Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 -.32%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.7 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.1 -1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.2 -2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.99 +.07:  Growth Rate +14.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.92 +.22: Growth Rate +25.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.7 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 -22.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.53 -12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.4% +2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -474 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +133 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -2.1% 2) Semis -1.1% 3) Internet -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RDW, RGTI, GSBD, HSAI, DAVE, ATOM, PDYN, RCAT and PRTA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FFIE 2) PARA 3) FOUR 4) OSCR 5) OPTT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SGMO 2) DAVE 3) ZETA 4) FLUX 5) LAES
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PPA 2) IGV 3) ARKK 4) MAGS 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +2.0% 2) Energy +1.4% 3) Shipping +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FTAI, SPNT, ACAD, GCT, HZO, QURE, CYBR, WGO and PRTH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MLCO 2) LPSN 3) CAH 4) DNN 5) CTRA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SPNT 2) FTAI 3) ACAD 4) ASTM 5) AIV
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLY 2) IGF 3) VGT 4) XLV 5) XOP
Charts:

Thursday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (RGP)/.00
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 221K versus 219K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1890K versus 1910K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Oct.

11:00 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,488,400 barrels versus a -4,237,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +356,200 barrels versus a +1,630,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -594,6000 barrels versus a -1,694,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.7% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • (MTH) 2-for-1
  • (CVLG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly Fed balance sheet report, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading on Thursday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -27.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 31.9 +10.7
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 73.7% of Issues Advancing, 24.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.41 -10.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$211.5M
  • 17 New 52-Week Highs, 32 New Lows
  • 53.0% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 +2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.4 +.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.5 -.09%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,833.5 -.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 13.9 -15.9%
  • Vix 17.1 -1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .77 -17.2%

Monday, December 30, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @DouglasAMacgregor
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @newstart_2024
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • JUST IN: Biden announced $2.5 billion in security assistance for Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced $3.4 billion in budget aid to Ukraine. Nearly $6 billion authorized for Ukraine today. Meanwhile North Carolina looks like this: (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @MarioNawful
  • 'EXHAUSTED' AMERICA TUNES OUT CABLE NEWS AS RATINGS CRASH 50%. NYT columnist unleashes brutal reality check: Americans are over the political drama. Progressive networks' ratings have plunged since November – CNN down 46%, MSNBC hemorrhaging 55% of viewers. "I'm thrilled," says David Brooks, skewering cable's identity politics circus:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.8 -.06%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Debt-Related Concerns, Year-End Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.79 -.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.92 +.26:  Growth Rate +13.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.70 +.10: Growth Rate +25.2% unch., P/E 33.9 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.65 -33.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.7% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 48.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 47.9%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -194 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +135 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.5% 2) Networking -1.2% 3) Retail -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ARQQ, AXSM, BTDR, AVXL, ACHR and RUM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FFIE 2) AMKR 3) VRDN 4) ITB 5) TER
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KYTX 2) HUMA 3) APLT 4) CPRI 5) NKE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) IGV 4) XLV 5) ITB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +1.9% 2) Energy +.7% 3) Regional Banks +.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GRR, MESO, RCAT, PDYN, CRK, PONY, AR, SD, HSAI, PRTH, DEC, MSGE, LBRT, GPOR, RRC, TDW, EQT, RGTI, EFXT, NPWR, ENFN, RDW, AMTM, AEHR and DVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LPSN 2) REKR 3) LODE 4) EDR 5) EDR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JG 2) FFIE 3) PDYN 4) HSAI 5) OCTO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) PTF 2) MAGS 3) XLK 4) VGT 5) XLU
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
  • The CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.18% gain in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • (MTH) 2-for-1
  • (CVLG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Dallas Fed Services Revenues for Dec., Texas Services Sector Outlook for Dec., weekly US retail sales reports, week API crude oil stock report and the (RNG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 -1.4
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 71.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.10 -2.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$348.5M
  • 11 New 52-Week Highs, 138 New Lows
  • 50.0% (-7.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 -5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.7 -5.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.6 -.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,932.0 -.24%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.4 -2.3%
  • Vix 17.5 +9.9%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +11.5%

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @MdBreathe
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @annvandersteel
  • @wideawake_media
  • @EmeraldRobinson
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.7 -.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 +.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.