Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Lehman Brothers(LEH) may report its first quarterly loss since going public in 1994, increasing pressure on the company to raise more capital, according to analysts.
- Intercontinental Exchange Inc.(ICE) agreed to buy Creditex Group for $625 million in a deal it says will help to improve processing in the market for credit derivatives.
- Banks in Europe are lagging behind US lenders in disclosing risk, damaging investor confidence, according to Svein Andresen, secretary general of the Financial Stability Forum.

- The US dollar rose to a two-week high against the euro and increased versus the yen after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the central bank is “attentive” to the implications of the currency’s decline. ``It could be a turning point for the dollar,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist in New York at Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``It's very unusual for a sitting Fed chairman to talk about the dollar explicitly.''
- North Dakota Oil Fields of Saudi-Sized Reserves Make Farmers Oil Drillers.
- Crude oil is falling more than $3/bbl. on signs that the US will stop cutting interest rates to bolster the US dollar and worries over a potential bursting of the oil bubble intensified.
- Copper fell for a second session on speculation that consumption may cool in China, the world’s biggest user of the metal. Stockpiles of the metal monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have surged 85% this year.
- Corn fell for the first time in three sessions on speculation that a government investigation of US futures trading may result in rule changes that will halt the surge in commodity investment. ``The investigation into the commodity index-fund investments is going to reduce buying interest today,'' said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa. ``Commodities have been dominated by increased index-fund buying that might be at risk.''

- US gasoline demand fell 4.7% during the Memorial Day holiday last week, a sign that motorists are cutting consumption because of record prices, MasterCard(MA) said. Demand for the motor fuel fell 3.6% from the previous week. Consumption nationwide is down 1.8% year-to-date. Demand based on the four-week average dropped 6% from a year earlier, indicating “Americans are changing driving habits,” the credit-card company said.
- Ford Motor(F) said May sales fell 16% as gasoline near $4 a gallon steered US consumers from pickups and sport-utility vehicles.

Wall Street Journal:
- We Don’t Need a Climate Tax on the Poor. With average gas prices across the country approaching $4 a gallon, it may be hard to believe, but the US Senate is considering legislation this week that will further drive up the cost at the pump. The Senate is debating a global warming bill that will create the largest expansion of the federal government since FDR’s New Deal, complete with a brand new, unelected bureaucracy.

NY Times:
- Regulators of the nation’s commodity markets will demand more information about investors to determine whether they are evading market limits on speculation and artificially driving up world food prices. Billions of dollars have poured into the commodity futures market – from pension funds, endowments and a host of other institutional investors – through the new conduit of commodity index funds. They believe this flood of new money from swaps and index funds is undermining confidence in the market’s role in setting prices and managing risk. The commission will start requiring more information about index funds and, more significantly, about the clients on the other side of the unregulated swaps deals that are being hedged on the regulated futures exchanges. The swaps market has traditionally been seen as off limits for federal commodity regulators, but the commission clearly is responding to concern that investors may be using swaps dealers to evade rules that limit the size of their speculative role in regulated markets. The commission is also putting brakes on granting waivers that have exempted some commodity index funds from speculative limits. In recent years, more than a dozen commodity index fund companies have been granted individual waivers.
- Putin Critics Disappear From Television, Talk Shows.
- US Senator Joseph Lieberman is creating a bill to make investments in commodity markets by institutional investors taxable. The bill would amend the ERISA Act.

AP:
- AP tally: Obama clinches Democratic nomination.

PCMag.com:
- Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Jeffrey Lindsay argues in a new 310-page report that Google Inc.(GOOG) and Amazon.com(AMZN) will be long-term winners, while Yahoo(YHOO) and IAC InterActiveCorp(IACI) fall by the wayside and eBay(EBAY) becomes a merger target.

Earth2tech:
- 11 Companies Racing to Build US Cellulosic Ethanol Plants. The plants will be built all over the US and will churn out biofuels made from waste, plant byproducts and woody energy crops.

FINalternatives:
- According to a Goldman Sachs analysis of 755 hedge funds, with $833 billion of long equity positions, hedge funds now appear net short financials compared with 14% net long at year-end and 26% at the end of the third quarter. Long holdings in financials fell by $20 billion in the first quarter, and hedge fund short positions rose by an estimated $7 billion, suggesting funds were 9% net short the sector.

Financial Times:
- Billionaire investors George Soros is to tell US lawmakers on Tuesday that “a bubbe in the making” is under way in oil and other commodities and that commodity indices are not a legitimate asset class for institutional investors. “I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance which led to the stock market crash of 1987,” Soros will say. "In both cases, the institutions are piling in on one side of the market and they have sufficient weight to unbalance it. If the trend were reversed and the institutions as a group headed for the exit as they did in 1987 there would be a crash." "Nevertheless, the asset class continues to attract additional investment just because it has turned out to be more profitable than other asset classes. It is a classic case of a misconception that is liable to be self-reinforcing in both directions."

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value -.39%

Sector Underperformers:

Gamingirlind (-2.13%), Defense (-1.62%) and Banks (-1.42%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

MDCI, CHU, CHA, GR, WB, MIND, LAYN, AVAN, LULU, RECN, BEXP, GYMB and LEH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) MVL 2) RHT 3) NSM 4) NMX 5) AMT

Factory Orders Jump

- Factory Orders for April rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .1% decline and an upwardly revised 1.5% gain in March.

BOTTOM LINE: Orders to US manufacturers unexpectedly jumped in April, Bloomberg reported. Bookings excluding cars and airplanes, surged 2.6% for a second month. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge of future business spending, jumped 4% in April. Shipments of those goods, which are used to compute GDP, rose .2% after a .8% increase in March. Total shipments in April rose 2.2%, the most since December 2006. That left the amount of goods on hand at 1.23 months’ worth at the current sales pace versus 1.26 months in March. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said today that rates are “well positioned” to promote growth and stable prices, and that policy makers are “attentive” to the impact of the falling dollar. The second quarter is “likely to be relatively weak,” he said, omitting his mention in the April speech of a possible contraction. The second half may have “somewhat better economic conditions,” and growth may pick up further in 2009, Bernanke said. The US Dollar Index is jumping .52% and the 10-year yield is rising 4 basis points to 4.0% on today’s news. I expect Factory Orders to trend higher through year-end.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Mid-cap Growth (+.64%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+2.22%), Disk Drives (+1.36%) and Computer Hardware (+1.29%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

WNR, MDRX, BPHX, TXCO, MON, SQM, PKX, DELL, RACK, UBS, CCJ, UCBI, AREX, ACOR, RRGB, GPOR, VRAD, VNUS, LQDT, NVEC, GMKT, ICGE, KNDL, CWEI, OSIP, TESO, AGYS, GRMN, WHQ, NCS and CRR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) NSM 2) UTSI 3) AMT 4) DRIV 5) WSM

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
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Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
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Exchange Volume vs. Average

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Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Monday, June 02, 2008

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Brazilian stocks may decline as much as 10% by the end of August as inflation accelerates and interest rates rise, according to Citigroup Inc.(C).
- State Street Corp.(STT), facing $3.43 billion in potential losses from investments in mortgage-backed securities, said it will sell $2.5 billion of common stock to boost capital.
- SEC Chairman Christopher Cox has chosen an attorney who led one of the agency’s biggest insider-trading probes and a former partner at Gibson, Dunn Crutcher as deputy heads of the enforcement group.
- Grain growers in Australia, the world's sixth-largest wheat exporter, are in a strong position to expand output and incomes if seasonal conditions improve, the nation's commodity forecaster said.
- Malaysia’s political volatility made its stocks least favored in Southeast Asia, Goldman Sachs said, recommending that investors also pare holdings in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines as growth and earnings slow. The countries are at risk of contagion from Vietnam’s economic upheaval that slashed its benchmark index 56% this year.

Wall Street Journal:
- General Motors(GM) is set to lay out a series of restructuring actions Tuesday at its annual shareholders meeting, but cutting the dividend will probably not be on the list.
- Some superdelegates may see no advantage in taking sides just yet, and some even say they may arrive at the August convention uncommitted.

MarketWatch.com:
- Investing for the oil price collapse (Part 1). The question is not if, but when prices will come down.
- Investing for the oil price collapse (Part 2). Winners and losers from the coming fall.
- The massive consumer exit out of gas-quaffing trucks and SUVs and into crossovers and cars is gathering momentum in the US, and with monthly vehicle sales tallies due Tuesday, not even Toyota is immune to the fallout.
- Dollar bull. You can’t talk about one currency in isolation. Headlines tell us that the dollar is down. Popular dollar bashing shows that crowd’s ignorance of Europe and Japan. A strong argument can be made that the euro is not a sustainable currency. “It is only a matter of time, probably less than three years, until the euro experiment meets its end,” said Avi Tiomkin, a currency expert and adviser to hedge funds.
- The $2 trillion hedge fund industry is worried that activist investors may be about to lose a useful tool in their battles with corporate management. Positions built in a company using equity swaps, a type of derivative that’s tied to stock prices, may face tougher disclosure requirements if a ruling by a judge in NY goes the way the hedge fund industry fears later this month.

CNBC.com:
- Video Conference Use Soars Along with Travel Costs.

Portfolio.com:
- Yang was ready to spark an employee walkout if Microsoft(MSFT) won its fight for Yahoo(YHOO), a lawsuit contends. Yahoo C.E.O. Jerry Yang mapped out a scorched-earth defense against Microsoft, essentially arranging to encourage all 14,000 Yahoo employees to quit if Microsoft succeeded in buying the company earlier this year, newly released court documents suggest.

USA Today.com:
- A federal judge has sentenced law firm co-founder Melvyn Weiss to 30 months in prison for his role in a lucrative lawsuit kickback scheme targeting some of the largest corporations in the nation.
- Ford(F) CEO says shift to small cars here to stay. The first four months of the year, sales of the smallest, least-expensive cars — typically the most fuel-efficient — exploded 33% in an overall market down about 8%.

cleantech:
- Europe speeds fuel cell, hydrogen production. According to an EU-funded project, scenario analyst indicates that hydrogen, if introduced with suitable policy measures, could reduce the total oil consumption by the road transport sector by 40% between now and 2050.

Reuters:
- Nasdaq OMX Group Inc said on Monday it has begun selling real-time share data to the websites of Google Inc's Google Finance, cable television network CNBC and News Corp's Wall Street Journal. Until now, Nasdaq has been providing quotes on a 15-minute delay.


Financial Times:
- Intel(INTC) has admitted to shortages of its latest Atom microprocessor as manufacturers scramble to complete in the “netbook” category.
- The Chicago Board Options Exchange, the US’s biggest options exchange, took a big step towards an IPO on Monday by striking a $ 1 billion settlement to end a long-running legal dispute with members of the Chicago Board of Trade.

- Big US corporations lifted their charitable giving last year by 5.6 per cent - to a median $26m - despite worsening economic conditions and a slowdown in earnings.

TimesOnline:
- A call for global agreement on preventing manipulation of the crude oil market is to be made by John Hutton, the Business Secretary, at a meeting of G8 energy ministers in Japan this weekend. Mr Hutton will propose the sharing of detailed data on oil trading, as well as oil stocks, production and consumption. The plan is designed to increase transparency in the oil market and decrease opportunities for speculation by cutting oil price volatility. As well as greater action on transparency, Mr Hutton is also expected to seek coordinated international action to encourage oil-producing countries to raise output to help to bring down fuel prices. He is also seeking to encourage G8 members to maximize their investments in domestic production. The CFTC's joint investigation is understood to be concentrating on several areas of potential abuse or manipulation. They include whether the operators of oil storage facilities, pipelines, cargo ships and terminals could issue false data about the supply of available oil and make trades to profit from the misunderstanding.

Daily Telegraph:
- British Airways Plc may ground planes as the price of oil continues to rise, and will examine flights on a “route-by-route basis,” citing CEO William Walsh.

Liberty Times:
- Taiwan’s car sales will probably fall this year to a level last seen 24 years ago, when the island first opened the market to imports, citing figures from the Taiwan Transportation Vehicle Manufacturers Association. Sales plunged almost 30% from a year earlier in May because of soaring fuel costs, citing the transportation ministry.

China Daily:
- China Issues Olympic Behavior Guide for Foreigners.
- China Southern Airlines will trim services on at least 21 international routes because of surging fuel costs. China Eastern Airlines is also considering similar cuts. Air China Ltd. plans to use Airbus SAS A330s on some routes instead of Boeing 747s to reduce capacity and costs. China Southern, Air China and China Eastern are the country’s three biggest carriers.

Inquirer.net:
- Philippine gasoline prices may increase by as much as 25 US cents a liter. Domestic gas prices have risen 12 times this year.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (NUE), raised estimates, boosted target to $90.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.50% to -.75% on average.
S&P 500 futures unch.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (LAYN)/.54
- (TOL)/-.90
- (BOBE)/.41
- (GES)/.46
- (CPRT)/.48
- (HOV)/-2.77
- (HGG)/.28

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- Factory Orders for April are estimated to fall .1% versus a 1.3% gain in March.

Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for May are estimated to rise to 14.6M versus 14.4M in April.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The weekly retail sales reports, (ALTR) mid-quarter update, (CNC) analyst meeting, (THC) analyst meeting, (ATAC) investor day, (GLRE) analyst meeting, (INFA) analyst meeting, Goldman Sachs Lodging/Gaming/Restaurant/Leisure Conference, JPMorgan Basics/Industrials Conference, UBS Healthcare Supply Chain Conference, Sidoti Emerging Growth Forum, RBC Energy Conference and Oppenheimer Communications/Technology Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.