Monday, February 12, 2007

Stocks Finish Modestly Lower on Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,433.37 -.33%
DJIA 12,552.55 -.22%
NASDAQ 2,450.38 -.38%
Russell 2000 805.79 -.16%
Wilshire 5000 14,447.69 -.36%
Russell 1000 Growth 564.78 -.40%
Russell 1000 Value 826.74 -.35%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 704.22 -.14%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 937.36 -.09%
Morgan Stanley Technology 570.57 -.40%
Transports 4,937.93 -.40%
Utilities 473.12 -.09%
MSCI Emerging Markets 113.99 -1.09%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call 1.16 +24.73%
NYSE Arms 1.11 -7.09%
Volatility(VIX) 11.61 +4.59%
ISE Sentiment 126.0 +13.5%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.64 -3.76%
Reformulated Gasoline 154.65 -4.23%
Natural Gas 7.27 -7.19%
Heating Oil 164.10 -4.88%
Gold 666.30 -.89%
Base Metals 218.58 +.12%
Copper 248.10 -1.57%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.80% +2 basis points
US Dollar 85.13 +.29%
CRB Index 299.69 -1.80%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.09%
HMOs +.67%
Computer Hardware +.42%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.38%
Gaming -1.41%
REITs -1.89%

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Afternoon Recommendations
RBC Capital Markets:
- Upgraded (CCI) to Sector Outperform, raised target to $40.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil plunged below $58/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia told Asian refiners to expect more shipments next month and the nation’s oil minister said OPEC has no need to further rein in production.
- Latin American shares fell for a fourth session, led by Mexican cement-maker Cemex SAB, after Citigroup analysts said “euphoria” had driven prices to high.
- Gold prices in NY fell after the US dollar strengthened, reducing the metal’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
- Negotiators produced a draft accord early today aimed at ending North Korea’s nuclear-bomb program, the chief US negotiator, Christopher Hill, said in Beijing.
- Onyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s(ONXX) shares doubled after the company said its only drug, Nexavar, helped patients with liver cancer stay alive longer.
- Caremark RX(CMX) shareholders should vote against CVS Corp.’s(CVS) offer to buy the company for $23.1 billion, investor advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services said.

Handelsblatt:
- Over a third of German companies plan to increase spending this year, compared with less than 7% which may cut investment, citing a survey by polling company Psephos.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs and Telecom longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was modestly negative today as the advance/decline line finished slightly lower, most sectors declined and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish. However, breadth wasn't too bad and ten sectors I follow actually rose. Meaningful losses were mainly confined to the REIT, I-banking, Energy and Gaming sectors. Oil is down $2.08/bbl. and failed to mount any sort of rally throughout the day. I continue to believe that almost all investors, both market bulls and bears, believe oil will remain high indefinitely. I still suspect a fall in oil below $50/bbl. will be a seminal event with respect to investor psychology this year. The U.S. budget surplus widened again in January on a 13% year-over-year surge in revenues as a result of the "bulletproof US economy." The U.S. Dollar Index is very close to another technical breakout to the upside. A breakout in the dollar would be another negative for commodities.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs and Telecom longs. I added to my Google(GOOG) long and took some profits in another long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above-average. Theflyonthewall.com is pointing to a post on AppleInsider, suggesting that Apple (AAPL) could see as much as $250-$300 for each subscriber it helps lure to Cingular's network. This would meaningfully boost margins and result in a substantial round of upward earnings estimate revisions for the stock. I remain long the stock. I expect US stocks to trade mixed into the close from current levels as falling energy prices offsets profit-taking.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Crude oil fell $2/bbl. to below $58/bbl. in NY after Saudi Arabia told Asian refiners to expect more shipments next month and the nation’s oil minister said OPEC has no need to further rein in production.
- The price of prime London homes rose at the fastest pace in at least 31 years last month as wealthy European, Indian and Middle Eastern buyers competed for houses and apartments in Belgravia and Knightsbridge.
- Envoys in Beijing trying to prevent a collapse in talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear arms program may come to an agreement on the secluded state’s demand for energy assistance that has stymied the negotiations.
- Home Depot(HD) may sell its wholesale unit after investors said the company should get rid of the division because of its low profits.
- Tenaris SA, the world’s largest maker of seamless steel in oil and gas pipes, agreed to buy Hydril(HYDL) for as much as $2.2 billion to gain valves, meters and related equipment used in deepwater drilling and nature reserves.
- Four Seasons Hotels Inc.(FS) agreed to be taken private by Microsoft(MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates, Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and the company’s CEO for $3.8 billion including debt.
- The French oil-exploration company Etablissements Maurel & Prom said it made a “significant” discovery in Colombia.
- Gold is falling $7/oz. as the US Dollar Index nears a technical breakout and oil prices fall, leading to diminished inflation worries by speculators.
- The world’s largest funds investing in hedge funds attracted more than twice as much new capital last year as in 2005 while the assets they control rose to $820 billion, a survey found. Funds of hedge funds returned 10% on average last year, substantially underperforming the S&P 500’s 15.8% gain and less than the average gain of 13% for hedge funds, according to Hedge Fund Research.

Wall Street Journal:
- Blackstone Group LP(BLK) leveraged buyout firm may today buy Pinnacle Foods Corp., maker of Duncan Hines cake mixes and Mrs. Paul’s frozen fish, for about $1.2 billion plus an assumption of $900 million in debt.
- Continental Western European countries’ economies may be held back by a culture that attempts to protect workers and the community from market forces over innovation, Nobel prizewinner Edmund Phelps said. Employment in France, Germany and Italy has lagged behind the US, Britain, Ireland and Canada, and productivity is growing more slowly than in the US.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) is considering forgoing outside offers and doing its own restructuring.
- US productivity gains are likely to continue for the indefinite future, citing the annual Economic Report of the President.
- Google(GOOG) has signed an agreement to bring full-length episodes of old television shows such as “I Spy” and “Gumby” to its YouTube video-sharing site.

Fortune:
- Chicago may sell Midway International Airport for as much as $3 billion, citing the city’s CFO.

Vedomosti:
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) is considering some of Russia’s largest retail chains as partners to expand in the region.

Folha de S. Paulo:
- Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of ethanol from sugarcane juice, may develop technology to make the biofuel from the tropical plant’s cellulose as early as 2009. Waste from the processing of cane juice into sugar and ethanol contains enough cellulose to boost output of the biofuel by 50%, citing researcher Carlos Rossell of the Univ. of Campinas. Rossell said Brazil can start commercial production of ethanol from sugarcane cellulose in two to five years.

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Blog of Interest

TraderMike by Michael Seneadza

Sunday, February 11, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- President Bush said his plan to cut the nation’s dependence on oil is a key area for bipartisan action in Congress, and called on lawmakers to boost funding for alternative fuels research. “Every member of Congress who cares about strengthening the economy, protecting our national security and confronting climate change should support the energy initiatives I have set out,” Bush said in his weekly radio address.
- Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial countries narrowed differences over risks posed by hedge funds, agreeing on further consultations that may affect the lightly regulated pools of capital.
- Hedge funds charge too much in fees for performance that frequently mimics major stock indexes, said Russell Read, chief investment officer of the $225 billion California Public Employees Retirement System.
- Rohan Walsh, who helps manage almost $2 billion as head of Australian equities at Invesco Asset Management, says commodities will trend down in 2008-2009.
- Nasdaq Stock Market’s(NDAQ) hostile bid for London Stock Exchange failed for the second time in 11 months as the majority of shareholders in the UK company spurned the $5.3 billion offer.
- The Palestinian national unity government Hamas and Fatah plan to form won’t recognize Israel, an aide to Prime Minister Ismael Hania said.
- Iran may agree to process only low-level uranium and expects the dispute about its nuclear program to be solved within four months if Western leaders drop their call for prior suspension of enrichment, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said.
- Hindalco Industries Ltd., India’s biggest aluminum producer, agreed to buy all of Novelis Inc.(NVL) of Atlanta, GA for almost $6 billion in cash, aiming to gain sheet mills that supply can makers and car companies.
- Bond investors in Japan, the biggest sellers of US government debt last year, are returning to Treasuries as the US dollar gains and yields rise.
- The yen may decline after the Group of Seven industrial nations stopped short of saying that the currency’s weakness is a threat to the global economy.
- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations were “open-minded” about allowing the fund to sell part of its gold reserves.
- Iran is counting on Russia to prevent further UN sanctions over its nuclear program, an envoy to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said.
- India is stepping up purchases of US dollars after a 5% gain in the rupee in six months eroded corporate profits and threatened to slow the economy.
- Harvard University named Drew Gilpin Faust its president, appointing the first woman to lead the oldest college in the US as it tries to med faculty-administration relations damaged under predecessor Lawrence Summers.
- The Australian dollar may fall a second day on speculation Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens will lower his inflation forecast, making an interest rate hike less likely.
- Crude oil fell in NY on speculation supplies are sufficient to meet increased heating demand from a late cold-snap in the US. Output from the Elk Hills field, the seventh largest on the US mainland, may resume “in a few days” once repairs to fire damage are completed, Occidental Petroleum Corp.(OXY) said late Feb. 9.
- Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest state oil company, will increase supply to Asian refiners in March.
- Vietnam may impose capital controls next month to stem the dong’s two-month rally, reversing gains in the world’s best-performing stock market this year, said Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The government may put restrictions on overseas funds on March 1 to deter speculators, while seeking to retain long-term investors, wrote Alex Joiner and Amy Auster, economists at Australia’s third-biggest bank, citing unidentified reports from financial institutions.
- The US Virgin Islands offers hedge funds a 90% tax credit for relocating in the sunny locale. Almost have of the funds that have moved there since 2001 have left, citing IRS harassment.

Wall Street Journal:
- The race is on to install solar-energy panels in American homes, thanks in part to generous government incentives such as California's $3.2 billion solar initiative, which was launched in January.

Orange County Register:
- Broadcom Corp.(BRCM) Chairman Henry Samueli said his company will supply chips for Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone, citing court documents.

NY Times:
- The most lethal weapon used against US troops in Iraq is being supplied by Iran.
- India’s economy may overheat as prices, especially for food, rise at more than twice the rate of industrialized nations, raising concern of an inflationary spiral.
- The US Congress has learned to circumvent their own ethics rules prohibiting lobbyists from treating them to meals, trips, stadium box seats or the discounted use of private jets. Among the events during the first two months of the new Congress that lobbyists were invited to help sponsor were birthday parties at $1,000 a person, martinis and margaritas at Washington restaurants for $1,000 a person, hunting and fishing trips for $5,000, weekend golf tournaments starting at $2,500 and a Who concert for $1,250 a seat.
- Surfing has emerged as a status sport like skiing and golf, attracting executives and professionals who talk business between waves.

Washington Post:
- Rudolph Giuliani received four standing ovations when he spoke at the California Republican Party convention, as he sought to gauge whether the group, which has more conservative views than his, would accept him.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey, are losing slot-machine revenue to competition form Pennsylvania, and new rules limiting smoking may accelerate the trend.

Reuters:
- Rupert Murdoch, of News Corp.(NWS), said on the company's latest conference call that an announcement regarding the launch of the Fox Business Channel would be forthcoming within a week.

LA Times:
- California wineries may cut prices on some vintages because of an overabundance of red wine grapes and increased competition from low-priced imports, citing wine sellers.

Financial Times:
- BP Plc(BP), Europe’s second-biggest oil company, is planning to shake up its board of directors in the wake of a recent series of setbacks.

la Repubblica:
- Italian Industry Minister Pierluigi Bersani within 10 days will introduce a set of measures giving incentives to individuals and businesses to save energy, citing Bersani.

El Nacional:
- Venezuela’s tax authority is set to tax private investments and assets that individuals own abroad as well as in the South American country, citing the proposed tax law’s text.

Asahi:
- North Korea has increased conditions for abandoning its nuclear program at the six-nation talks taking place in Beijing, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said.

Kuwait News Agency:
- Iraq predicts a budget deficit of $7.14 billion in 2007, assuming it sells oil this year for an average price of $50/bbl., citing Iraq’s finance minister. The Iraqi parliament yesterday endorsed spending of $41 billion for this year, clearing the way for development and reconstruction projects that have been delayed while the budget was debated. Crude exports will average 1.7 million barrels a day from Iraq’s southern port.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (COST), (CIT), (APA), (APC), (CHK) and (UNH).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ASF)/.44
- (ANAD)/.05
- (BBOX)/.76
- (NILE)/.31
- (BRO)/.27
- (CEPH)/.91
- (CRL)/.58
- (CHTT)/.37
- (CNA)/1.00
- (FLS)/.74
- (FWRD)/.43
- (GGP)/.28
- (GBE)/.09
- (IRBT)/-.07
- (LTR)/.98
- (PCLN)/.40
- (VECO)/.21
- (YUM)/.79

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget Surplus for January is estimated to rise to $40.0 billion from $21.0 billion in December.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.