Saturday, April 09, 2005

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,181.20 +.71%


Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was modestly positive. The advance/decline fell slightly, most sectors rose and volume was light. Small-caps, Cyclicals and Tech shares all underperformed for the week as worries over slowing economic growth continued. While I now believe there is a high probability that oil has seen its highs for the year, the fact that the Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls is only 24.0 likely means a retest of the highs is in the offing. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower, however the AAII % Bulls came in under 30.0 for the third consecutive week. The last time this happened was February 2003. The S&P 500 proceeded to gain around 40% over the following 12 months. On the positive side, long-term interest rates and the US dollar were stable on the week, Consumer stocks outperformed, commodity prices fell and mortgage rates declined. The ECRI Future Inflation Gauge fell for the second consecutive month in March and is still below levels in Feb. 2003 and March 2000. Moreover, the Weekly Growth Rate of the ECRI Future Inflation Gauge remains in the downtrend it began in Dec. of 2004. I continue to believe the markets' recent poor performance is not a result of worries over inflation. However, investors are concerned that high energy prices, slowing global growth, a substantial increase in corporate lawsuits/investigations, lingering overcapacity from the 90s and a hawkish Fed will result in significantly lower US economic growth. Considering the positives last week, the mediocre nature of this week's rally likely portends another bout of weakness during earnings season.

Friday, April 08, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,181.20 +.71%
DJIA 10,461.34 +.55%
NASDAQ 1,999.35 +.73%
Russell 2000 610.75 -.13%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,636.47 +.58%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,022.55 +.37%
S&P Barra Growth 570.40 +.95%
S&P Barra Value 606.41 +.47%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 584.05 +2.09%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 742.80 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Technology 453.73 -1.01%
Transports 3,596.70 -2.44%
Utilities 362.01 +.48%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 24.0 -14.0%
Put/Call .93 -10.58%
NYSE Arms 1.39 -27.98%
Volatility(VIX) 12.62 -10.43%
ISE Sentiment 163.00 +48.18%
AAII % Bulls 27.74 -2.43%
US Dollar 84.41 unch.
CRB 304.32 -2.42%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.32 -6.98%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.66 -11.13%
Natural Gas 7.24 -6.25%
Heating Oil 149.72 -10.13%
Gold 429.00 +.73%
Base Metals 129.69 -.49%
Copper 150.80 +.97%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47 +.47%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.93% -1.82%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +5.53%
Biotech +3.37%
HMOs +2.61%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -2.52%
Energy -2.65%
Steel -2.79%

*5-Day % Change

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,187.23 -.33%
DJIA 10,509.08 -.36%
NASDAQ 2,009.25 -.47%
Russell 2000 614.72 -.81%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,694.16 -.38%
S&P Barra Growth 573.16 -.31%
S&P Barra Value 609.60 -.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 586.31 -.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 747.28 -.58%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.47 -.41%
Transports 3,618.54 -2.70%
Utilities 364.20 -.33%
Put/Call .75 +8.70%
NYSE Arms 1.02 +35.11%
Volatility(VIX) 11.66 -5.52%
ISE Sentiment 175.00 +29.63%
US Dollar 84.52 -.41%
CRB 303.98 -.75%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.05 -1.77%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.20 -3.06%
Natural Gas 7.27 -1.24%
Heating Oil 149.00 -2.51%
Gold 428.80 +.09%
Base Metals 129.69 +.47%
Copper 150.60 -.03%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -.08%

Leading Sectors
Semis +.16%
Broadcasting +.10%
Foods +.06%

Lagging Sectors
HMOs -1.28%
Oil Service -1.33%
Transports -2.61%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are lower mid-day on a consolidation of recent gains and worries over slowing growth. The Portfolio is slightly lower on losses in my Internet and Retail longs. I added to a few Internet longs this morning and added a new short, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure 50% net long. One of my new shorts is ATI and I am using a $26.5 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, almost every sector is lower and volume is very light. Small-caps are underperforming, while measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is modestly negative, considering the decline in energy prices, the market’s oversold state and stabilizing long-term interest rates. The fact that commodity prices are falling again, even with a decline in the US dollar, is a big positive. One more bout of inflation worries is likely over the coming weeks, however I believe inflation fears will peak for the year during this period. While I think the odds that oil has peaked for the year have risen substantially, the fact that trader sentiment towards crude is bearish likely means a test of recent highs over the coming weeks. I expect US stocks to rise modestly into the close as optimism over falling energy prices and stabilizing long-term rates more than offsets worries over slowing global growth.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The US dollar will rise this year and next after three years of losses against the euro and the yen, a JP Morgan survey of corporate customers shows.
- Growth in demand for oil tankers will slow in 2005 for a second straight year as near-record prices curb oil consumption.
- Rising energy prices and higher interest rates will take a larger bite out of consumer spending and cause the US economy to slow later this year, a Bloomberg News survey of economists found.
- China will use 380,000 metric tons of steel, or .1% of its output last year, to build stadiums and gymnasiums for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, the China Iron and Steel Association said.
- Crude oil is falling for a fifth day in NY, the longest decline since August, on signs that US inventories will be sufficient to meet increased demand by refiners making gasoline.
- ShopKo Stores, a discounter with 360 stores, agreed to be acquired by a private equity firm for $715.2 million, the second buyout of a retail company in two months.

Wall Street Journal:
- Oil prices are unlikely to stay at their present high level, according to Lee Raymond, Exxon Mobil Corp.’s chief executive officer.
- Transactions between Delphi Corp. and BBK Ltd. are being investigated by the SEC as part of an inquiry into Delphi’s accounting.
- The private investors who own Warner Music Group stand to make $329.4 million in cash after an IPO next month.
- A bill tightening supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may pass this year after the administration said it will be flexible over restrictions on the two biggest buyers of US home mortgages.
- The FDA has been asked by medical and environmental groups to curtail use of antibiotics in animal feed because of possible dangers to human health.
- A bill tightening supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may pass this year after the administration said it will be flexible over restrictions on the two biggest buyers of US home mortgages.

NY Times:
- Documents for an agreement between AIG International Group and a unit of Berkshire Hathaway were altered two months after the accord was reached.

TradeWinds:
- The global container shipping fleet’s carrying capacity is set to grow by 60% through 2008 and may create an oversupply of shipping space, citing shipbrokers.

Les Echos:
- STMicroelectronics NV, Europe’s largest semiconductor maker, will be ready to deliver the first chips for high-definition television decoders using the MPEG-4 standard in September.

Links of Interest

Market Internals
Movers & Shakers
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Economic Releases

None of note