLV 3) SMH 4) KBWB 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +2.1% 2) Road & Rail +1.4% 3) Industrials +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NVEC, NVCR, RELL, THRM, CLF, MEDP, ALLE, EQPT, KALU, IMAX, URI, WEX, OII, HIMS, LMT, TMO, HUT, ARGX, CAPR, HRI, RTX, CIFR, DGX, MXL, FCEL, DHR, OBE, ROP, NBBK, ORIC, CCS, SLG, CSX, MARA, SHIP, VIST, JHX, HON, GGG, RIOT, NSC, GEV, SMCI, CLSK, EQNR, RS, IONS, RLI, UNP, SKM, TECK, VG, LH, GSHD, FIX and RDY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GDS 2) PAA 3) BCS 4) PCG 5) UNP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ACU 2) MEDP 3) URI 4) NVCR 5) ALLE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) DRAM 2) IYF 3) XLB 4) XRT 5) XLK

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume