Thursday, August 29, 2019

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +2.8% 2) Airlines +2.4% 3) Banks +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NTNX, USMV, BURL, NOBL, TLYS, MTRX, ESTC, GES, IGV, TECD, DG, IEFA, WRLD, SCVL, TSE, FSLY, MBUU, FIVE, AMSWA, QDEL, PVH, GEF, JBL, HAIN, BYSI, SCVL, MEI, ZUO, RGS and HEES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FOXA 2) XRT 3) XHB 4) GME 5) XLI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BURL 2) GES 3) NTNX 4) TECD 5) DG
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     
  • Asian Stocks Set for Muted Open; Dollar Gains. Asian stocks look set for a muted open Thursday as investors awaited new developments in the U.S. and China trade negotiations. The dollar strengthened to a nine-month high. Futures nudged higher in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and dipped in Sydney. U.S. futures edged lower after the S&P 500 Index climbed on below average volume as a rally in oil pushed energy shares higher. Ten-year Treasury yields held steady after hitting a three-year low. Currencies were little changed in Asia after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. doesn’t intend to intervene on the dollar for now. The pound weakened and gilts climbed after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend parliament, increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.2% in Singapore. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell 0.1%. Hang Seng Index futures added 0.1%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 8:02 a.m. in Tokyo.   
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.5 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  64.83 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.34%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/-.52
  • (BBY)/.99
  • (BURL)/1.14
  • (DG)/1.57
  • (DLTR)/.82
  • (MDP)/1.58
  • (PDCO)/.25
  • (SAFM)/3.07
  • (TECD)/2.31
  • (TITN)/.33
  • (TD)/1.80
After the Close:
  • ((COO)/2.70
  • (DELL)/1.49
  • (MRVL)/.15
  • (ULTA)/2.80
  • (WDAY)/.35
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain.
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$74.4B versus -$74.2B in June.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in June.
  • Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versu s209K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1687K versus 1674K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a +2.8% gain in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI/Unemployment Rate reports, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (CRM) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Diminished Global Growth Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Retail/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.3 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.0 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.03 -.66%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 45.83 -2.66%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 -15.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.22 +28.4%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -40.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.11 -2.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 424.0 +.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.53 +.07%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.75 -7.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.65 +1.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 218.29 +1.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.84 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.75 +1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 14.0 -4.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.50 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.86 -.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.98% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -.04 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.24%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.6 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.30 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.7 +.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56+1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +31 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long