Friday, October 28, 2016

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 2,129.15 -.79%
  • DJIA 18,175.60 -.22%
  • NASDAQ 5,192.94 -1.44%
  • Russell 2000 1,189.24 -2.45%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 32.64 -.61%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 108.62 -4.46%
  • Wilshire 5000 21,941.60 -1.15%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,024.16 -1.27%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,022.62 -.49%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 540.33 +.79%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2039 -.30%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,203.91 +.95%
  • Transports 8,016.84 -.60%
  • Utilities 661.13 +1.12%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 82.75 +2.29%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 37.15 -1.07%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,141.74 -.24%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 996.93 -.37%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 267,320 -.79%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -90 -128
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 9.52 -62.71%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 407,995 -1.37%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,811,281 -3.68%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +4.12%
  • OEX Put/Call 4.46 +751.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 55.0 -51.33%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -26.67%
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.5 +27.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.23 +39.28%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.29 -.54%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.69 +2.23%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,065.39 +.23%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.651 Trillion +.61%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$16.262 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 24.8 +4.3%
  • AAII % Bears 34.1 -9.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 189.21 +.08%
  • Crude Oil 48.76 -4.63%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 146.72 -4.27%
  • Natural Gas 3.11 +4.76%
  • Heating Oil 154.58 -2.46%
  • Gold 1,278.80 +1.27%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 156.10 +3.84%
  • Copper 219.65 +4.97%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 176.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 63.96 USD/Ton +8.92%
  • Lumber 300.70 -2.82%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,189.62 +.67%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.1% +10.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.0% -50.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1574 +8.27%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 129.11 +.12%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.10 +13.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.5 +26.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.10 +4.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 82.9% chance of no change, 17.1% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/02
  • US Dollar Index 98.37 -.30%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,540.20 -.09%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.07 +1.64%
  • Yield Curve 99.0 +8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.85% +11.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.415 Trillion -.29%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.38 -.04%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 359.0 -.08%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 18.60 +2.65%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 33.90 -.53%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 90.13 -3.81%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.0 -1.47%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 749.96 +.66%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.66 -2.04%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.55 +.06%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% +4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 60.75 +5.0 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -1.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.5 -2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 76.21 +2.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 597.0 +13.2%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 96.0 +2.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 238.0 +2.1%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 140.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.298 Trillion -2.18%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 903.10 -.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 253,000 +1,250
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.5% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.47% -5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 492.0 -4.07%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.9 +.7 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.6% -10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.22/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 798.0 -5.23%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 738.03 +1.15%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 -12.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 275,541 +2.34%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.9%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +3.6%
  • Defense +1.2%
  • Steel +1.2%
  • Utilities +1.1%
  • Telecom +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical Equipment -3.5% 
  • Alt Energy -3.7%
  • Oil Service -6.6%
  • Oil Tankers -10.5%
  • Hospitals -16.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (30)
  • MBVT, STRA, CPLA, AKAM, SAIA, BEAV, NCR, SJW, JNPR, RAI, NCI, OI, CR, AIT, JCOM, EVDY, FFIV, CTL, PLNT, BOOT, SFLY, YRCW, STBA, CLGX, IRBT, NOW, ALSN, TWX, SLAB and TMUS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (48)
  • NVEE, IART, ABG, T, CARE, GPK, DGI, EAT, WAB, AVY, CSGP, KMT, ANCX, HUBG, SONC, CMG, DXPE, WOOF, SHW, SHW, WAT, ABAX, DECK, WHR, MGPI, LH, SKX, DY, TREE, NUVA, MINI, ATHN, NLSN, DPLO, CYNO, PRXL, CLW, BCC, ABMD, ESND, UA, WNC, SRI, EW, LRN, ATI, TRNC and GNC
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Election Uncertainty, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Worries, Healthcare/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.28 +5.99%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 120.03 +.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.62 +1.58%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.47 +7.56%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 56.0 -42.27%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 +19.77%
  • NYSE Arms 1.03 +85.81
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.01 +1.75%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 575.0 +2.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 96.0 +.72%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.60 +4.73%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.83 +.58%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 238.45 +1.03%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 132.55 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 61.0 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -45.5 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.09 -.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% unch.
  • Yield Curve 99.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.96/Metric Tonne +1.46%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.1 +3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.5 +7.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.10 +1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73% unch.
  • 67.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 14 meeting, 68.9% chance at Feb. 1 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -63 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -56 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Tankers -3.5% 2) Drugs -1.9% 3) Oil Service -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • STON, MCK, VAL, TBPH, SYNA, INT, CEMP, YRCW, NSR, GNC, AMGN, CAH, ASGN, BBH, BGS, ABC, TEAM, BOFI, NVO, GT, AMZN, DPLO, ABBV, BUD, ALDR, FLS, LM, CVS, EA, AN, MOH, COG, FET, PRLB, WWE, NEWM, ESRX, TYPE and OII
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLF 2) CVX 3) MA 4) JWN 5) ESRX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNMX 2) EHTH 3) MCK 4) JNJ 5) EA
Charts: