Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Financial Sector Worries and Global Growth Concerns

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Internet longs and Gaming longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 3.97% and is high at 28.55. The ISE Sentiment Index is very low at 78.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.14. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day and is currently .85. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.52% today to 88.11 basis points. This index is up from a low of 52.66 on May 5^th, but down from 129.46 basis points on March 20^th. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is unch. today at 138.48. The TED spread is rising 10.11% to 1.34. Growth stocks are outperforming value stocks by a very wide margin again today. Many growth stock leaders are flat-to-higher on the day. The market is trading as if something will soon trigger another spike in angst, which should provide the necessary washout for a more durable bottom. Nikkei futures indicate a -60 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +9 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering and bargain-hunting.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The cost of protecting companies from default fell to the lowest in more than two weeks after the U.S. Treasury sought authority from Congress to buy stakes in Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE), the nation's two biggest mortgage lenders. Credit-default swaps on the Markit iTraxx Europe index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 6.25 basis points to 97, the lowest since June 26, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. prices at 11:20 a.m. in London. Contracts on the Markit iTraxx Japan index dropped 8 basis points to close at 132, Morgan Stanley prices show.
- Corn fell to a one-month low and soybeans declined as a favorable mix of sunshine and rain may boost crop conditions in the U.S. Midwest, easing concern that June flooding will cut production.
- President George W. Bush said today he's lifting a presidential ban on drilling for oil and natural gas on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf, setting up a showdown with Congress over a separate ban it put in place in the 1980s. ``Today I've taken every step within my power to allow offshore exploration of the OCS,'' Bush said in a statement at the White House. ``This means the only thing standing between the American people and these vast oil resources is action by the U.S. Congress.''
- Freddie Mac(FRE) received higher-than- average demand for its $3 billion of short-term notes as the U.S. Treasury's rescue plan buoyed confidence the government will back the company's debt.
- Apple Inc.(AAPL) sold 1 million of its new iPhones in the first three days after the handset made its debut, more than double what some analysts anticipated, sending the stock up 3.5 percent.
- European industrial production fell the most in almost 16 years in May, as the euro's gain against the dollar, soaring energy costs and cooling global growth weighed on the region's largest economies.

Wall Street Journal:
- In a milestone for the fast-changing business of trading on Wall Street, the Nasdaq Stock Market eclipsed the NYSE on Friday in the number of shares traded for NYSE-listed stocks.
- No Reason to Panic About Fannie Mae(FNM), Says Wallison.

NY Times:
- Hedge Funds Show Obama the Money.

Daily Telegraph:
- UK advertising budgets are being cut at the fastest rate since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks as retail spending slows, citing a quarterly survey by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising. Every advertising medium except the Internet is experiencing reductions.

The Scotsman:
- Scottish companies are shedding jobs at the fastest rate in more than five years as they battle an “uneasy combination” of weaker activity and higher inflation, experts will warn today. The findings of the influential report from the Royal Bank of Scotland show output across the service and manufacturing sectors falling at the sharpest pace on record.

Irish Times:
- Construction in Ireland contracted at a record rate in June.

Korea Economic Daily:
- South Korea plans to invest $11.9 billion in alternative energy by 2012 to reduce its dependence on crude oil. The country will spend a further $15 billion on renewable energy, including solar and wind power, from 2013 to 2018.

Middle East Economic Survey:
- OPEC will tomorrow say demand for its own crude oil in 2009 will be less than its forecast for 2008. The 13-member OPEC will say in its July 15 Monthly Oil Market Report that the call on its crude next year will be 500,000 barrels a day less than the corresponding figure for 2008. Keeping OPEC’s production at the current level of 32.2 million barrels a day would increase global crude inventories at a rate of 800,000 barrels a day in 2009, according to MEES.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Value -2.79%

Sector Underperformers:

Banks irlind (-6.46%), I-Banks (-3.06%) and REITs (-2.02%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

CGV, BKD, ZION, MTB, WB, ATMI, PSYS, FCSX, ASBC, WABC, BABY, NCMI, WTNY and FITB

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) CCE 2) FLEX 3) WM 4) JOSB 5) HCBK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (+.36%)

Sector Outperformers:

Oil Tankers (+4.0%), Coal (+1.50%) and Steel (+.23%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

PHG, VQ, RRC, CCJ, HERO, NOV, AAPL, ABB, SNDA, IRE, CMO, NLY, AIB, CRME, GYMB, CSGS, CSIQ, AMED, MMSI, EURX, PNFP, MTXX, ELON, HAYN, NDAQ, WYNN, NIHD, JRCC, ENOC, FNM, RSG and MTA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) CRME 2) HOT 3) NUAN 4) WMI 5) PMCS

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson put the weight of the federal government behind Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE), the beleaguered companies that buy or finance almost half of the $12 trillion of U.S. mortgages.
- SEC to Probe Manipulation Through False Information. Wall Street's biggest regulators are examining whether securities firms adequately police rumor- mongering used to manipulate stocks after shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.(LEH), Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) tumbled last week. U.S. regulators are already hunting for traders who may have sought to illegally profit from the credit crisis by falsely stoking panics about the stability of companies including Bear Stearns Cos.(BSC), which collapsed in March amid speculation that clients were pulling business. Finra and NYSE Regulation will join the SEC in examinations in addition to those already under way into manipulation of securities prices through rumor-mongering and abusive short selling, the SEC said. Finra and NYSE rules bar their members from spreading ``sensational'' rumors that can affect markets, even if people aren't using them to defraud.
- Short selling of Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE) jumped last month before a slide in the stocks accelerated on concern that shareholders would be wiped out even if the government rescues the firms. The stocks have each tumbled at least 75 percent so far this year, reaping profits for those traders who bet on a drop. Short interest on McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac rose 22 percent to 82.8 million shares since May 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Short interest on Washington-based Fannie Mae was 138.7 million shares at the end of June, up 7.5 percent.
- Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE), the largest providers of U.S. mortgage financing, are in a ``sound situation,'' said Senator Christopher Dodd. ``They have more than adequate capital, in fact more than the law requires,'' Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said on CNN's ``Late Edition'' today. ``They have access to capital markets. They're in good shape.'' ``To suggest somehow they're in major trouble is not accurate,'' Dodd said.
- Commodity Investments Advanced 19% Last Quarter, Barclays Says. Commodity assets under management rose 19 percent to $270 billion in the second quarter, Barclays Capital said. Investment related to commodity indexes advanced 26 percent to $175 billion, the bank said in a report e-mailed late yesterday. Investments in commodity-linked medium-term notes and exchange-traded products climbed about 10 percent to $50 billion and $45 billion respectively, Barclays Capital said.
- The US dollar gained against the yen and snapped a three-day decline versus the euro after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asked Congress for the authority to buy shares of Freddie Mac(FRE) and Fannie Mae(FNM).
- Pimco’s Bill Gross Likes the US Dollar More Than Euro for 1^st Time. For three years euro bulls used the prospect of higher interest rates in Europe to justify the currency's 31 percent rally against the dollar. No more. The euro is 30 percent overvalued versus the dollar, based on purchasing power parity, according to Newport Beach, California-based Pimco. That's more than any other currency among the Group of 10 richest nations.
- Crude oil fell for the first time in four days in New York, dropping $1.68/bbl. as the dollar advanced because of plans by the U.S. Treasury to provide direct loans to the nation's largest mortgage financiers.
- Oil Brings US Closer to OPEC Dependence, Replacing Japanese. ``It's a net transfer of wealth from the United States to the oil exporting economies on a very, very significant scale,'' said Brad Setser, an economist with the Council on Foreign Relations and former acting director of the Treasury's Office of International Monetary and Financial Policy.
- AT&T Inc.(T) stores have mostly emptied out of inventory of Apple Inc.'s(AAPL) new iPhone in the U.S. two days after thousands lined up to buy the handset.
- Yahoo! Inc.(YHOO) rejected a proposal from Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) and billionaire investor Carl Icahn that would have broken up the Internet company, saying they were trying to ``coerce'' officials into selling assets.
- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said a peace agreement with the Palestinians is closer than ever.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), the world's largest software maker, will triple the storage capacity of its Xbox 360 video-game console to compete with market leaders Nintendo Co. and Sony Corp. The Xbox 360, with a suggested retail price of $349, will have 60 gigabytes of storage starting in early August at stores in the U.S. and Canada, the company said today in a statement. Microsoft will drop the price of its 20-gigabyte machines to $299 ``while supplies last,'' it said.
- InBev NV agreed to buy Anheuser- Busch Cos.(BUD) for $49.9 billion to become the world's biggest brewer, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation. The $70-a-share takeover of St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch is the second-biggest of a U.S. consumer-goods company and ends a month of court fights and public disputes over the future of the 156-year-old maker of Budweiser.
- Prices at China's factories are rising faster than those on store shelves for the first time in more than a year. Data due this week will show the margin is widening, analysts say. ``If higher costs cannot be fully passed on to final consumers due to price controls and fierce competition among downstream players, earnings growth for industrial players may continue to slow,'' China International Capital Corp. said in a report last week. ``However, CPI inflation may be driven up further if the manufacturers manage to gradually pass on upstream costs,'' the report from Beijing said.
- The risk companies in Australia will default on their bonds fell by the most in three months after U.S. Treasury sought authority from Congress to buy unlimited stakes in the nation's two largest mortgage financers. ``The announcement is a very positive development for the credit markets, given the U.S. government's support to the government sponsored enterprises,'' Deutsche Bank AG analysts led by Gus Medeiros wrote in a research note today. Credit-default swap indexes in Australia and the rest of Asia will ``see a positive reaction in the next few days'' because of the region's ``high holdings'' of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt, Medeiros wrote. The Markit iTraxx Australia Series 9 Index declined 15.5 basis points to 143.5 at 10:29 a.m. in Sydney, according to Citigroup Inc. prices. The index, which drops as perceptions of credit quality improve, fell by the most since April 2. Japan's benchmark fell 7 basis points to 133, the lowest since June 26, Morgan Stanley prices show.

MarketWatch.com:
- Airlines, truckers point fingers over speculation. On Friday, a bipartisan group of senators including Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut, said they introduced the Commodity Speculation Reform Act of 2008. The bill would increase regulation of commodities futures markets by restricting actions of financial investors. The Lieberman bill, which was co-sponsored by Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine and Maria Cantwell, D-Wa., would extend rules that apply to regulated exchanges to unrelated over-the-counter and foreign markets. It would also close the so-called 'swaps loophole' by applying speculative position limits to pension funds and other large institutional investors. Big oil consumers have been increasing their efforts to persuade Congress to tamp down investments from pension funds and other financial investors, whose exposure to commodities has increased to $260 billion from $15 billion about five years ago.

CNBC.com:
- IndyMac Bancorp has been shut down and its operations will be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the regulator that oversees the retail bank said. A successor institution, IndyMac Federal Bank, will open for business on Monday. "The immediate cause of the closing was a deposit run that began and continued after the public release of a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York [that] ... expressed concerns about IndyMac's viability," the agency said. In the 11 business days following Schumer's letter, depositors withdrew more than $1.3 billion from their accounts, the OTS said.
- More Merrill(MER) Assets May Be Up For Sale.

NY Times:
- Democratic Representative Charles Rangel, chairman of the US House committee that determines tax law, called the agreement that gives him four rent-controlled apartments in NY fair. Rangel paid $3,894 per month for the four apartments last year, compared with the current advertised rate of between $7,465 and $46,125 each month. Rangel said he would consider giving up one of them, which he sues as a campaign office, if that violates state and city laws forbidding rent-regulated apartments from being used for anything other than a residence.
- The Bush Administration May Increase the Pace of Iraq troop Pullout. The administration is considering the withdrawal of additional US combat forces from Iraq starting in September. At least one, and as many as three, of the 15 US combat brigades in Iraq could be withdrawn or scheduled for withdrawal.
- Long Protected, Fannie and Freddie Ballooned. As the Bush administration scrambles to address the sudden decline of the country’s two largest mortgage finance companies, some of their longtime critics say the crisis has been building for years.

EE Times:
- Apple(AAPL) iPhone 3G Teardown Exposes Winners and Losers.

Statesman.com:
- Semiconductor firms bask in solar’s rise. Solar’s growth potential, production similarities have chip makers seeking their place in the sun.

Washington Post:
- Pakistan’s new civilian government wants a “partnership” with the US and is looking for signs that the Bush administration is serious about increasing aid and supporting democracy there, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said.
- Treasury Department officials were working the telephones yesterday to make sure that Freddie Mac(FRE), one of the nation's two troubled mortgage giants, will be able to sell $3 billion of its securities tomorrow in a previously scheduled sale that has now become a crucial test of investor confidence.
- The number of homeowners facing an increase in their subprime adjustable-rate mortgage payments will peak this summer. Nationally, the number of subprime adjustable-rate loans resetting peaked at 7.61% of the loans outstanding last month, according to data from CoreLogic.

Seeking Alpha:
- Housing: Barron’s Calls a Bottom.

CNNMoney.com:
- Bottom Line: iPhone sales projections roll in.

Reuters:
- If the market thinks it will happen, it likely will. Say what you want about the irrationality of financial markets, but by virtue of their sheer size, what they believe does matter. If the mass market thinks something will happen, fundamentals can be bullied into fulfilling their prophecy. Remember what happened to Bear Stearns(BSC). Capital is only as adequate as the market believes it is. At Friday's intraday lows, Freddie had plunged 73 percent and Fannie had tumbled 64 percent in a week. It's natural for some to think that such a vicious sell-off has an element of capitulation, the Wall Street buzzword for the bell that rings at the bottom.
- High gold price swells ranks of illegal miners. Poor men and women in Ghana, ex-militia fighters in steamy eastern Congo and farmers in Peru are among those joining the ranks of illegal miners and risking their lives as they seek to profit from soaring gold prices. As a new gold rush spreads to the world's remotest corners, the face-off between illegal, small-scale miners and multinational firms has cost millions of dollars and claimed lives.
- U.S. authorities assured success for Freddie Mac's closely-watched debt offering after the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve announced sweeping plans to support the ailing company and its rival mortgage finance company Fannie Mae, Wall Street investors said on Sunday.
- US May machine tool off from April, up from year ago. Demand for the machine tools that shape metal for products such as car engines and refrigerators fell in May from April but was up from a year ago, two groups said in a joint report on Sunday.

Financial Times:
- FedEx(FDX) is in preliminary talks to acquire TNT, its smaller Dutch rival, in a deal that would bolster the package-delivery company’s parcel network throughout Europe.
- Oil at $140-plus has changed all aviation realities. While Emirates remains one of the more optimistic airlines, the overall view of our industry is dire. This year many airlines have grounded aircraft or gone bankrupt and an estimated 100,000 jobs will be cut. Some environmental ideologists would applaud this loss - but aviation, on which almost 33m jobs and 7.5 per cent of global gross domestic product depend, is vital for the world's economic future. This truth is too often lost in countries where environmental arguments have escaped all reason. We are in uncharted territory. This is the greatest crisis in aviation's history - bigger than the Gulf wars, the attacks of September 11 2001, severe acute respiratory syndrome and past oil shocks.
- The head of Mexico's intelligence service has warned that the country's democratic institutions, including the national Congress, are under threat from powerful drugs cartels.
- Hot money poses risks to China’s stability. Hot money is notoriously unstable and even more notoriously procyclical. When the economy is growing, or even overheating, inflows are likely to increase net investment and add even more fuel to the economic engine. But when conditions change and the economy begins to slow or the country face financial risks, hot money is likely to flee the country, exacerbating the very conditions it is fleeing.

TimesOnline:
- Henry Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, is planning a $15 billion capital injection into US mortgage companies Fannie Mae(FNM) and Freddie Mac(FRE). The plan is “high” on the list of solutions to the nation’s mortgage crisis. In exchange for the capital, the US government would get a new class of shares. Paulson’s plan also would allow the two mortgage companies to use the Federal Reserve’s discount window so they can borrow from the central bank.

The Independent:
- New windows double as solar panels. A new type of solar panel that allows light to pass through it like a pane of glass has been invented by scientists who said that it is 10 times more powerful than conventional methods of producing energy from sunlight.

BBC:
- China ‘is fueling war in Darfur’. The BBC has found the first evidence that China is currently helping Sudan's government militarily in Darfur. China's government has declined to comment on the BBC's findings, which contravene a UN arms embargo on Darfur. The embargo requires foreign nations to take measures to ensure they do not militarily assist anyone in the conflict in Darfur, in which the UN estimates that about 300,000 people have died.

Daily Telegraph:
- The UK government plans to build eight nuclear power plants in England. New planning laws will be used to fast-track approval for the reactors, which Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said are crucial for reducing the UK’s dependency on fossil fuels.

Ekho Moskvy radio:
- OAO Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled natural gas monopoly, will sign a memorandum of cooperation on energy projects with Iran today. A Gazprom delegation will visit Tehran to sign the agreement, while the exact agenda and details of the accord aren’t yet know, Ekho said.

Nikkei:
- Japan’s Ministry of Finance aims to curb the natural increase in social welfare costs by 220 billion yen and cut public works spending by 3% next fiscal year. Finance officials will start discussing spending reductions with other government offices as early as tomorrow. The ministry intends to keep cutting public spending and other social welfare costs by 220 billion yen a year with a goal of reducing the natural increase in such expenses by 1.1 trillion yen over five years.

Xinhua:
- Growth in China’s auto imports slowed down in the first five months of this year, according to General Administration of Customs. China’s auto imports in April fell 7.5% from March to 37,000 units, and in May, declined another 18% from April to 31,000 units.
- China Importing Extra Oil Products for Olympics. PetroChina Co. and Sinopec, the nation’s two biggest oil refiners, will probably import 720,000 tons of oil products in July to ensure oil supplies in the eastern part of the nation during the Olympic Games. China’s crude oil imports climbed 3.2% in June from a year earlier, down from a 25% Jump in May, according to the Customs General Administration.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (XEC), (QCOM), (NDAQ), (DEO) and (AACC).

Citigroup:
- Upgraded (GENZ) to Buy, target $91.
- Reiterated Buy on (PII), target $49, added to Top Picks Live list.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.75% to +1.0% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +.90%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.92%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (MTB)/1.55
- (DNA)/.85
- (NVLS)/-.04
- (JBHT)/.36
- (SCHW)/.36

Upcoming Splits
- (FLR) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (NVLS) analyst event and SEMICON West could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.