Tuesday, October 01, 2019

Stocks Reversing Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Impeachment Talk, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Road & Rail/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.5 +13.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.25 -.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.16 +.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.10 +11.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 -12.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -4.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.76 +45.45%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.56 +.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 464.0 +5.84%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.87 -.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.25 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.49 +.07%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.28 +1.55%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.0 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.5 +1.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 30.0 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.0 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.77% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .09 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 89.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.0 -8.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.40 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.5 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52 +3.0 basis points
  • 82.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 91.0% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -185 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -37 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/industrial/medical/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

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