Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
CWTR/.21
CMTL/.31
CMVT/.01
HIBB/.39
KKD/.26
PERY/1.11
PSYS/.19
ZQK/.15
TLB/.40
TECD/.54
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Trade Balance estimated at -$42.0B in January vs. -$42.5B in December.
Wholesale Inventories estimated up .4% in January vs. .5% in December.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs is recommending positions in the Electronic Manufacturing Service stocks at current levels. Their favorites are SLR and CLS, saying they have 30%+ upside potential. GS believes that ORCL will meet estimates Thur. and may guide higher for March Q as they see growing evidence that larger deals are back in the pipeline. GS also said COF's managed data showed healthy improvements in both charge-offs and delinquencies and modest loan growth. Goldman thinks HAL represents good trading opportunity as the risk of material adverse impact from Iraq problems is remote. Finally, Goldman is reducing estimates on EP ahead of report on 3/11.
Late-Night News
The prices of H-beam steel used in construction have risen to a 17-year high in Japan on Chinese demand, Nihon Keizai reported. Fannie Mae, the biggest buyer of U.S. mortgages, paid a net $25.1B on derivative transactions in less than 4 years, most of which may represent losses that can't be recovered and may hurt future earnings, the Financial Times reported. Fannie Mae denies the report. Viacom Chairman Redstone indicated that the company might buy cable systems and that it will invest more money in creative businesses such as film and television, the Wall Street Journal reported. China's Industrial Production grew 17% from year ago levels, according to Mainland Marketing Research Co. Iraqis will have the lead role in bringing Saddam Hussein to trial, said a spokesman for the U.S.-led administration in Iraq. Carlyle Group is negotiating with a partner to buy a stake in China Pacific Life Insurance, the nation's third largest insurer, for $400M.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are down with the exception of China(+1.4%). Losses range from -1.0% to -1.5%.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ indicated -.35%.
BOTTOM LINE: Weakness in Asia will likely result in a weaker opening for U.S. shares. I expect a volatile day tomorrow. Either the major indies will drop on a clear technical break-down of the NASDAQ or hold in the morning leading to a short-covering rally later in the day. The Portfolio is 50% net long and I will look to trade as I get a better read on the market's short-term direction.
Wednesday, March 10, 2004
Tuesday, March 09, 2004
Tuesday Close
S&P 500 1,140.58 -.58%
NASDAQ 1,995.16 -.68%
Leading Sectors
Foods +.30
Semis +.23%
Telecom -.07%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -1.80%
Airlines -2.73%
Networking -3.60%
Other
Crude Oil 36.36 +.22%
Natural Gas 5.46 +.40%
Gold 403.00 -.37%
Base Metals 106.68 -2.12%
U.S. Dollar 88.43 +.60%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.72% -1.25%
VIX 16.60 +5.13%
Put/Call .98 +22.50%
NYSE Arms 2.74 +60.23%
After-hours Movers
RCKY +14.4% after announcing that it will produce 200,000 pairs of combat boots for U.S. Army.
MMSI +5.93% after announcing it will be added to the S&P 600.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterating Outperform on ADP after NY analyst meeting today. GS initiating coverage on NOC with an Outperform. GS lowering estimates on RTN and lowering rating to Underperform. GS reiterating Outperform on NKE and raising estimates. TheStreet.com says TKLC is a sensible way to play the booming VoIP business.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday in a wide variety of sectors as investors continue to seek profit-taking opportunities on the heels of the last 12 month's rally. After the close, Procter & Gamble(PG) raised 3Q guidance, raised its dividend and announced a 2-for-1 stock split. Comcast, spurned once in its takeover bid for Disney, will return with a higher offer, President Bob Iger predicted. The war against al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan is almost over and three-quarters of the country is secure, Reuters said. IBM may lose all or some of its $5B contract with JP Morgan after the bank completes its acquisition of Bank One, Bloomberg reported. Eastman Kodak filed a lawsuit accusing Sony of using its patented technology for digital cameras without permission, Bloomberg reported. U.S. health officials said a Wisconsin state Web site that helps residents order cheap mail-order drugs from Canada is illegal and puts the state at risk for patients' lawsuits. The U.S. Senate defeated an attempt by Democrats to make it tougher to make President Bush's $1.7 trillion tax cut permanent. Eli Lilly said a government probe of its marketing may widen to include its best selling drug, Zyprexa.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished the day unchanged, as broad market weakness persisted throughout the day. While the NASDAQ did break the 2000 support level, it was not a convincing break and the relative strength in semis may provide the catalyst for a near-term rally. I took profits in one of my consumer cyclicals and added a semi equipment long on the close, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. My indicators and analysis are giving conflicting signals, thus I will remain conservatively positioned, with a bias to the long-side, until a more clear resolution to the market's direction is apparent.
NASDAQ 1,995.16 -.68%
Leading Sectors
Foods +.30
Semis +.23%
Telecom -.07%
Lagging Sectors
Papers -1.80%
Airlines -2.73%
Networking -3.60%
Other
Crude Oil 36.36 +.22%
Natural Gas 5.46 +.40%
Gold 403.00 -.37%
Base Metals 106.68 -2.12%
U.S. Dollar 88.43 +.60%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.72% -1.25%
VIX 16.60 +5.13%
Put/Call .98 +22.50%
NYSE Arms 2.74 +60.23%
After-hours Movers
RCKY +14.4% after announcing that it will produce 200,000 pairs of combat boots for U.S. Army.
MMSI +5.93% after announcing it will be added to the S&P 600.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterating Outperform on ADP after NY analyst meeting today. GS initiating coverage on NOC with an Outperform. GS lowering estimates on RTN and lowering rating to Underperform. GS reiterating Outperform on NKE and raising estimates. TheStreet.com says TKLC is a sensible way to play the booming VoIP business.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks fell Tuesday in a wide variety of sectors as investors continue to seek profit-taking opportunities on the heels of the last 12 month's rally. After the close, Procter & Gamble(PG) raised 3Q guidance, raised its dividend and announced a 2-for-1 stock split. Comcast, spurned once in its takeover bid for Disney, will return with a higher offer, President Bob Iger predicted. The war against al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan is almost over and three-quarters of the country is secure, Reuters said. IBM may lose all or some of its $5B contract with JP Morgan after the bank completes its acquisition of Bank One, Bloomberg reported. Eastman Kodak filed a lawsuit accusing Sony of using its patented technology for digital cameras without permission, Bloomberg reported. U.S. health officials said a Wisconsin state Web site that helps residents order cheap mail-order drugs from Canada is illegal and puts the state at risk for patients' lawsuits. The U.S. Senate defeated an attempt by Democrats to make it tougher to make President Bush's $1.7 trillion tax cut permanent. Eli Lilly said a government probe of its marketing may widen to include its best selling drug, Zyprexa.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished the day unchanged, as broad market weakness persisted throughout the day. While the NASDAQ did break the 2000 support level, it was not a convincing break and the relative strength in semis may provide the catalyst for a near-term rally. I took profits in one of my consumer cyclicals and added a semi equipment long on the close, leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. My indicators and analysis are giving conflicting signals, thus I will remain conservatively positioned, with a bias to the long-side, until a more clear resolution to the market's direction is apparent.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,141.11 -.53%
NASDAQ 2,001.20 -.40%
Leading Sectors
Tobacco unch.
Foods unch.
Semis -.05%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banking -1.29%
Oil Service -1.80%
Networking -1.89%
Other
Crude Oil 36.60 +.08%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.41%
Gold 405.40 +1.12%
Base Metals 106.85 -1.96%
U.S. Dollar 88.01 +.11%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -1.49%
VIX 16.31 +3.29%
Put/Call 1.08 +35.0%
NYSE Arms 2.35 +37.43%
Market Movers
FDRY -9.0% on comments from CFO about 1Q.
LSTR +7.3% on comments made during conference call and multiple upgrades.
WYPT +10.0% on acquisition by SOV.
NDN +9.0% after SEC said it didn't need to restate previous quarters.
KIND -16.0% on disappointing 4Q earnings.
GI -14.0% on disappointing 4Q earnings.
Economic Data
None of Note
Recommendations
Goldman reiterating Outperform on KO, PEP, CCE, AMLN, GDT, MDT, PFE and SYMC. Citi Smith Barney says TQNT raising guidance bodes well for largest customer, MOT. Citi is reiterating its Buy ratings on FLEX and JBL. Citi is adding ETR and removing BLC from their recommended list. NOK raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Lehman raised A to Overweight. VRSN raised to Outperform at Raymond James. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com says we are getting very close to a great buying opportunity in the market.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are down across the board on Tuesday. However, semiconductors, a source of weakness recently are outperforming on very positive comments by Texas Instruments after Monday's close. Sony Ericsson Mobile raised its mobile-phone market forecast, saying industry sales will grow "more than" 10%. Cymer's management said high levels of utilization show "no sign of slowing." Sovereign Bancorp said it agreed to buy Waypoint Financial for $980M. Argentina said it may miss a $3.1B loan payment to the IMF today in an attempt to force the lender to back the gov. stance on restructuring $99B of defaulted bonds. The U.S. economy is now expected to grow 4.5% in this year's first half, faster than the 4.2% predicted a month ago. Economists also expect 4%+ growth every quarter this year, something that hasn't happened since the early 80's.
BOTTOM LINE: With very high readings from the Arms Index and Put/call ratio, it is likely stocks will bounce this afternoon. The NASDAQ is holding 2000, an important technical level, and the SOX is outperforming today. I haven't made any trades and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. The Portfolio is up slightly on the day as a few of my long positions are up enough to offset losses elsewhere. If the NASDAQ holds 2000 and semis continue to improve I may add some tech exposure. However, if 2000 breaks convincingly and the overall market continues to weaken I will likely add some shorts.
NASDAQ 2,001.20 -.40%
Leading Sectors
Tobacco unch.
Foods unch.
Semis -.05%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banking -1.29%
Oil Service -1.80%
Networking -1.89%
Other
Crude Oil 36.60 +.08%
Natural Gas 5.42 +.41%
Gold 405.40 +1.12%
Base Metals 106.85 -1.96%
U.S. Dollar 88.01 +.11%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.71% -1.49%
VIX 16.31 +3.29%
Put/Call 1.08 +35.0%
NYSE Arms 2.35 +37.43%
Market Movers
FDRY -9.0% on comments from CFO about 1Q.
LSTR +7.3% on comments made during conference call and multiple upgrades.
WYPT +10.0% on acquisition by SOV.
NDN +9.0% after SEC said it didn't need to restate previous quarters.
KIND -16.0% on disappointing 4Q earnings.
GI -14.0% on disappointing 4Q earnings.
Economic Data
None of Note
Recommendations
Goldman reiterating Outperform on KO, PEP, CCE, AMLN, GDT, MDT, PFE and SYMC. Citi Smith Barney says TQNT raising guidance bodes well for largest customer, MOT. Citi is reiterating its Buy ratings on FLEX and JBL. Citi is adding ETR and removing BLC from their recommended list. NOK raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley. Lehman raised A to Overweight. VRSN raised to Outperform at Raymond James. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com says we are getting very close to a great buying opportunity in the market.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are down across the board on Tuesday. However, semiconductors, a source of weakness recently are outperforming on very positive comments by Texas Instruments after Monday's close. Sony Ericsson Mobile raised its mobile-phone market forecast, saying industry sales will grow "more than" 10%. Cymer's management said high levels of utilization show "no sign of slowing." Sovereign Bancorp said it agreed to buy Waypoint Financial for $980M. Argentina said it may miss a $3.1B loan payment to the IMF today in an attempt to force the lender to back the gov. stance on restructuring $99B of defaulted bonds. The U.S. economy is now expected to grow 4.5% in this year's first half, faster than the 4.2% predicted a month ago. Economists also expect 4%+ growth every quarter this year, something that hasn't happened since the early 80's.
BOTTOM LINE: With very high readings from the Arms Index and Put/call ratio, it is likely stocks will bounce this afternoon. The NASDAQ is holding 2000, an important technical level, and the SOX is outperforming today. I haven't made any trades and the Portfolio is still 50% net long. The Portfolio is up slightly on the day as a few of my long positions are up enough to offset losses elsewhere. If the NASDAQ holds 2000 and semis continue to improve I may add some tech exposure. However, if 2000 breaks convincingly and the overall market continues to weaken I will likely add some shorts.
Tuesday Watch
Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ABS/.20
ANN/.65
FCEL/-.36
KR/.22
IPG/.12
Splits
PII 2-for-1
Economic Data
Redbook Retail Average and ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales
Recommendations
None of Note
Late-Night News
A recent survey by TEC Intl. found that 66% of the CEO's of small to mid-sized businesses plan to hire more workers, while only 6% plan on decreasing payrolls. Motorola said it is closing two semi design units in Singapore and Taiwan as it moves work to China, Hong Kong, Australia and India. Some insurance prices have started falling for U.S. businesses after almost three years of rising premiums, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mixed. China and India are the standouts, up 1.24% and down 1.2%, respectively.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ indicated +.10%.
BOTTOM LINE: Not much in the way of important business news tonight. I will closely monitor the tech sector's reaction to TXN's positive conference call. I suspect tech opens a little higher and weakens throughout the day. The Portfolio is 50% net long and I will look to add shorts on any significant bounce tomorrow morning.
Company/Estimate
ABS/.20
ANN/.65
FCEL/-.36
KR/.22
IPG/.12
Splits
PII 2-for-1
Economic Data
Redbook Retail Average and ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales
Recommendations
None of Note
Late-Night News
A recent survey by TEC Intl. found that 66% of the CEO's of small to mid-sized businesses plan to hire more workers, while only 6% plan on decreasing payrolls. Motorola said it is closing two semi design units in Singapore and Taiwan as it moves work to China, Hong Kong, Australia and India. Some insurance prices have started falling for U.S. businesses after almost three years of rising premiums, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian markets are mixed. China and India are the standouts, up 1.24% and down 1.2%, respectively.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ indicated +.10%.
BOTTOM LINE: Not much in the way of important business news tonight. I will closely monitor the tech sector's reaction to TXN's positive conference call. I suspect tech opens a little higher and weakens throughout the day. The Portfolio is 50% net long and I will look to add shorts on any significant bounce tomorrow morning.
Monday, March 08, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,147.21 -.83%
NASDAQ 2,008.78 -1.90%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.39%
Gaming +.19%
Energy +.18%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.30%
Disk Drives -3.04%
Semis -3.76%
Other
Crude Oil 36.43 -.38%
Natural Gas 5.39 -.09%
Gold 402.30 +.35%
Base Metals 108.99 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 87.90 -.31%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% -1.96%
VIX 15.79 +9.05%
Put/Call .80 +2.56%
NYSE Arms 1.71 +24.82%
After-hours Movers
CYMI +4.36% after boosting 1Q guidance.
TSRA +7.57% after boosting 1Q and 04 guidance and filing secondary.
DIGL +86.8% after announcing that Telecom Italia selected their Network Info. Computer for their Optical Transport Network deployment and testing.
CNXS -19.46% after cutting 4Q forecast.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs said TRB is one of their top sector picks. GS said TRB's help-wanted revenues posted a gain in the mid-teens in Feb. vs. Jan.'s 4% Y/Y increase. This represents the company's best help-wanted performance in 4 years. GS reiterating Outperform on KO. Finally, Goldman reiterating Underperform on FRNT and cutting estimates. TheStreet.com is reporting that CSCO quarter tracking very well. The Street.com's Cramer says analysts will likely raise PFE numbers a lot on news that Liptor, taken in large doses, can prevent heart attacks. The Steet.com is also saying that SUNW is the big loser in the recent tech spending surveys.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks declined Monday as weakness in semiconductors spread to the rest of tech and then to the entire market. After the close, Texas Instruments(TXN) raised the mid-point of it 1Q sales guidance and boosted it earnings outlook, citing broad-based strength in its chip offerings. TXN's CEO Slaymaker said visibility seems to be improving with increasing backlog. He also said chip prices continue to firm. Slaymaker suggested there is a great deal of room for upside, given prices are still 50% lower than in 2000. Goldman Sachs says the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 14% of the demand for tech products, is forecasted to increase capex by 16% this year vs. a decline of 13% last year. Microsoft told the Justice Dept. that it has no immediate plans to compete with Oracle in selling business software, Reuters reported. Martha Stewart will leave MSO board and the company may change its name, CNN says. Mark McClellan, picked by President Bush to lead the biggest expansion in Medicare in 40 years, said he would help Congress craft a plan to allow Americans to buy cheaper medicines from other countries. Reliant Resources said it was notified that federal prosecutors will seek a criminal indictment against a subsidiary for shutting down Cali. power plants in 2000 to boost prices. AmSouth Bancorp said it is under investigation by the U.S. Attorney in Miss. because of an alleged "fraudulent note scheme," the company said in a regulatory filing.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was down today as my technology positions declined. I sold quite a few of these into the weaknesses, anticipating further declines in the sector. The Portfolio is now 50% net long. Specifically, the semiconductor index led the way on the down-side, breaking down again technically as well. It appears the SOX may test its 200 day m.a. As fundamentals continue to improve and valuations fall, this sub-sector of technology should provide tremendous profits later in the year.
NASDAQ 2,008.78 -1.90%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +.39%
Gaming +.19%
Energy +.18%
Lagging Sectors
Networking -2.30%
Disk Drives -3.04%
Semis -3.76%
Other
Crude Oil 36.43 -.38%
Natural Gas 5.39 -.09%
Gold 402.30 +.35%
Base Metals 108.99 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 87.90 -.31%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.77% -1.96%
VIX 15.79 +9.05%
Put/Call .80 +2.56%
NYSE Arms 1.71 +24.82%
After-hours Movers
CYMI +4.36% after boosting 1Q guidance.
TSRA +7.57% after boosting 1Q and 04 guidance and filing secondary.
DIGL +86.8% after announcing that Telecom Italia selected their Network Info. Computer for their Optical Transport Network deployment and testing.
CNXS -19.46% after cutting 4Q forecast.
Recommendations
Goldman Sachs said TRB is one of their top sector picks. GS said TRB's help-wanted revenues posted a gain in the mid-teens in Feb. vs. Jan.'s 4% Y/Y increase. This represents the company's best help-wanted performance in 4 years. GS reiterating Outperform on KO. Finally, Goldman reiterating Underperform on FRNT and cutting estimates. TheStreet.com is reporting that CSCO quarter tracking very well. The Street.com's Cramer says analysts will likely raise PFE numbers a lot on news that Liptor, taken in large doses, can prevent heart attacks. The Steet.com is also saying that SUNW is the big loser in the recent tech spending surveys.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks declined Monday as weakness in semiconductors spread to the rest of tech and then to the entire market. After the close, Texas Instruments(TXN) raised the mid-point of it 1Q sales guidance and boosted it earnings outlook, citing broad-based strength in its chip offerings. TXN's CEO Slaymaker said visibility seems to be improving with increasing backlog. He also said chip prices continue to firm. Slaymaker suggested there is a great deal of room for upside, given prices are still 50% lower than in 2000. Goldman Sachs says the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 14% of the demand for tech products, is forecasted to increase capex by 16% this year vs. a decline of 13% last year. Microsoft told the Justice Dept. that it has no immediate plans to compete with Oracle in selling business software, Reuters reported. Martha Stewart will leave MSO board and the company may change its name, CNN says. Mark McClellan, picked by President Bush to lead the biggest expansion in Medicare in 40 years, said he would help Congress craft a plan to allow Americans to buy cheaper medicines from other countries. Reliant Resources said it was notified that federal prosecutors will seek a criminal indictment against a subsidiary for shutting down Cali. power plants in 2000 to boost prices. AmSouth Bancorp said it is under investigation by the U.S. Attorney in Miss. because of an alleged "fraudulent note scheme," the company said in a regulatory filing.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio was down today as my technology positions declined. I sold quite a few of these into the weaknesses, anticipating further declines in the sector. The Portfolio is now 50% net long. Specifically, the semiconductor index led the way on the down-side, breaking down again technically as well. It appears the SOX may test its 200 day m.a. As fundamentals continue to improve and valuations fall, this sub-sector of technology should provide tremendous profits later in the year.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,156.78 -.01%
NASDAQ 2,040.92 -.33%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +.82%
Gaming +.77%
Iron/Steel +.72%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.64%
Airlines -.78%
Semis -1.28%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 -.30%
Natural Gas 5.47 +.4%
Gold 400.90 -.15%
Base Metals 108.99 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.03%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.79% -1.47%
VIX 14.59 +.76%
Put/Call .74 -5.13%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -21.90%
Market Movers
MAMA +12.8% after significant pullback last 3 days.
TASR +17% after the company announced completion of a test for a new weapon that shoots charges at least 30 feet.
IMC +26% on purchase by Smucker.
ESA +23.2% on purchase by Blackstone Group.
EVOL -24.6% on disappointing 4Q and lowered guidance.
SGMA -21.6% on disappointing 3Q.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
SFA raised to Buy 2 at UBS. ACS raised to Buy at Deutshe Bank. STM raised to Buy at Legg Mason. CYTC raised to Outperform by Thomas Weisel. SYK raised to Buy at Bank of America. Morgan Stanley cut CNC to Underweight. Bank One raised to Outperform at Keefe, Bruyette. SAP raised to Overweight at Prudential. Goldman Sachs says their CIO survey points to accelerated spending by financial services, communications and manufacturing companies on tech equipment. GS also said CIOs are indicating long-term tech spending growth could stabilize at just below 6%, representing a jump of 110 basis points from the last survey, the largest positive survey-to-survey change they have seen. Citi Smith Barney says results from March's semi purchasing manager survey are most positive for NSM and TXN. Citi thinks semis will start moving up again soon. Citi also saying that recent strong retailing trends are less related to tax refunds than people think. Gary B. Smith, technical analyst for TheStreet.com thinks market will break to the up-side soon. Cramer, of TheStreet.com says JPM going higher and investors sticking with the old tech leaders will continue to underperform.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly mixed mid-day as strength in energy-related stocks is being offset by continued weakness in semiconductors. Alcoa(AA) plans to double its alumina output at its refineries in Suriname and Jamaica to meet surging demand, Reuters reported. J.M. Smucker agreed to purchase Intl. Multifoods Corp. for $840M. Iraq's governing council today signed an interim constitution aimed at preparing the country for the planned handover of power by the U.S.-led coalition on June 30. Telefonica agreed to buy Bellsouth's wireless operations in Latin America for $5.85B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down slightly on the day. No changes have been made yet. I will likely switch around a few positions later in the day, maintaining 100% net long exposure. Semis continue to underperform. It looks like it may take next quarter's earnings reports and guidance to get them going again, both of which I expect to be very good.
NASDAQ 2,040.92 -.33%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +.82%
Gaming +.77%
Iron/Steel +.72%
Lagging Sectors
Defense -.64%
Airlines -.78%
Semis -1.28%
Other
Crude Oil 37.15 -.30%
Natural Gas 5.47 +.4%
Gold 400.90 -.15%
Base Metals 108.99 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.19 +.03%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 3.79% -1.47%
VIX 14.59 +.76%
Put/Call .74 -5.13%
NYSE Arms 1.07 -21.90%
Market Movers
MAMA +12.8% after significant pullback last 3 days.
TASR +17% after the company announced completion of a test for a new weapon that shoots charges at least 30 feet.
IMC +26% on purchase by Smucker.
ESA +23.2% on purchase by Blackstone Group.
EVOL -24.6% on disappointing 4Q and lowered guidance.
SGMA -21.6% on disappointing 3Q.
Economic Data
None of note.
Recommendations
SFA raised to Buy 2 at UBS. ACS raised to Buy at Deutshe Bank. STM raised to Buy at Legg Mason. CYTC raised to Outperform by Thomas Weisel. SYK raised to Buy at Bank of America. Morgan Stanley cut CNC to Underweight. Bank One raised to Outperform at Keefe, Bruyette. SAP raised to Overweight at Prudential. Goldman Sachs says their CIO survey points to accelerated spending by financial services, communications and manufacturing companies on tech equipment. GS also said CIOs are indicating long-term tech spending growth could stabilize at just below 6%, representing a jump of 110 basis points from the last survey, the largest positive survey-to-survey change they have seen. Citi Smith Barney says results from March's semi purchasing manager survey are most positive for NSM and TXN. Citi thinks semis will start moving up again soon. Citi also saying that recent strong retailing trends are less related to tax refunds than people think. Gary B. Smith, technical analyst for TheStreet.com thinks market will break to the up-side soon. Cramer, of TheStreet.com says JPM going higher and investors sticking with the old tech leaders will continue to underperform.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly mixed mid-day as strength in energy-related stocks is being offset by continued weakness in semiconductors. Alcoa(AA) plans to double its alumina output at its refineries in Suriname and Jamaica to meet surging demand, Reuters reported. J.M. Smucker agreed to purchase Intl. Multifoods Corp. for $840M. Iraq's governing council today signed an interim constitution aimed at preparing the country for the planned handover of power by the U.S.-led coalition on June 30. Telefonica agreed to buy Bellsouth's wireless operations in Latin America for $5.85B.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down slightly on the day. No changes have been made yet. I will likely switch around a few positions later in the day, maintaining 100% net long exposure. Semis continue to underperform. It looks like it may take next quarter's earnings reports and guidance to get them going again, both of which I expect to be very good.
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