New Home Sales Fall

- New Home Sales for February fell to 848K versus estimates of 985K and 882K in January.

BOTTOM LINE: New-home sales in the US unexpectedly fell in February, Bloomberg reported. The median price of a new home fell .3% last month to $250,000 from $250,800 the prior month. The Home Affordability Index is now at the best levels in 20 months, which is helping to stabilize pricing. The supply of homes at the current sales pace rose to 8.1 months’ worth, compared with 7.3 months in January. Purchases fell 26.8% in the Northeast, 7.0% in the South and 20% in the Midwest. Sales soared 24.6% in the West. New home sales for February are more a refection of the activity in February than the recent strong existing home sales report, which reflected more January activity. February saw record cold temperatures and storms, while January weather was relatively mild. It is interesting to note the strong new home sales figure for the West, which was the least affected by the weather. I expect new home sale to bounce back sharply this month.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Quick Summary
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
Today in IBD
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fed Governor Mishkin said inflation is poised to recede gradually to 2%.
- The number of Americans surviving for years after a heart attack is rising, thanks to drugs now prescribed to control long-term risks.
- Abbott Laboratories’(ABT) experimental heart stents may threaten the market dominance of Boston Scientific(BSX) and Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) based on positive results from two studies released today.
- The United Nations Security Council voted unanimously for a resolution freezing the assets of a state-owned Iranian bank and imposing penalties on some military commanders, to push Iran to suspend its nuclear program.
- Venezuela President Hugo Chavez said the government seized 16 private farms and ranches it considers unused, and plans to use the land to raise cattle for meat and milk production. “This is an attack by the state and the people on large land holdings,” Chavez said.
- China is likely to raise interest rates again at least once in the next six months to rein in the supply of money to curb asset bubbles, inflation and excessive investment in factories.
- Copper-mining capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 4.6% from 2006 through 2011, the International Copper Study Group said.
- Ensco International Inc.(ESV), a US oil and natural-gas driller, expects slower growth this year in the rents paid by oil companies for rigs, CEO Rabun said. “You won’t see acceleration of rates you saw in the last 18 months,” Rabun said.
- Mohamed al-Hamli, president of OPEC, said “markets are well supplied” and OPEC will continue to ensure “adequate” oil supplies.
- China’s production of crude steel will rise 13% in 2007, down from 18% last year, as the country’s demand slows, said Luo Binsheng, executive vice-chairman and secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association.
- Chinese President Hu Jintao visits Moscow today, seeking access to Russian oil and natural gas to help cut China’s reliance on the Middle East.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) plans to build its first computer-chip manufacturing plant in China, a $2.5 billion investment that may spur rivals to follow.

Wall Street Journal:
- Tribune Co.(TRB) is likely to accept a buyout proposal from Sam Zell.
- Bulldog Investors founder Philip Goldstein sued Massachusetts securities regulators, alleging the fund’s free-speech rights were violated when it was stopped from giving information on the Internet.
- Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is struggling to attract support from fundraisers in California’s Silicon Valley who earlier backed husband Bill Clinton.

State Street:
- Hedge Fund Research Study March 2007.

NY Times:
- Executive pay filings show that more boards are requiring so-called clawbacks, which allow companies to recover gains made during periods of financial misconduct.
- Apple will not release the iPhone until June, but Leander Kahney, the writer of “The Cult of Mac” blog, posited this week on Wired News that the new phone is already partly responsible for a major change in how the company is perceived. After nearly three decades, Apple is finally being taken seriously not just by the true believers, but by just about everybody.

LA Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) is tutoring political activists and campaigners on how to better use its products, such as YouTube, for campaigns.

MarketWatch.com:
- The stock market is now 4% above its March low, as judged by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Index, however the average NASDAQ timing newsletter is now short the market, according to the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index. This leads contrarians to suspect that more upside is forthcoming.

Sacramento Bee:
- California businesses added 27,600 employees to their payrolls in February, the most since October of last year.

Financial Times:
- DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX) is likely to receive three bids for its Chrysler unit next week after adviser JPMorgan Chase(JPM) asked for initial offers that include business plans and a price by the end of March.
- DreamWorks Animation SKG’s(DWA) decision to produce all its new films using three-dimensional technology from 2009 is an example of how Hollywood studios are planning on boosting box office takings using the once-maligned format.
- UK energy suppliers will be unable to meet the rising demand for renewable energy from their corporate customers this year, citing research by Datamonitor. The shortage means environmental energy restrictions could be relaxed to include nuclear energy.

Economic Daily News:
- United Microelectronics’ solar-cell affiliate NexPower Technology will invest $61 million in a new facility this year.
- Wistron Corp. may stop producing Microsoft’s(MSFT) Xbox games console next year.

Investir:
- Carbone Lorraine SA, the world’s biggest maker of brushes for electric motors, has not witnessed any slowing in demand from the US.

Xinhua:
- China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. is drilling an oil well in southwest China that at 8,875 meters is the deepest in Asia, citing Zhang Xiaopeng, deputy chief engineer of the company’s Southwest China oil and gas unit.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (SBUX), (ORGN), (NLY), (ANH), (OPX) and (RSH).

Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on Managed Care, especially those with strong Medicare Advantage franchises, (HUM), (UNH), CVH), (WLP) and (HNT).

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.11%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (CKP)/.39
- (DG)/.38
- (PVH)/.44
- (SHFL)/.07
- (TIF)/1.05
- (TSAI)/.30
- (TWP)/-.66
- (WAG)/.61

Upcoming Splits
- (KMX) 2-for-1
- (HSC) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for February are estimated at 990K versus 937K in January.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixsed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters
Click here for Stocks in Focus for Monday by MarketWatch

There are a number of economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - New Home Sales

Tues. - Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Index, weekly retail sales

Wed. - MBA Mortgage Apps, Durable Goods Orders, EIA energy inventory data

Thur. - Final 4Q GDP, Final 4Q Personal Consumption, Final 4Q GDP Price Index, Final Core PCE, Initial Jobless Claims

Fri. - Personal Income, PCE Core, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Construction Spending, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Checkpoint Systems(CKP), Dollar General(DG), Shuffle Master(SHFL), Tiffany & Co.(TIF), Transaction Systems Archittects(TSAI), Walgreen(WAG)

Tues. - Accenture(ACN), GameStop(GME), Lennar Corp.(LEN), McCormick & Co.(MKC)

Wed. - Paychex(PAY)

Thur. - AG Edwards(AGE), Carmax(KMX), CKE Restaurants(CKE), Claire’s Stores(CLE), Family Dollar(FDO), Finish Line(FINL), RedHat(RHAT), Solectron(SLR), Steelcase(SCS), Stride Rite Corp.(SRR), Worthington Industries(WOR)

Fri. - Activision(ATVI), Georgia Gulf(GGC), Sonic Solutions(SNIC)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - Lehman Brothers High Yield Bond and Syndicated Loan Conference, (BSX) analyst meeting

Tue. - Lehman High Yield Conference, (SNPS) investor day

Wed. - Lehman High Yield Conference, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, (ADBE) analyst meeting

Thur. - (BRCD) analyst meeting, Banc of America Media/Telecom/Entertainment Conference, Fed’s Lacker speaking

Fri. - BMO Global Fertilizer Conference, Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Bernanke speaking

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on buyout speculation, lower energy prices, short-covering and bargain-hunting. My trading indicators are now giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,436.11 +3.54%*



Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was very bullish as the S&P 500 posted its best weekly gain in four years. The cumulative advance/decline line rose to an all-time high, every sector gained and volume was about average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety finished the week slightly above average levels. The AAII percentage of bulls rose to 43.88% this week from 32.99% the prior week. This reading is still below average levels. The AAII percentage of bears fell to 33.09% this week from 45.36% the prior week. This reading is still above-average levels. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 33.74%, an above-average level. The 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% at the major bear market low during 2002. Moreover, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 37.6%, a very high level seen during only two other periods since tracking began in the 1980s. Those periods were October 1990-July 1991 and March-May 2003, both being near major market bottoms. The extreme readings in the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during those periods peaked at 41.6% on January 31, 1991 and 38.1% on April 10, 2003. We are very close to eclipsing the peak in bearish sentiment during the 2000-2003 market meltdown, which is remarkable considering the macro backdrop now versus then.

Notwithstanding the recent mild pullback, I continue to believe that steadfastly high bearish sentiment in many quarters is mind-boggling, considering the 19.1% rise in the S&P 500 in just over nine months, the 94.6% gain for the S&P 500 since the 2002 major bear market lows, the cumulative advance/decline line just hit a new record high, one of the best August/September/October runs in U.S. history, the fact that the Dow made another all-time high recently and that we are in the early stages of what is historically a very strong period for U.S. equities after a midterm election.

As well, despite recent gains, the forward P/E on the S&P 500 is a very reasonable 15.5, falling from 16.2 at the beginning of the year, due to the historic run of double-digit profit growth increases and recent stock pullback. The S&P P/E multiple has contracted for three consecutive years. It has only contracted four consecutive years two times since 1905. Each point of multiple expansion is equivalent to a 6.6% gain in the S&P 500. Bears still remain stunningly complacent, in my opinion.

As I have said many times over the last few months, the many US stock market bears see every pullback as a major top and every move higher as just another shorting/selling opportunity. I see few signs of capitulation by the bears and their crowded ranks are still swelling by the day. Even most bulls have raised substantial cash of late, anticipating a more meaningful correction. I still sense very few investors believe the market is done with its recent pullback or that stocks could move substantially higher from current levels.

As well, there are many other indicators registering high levels of investor anxiety. The ISE Sentiment Index plunged to an extraordinarily depressed 46.0 just last week. Its all-time low was 36.0 in July of last year, right before the market went on a tear. Moreover, the 10-day moving average of the ISE Sentiment Index made a historic low last week at 87.06.

The NYSE Arms Index hit 15.98 three weeks ago, the highest level since record-keeping began in the 1960s. The three-day moving average of the NYSE Arms hit an amazing 5.46 during that period, also the highest on record. The VIX had its largest one-day percentage increase in history three weeks ago. The CBOE total put/call ratio ten-day moving average hit 1.31 two weeks ago, the highest since at least 1995 when Bloomberg began tracking the number. NYSE short interest surged 10% last month to a new all-time high. Moreover, public short interest continues to soar to record levels as odd-lot shorting recently spiked, and U.S. stock mutual funds have seen outflows for most of the last year, according to AMG Data Services. The percentage of U.S. mutual fund assets in domestic stocks is still the lowest since at least 1984, when record-keeping began.

There has been an historic explosion of hedge funds created with absolute return, low correlation or negative correlation U.S. stock strategies that directly benefit from the perception of a stagnant or declining U.S. stock market. Commodity funds, which typically have a low or negative correlation with stocks, have been created in record numbers. A short-sighted day-trading pessimistic mentality has thoroughly permeated the investment landscape. Research boutiques with a negative bias have sprung up to cater to these many new funds that help pump air into the current U.S. "negativity bubble." Wall Street analysts have made the fewest "buy" calls on stocks this year since Bloomberg began tracking in 1997. "Buy" calls have been trending lower for nine months, despite the big rally in stocks.

Many of the most widely read stories on financial sites are written with a pessimistic slant to gain readers regardless of their accuracy. "Permabears" are more widely followed than ever, despite the market's near-triple digit gain from the major bear market lows during 2002-03. At that major market bottom, "permabulls" had been shunned and chastised for a couple of years. Investment blogger sentiment recently hit extreme levels of pessimism at 18.9% Bulls, 54.1% Bears. Finally, the UltraShort QQQQ ProShares (QID) continue to see soaring volume. There is a high wall of worry for stocks to climb substantially from current levels as the public and many professionals remain very skeptical of this bull market and continue to trade with "one foot out the door."

I continue to believe this is a direct result of the strong belief by the herd that the U.S. is in a long-term trading range or secular bear environment. There is still overwhelming evidence that investment sentiment by the general public regarding U.S. stocks has never been this poor in history, with the Dow just off an all-time high. This is serving to further widen the so-called "wealth gap." I still expect the herd to finally embrace the current bull market this year, which should result in another substantial move higher in the major averages as the S&P 500 breaks out to an all-time high to join the Dow and Russell 2000.

It is hard to believe, after the recent bombardment of pessimism, depression comparisons and "crash" calls, that the average U.S. stock is still doing very well this year. The Value Line Geometric Index(VGY), the best gauge of the broad market, is 4.1% higher as we near quarter's end. Moreover, mid-caps stocks are sporting 5%+ gains already this year. Based on the action over the last month, even more cash has piled up on the sidelines as money market funds recently hit record levels.

I continue to believe that a significant portion of this cash will be deployed into true "growth" companies as their outperformance vs. value stocks gains steam throughout the year. There is massive bull firepower on the sidelines at a time when the supply of stock is still shrinking. I still believe the coming bullish shift in long-term sentiment with respect to U.S. stocks will result in the "mother of all short-covering rallies."

The average 30-year mortgage rate rose 2 basis points this week to 6.16%, which is 64 basis points below July 2006 highs. There is still mounting evidence that the worst of the housing downturn is over, despite recent worries over sub-prime lending, and that sales activity is stabilizing at relatively high levels. About 14% of total mortgage loans are sub-prime. Of those 14%, another 13.3% are delinquent. Thus, only about 2% of total mortgage loans outstanding are currently problematic. I do not believe sub-prime woes are nearly large enough or will become large enough to meaningfully impact the prime market and bring down the U.S. economy. The Fed’s Bernanke said recently that the prime market is still strong and that he sees no spillover from the sub-prime problems. As well, the Fed’s Poole said recently that, “there is no danger to the economy from sub-prime loan defaults.” There are just too many other positives that outweigh this negative. Moreover, the Fed’s Hoenig, Lacker, Plosser, Fisher and Bies all made positive comments recently regarding the prospects for the US housing market. Finally, the ABX-HE-BBB-07-1 sub-prime Index, the source of much concern, has surged 11.7% from its lows three weeks ago.

Mortgage applications fell 2.7% this week, but continue to trend higher with the decline in mortgage rates and healthy job market. Existing Home Sales, which make up around 85% of the US housing market, surged 3.9% in February, the largest gain since December 2003. The NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 36 in February, up from 30 in September. Within the NAHB Housing Index for February, the future sales component came in at 50. The future sales component is now up 35.1% since its cycle low of 37 in September 2006. The Mortgage Bankers Association said recently that the US housing market will “fully regain its footing” by year-end. Moreover, the California Building Industry Association recently gave an upbeat forecast for housing, saying production would be near last year’s brisk levels. Finally, the House Price Index, which was reported recently, rose 1.1% in the fourth quarter of last year versus a 1.0% gain in the third quarter.

Housing inventories have been trending lower and homebuilding stocks have been moving higher. The Housing Index(HGX) has risen 22.1% from July lows, notwithstanding its recent weakness. The Case-Schiller housing futures have improved and are now projecting only a 3.3% decline in the average home price through August, up from projections of a 5.0% decline 7 months ago. Considering the median house has appreciated over 50% during the last few years with record high US home ownership, this would be considered a “soft landing.” The overall negative effects of housing on the US economy and the potential for significant price drops are still being exaggerated by the many stock market bears in hopes of dissuading buyers from stepping up, in my opinion. Housing activity and home equity extractions had been slowing substantially for 2 years and the negative effects were mostly offset by many other very positive aspects of the US economy.

Home values are more important than stock prices to the average American, but the median home has barely declined in value after a historic run-up, while the S&P 500 has risen 19.1% in just over nine months and 94.6% since the Oct. 4, 2002 major bear market low. Americans’ median net worth is still at record high levels as a result, a fact that is generally unrecognized or minimized by the record number of stock market participants that feel it is in their financial and/or political interests to paint a bleak picture of America.

Moreover, energy prices are down significantly, consumer spending remains healthy, unemployment is low by historic standards, interest rates are low, inflation is below average rates and wages are rising at above-average rates. The economy has created 1.38 million jobs in the last eight months. Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that February job cuts fell -3.9% from year-ago levels. As well, the Monster Employment Index hit another record high in February. The 50-week moving average of initial jobless claims has been lower during only two other periods since the 70s. Finally, the unemployment rate is a historically low 4.5%, down from 5.1% in September 2005, notwithstanding fewer real estate-related jobs and significant auto production cutbacks. The unemployment rate’s current 12-month average is 4.6%. It has only been lower during two other periods since the mid-50s.

The Consumer Price Index for February rose 2.4% year-over-year, down from a 4.7% increase in September of 2005. This is meaningfully below the 20-year average of 3.1%. Moreover, the CPI has only been lower during four other periods since the mid-1960s. Many other measures of inflation have recently shown substantial deceleration to below-average rates. The Import Price Index for February rose .2% month-over-month. Moreover, the six-month average of month-over-month import price declines is -0.65%. It has only been lower during three other periods since tracking began in the 1980s. Furthermore, most measures of Americans’ income growth are now almost twice the rate of inflation. Americans’ Average Hourly Earnings rose 4.1% year-over-year in February, substantially above the 3.2% 20-year average. The 10-month moving-average of Americans’ Average Hourly Earnings is currently 4.05%. 1998 was the only year during the 90s expansion that it exceeded current levels. Finally, personal incomes rose 1.0% in January, substantially above estimates of a .3% gain. This rate of income growth has only been exceeded during 13 months over the last two decades.

The benchmark 10-year T-note yield rose 7 basis points for the week as global stock markets rose and recession worries diminished. In my opinion, many investors’ lingering fears over an economic “hard landing” still seem misplaced. The housing slowdown and auto-production cutbacks impacted manufacturing greatly over the last six months, but those drags on growth are starting to subside. Moreover, for all of 2006, US GDP growth was a healthy 3.1%.

While the drag from housing is subsiding, housing activity will not add to economic growth in any meaningful way this year as homebuilders continue to reduce inventories. As well, recent substantial manufacturing inventory de-stocking will help produce below-average growth again this quarter. However, the Fed’s Beige Book report released recently said manufacturing was now “steady or expanding” in most districts. I still expect a smaller GDP deflator, inventory rebuilding, rising auto production, increased business spending and a still healthy service sector to boost US economic growth back to around 3%.

Manufacturing accounts for roughly 12% of US economic growth, while consumer spending accounts for about 70% of growth. U.S. GDP growth came in at a sluggish 1.1% and 0.7% during the first two quarters of 1995. During May 1995, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell below 50, which signals a contraction in activity. It stayed below 50, reaching a low of 45.5, until August 1996. During that period, the S&P 500 soared 31% as its P/E multiple expanded from 16.0 to 17.2. This was well before the stock market bubble began to inflate. As well, manufacturing was more important to overall US economic growth at that time. Stocks can and will rise as P/E multiples expand, even with more average economic and earnings growth.

Weekly retail sales rose 3.7% for the week, which is well above average levels. Moreover, this week's increase is the best weekly rise since October of last year and substantially above last year's 2.5% gain during the same week. Energy prices are down from this time last year, the job market remains healthy, housing has improved, wage growth has accelerated, stocks are higher and inflation has decelerated to below average rates. Many consumers are chomping at the bit to buy new spring clothing after such a warm fall muted holiday clothing sales. Moreover, automakers reported recently that February auto sales substantially exceeded estimates and analysts said Apple Inc.’s(AAPL) Mac computer sales growth exploded to over 100% in January versus 55% in December. Finally, I expect consumer confidence to make new cycle highs later this year as gas prices fall, the job market remains healthy, stocks rise further, home sales stabilize at relatively high levels, inflation decelerates more and interest rates remain low.

Just take a look at commodity charts, gauges of commodity sentiment and inflows into commodity-related funds over the last couple of years. Net assets invested in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index rose to almost $70 billion in 2006 from $15 billion in 2003. There has been a historic mania for commodities by investment funds that has pushed prices significantly higher than where the fundamentals dictate. That mania is now in the stages of unwinding. The CRB Commodities Index, the main source of inflation fears has declined -4.9% over the last 12 months and -14.9% from May highs despite a historic flood of capital into commodity-related funds and numerous potential upside catalysts. Oil has declined $16/bbl from July highs. As well, this year oil plunged $12/bbl. over the first 18 days of trading. Last year, oil rose $2.05/bbl. on the first trading day of the year and $7.40/bbl. through the first three weeks of trading as commodity funds, flush with new capital, drove futures prices higher.

I suspect, given the average commodity hedge fund fell around double-digits last year as the CRB Index dropped 7.4%, that many energy-related funds saw outflows at year-end. Recent reports have also indicated that institutional investors are switching from commodity funds that trade energy futures to hedge funds that buy energy-related equities. The commodity mania has also pumped air into the current US “negativity bubble.” Talk of runaway inflation, drought, world wars, global warming, a US dollar collapse, recession/depression and global pandemics, to name a few, has been fueled by the mania for commodities. In my opinion, that is why it is so easy for most to believe that US housing was in a bubble, but then act shocked when commodities plunge. I continue to believe inflation fears have peaked for this cycle as global economic growth slows to average levels, unit labor costs remain subdued and the mania for commodities continues to reverse course.

The EIA reported this week that gasoline supplies fell more than expectations even as refinery utilization rose. The 10-week moving average of U.S. gasoline supplies is still approaching 8-year highs, notwithstanding recent declines in refinery utilization. Gasoline futures rose for the week, but have plunged 31.3% from September 2005 highs even as some Gulf of Mexico oil production remains shut-in and fears over future production disruptions persist. Gasoline crack spreads are now at levels seen during Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath and last year's euphoric top in oil prices. It will be interesting to see if members of Congress threaten investigations as they did the last time spreads hit current levels. Gasoline crack spreads peaked last August right before oil fell $28/bbl. in less than six months. Is also interesting to note that commercials are selling oil futures into this spike in crack spreads, which is very unusual. The still very elevated level of gas prices will further dampen global fuel demand, sending gas prices still lower over the intermediate-term.

Recently, the EIA lowered second and third quarter global demand growth for oil by 400,000 barrels per day. The 10-week moving-average of US oil inventories is also still approaching 8-year highs, as well. Oil consumption in the 30 OECD countries fell last year for the first time in over two decades, while global economic growth boomed 5.3%. Global demand destruction is pervasive. Since January 2004, global oil demand is only up 1.9%, despite the strongest global growth in almost three decades, while global supplies have increased 4.5%, according to the Energy Intelligence Group. The EIA recently forecast that bio-fuels should rise to the equivalent of more than five million barrels of crude oil production a day within four years.

Recently, Energy Secretary Bodman said the US will likely remove tariffs to boost bio-fuel imports, which should reduce fears over a potential corn shortage. As well, OPEC said recently that global crude oil supply would exceed demand by 100 million barrels by the second quarter of this year. Worldwide oil inventories are poised to begin increasing at an accelerated rate over the next year. There is a very fine line in the crude oil market between perceptions of "significantly supply constrained" and "massive oversupply." One of the main reasons I believe OPEC has been slow to actually meet their pledged cuts has been the fear of losing market share to non-OPEC countries. Moreover, OPEC actually needs lower prices to prevent any further long-term demand destruction. I continue to believe oil is priced at elevated levels on record speculation by investment funds, not fundamentals.

The Amaranth Advisors hedge fund blow-up last year was a prime example of the extent to which many investment funds have been speculating on ever higher energy prices through futures contracts, thus driving the price of the underlying commodity to absurd levels for consumers and businesses. This is considered “paper demand”, which is not real demand for the underlying commodity. Amaranth, a multi-strategy hedge fund, lost about $6.5 billion of its $9.5 billion under management in less than two months speculating mostly on higher natural gas prices. I continue to believe a number of other funds will experience similar fates over the coming months after managers “pressed their bets” in hopes of making up for recent poor performance, which will further pressure energy prices as these funds unwind their leveraged long positions to meet rising investor redemptions. Moreover, the same rampant speculation that has driven the commodity mania will work against energy as downside speculation increases and drives down prices even further than the fundamentals would otherwise dictate.

Cambridge Energy Research, one of the most respected energy research firms in the world, put out a report late last year that drills gaping holes in the belief by most investors of imminent "peak oil" production. Cambridge said that its analysis indicates that the remaining global oil base is actually 3.74 trillion barrels, three times greater than "peak oil" theory proponents say and that the "peak oil" theory is based on faulty analysis. I suspect the substantial contango that still exists in energy futures, which encourages hoarding, will begin to reverse over the coming months as more investors come to the realization that the "peak oil" theory is hugely flawed, global storage tanks fill and Chinese/US demand slows further.

Global crude oil storage capacity utilization is running around 98%. Recent OPEC production cuts have resulted in a complete technical breakdown in crude futures, notwithstanding the recent bounce higher. Spare production capacity, which had been one of the main sources of angst among the many oil bulls, rises with each OPEC cut. As well, demand destruction which is already pervasive globally will only intensify over the coming years as many more alternative energy projects come to the fore. Moreover, many Americans feel as though they are helping fund terrorism or hurting the environment every time they fill up their gas tanks. I do not believe we will ever again see the demand for gas-guzzling vehicles that we saw in recent years, even if gas prices plunge further from current levels, as I expect. If OPEC actually implements all their announced production cuts, with oil still at very high levels and weakening global growth, it will only further deepen resentment towards the cartel and result in even greater long-term demand destruction.

Energy equity insiders are selling into recent relative strength. In the weekly insider selling/buying report this week from the Washington Service, energy insiders were the greatest net sellers. Energy insiders bought $10,102,451 worth of stock last week and sold $363,804,978 worth. The last time energy insiders led sector net sellers was when oil was around $70 per barrel. As well, commercials have been selling into oil price weakness, which is rare, and have been net short for several weeks. The last time commercials were this short oil was in August of last year, again when oil was around $70 per barrel.

I continue to believe oil made a major top last year during the period of historic euphoria surrounding the commodity with prices above $70/bbl. and calls for $100/bbl. oil commonplace. Falling demand growth for oil in emerging market economies, an explosion in alternatives, rising spare production capacity, increasing global refining capacity, the complete debunking of the hugely flawed "peak oil" theory, a firmer U.S. dollar, less demand for gas guzzling vehicles, accelerating non-OPEC production, a reversal of the "contango" in the futures market, a smaller risk premium and essentially full global storage should provide the catalysts for oil to fall to $35 per barrel to $40 per barrel this year. I fully expect oil to test $20 per barrel to $25 per barrel within the next three years.

Natural gas inventories rose more than expectations this week. However, prices for the commodity increased as historic investment fund speculation continued even with supplies now 18.5% above the 5-year average and near all-time high levels for this time of year as winter winds down. Moreover, inventories are still around 80% of their pre-season capacity. Usually natural gas supplies are down to 58% at this point in the year. Furthermore, the EIA recently projected global liquefied natural gas production to soar this year, with the US poised to see a 34.5% surge in imports and another 38.5% increase in 2008. Natural gas prices have collapsed 54.1% since December 2005 highs. Notwithstanding this severe decline, natural gas anywhere near current prices is still ridiculous with absolute inventories poised to hit new records this year. The long-term average price of natural gas is $4.63 with inventories much lower than current levels.

Gold rose only slightly on the week despite the surge in oil prices, more hawkish Fed commentary, a weaker US dollar and the Iranian/UK situation. Copper rose this week on diminished worries over global demand and short-covering. Copper is now 24.6% lower from euphoric highs set last year. I suspect the recent bounce in copper has almost run its course. Natural gas, oil, gold and copper all look both fundamentally and technically weak. The US dollar was mostly unchanged as more hawkish Fed commentary offset lingering worries over housing. The monthly US budget surplus for January was large once again. The US budget deficit is now 1.4% of GDP, well below the 40-year average of 2.3% of GDP.

I continue to believe there is very little chance of another Fed rate hike anytime soon. An eventual rate cut is more likely this year as inflation continues to decelerate substantially. An eventual Fed rate cut should actually boost the dollar as currency speculators anticipate faster US economic activity relative to other developed economies. I expect foreign investors’ demand for US securities to remain strong. Steel stocks outperformed for the week on buyout speculation and the perception that fundamentals are improving. Semis underperformed on lingering inventory concerns.

Current US stock prices are providing longer-term investors very attractive opportunities, in my opinion. In my entire investment career, I have never seen the best “growth” companies in the world priced as cheaply as they are now relative to the broad market. By contrast, “value” stocks are quite expensive in many cases. A CSFB report late last year confirmed this view. The report concluded that on a price-to-cash flow basis growth stocks are cheaper than value stocks for the first time since at least 1977. The entire decline in the S&P 500’s p/e, since the bubble burst in 2000, is attributable to growth stock multiple contraction. Many “value” investors point to the still “low” price/earnings ratios of commodity stocks, notwithstanding their historic price runs over the last few years. However, commodity equities always appear the “cheapest” right before significant price declines. I still expect the most overvalued economically sensitive and emerging market stocks to underperform over the intermediate-term as the manias for those shares subside as global growth slows to more average rates.

The emerging markets’ mania, which has mainly been the by-product of the commodity mania, is likely nearing an end, as well. I continue to keep a close eye on the Vietnam Stock Index(VNINDEX), which has recently dwarfed the Nasdaq’s meteoric rise in the late 90s, rocketing 142.3% higher over the last 12 months. Moreover, it is already 45.6% higher this year. Vietnam said recently that it may impose capital controls to curb gains in the dong. The country may require overseas investors to hold investments in stocks and bonds for a minimum of 12 months, and withdrawal of funds after the 12-month holding period may require 30-days written notice. The bursting of this bubble in Vietnam, which I suspect will begin very soon, may well signal the end of the mania for emerging market stocks. I continue to believe a chain reaction of events has already begun that will result in a substantial increase in demand for US equities.

S&P 500 profits have risen at double-digit rates for 18 consecutive quarters, the best streak since recording keeping began in 1936. Notwithstanding a 94.6% total return(which is equivalent to a 16.1% average annual return) for the S&P 500 since the October 2002 bottom, its forward p/e has contracted relentlessly and now stands at a very reasonable 15.5. The 20-year average p/e for the S&P 500 is 23.0.

In my opinion, the US stock market continues to factor in way too much bad news at current levels. One of the characteristics of the current US “negativity bubble” is that most potential positives are undermined, downplayed or completely ignored, while almost every potential negative is exaggerated, trumpeted, obsessed over and promptly priced in to stock prices. “Irrational pessimism” by investors has resulted in a dramatic decrease in the supply of stock. Booming merger and acquisition activity is also greatly constricting supply. Many commodity funds, which have received a historic flood of capital inflows over the last few years are now seeing redemptions as the CRB Index continues to languish near bear market territory. Some of this capital will likely find its way back to US stocks. As well, money market funds are brimming with record amounts of cash. There is massive bull firepower available on the sidelines for US equities at a time when the supply of stock has contracted.

A recent Citigroup report said that the total value of U.S. shares dropped last year, despite rising stock prices, by the most in 22 years. Last year, supply contracted, but demand for U.S. equities was muted. While overall US public sentiment is still depressed given the macro backdrop, I am seeing some signs that irrational pessimism is lifting a bit. US stock mutual funds have seen cash inflows for five out of the last eight weeks. This should make the many bears very nervous as keeping the public excessively pessimistic on U.S. stocks has been one of their main weapons. I still suspect accelerating demand for U.S. stocks, combined with shrinking supply, will make for a lethally bullish combination this year.

Considering the overwhelming majority of investment funds failed to meet the S&P 500's 15.8% return last year, I suspect most portfolio managers have a very low threshold of pain this year for falling substantially behind their benchmark once again. The fact that last year the US economy withstood one of the sharpest downturns in the housing market in history and economic growth never dipped below 2% and averaged 3.1% illustrates the underlying strength of the economy as a whole. While significant inventory de-stocking has led to a mid-cycle slowdown, I expect inventory rebuilding to begin adding to economic growth next quarter.

I continue to believe the historically extreme readings in many gauges of investor angst over the last two weeks showed the US market was cleansing itself of “weak hands” at an extraordinarily rapid rate. I suspect the worst of the current healthy pullback is already behind us. Buyout/merger speculation, a stronger US dollar, lower commodity prices, election cycle strength, decelerating inflation readings, a pick-up in consumer spending, lower long-term rates, increased consumer/investor confidence, short-covering, investment manager performance anxiety, rising demand for US stocks and the realization that economic growth is poised to rise around average rates should provide the catalysts for another substantial push higher in the major averages this year as p/e multiples expand significantly. I still expect the S&P 500 to return a total of about 17% for the year. "Growth" stocks will likely lead the broad market higher, with the Russell 1000 Growth iShares(IWF) rising a total of 25%. Finally, the ECRI Weekly Leading Index fell slightly this week, but is still forecasting healthy US economic activity. The 10-week moving average of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index is at cycle highs.

*5-day % Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,436.11 +3.54%
DJIA 12,481.01 +3.06%
NASDAQ 2,456.18 +3.52%
Russell 2000 809.51 +3.95%
Wilshire 5000 14,500.73 +3.59%
Russell 1000 Growth 565.49 +3.09%
Russell 1000 Value 830.13 +3.99%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 707.89 +3.27%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 965.20 +3.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 560.75 +1.44%
Transports 4,973.27 +4.0%
Utilities 499.56 +4.39%
MSCI Emerging Markets 116.62 +5.14%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 70,307 +6.8%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +338 +1,226.7%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 55.0 +12.6%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 170,982 -.82%
Total Put/Call .90 -26.23%
NYSE Arms .90 -34.35%
Volatility(VIX) 12.95 -22.87%
ISE Sentiment 113.0 +16.7%
AAII % Bulls 43.88 +33.01%
AAII % Bears 33.09 -27.05%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 62.21 +4.58%
Reformulated Gasoline 199.25 +4.76%
Natural Gas 7.25 +4.66%
Heating Oil 171.34 +1.04%
Gold 657.50 +.64%
Base Metals 247.70 -.01%
Copper 307.25 +1.66%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.61% +7 basis points
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 326,000 -1.2%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.16% +2 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 672.10 -2.66%
Weekly Retail Sales +3.7%
Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon +.02/gallon
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days 45.0% below normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 140.20 -.07%
US Dollar Index 83.29 +.11%
CRB Index 310.94 +2.13%

Leading Sectors
Steel +7.2%
Energy +6.5%
I-Banking +6.4%
Alternative Energy +5.94%
Construction +5.11%

Lagging Sectors
Foods +2.39%
Tobacco +2.31%
Hospitals +1.93%
Drugs +1.66%
Semis +1.45%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change