Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• China Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere.  

• China’s Manufacturing Is Back in Expansion.     

• Australia Says Citizen’s ‘Interrogation’ by China Unacceptable.

• PBOC’s Yi Signals Policy to Stay Cautious Amid Uncertain Data.

• Hong Kong Unrest Rages On as Police Clash With Protesters.  

• South Korean Consumer Prices Eke Out Growth in November.

• Merkel’s Tenure on the Line as Coalition Partner Veers Left.  

• U.S. Traders Bet Most in Two Years That Europe Has Bottomed Out.

• The Way Out for a Global Economy Hooked On Debt? Even More Debt. 

• Stocks Set for Muted Start; Treasury Futures Dip. Stocks in Asia were set for a muted start to December as investors weighed data on China’s economy that showed a bright spot for manufacturing and the latest news on the trade front. Australian bond yields rose. S&P 500 futures edged up and contracts pointed marginally higher in Tokyo and Hong Kong. The S&P 500 Index dipped on Friday. On U.S.-China trade: the Global Times reported that China’s government wants tariffs to be rolled back as part of the phase one trade deal with the U.S. Oil recovered a sliver of Friday’s slide after Iraq said OPEC and its allies will consider deeper production cuts. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 8:05 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge slipped 0.4% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.2%. Hang Seng Index futures rose 0.2%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.1%.   

• Oil Recovers as China Data Offers Hope for Global Demand.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

• Billions Minted: It Will Be Hard to Top Stocks in 2019.

• Online Sales Break Black Friday Record as Clicks Beat Queues.  

• Republican Says Schiff Should Testify in Impeachment Hearing.  

• Not Even a Blockbuster Jobs Report Will Move the Needle for Treasury Bulls.  

• Bitcoin Set to Post Worst Month of 2019.

Wall Street Journal:

• Saudis Push for Longer-Lasting OPEC Cuts as Aramco IPO Approaches.

• Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without U.S. Chips.

• Investors Bet on More Pain for Retailers.

• U.S., Europeans Clash Over How to Handle Islamic State Detainees.

• Highways Give Way to Homes as Cities Rebuild.

• Impeachment Fight at Home Hangs Over Trump’s NATO Trip.

• Private-Equity Cash Piles Up as Takeover Targets Get Pricier.

• U.S. Growth Enters Fourth Quarter on More Solid Footing.

• Retailers Revamp Staffing as Shopping Shifts Online.

• China and Russia Are Partners—and Now Have a $55 Billion Pipeline to Prove It.

MarketWatch.com:

• Disney(DIS) is giving us Baby Yoda toys for Christmas.  

• Will a Santa Claus rally power the S&P 500 and Dow to their best years in a generation?

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (IBM), (SU), (SKT) and (GOOS).

Fox News:

• 21 killed, including police officers, as bullets fly during cartel gunbattle near Texas.

• NEWT GINGRICH: Plot against Trump is real – and bigger than many think.

CNBC:

• Black Friday shoppers spend record $7.4 billion in second largest online sales day ever.

• 5G broadband is an existential threat to cable companies, but execs and investors aren’t worried.

• ‘Tax Cuts 2.0’ could include a rate reduction for the middle class. Here’s who would benefit most.

Zero Hedge:           

• London Bridge Killer Was Released From Prison Early On Prior Terrorism Charge.

• In Shocking Blow To Merkel, Germany's SPD Elects Leftist Leaders, Risking Coalition Government Collapse.

• CTAs Caught In A Tug Of War Between Bonds And Stocks As Year-End Looms.

• Newsweek Reporter Fired After Peddling Fake News That Trump Golfed On Thanksgiving.

• Schwab Abandons High-Tax San Francisco For New $100 Million Mega-HQ In Dallas.

• BET Founder Says 2020 Election Is "Trump's To Lose".

• Two Storms One Weekend: 50 Million Under Winter Alerts As Travelers Return From Thanksgiving .

• Hong Kong Plunges Into Post-Election Chaos; Pro-Democracy Protesters Thank Trump For Signing Bill.

Business Insider:

• Another winter storm could spell trouble for return Thanksgiving travels across US. Here's the latest.

• Joe Biden nibbled on his wife's finger in a bizarre campaign stop moment.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.50 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.50 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.14 +.01%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.29%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (DSX)/.02

After the Close:

• (COUP)/.06

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 49.2 versus 48.3 in Oct.

• The ISM Prices Paid Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 45.5 in Oct.

• The ISM Employment Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 48.3 versus 47.7 in Oct.

• Construction Spending MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurzone PMI report, USTR report on France's digital tax, RBA meeting, Goldman Sachs Industrials Conference, Wells Fargo TMT Summit, Citi Basic Materials Conference and the CSFB Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.