Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
MO/1.28
BCC/.29
CDWC/.66
CNF/.58
EMC/.08
ET/.19
CYMI/.29
ESV/.09
F/.50
FRX/.56
GNTX/.38
N/.85
MOT/.17
MCHP/.26
LLTC/.30
SUNW/-.04
TASR/.13
TXN/.25
WFC/1.04
Splits
None of note.
Economic Data
Housing Starts for June estimated at 1990K versus 1967K in May.
Building Permits for June estimated at 2000K versus 2097K in May.
Greenspan begins testimony to Congress.
Recommendations
CHTR cut to Reduce at UBS, target $3. China's telecom industry raised to Overweight at CSFB. AUO cut to Sell from Buy at Merrill Lynch. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on IR, ALL, GLW, TPX, CEN and RE.
Late-Night News
Asian indices are mostly lower on concerns that slowing growth in China and the U.S. will further hurt technology shares in the region. China will tighten control on churches in Shanghai, extending surveillance for the first time to include the activities of foreigners, South China Morning Post reported. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon is unwelcome in France until he explains comments calling on French Jews to leave because of increased anti-Semitism, Agence France-Presse said, citing President Chirac. J.P. Morgan Chase is in final talks to buy Egg Plc, the U.K. internet bank, for $2.61 billion, the Financial Times said. Former U.S. National Security Adviser for the Clinton administration Sandy Berger is being investigated for taking home highly classified terror documents, the AP reported. Martha Stewart wants to write a how-to book about her legal experiences, she said in an interview with CNN. China's curbs on short-term lending are too tight and are causing difficulties to companies, the official Economic Daily reported, citing the deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics. Juan del Olmo, the Spanish judge investigating the March 11 terrorist attacks in Madrid, said support cells that helped with the attacks may be taking over operations in the country, the AP reported. China plans to let banks convert mortgage loans and non-performing assets into tradable securities as part of plans to develop the country's bond market, the China Securities Journal reported. Oil-tanker rates for shipping crude oil from the Middle East to Asia surged to their highest in almost three years as near-record oil production from OPEC spurred demand for vessels, Bloomberg said. Striking workers shut LG-Caltex Oil's oil refinery, which accounts for 28% of South Korean fuel production, reducing supplies to plastics makers, transport companies and power stations, Bloomberg reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.07%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly lower in the morning on weakness in Asia. However, I will likely add to market exposure on any extreme weakness as Greenspan's testimony, better earnings reports and a continuation of today's oversold technical bounce in technology shares boosts the major indices later in the day. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 20, 2004
Monday, July 19, 2004
Monday Close
S&P 500 1,100.90 -.04%
NASDAQ 1,883.83 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.46%
Computer Services +.80%
Restaurants +.73%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.57%
Homebuilders -1.57%
Gaming -1.61%
Other
Crude Oil 41.37 -.17%
Natural Gas 5.80 -.22%
Gold 406.40 +.15%
Base Metals 112.61 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.16 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.35% +.13%
VIX 15.17 +5.79%
Put/Call .68 -37.61%
NYSE Arms 1.44 -21.74%
After-hours Movers
JCOM +4.92% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q and 04 guidance.
SSNC +7.42% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q and 04 guidance.
GLW +6.48% after beating 2Q forecast, raising 3Q guidance and saying it is encouraged by Fiber-to-the-premises sales.
CYTK +4.2% after CSFB initiated with Neutral rating, $16 target.
FLEX -10.03% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
CGNX -6.93% on profit-taking after meeting 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q guidance.
RLRN -4.25% after missing 2Q forecast and making negative comments on future growth.
Recommendations
TheStreet.com has a positive column on SYK. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, thinks the selling is overdone in net stocks, he is nibbling at YHOO. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO, STZ and Underperform on RKY, PBG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as a late-afternoon surge boosted technology shares. After the close, Sony and Bertelsmann's planned merger of their music businesses was approved by the European Commission a day earlier than expected, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Northwest Airlines may get competition in Detroit, its biggest airport hub, from discount carrier JetBlue, the Detroit News reported. U.S. investors should consider putting money into loan funds instead of bonds as interest rates rise, Christine Benz, associate director of fund analysis at Morningstar told CNN. Corning, the world's largest maker of fiber-optic cable, reported that sales rose 29% to $971 million on increased purchases of glass used in liquid-crystal displays, Bloomberg said. Allstate, the second-largest U.S. auto and home insurer, said second-quarter earnings rose 76% as losses from natural catastrophes fell and it targeted clients that file the fewest claims, Bloomberg reported. Halliburton said the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas subpoenaed documents related to the company's operations in Iran, Bloomberg said. Documents obtained by Human Rights Watch show that Sudanese government officials helped recruit and arm an Arab militia group responsible for abuses in the country's western Darfur province, Bloomberg reported. Researchers have discovered a genetic defect that may cause sudden infant death syndrome in some children, according to a National Academy of Science study. Molson and No. 3 U.S. brewer Coors confirmed media reports that they are in advanced discussions about a possible merger, Bloomberg reported. Winn-Dixie Stores agreed to include protections for gay and lesbian workers after a request from two of New York City's five public employee pension funds, which hold $1.57 million in the supermarket chain's stock, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my Chinese ADR longs and weakness in my medical shorts. I took profits in a few retail shorts in the afternoon and added a some beaten up technology longs, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is DITC and I am using an $18 stop-loss on this position. The Advance/Decline line improved in the afternoon as well as the overall tone of trading. Many technology stocks have reached levels that should prompt more bargain-hunting later this week. I expect positive reports from Motorola, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, SAP and Qualcomm to also provide catalysts for positive performance by tech stocks in the near-term. However, any rally will likely be short-lived as I expect more weakness later in the month on earnings worries, political fears and relatively high investor complacency.
NASDAQ 1,883.83 +.04%
Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.46%
Computer Services +.80%
Restaurants +.73%
Lagging Sectors
I-Banks -1.57%
Homebuilders -1.57%
Gaming -1.61%
Other
Crude Oil 41.37 -.17%
Natural Gas 5.80 -.22%
Gold 406.40 +.15%
Base Metals 112.61 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.16 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.35% +.13%
VIX 15.17 +5.79%
Put/Call .68 -37.61%
NYSE Arms 1.44 -21.74%
After-hours Movers
JCOM +4.92% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q and 04 guidance.
SSNC +7.42% after beating 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q and 04 guidance.
GLW +6.48% after beating 2Q forecast, raising 3Q guidance and saying it is encouraged by Fiber-to-the-premises sales.
CYTK +4.2% after CSFB initiated with Neutral rating, $16 target.
FLEX -10.03% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q guidance.
CGNX -6.93% on profit-taking after meeting 2Q estimates and boosting 3Q guidance.
RLRN -4.25% after missing 2Q forecast and making negative comments on future growth.
Recommendations
TheStreet.com has a positive column on SYK. Jim Cramer, of TheStreet.com, thinks the selling is overdone in net stocks, he is nibbling at YHOO. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on KO, STZ and Underperform on RKY, PBG.
After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished mixed today as a late-afternoon surge boosted technology shares. After the close, Sony and Bertelsmann's planned merger of their music businesses was approved by the European Commission a day earlier than expected, Dow Jones Newswires reported. Northwest Airlines may get competition in Detroit, its biggest airport hub, from discount carrier JetBlue, the Detroit News reported. U.S. investors should consider putting money into loan funds instead of bonds as interest rates rise, Christine Benz, associate director of fund analysis at Morningstar told CNN. Corning, the world's largest maker of fiber-optic cable, reported that sales rose 29% to $971 million on increased purchases of glass used in liquid-crystal displays, Bloomberg said. Allstate, the second-largest U.S. auto and home insurer, said second-quarter earnings rose 76% as losses from natural catastrophes fell and it targeted clients that file the fewest claims, Bloomberg reported. Halliburton said the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Texas subpoenaed documents related to the company's operations in Iran, Bloomberg said. Documents obtained by Human Rights Watch show that Sudanese government officials helped recruit and arm an Arab militia group responsible for abuses in the country's western Darfur province, Bloomberg reported. Researchers have discovered a genetic defect that may cause sudden infant death syndrome in some children, according to a National Academy of Science study. Molson and No. 3 U.S. brewer Coors confirmed media reports that they are in advanced discussions about a possible merger, Bloomberg reported. Winn-Dixie Stores agreed to include protections for gay and lesbian workers after a request from two of New York City's five public employee pension funds, which hold $1.57 million in the supermarket chain's stock, Bloomberg said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on strength in my Chinese ADR longs and weakness in my medical shorts. I took profits in a few retail shorts in the afternoon and added a some beaten up technology longs, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 50% net long. One of my new longs is DITC and I am using an $18 stop-loss on this position. The Advance/Decline line improved in the afternoon as well as the overall tone of trading. Many technology stocks have reached levels that should prompt more bargain-hunting later this week. I expect positive reports from Motorola, Microsoft, Amazon, Broadcom, SAP and Qualcomm to also provide catalysts for positive performance by tech stocks in the near-term. However, any rally will likely be short-lived as I expect more weakness later in the month on earnings worries, political fears and relatively high investor complacency.
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,098.43 -.28%
NASDAQ 1,875.20 -.41%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.62%
Airlines +.56%
Computer Boxmakers +.48%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.79%
Homebuilders -1.89%
Biotech -2.52%
Other
Crude Oil 41.57 +.56%
Natural Gas 5.84 -.80%
Gold 406.10 -.15
Base Metals 112.61 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.16 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.36% +.22%
VIX 15.51 +8.16%
Put/Call .66 -39.45%
NYSE Arms 1.61 -12.50%
Market Movers
TASR -6.65% after the NY Times reported an increasing number of people have died after being shocked by Tasers.
BSX -3.88% on further sell-off after recalling 96,000 heart stents after 3 patients died and 43 were injured during implant surgery.
MMM -5.44% after slightly missing 2Q revenue forecast, lowering 3Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
NFLX -9.2% after Thomas Weisel downgrade to Peerperform.
NTMD +108.2% after saying its experimental drug BiDil increased the survival of African Americans with heart failure in a study.
BDK +10.6% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q and 04 guidance and agreeing to buy the tools business of Pentair.
SSNC +10.03% after JP Morgan upgrade to Overweight.
SWFT +7.96% after beating 2Q estimates substantially.
INSP -11.2% after announcing a partnership with Amplify.
LM -9.1% after missing 1Q estimates.
LXK -6.1% after slightly missing 2Q revenue estimate and lowering 3Q estimate.
Economic Data
NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 67 in July versus estimates of 67 and an upwardly revised reading of 68 in June.
Recommendations
AMX raised to Buy at UBS, target $44.07. SSNC raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SIR rated Outperform at CSFB, target $33. PPDI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel, target $42. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MSFT, BSX, ITT, FS and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on RKY. Citi SmithBarney raised SONSE to Buy, target $5.50. Citi reiterated Buy on HAS, target $24. Citi reiterated Buy on COX, target $34.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on continuing earnings worries, stubbornly high oil prices and weakness in internet-related shares. The Bush administration is under pressure to develop policies to deal with Iran, as a pending report will say the country allowed terrorists to pass through its borders and as concern grows about the nation's nuclear weapon capacity, the Washington Post said. A U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee report raises serious questions about the credibility of former diplomat Joseph Wilson, whose wife, Valerie Plame, was publicly identified as a CIA operative, the Wall Street Journal reported. Lawyers who led a class-action lawsuit against AT&T Wireless Services could receive $3.75 million while customers won't receive any cash in the settlement, the Rocky Mountain News reported. Real estate prices in Baghdad are rising as wealthy Iraqis who guarded their money while Saddam controlled the country begin to spend, the LA Times said. Real estate prices in Iraq could multiply 10 times in two to three years if the nation becomes more secure, the Times said. Nasdaq is planning to increase the number of its non-U.S. listed companies by 50% to boost its global presence, the Financial Times said. General Dynamics has won a contract to supply U.S. troops with handheld radios, valued at $5-$10 billion, CNBC reported. Boeing won an order from Emirates airlines for four 777 aircraft with an additional nine options, valuing the contract at as much as $2.96 billion. Johnson & Johnson may sell more heart stents after Boston Scientific expanded a recall Friday of its Taxus stent, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher today as my retail and medical shorts are falling and Chinese ADR longs are rising. I have not traded this morning and the Portfolio is still 25% net short. The market's tone continues to deteriorate and investor complacency remains relatively high. The probability of the Fed raising rates in August is falling. Recent inflation data and a slowing in U.S. economic growth from blistering levels to more sustainable rates may prompt the Fed to adopt a wait and see approach with respect to raising rates. Greenspan's comments over the next 2 days should make his intentions evident. I would expect a tradable rally under this scenario.
NASDAQ 1,875.20 -.41%
Leading Sectors
Restaurants +.62%
Airlines +.56%
Computer Boxmakers +.48%
Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.79%
Homebuilders -1.89%
Biotech -2.52%
Other
Crude Oil 41.57 +.56%
Natural Gas 5.84 -.80%
Gold 406.10 -.15
Base Metals 112.61 -.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.16 +.02%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.36% +.22%
VIX 15.51 +8.16%
Put/Call .66 -39.45%
NYSE Arms 1.61 -12.50%
Market Movers
TASR -6.65% after the NY Times reported an increasing number of people have died after being shocked by Tasers.
BSX -3.88% on further sell-off after recalling 96,000 heart stents after 3 patients died and 43 were injured during implant surgery.
MMM -5.44% after slightly missing 2Q revenue forecast, lowering 3Q estimates and raising 04 forecast.
NFLX -9.2% after Thomas Weisel downgrade to Peerperform.
NTMD +108.2% after saying its experimental drug BiDil increased the survival of African Americans with heart failure in a study.
BDK +10.6% after beating 2Q estimates, raising 3Q and 04 guidance and agreeing to buy the tools business of Pentair.
SSNC +10.03% after JP Morgan upgrade to Overweight.
SWFT +7.96% after beating 2Q estimates substantially.
INSP -11.2% after announcing a partnership with Amplify.
LM -9.1% after missing 1Q estimates.
LXK -6.1% after slightly missing 2Q revenue estimate and lowering 3Q estimate.
Economic Data
NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 67 in July versus estimates of 67 and an upwardly revised reading of 68 in June.
Recommendations
AMX raised to Buy at UBS, target $44.07. SSNC raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. SIR rated Outperform at CSFB, target $33. PPDI raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel, target $42. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MSFT, BSX, ITT, FS and INTC. Goldman reiterated Underperform on RKY. Citi SmithBarney raised SONSE to Buy, target $5.50. Citi reiterated Buy on HAS, target $24. Citi reiterated Buy on COX, target $34.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on continuing earnings worries, stubbornly high oil prices and weakness in internet-related shares. The Bush administration is under pressure to develop policies to deal with Iran, as a pending report will say the country allowed terrorists to pass through its borders and as concern grows about the nation's nuclear weapon capacity, the Washington Post said. A U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee report raises serious questions about the credibility of former diplomat Joseph Wilson, whose wife, Valerie Plame, was publicly identified as a CIA operative, the Wall Street Journal reported. Lawyers who led a class-action lawsuit against AT&T Wireless Services could receive $3.75 million while customers won't receive any cash in the settlement, the Rocky Mountain News reported. Real estate prices in Baghdad are rising as wealthy Iraqis who guarded their money while Saddam controlled the country begin to spend, the LA Times said. Real estate prices in Iraq could multiply 10 times in two to three years if the nation becomes more secure, the Times said. Nasdaq is planning to increase the number of its non-U.S. listed companies by 50% to boost its global presence, the Financial Times said. General Dynamics has won a contract to supply U.S. troops with handheld radios, valued at $5-$10 billion, CNBC reported. Boeing won an order from Emirates airlines for four 777 aircraft with an additional nine options, valuing the contract at as much as $2.96 billion. Johnson & Johnson may sell more heart stents after Boston Scientific expanded a recall Friday of its Taxus stent, Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher today as my retail and medical shorts are falling and Chinese ADR longs are rising. I have not traded this morning and the Portfolio is still 25% net short. The market's tone continues to deteriorate and investor complacency remains relatively high. The probability of the Fed raising rates in August is falling. Recent inflation data and a slowing in U.S. economic growth from blistering levels to more sustainable rates may prompt the Fed to adopt a wait and see approach with respect to raising rates. Greenspan's comments over the next 2 days should make his intentions evident. I would expect a tradable rally under this scenario.
Monday Watch
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
MMM/.96
ALL/1.15
DAL/-2.37
GLW/.09
FLEX/.14
JCOM/.28
JDAS/.04
LXK/.97
Splits
BLUD 3-for-2
Economic Data
NAHB Housing Market Index for July estimated at 67 versus 67 in June.
Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on DSCP, ERES, IHP, MCD and mixed on ATG, FBC. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on JNS, HOV, TASR, FIC, mixed on FII, CSGP, COGN and negative on MSO. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on STZ, GE, FRO and mixed on ARO, GD, MGM, NT. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on PD, AET, BER, UNH, MCD, APD, CMCSA, DJ, VIA, KO, LLY, AMGN, IACI. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on LU, NT, CSCO, JNPR, CIEN, AV, CKR and negative on INTC, YUM. Barron's had positive comments on LOJN, LCUT, MCRS, CGNX, MBT, VIP, TROW and negative comments on KMRT. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on ITT, BSX and Underperform on DPH.
Weekend News
An al-Qaeda-linked group threatened Italy with terror attacks for the second time in two day, Agence France-Presse reported. The U.S. Justice Department said it doesn't plan to examine federal laws to determine if the presidential election may be postponed because of the threat of a terrorist attack, the NY Times reported. At least 50 people have died after being shocked by Tasers, including six people last month, the NY Times reported. An Oracle victory in its antitrust dispute with the U.S. government might prompt consolidation in the software industry, especially after several companies missed sales targets, Barron's reported. Iraqi Interior Minister al-Nakib expects Iraqi police forces to be able to enforce security in the country within eight months, al-Hayat reported. Republican Senator McCain said he wouldn't serve in the Cabinet if Senator Kerry wins the election and he has no interest in replacing Dick Cheney as President Bush's running mate, Time magazine reported. General Electric is offering medical equipment, consulting services and financing to hospitals, boosting revenue in the $2 trillion U.S. healthcare industry, the NY Times said. Venture capital firms such as Sevin Rosen are attracting large numbers of investors, a change in course after a slump in the industry over the past 4 years, the NY Times reported. The Chinese government is ordering hundreds of companies in Shanghai to switch their operations to night time due to power shortages, the BBC reported. Philadelphia may replace Detroit as the largest U.S. urban city with full-scale gaming halls, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. The panel investigating the 9/11 attacks found evidence that officials in Iran helped some al-Qaeda operatives enter the country from Afghanistan, including eight of the men who took part in the attacks, Newsweek reported. Adolph Coors and Molsen are in talks about a possible combination of the two breweries, the Wall Street Journal reported. Intel is delaying the introduction of a chip it has called "the linchpin" of its new product line for notebook computers, Reuters reported. Copper futures may rise for a sixth straight week in New York and London amid speculation that a week-old strike at Grupo Mexico SA's La Caridad complex will spread to sites in Mexico and the U.S., Bloomberg reported. France denounced as "unacceptable" a call by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon for French Jews to emigrate because of increasing anti-Semitism, Agence France-Presse reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.36%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on falling energy prices, an oversold bounce in tech shares and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into the week.
Company/Estimate
MMM/.96
ALL/1.15
DAL/-2.37
GLW/.09
FLEX/.14
JCOM/.28
JDAS/.04
LXK/.97
Splits
BLUD 3-for-2
Economic Data
NAHB Housing Market Index for July estimated at 67 versus 67 in June.
Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on DSCP, ERES, IHP, MCD and mixed on ATG, FBC. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on JNS, HOV, TASR, FIC, mixed on FII, CSGP, COGN and negative on MSO. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on STZ, GE, FRO and mixed on ARO, GD, MGM, NT. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on PD, AET, BER, UNH, MCD, APD, CMCSA, DJ, VIA, KO, LLY, AMGN, IACI. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on LU, NT, CSCO, JNPR, CIEN, AV, CKR and negative on INTC, YUM. Barron's had positive comments on LOJN, LCUT, MCRS, CGNX, MBT, VIP, TROW and negative comments on KMRT. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on ITT, BSX and Underperform on DPH.
Weekend News
An al-Qaeda-linked group threatened Italy with terror attacks for the second time in two day, Agence France-Presse reported. The U.S. Justice Department said it doesn't plan to examine federal laws to determine if the presidential election may be postponed because of the threat of a terrorist attack, the NY Times reported. At least 50 people have died after being shocked by Tasers, including six people last month, the NY Times reported. An Oracle victory in its antitrust dispute with the U.S. government might prompt consolidation in the software industry, especially after several companies missed sales targets, Barron's reported. Iraqi Interior Minister al-Nakib expects Iraqi police forces to be able to enforce security in the country within eight months, al-Hayat reported. Republican Senator McCain said he wouldn't serve in the Cabinet if Senator Kerry wins the election and he has no interest in replacing Dick Cheney as President Bush's running mate, Time magazine reported. General Electric is offering medical equipment, consulting services and financing to hospitals, boosting revenue in the $2 trillion U.S. healthcare industry, the NY Times said. Venture capital firms such as Sevin Rosen are attracting large numbers of investors, a change in course after a slump in the industry over the past 4 years, the NY Times reported. The Chinese government is ordering hundreds of companies in Shanghai to switch their operations to night time due to power shortages, the BBC reported. Philadelphia may replace Detroit as the largest U.S. urban city with full-scale gaming halls, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. The panel investigating the 9/11 attacks found evidence that officials in Iran helped some al-Qaeda operatives enter the country from Afghanistan, including eight of the men who took part in the attacks, Newsweek reported. Adolph Coors and Molsen are in talks about a possible combination of the two breweries, the Wall Street Journal reported. Intel is delaying the introduction of a chip it has called "the linchpin" of its new product line for notebook computers, Reuters reported. Copper futures may rise for a sixth straight week in New York and London amid speculation that a week-old strike at Grupo Mexico SA's La Caridad complex will spread to sites in Mexico and the U.S., Bloomberg reported. France denounced as "unacceptable" a call by Israeli Prime Minister Sharon for French Jews to emigrate because of increasing anti-Semitism, Agence France-Presse reported.
Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.18%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.36%.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning on falling energy prices, an oversold bounce in tech shares and better earnings reports. The Portfolio is 25% net short heading into the week.
Sunday, July 18, 2004
Weekly Outlook
There are a few important economic reports and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports this week include the NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims and Leading Indicators. Housing Starts and Leading Indicators both have market-moving potential.
3M(MMM), Delta Air(DAL), Lexmark(LXK), Corning(GLW), Phillip Morris(MO), EMC Corp.(EMC), Ford Motor(F), Forest Labs(FRX), Taser(TASR), Motorola(MOT), Texas Instruments(TXN), D.R. Horton(DHI), Fannie Mae(FNM), General Dynamics(GD), General Motors(GM), Harrah's Entertainment(HET), ImClone(IMCL), Schlumberger(SLB), Microsoft(MSFT), United Parcel Service(UPS), Amazon(AMZN), Broadcom(BRCM), Office Depot(ODP), International Game Technology(IGT), Nextel Communications(NXTL), SAP AG(SAP) and Qualcomm(QCOM) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. The SEMI Book-to-Bill report, Strategic Research Institute Energy Technology Conference and Greenspan's congressional testimony could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly this week on a bounce in technology stocks from oversold levels, Greenspan's comments, better earnings reports, falling interest rates and a decline in oil. My short-term trading indicators are giving sell signals and the Portfolio is 25% net short heading into the week.
3M(MMM), Delta Air(DAL), Lexmark(LXK), Corning(GLW), Phillip Morris(MO), EMC Corp.(EMC), Ford Motor(F), Forest Labs(FRX), Taser(TASR), Motorola(MOT), Texas Instruments(TXN), D.R. Horton(DHI), Fannie Mae(FNM), General Dynamics(GD), General Motors(GM), Harrah's Entertainment(HET), ImClone(IMCL), Schlumberger(SLB), Microsoft(MSFT), United Parcel Service(UPS), Amazon(AMZN), Broadcom(BRCM), Office Depot(ODP), International Game Technology(IGT), Nextel Communications(NXTL), SAP AG(SAP) and Qualcomm(QCOM) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also a few other events that have market-moving potential. The SEMI Book-to-Bill report, Strategic Research Institute Energy Technology Conference and Greenspan's congressional testimony could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly this week on a bounce in technology stocks from oversold levels, Greenspan's comments, better earnings reports, falling interest rates and a decline in oil. My short-term trading indicators are giving sell signals and the Portfolio is 25% net short heading into the week.
Saturday, July 17, 2004
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