Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Growth (-1.28%)

Sector Outperformers:
HMOs (+1.62%), Medical Equipment (+.55%) and Hospitals (+.53%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
UNH, HUM, SONO, TSU, FNFG, PWRD, CSKI, GHDX, IBKC, GOLD, KNDL, EVY, EAT, DBD, ODC and UL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) EMR 2) LMT 3) GPS 4) ISRG 5) BAX

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Monday, April 06, 2009

Tuesday Watch



Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said the bank can intervene in the currency market if needed. “Exchange-rate markets are prone to episodes of overshooting and undershooting,” Bini Smaghi said in a speech in Brussels today. “Public intervention -- in the form of public statements or even outright interventions in FX markets - - may thus be warranted.” Euro-area policy makers have expressed concern that the pound’s 13 percent slide against the euro in the past year could push the 16-nation bloc deeper into recession by undermining exports to its biggest trading partner. The region is already grappling with the worst recession since World War II as a collapse in global demand chokes foreign sales, prompting companies to scale back output and cut jobs. “If market perceptions of the inadequacy of the euro area’s response to the crisis grow and the euro loses out to competitive devaluations elsewhere, pushing it higher, the zone’s ability to take advantage of a tentative global recovery will be impeded,” Deutsche Bank AG economist Mark Wall wrote in a report published on April 3.

- The largest U.S. foreign aid program fighting the AIDS epidemic has cut the disease’s death toll by 1.2 million from 2004 to 2007 in a dozen hard-hit African countries, researchers said. The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, started by President George W. Bush in 2003, lowered the AIDS death rate on average by 10.5 percent a year in those countries, said study author Eran Bendavid of Stanford University in a study published online today in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The program’s benefits didn’t extend to preventing new infections or lowering overall prevalence of the AIDS virus. The largest single U.S. foreign aid program for health in history, the PEPFAR program has invested most of its $18.8 billion to date in treatment for people already infected by the AIDS virus. The relief plan devoted a smaller share to prevention programs that often focused on sexual abstinence.

- The cost of protecting Asian bonds from default fell, according to traders of credit-default swap contracts. The Markit iTraxx Japan index fell 25 basis points to 318 at 9:48 am in Tokyo, BNP Paribas SA prices show. The Markit iTraxx Australia index was quoted 4 basis points lower.

- International Business Machines Corp.(IBM) and Computer Sciences Corp.(CSC) won the first major contracts in the U.K. government’s identity card program. The two awards are worth 650 million pounds ($971 million) over 10 years.

- Treasuries rose, ending three days of losses, as the Federal Reserve prepared to buy government securities tomorrow for the second time this week to hold down borrowing costs.

- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sued a Toronto hedge-fund manager, claiming he touted himself as a Chinese Warren Buffett while raising as much as $75 million for a fund the agency said became a Ponzi scheme.

- Usinas Siderurgicas de Minas Gerais SA and Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Brazil’s biggest providers of steel to the automotive industry, fell the most in a week on concern slowing demand will pull down prices for the metal. Brazilian steel prices will likely fall in the second quarter, Itau Corretora said, citing Christiano Freire, president of the country’s National Institute of Steel Distributors. Domestic prices are “too high,” compared with global prices and will likely fall 10% by May after declining 15% from the fourth quarter, Itau analysts led by Paula Kovarsky wrote. Distributors likely will pare inventories of flat steel until the second quarter, leading to a 20% decline in purchases this year, the analysts cited Freire as saying. Separately, Deutsche Bank AG analysts David Martin and Jorge Beristain cut their average steel price estimates for 2009 by 14% to $515 a metric ton. Steel demand will fall 20% in Latin America and 25% in North America this year, the analysts wrote. The analyst reduced their rating for Gerdau SA, Latin America’s largest steelmaker, to “sell” from “hold.” Analysts covering Brazil predict the economy will shrink .19% this year, compared with a forecast for zero growth a week ago, according to the median estimate.

- China’s non-ferrous metals industry is “quite expensive” and further share-price gains may be limited, according to UBS AG.

- David Dreman was fired as manager of a Deutsche Asset Management mutual fund he has run for 20 years after a bet on financial stocks contributed to a 47 percent loss in the past year. The trustees of the $2.2 billion DWS Dreman High Return Equity Fund voted to remove Dreman Value Management LLC on June 1, according to a filing last week with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The fund’s loss in the past year placed it in the bottom 3 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

- Cisco Systems Inc.(CSCO) is ready to pick up the pace of mergers and acquisitions over the next year after the valuations of technology companies slumped, said Ned Hooper, the company’s top dealmaker. “We will be active -- not hope to be -- will be,” Hooper, Cisco’s senior vice president of corporate business development, said in an interview. “We continue to use M&A as a key part of our growth strategy. The downturn for us is a big positive.”

- Earnings at companies such as Alcoa Inc.(AA) and Dow Chemical Co.(DOW) may show the first signs of recovery in the second quarter after profits at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index members fell 37 percent in the first three months of 2009. The slide may moderate in the second and third quarters, and earnings may start growing by the end of year, according to data compiled by S&P and Bloomberg. The first quarter may mark the seventh straight period of profit declines, the longest slump since the Great Depression. “This is a throwaway quarter -- everyone expects it to be bad,” said Richard Vanden Boogard, who helps oversee $60 billion at Victory Capital Management in Cleveland. “People will be looking forward to the commentary for guidance. It’s all about the outlook.”

- Defense Secretary Robert Gates today offered a blueprint for reorienting U.S. military purchases that calls for more to be spent on immediate battlefield needs and threats while eliminating programs designed in the Cold War-era and those exceeding budget estimates. Standard & Poor’s Aerospace & Defense Index rose 8.4, or 3.6 percent, to 244.12 after Gates’s announcements.

- Harley-Davidson Inc.(HOG), the biggest U.S. motorcycle maker, named Keith Wandell of Johnson Controls Inc.(JCI) chief executive officer and brought in a new president as part of a management restructuring. Wandell, 59, will replace retiring CEO James Ziemer May 1, the Milwaukee-based Harley said in a statement today. Wandell was formerly Chief Operating Officer and President of Johnson Controls Inc., North America’s largest auto supplier, also based in Milwaukee.

- Yemen, the ancestral homeland of al- Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, is facing a rising tide of terrorist attacks as militants strengthen their base in the poorest Arab nation, which borders Saudi Arabia.

- General Motors Corp.(GM) is speeding up preparations for a possible bankruptcy filing even as directors seek deeper savings this week to avoid that outcome, people familiar with the plans said.

- The U.S. is pushing for the United Nations Security Council to condemn North Korea for firing a missile in violation of a UN resolution, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. “We remain convinced that coming out with a strong position in the United Nations is the first and important step that we intend to take,” Clinton told reporters in Washington yesterday. “We know that working out the exact language is not easily done overnight.” The U.S. is involved in consultations with members of the Security Council, Clinton said, adding that North Korea’s April 5 missile launch “has grave implications.” The U.S. says the launch violated a UN resolution prohibiting North Korea from developing missile technology. President Barack Obama called the test a “provocation” that “underscores the need for action” from the UN. “North Korea ignored its international obligations, rejected the unequivocal calls for restraint and further isolated itself from the community of nations,” Clinton said, according to a State Department transcript. China and Russia initially resisted U.S. and Japanese calls for tougher sanctions against North Korea at an emergency Security Council meeting. They can both veto any resolution, increasing the likelihood of prolonged negotiations at the UN.

- Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Asia’s second-largest maker of earthmovers, tumbled by the most in a month in Tokyo trading on a report its operating profit may decline about 50 percent this fiscal year. The stock fell as much as 4.5 percent and traded 3.7 percent lower at 1,363 yen as of 10:20 a.m. on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.


Wall Street Journal:

- Treasury Revisits Rules for Toxic-Asset Sales. The Treasury Department, facing criticism over its bank-rescue program, said it may allow a broader group of private investors to purchase toxic securities. The Treasury said it may select more than five asset managers to coinvest with the government to purchase distressed real-estate investments. And it may allow firms with less than $10 billion under management to qualify for the program. "There are several ways smaller firms can partner with fund mangers, including as an asset manager, an equity partner or a fund-raising partner," the Treasury said Monday. "Other ways to participate include providing such services as trade execution, valuation and other important financial services." Some on Wall Street, primarily hedge funds, have criticized the Treasury's program as limiting access to a select few, such as Pacific Investment Management Co., a unit of Allianz SE, as well as BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

- A contentious public hearing Monday highlighted the Obama administration's challenge to craft an energy policy that emphasizes alternative fuels but also recognizes the dominance of traditional sources. Opponents of offshore drilling dominated the hearing, convened by the White House to gauge public opinion on whether the government should expand oil and natural-gas production in federal waters. Drilling supporters focused on the industry's improved safety record, as well as billions of dollars in potential government revenue. Many of President Barack Obama's supporters, particularly in the Northeast, strongly object to new drilling off their shores. According to an analysis of federal data by Securing America's Future Energy, a Washington-based group of business and retired military leaders that advocates increased domestic production, the offshore industry produced 10.2 billion barrels of oil between 1985 and 2007 with a spill rate of .001%. Many who attended Monday's hearing said they were more favorably inclined toward using coastal waters to host wind and wave-power projects. Mr. Salazar said the Interior Department will release final rules governing offshore renewable-energy projects "in a month or two," which would then allow lease sales and project development off the coasts. Mr. Salazar also said wind turbines off the East Coast could generate enough electricity to replace most, if not all, the coal-fired power plants in the U.S. Revis James, a spokesman for the Electric Power Research Institute, a nonprofit group based in Palo Alto, Calif., said that while such a development "might be theoretically possible, in practical terms, it's not very likely that it will be economical."

- A field of 111 teams -- ranging India's Tata Motors Ltd., Silicon Valley startup Tesla Motors Inc. and a team backed by musician Neil Young -- will compete for a $10 million prize to build a practical vehicle capable of getting the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon of gas, the contest's backers said Monday. The Progressive Automotive X-Prize contest, with its underlying premise that the legacy auto industry needs a shot of innovation to escape its current woes, coincides with the wrenching restructuring of Detroit's big automakers and heated debates about energy policy in Washington.

- Securities regulators and some financial firms are making it more difficult for investors to pile on when stocks are falling and further drive down prices. The Securities and Exchange Commission, facing years of criticism, has begun to crimp the ability of traders who bet against stocks to depress prices by selling millions of shares they don't possess, known as naked short selling. And some financial firms have cut back on lending to traders who want to bet against stocks. The result: The number of stocks in which big chunks of shares haven't properly been delivered to investors has plummeted.

- Barack Obama, in his first appearance as U.S. president in a Muslim nation, waded Monday into Turkey's thorniest issues -- the slaughter of Armenians in World War I and the rising power of political Islam in a secular state.

- President Barack Obama's plans to keep the estate tax in place are running into some resistance in Congress, where lawmakers may prefer a plan less burdensome on wealthy families. Congress is expected to act later this year to rewrite estate tax rules, to head off the full repeal of the tax which would take effect next year under legislation backed by former President George W. Bush.

- Record companies, weary of scraping by on 99-cent song downloads and dwindling CD sales, are trying to dress up and reimagine their most profitable product -- the album -- to woo music fans on Apple Inc.'s iTunes Store. On Tuesday, Sony Corp.'s Epic Records plans to release a $17 iTunes "pass" for pop band the Fray.

- General Motors Corp. (GM) will on Tuesday make another push into the realm of alternative vehicle technology through a joint venture with Segway Inc. to produce a two-wheeled upright personal transporter. The auto maker is targeting a 2012 launch for its electric-powered PUMA transporter, which would also employ wireless technology to allow users to navigate in urban areas and avoid traffic congestion.


NY Times:

- Sanford I. Weill, the man who built Citigroup, had not planned to donate the money until his death. He had already given more than $200 million to revamp the medical school at Cornell University into a more modern, competitive and research-focused institution (it has borne his name for a decade). At 76, Mr. Weill thought his third and final nine-digit gift could wait. But the university, like so many nonprofit institutions, has recently found itself in rough financial straits: its endowment — $5.39 billion last June — has lost more than a third of its value, its $2.9 billion annual budget has a deficit of 8 percent, and donations are down. So Mr. Weill, heart still beating, sent $170 million in December and January to Weill Cornell Medical College, where he serves as board chairman, he and university officials revealed on Monday.

Business Week:
- Credit default swaps got American International Group (AIG) into its current mess. Unraveling them might get U.S. taxpayers out of it. But it won't be easy or cheap. New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is probing the $165 million bonus payments and the billions AIG transferred to such banks as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Société Générale.

Pensions & Investments:

- All talk, little action about hedge funds. Hedge fund experts shrugged off the results of the Group of 20 meeting in London on April 2, saying the results were expected and manageable.


Google Blog:

- We like to make search as easy as we can, so we've just finished the worldwide rollout of local search results on a map, which will now appear even when you don't type in a location. When you search on Google, we will guess where you are and show results near you.


CNNMoney.com:

- Unemployment at a 25-year high. Housing prices continuing to fall. Corporate titans such as General Motors on the brink of bankruptcy. There's no lack of bad economic news. And yet, amid the gloom, there are a growing number of economists that see a recovery on the horizon -- perhaps even a strong rebound. They say that a number of indicators appear to have bottomed out in recent months. Job losses may have peaked in January. Home sales are starting to pick up. Stocks are enjoying a strong rally. And because the economy has experienced such a steep decline in the current downturn, some economists are hopeful the recovery ahead will be much stronger than the anemic gains that came about after the end of the previous two recessions. Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute, said the economy could be as close to four months away from a recovery.


Reuters:

- Investors seem to be getting comfortable with Apple Inc's stable of executives amid uncertainty about Steve Jobs' return to the helm of the consumer electronics titan he founded. Apple shares have surged in the 10 weeks since Jobs stepped away on a five-month medical leave. The stock is up more than 45 percent since it bottomed out at a two-year low on January 20, days after Jobs, a pancreatic cancer survivor, announced he would hand over day-to-day duties to lieutenant Tim Cook to seek treatment for an undisclosed condition. "The management team is pretty good," said Bob Turner, chief investment officer for Turner Investment Partners. "I would say don't short-change the team that's in place now."

- Australia's government will build a A$43 billion ($30.7 billion) national high-speed fibre-optic broadband network, rejecting bids in a controversial tender involving some of the country's top telecoms firms. In a surprise decision, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said on Tuesday the government would ask private companies join a new private-public firm to build the network.

- The Associated Press unveiled rate cuts on Monday to help member newspapers reeling from declining advertising revenue and said it would sue websites that use its members' articles without permission. Changes announced by the AP at its annual meeting in San Diego include $35 million in rate assessment reductions for 2010 on top of $30 million it already instituted for 2009.


Financial Times:
- The European Central Bank rejected a plan for European Union members in eastern Europe to adopt the euro currency without formally joining the euro zone.
The proposal was made by the IMF as part of a regional anti-crisis strategy, citing an interview with Ewald Nowotny, ECB governing council member.

- Art prices plunged during the first quarter of the year as cash-strapped collectors looked to unload works by postwar masters that had earlier boomed in price along with the stock market. The Mei Moses index, set for release on Tuesday, shows art prices fell 35 per cent in the first quarter, having held up during earlier months of the financial crisis. The overall index fell 4.8 per cent last year.


TimesOnline:

- Lord Mandelson called on British business to “seize the opportunity” of investing in Iraq as he led the first British trade delegation in two decades to the war-torn country. The Business Secretary was joined by representatives from 23 British companies, including Wood Group, Rolls-Royce, HSBC, BP and Shell. It is the first such trip to Iraq after business links were severed by years of sanctions and war. A sharp decline in violence over the past 18 months has allowed foreign investors to start thinking seriously about ventures in Iraq, home to one of the world's largest oil reserves. It is also a country in desperate need of reconstruction work. Chinese, Russian, Iranian, French, German and American companies are among those competing for Iraqi government contracts in sectors including energy, health, transport and finance. “Things are settling down,” Mr Cave said. “There is change in the air.”

IFSL:
- Hedge funds’ assets are likely to fall by over 20 per cent in 2009, according to International Financial Services London (IFSL), the independent organisation promoting UK financial services worldwide. Its annual Hedge Funds report indicates that in the first two months of 2009 hedge fund assets fell by 9 per cent, largely due to redemptions. The surge in withdrawals at the start of the year came as restrictions on redemptions in some hedge funds, particularly in the US, were lifted.

Edaily:

- Hynix Semiconductor Inc. is in talks with clients to increase4 contract prices of dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, by between 10% to 20% this month. Samsung Electronics Co. may also seek to raise prices, citing an industry official.


Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Upgraded (AXP) to Hold.

- Reiterated Buy on (PVH), target $24.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.18%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.


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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CHTT)/1.13

- (ISCA)/.65

- (MOS)/.22

- (BBBY)/.44

- (RT)/1.0

- (AA)/-.56

- (RECN)/.07


Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

- Consumer Credit for February is estimated at -$3.0B versus $1.8B in January.


Upcoming Splits
- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The weekly retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, (ALKS) analyst meeting, (ARUN) analyst meeting, (GT) shareholders meeting, (EMR) analyst meeting and the (DNR) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and shipping stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Financial, Technology and Commodity Shares

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In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Healthy Consolidation of Recent Gains

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Financial longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is above average. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising 5.59% and is very high at 41.93. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 124.0 and the total put/call is above average at .98. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.45 at its intraday peak, and is currently .94. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is dropping another 4.71% today to 154.33 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 1.75% to 190.40 basis points. This index is still below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising 1.16% to 97 basis points. The TED spread is now down 366 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is up 5.7% to 60.25 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling .06% to 94 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 5 basis points to 1.46%, which is down 118 basis points since July 7th. The 10-year TIPS spread bottomed at .65% in October 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and at 1.24% in October 2001 during the technology bubble-bursting meltdown. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .19%, which is down 1 basis point today. Today’s broad market action appears to me to be another healthy low volume consolidation of recent gains. The weakest groups today have had the sharpest gains over the last few weeks. As well, many market-leading stocks are just slightly lower or even higher on the day. The euro financial sector CDS is falling today to its lowest level since March 3rd and challenging its 50-day moving average, which is also a big positive. I continue to believe any near-term weakness will be relatively mild, before another surge higher in US stocks begins. Nikkei futures indicate a -2.0 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +4.0 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting, declining credit market angst and lower energy prices.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- Ford Motor Co.(F), slashing costs to stay off government aid, said it trimmed $9.9 billion of borrowings as the company completed its largest debt restructuring. The transactions, which reduce automotive debt by 38 percent, will “substantially strengthen Ford’s balance sheet,” the second-biggest U.S. automaker said today in a statement. Ford had sought to erase as much as $11.3 billion in notes and loans in a three-pronged effort.

- U.S. companies, adopting a model used by DuPont Co., are adding firms with 300 or fewer lawyers to their outside-counsel roster and saving as much as half compared with fees of Wall Street firms more than triple that size.

- Defense Secretary Robert Gates is recommending the U.S. cap purchases of Lockheed Martin Corp.’s(LMT) F-22 fighter jets at 187 and cancel the company’s VH-71 presidential helicopter and a new Air Force communication satellite.

- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of world trade, fell to the lowest in more than two months amid speculation of waning Chinese demand for iron ore to make steel. The index of commodity-shipping costs on international routes slid 20 points, or 1.3 percent, to 1,486 points, according to the Baltic Exchange today. That’s the lowest since Feb. 4. Rents for capesize vessels that typically ship iron ore had a 10th straight retreat to $17,081 a day, while rates for smaller panamax ships that compete for the cargoes and also carry grains fell 3.6 percent to $9,162 a day. “China started buying more iron ore in late 2008 and early this year as Chinese steel prices recovered,” Alain William, an analyst with Societe Generale SA in Paris, wrote in a report dated April 3. “There are now fears that too much material is being stocked up in Chinese ports.” Demand for steel from carmakers and builders has slumped with the world economy, expected to shrink 1.7 percent this year by the World Bank. Iron ore stockpiles in China, the world’s biggest steelmaker, grew 14 percent last month while domestic prices for hot rolled sheet, a benchmark product, fell 3.4 percent.

- China and Russia resisted a U.S. call for tougher sanctions against North Korea at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council today after the communist country launched a rocket, prompting international condemnation. Chinese and Russian envoys urged restraint, saying further study was needed to determine whether, as the U.S. asserts, the launch violated UN resolutions prohibiting North Korea from developing missile technology. The positions of the two nations, which can veto any sanctions resolution, signaled the likelihood of protracted negotiations on a UN response.

- Copper, this year’s best industrial- metal investment, may become the worst in the second quarter as demand slumps the most in three decades. Known as the commodity with an economics Ph.D., copper risks losing its reputation as an industrial barometer because prices rose 40 percent by April 3, the best start to a year since at least 1986, just as the global economy contracted for the first time since World War II, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices rose as China, the largest user, agreed to stockpile as much as 400,000 metric tons, based on Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates, enough to fill 18 Olympic swimming pools.

- Gold fell to the lowest price in more than two months, erasing this year’s gains, on speculation that the U.S. economy will rebound, eroding the precious metal’s appeal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, fell for the first time in two weeks as a rally in equities curbed demand for a haven. “People don’t think they need that flight-to-quality buying and that’s putting gold into the background,” said Stephen Platt, a commodity analyst at Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. “There’s some reallocation of assets moving from gold into equities.”

- Crude oil fell for a second day in New York, declining as much as 4.2%. Crude oil inventories in the U.S., the world’s largest energy-consuming nation, rose to 359.4 million barrels in the week ended March 27, a 15-year high. International Energy Agency will likely lower its global demand forecast this week, given slowing world growth, Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said April 2.

- The global financial crisis appears to have claimed a new casualty: the Persian Gulf dream of creating a common Arab market in the next few years with its own currency modeled after the European Union. Gulf central bankers met today in Muscat, Oman to discuss plans to create a unified currency, a vision whose near-term prospects are in doubt as the oil-rich states draw up their own plans to deal with the impact of crude prices that have tumbled almost 70 percent from their highs.


CNBC:

- The next round of government stimulus payments must focus on consumers, who are loath to spend now and are losing their historic American optimism, Thomas H. Lee Partners LP Co-President Scott Sperling said. “There is a feeling in this country of unfairness, which is unusual,” fed by the government “getting in the business” of picking winners and losers, Sperling said.

- U.S.securities regulators will consider four proposals to restrict short selling, a type of investing blamed for accelerating the severe downturn in financial services stocks, the chief of the Securities and Exchange Commission said on Monday.

- U.S. air carriers led by Hawaiian Airlines took some of the hassle out of flying last year. The airline industry had its best performance in four years in 2008, private researchers said Monday in their annual study of airline quality, based on government statistics.

- Investors should brace themselves for the long aftershock of oil trending towards $40 a barrel, says Daniel Yergin, Cambridge Energy Research Associates chairman. (video)


NY Times:

- Colony Capital, the real-estate-focused private equity firm, is considering a potential investment in MGM Mirage(MGM), a person briefed on the talks told DealBook on Monday.


MacDailyNews:

- "Barclays is out with an interesting call on Apple raising their tgt to $143 from $113 saying the stock remains one of our top picks given its new product pipeline & very strong free cash flow. They believe new products including a new familiy of iPhones in June & an ultraportable later this year should boost shares," Notable Calls reports.


The Detroit News:

- General Motors Corp.(GM) will unveil the 2010 GMC Terrain crossover, a smaller and more fuel-efficient model, at the 2009 New York International Auto Show on Wednesday along with the Yukon Denali hybrid. The new crossover is being introduced amid a slump in truck and crossover sales for GM, which is subsisting on $13.4 billion in federal aid and has asked for up to $16.6 billion more. The automaker's truck sales, which includes crossovers, were down 47 percent last month compared to a year earlier, worse than the 36.7 percent industry decline in SUV/crossover sales, according to Autodata Corp. The five-passenger, four-cylinder Terrain, which hits showrooms in late summer, will get a segment-leading 30 mpg on the highway and also be available with a 3.0-liter direct injection six-cylinder engine.


Detroit Free Press:

- One way or the other, Chrysler will once again have new owners after April 30. Instead of Cerberus Capital Management and Daimler AG holding 80.1% and 19.9%, respectively, of Chrysler LLC, there will be a larger cast. Under the latest scenario proposed by the U.S. government, Fiat SpA will have the largest block of Chrysler, at 20%. The remaining 80% will be allocated among a variety of secured creditors that include at least five banks and U.S. taxpayers. Cerberus and Daimler likely will hold much smaller stakes because they still hold loans that helped finance the August 2007 acquisition of the Auburn Hills-based automaker. Even the UAW could end up owning a piece of the company.


Politico:

- President Barack Obama sought Monday to make American amends with the Islamic world after eight years of tension, declaring in a speech to the Turkish parliament that he is determined to have a “partnership with the Muslim world.” “Let me say this as clearly as I can: the United States is not – and will never be — at war with Islam,” Obama said in remarks delivered in Ankara. “In fact, our partnership with the Muslim world is critical not just in rolling back the violent ideologies that people of all faiths reject but also to strengthen opportunities for all people.”

Reuters:
- As interest in the health information technology sector swells ahead of government funding to modernize the U.S. healthcare industry's record-keeping system, consolidation cannot be far behind. The U.S. stimulus package includes $20 billion to create computerized systems that can easily communicate with one another, replacing reams of disparate, paper records. Both large and small companies are likely to join forces to increase the scope of their offerings, while others are looking to enter this potentially lucrative business. Some 225 companies are exhibiting for the first time at the annual Health Information Management Systems Society meeting this week, which has drawn more than 23,000 health IT professionals.

Financial Times:
- Continental Europe is seeing steep falls in house prices that could exacerbate the region's already deep recession, even if the declines are receiving less attention than those in the US or UK markets, according a new indicator compiled by the Financial Times. House prices in the 16country eurozone in the final three months of 2008 were 4.8 per cent lower than in the same quarter a year before, the FT's eurozone house price index shows. That was almost as large as the 5.4 per cent drop in the FT's "Europe" house index, which includes non-eurozone countries and was heavily affected by the steep drop in UK house prices. The index, published for the first time today, pulls together national house price indices to give an overview of eurozone trends. House prices have so far not been high on European policymakers' list of concerns. But a European Central Bank research report on innovations in eurozone housing finance last month noted rises in household indebtedness and concluded "the impact of house price changes on the economy is bound to have increased, creating the possibility of more pronounced boom-bust periods".

- It is just as well that world leaders saw last week’s G20 summit a success in the fight to overcome the global economic crisis. A stark report from the International Monetary Fund, disclosed in Monday’s FT, shows what a tough job they face in one key region – central and eastern Europe. The analysis, which covers Turkey, as well as the former Communist states, sees gross domestic product plunging 2.5 per cent this year, against a 4.25 per cent growth forecast last autumn. The report’s forecasts are at the gloomy end of market projections, but not off the scale. The authors estimate the region (excluding Russia because of its huge foreign exchange reserves) must roll over $413bn in maturing external debt this year and finance $84bn in current account deficits, with smaller amounts due in 2010. The Fund assumes the rate of debt rollover will decline to 50 per cent for private debt and 90 per cent for sovereign this year with modest improvements in 2010. On this basis, after allowing for other variables, the IMF estimates the region’s “financing gap” – the money that cannot be found in the market – could be $123bn in 2009 and $63bn next year, or $186bn altogether. The largest gaps are in Romania ($34bn), Turkey ($40bn) and Poland ($59bn), a country which has so far escaped the worst of the crisis. The IMF can help close the $186bn gap with more than $81bn of its resources, based on individual countries’ quotas for IMF financing. Up to $105bn may be needed from other institutions, including the European Union, and from creditor governments. The region’s banks, largely the subsidiaries of west European groups, could face non-performing loans of about 20 per cent of total loans, estimate the authors, though this could be conservative. West European banks, with regional exposure of $1,600bn, could see losses of $160bn. They might need $100bn in new capital – or $300bn in “a more severe full-fledged regional crisis”.


RTHK:
- US Senator John McCain has questioned China's commitment to restraining North Korea, and called on Beijing and Moscow to back punitive sanctions following Pyongyang's rocket launch yesterday. Mr McCain, who stood unsuccessfully for the US presidency last year, was speaking during a visit to Hong Kong. He said the reaction from Beijing and Moscow to the launch -- they urged restraint in handling the North -- had been "predictable." "We all know that the major influence on North Korea is China. Everyone knows that," Mr McCain said. "The Chinese have been, I think, less than committed to restraining North Korea's activities." He said statements by China and Russia amounted to an under-reaction to the gravity of the situation, and he urged the UN Security Council to agree on a tough response. "It is time to turn its past words into meaningful action, including punitive sanctions, against the regime in Pyongyang," Mr McCain said.