- Steel production in China, the world’s largest maker of the metal, may rise 10% this year, the China Iron & Steel Association said today.Output may reach 550 million metric tons.
- IT departments are finally starting to buy Apple's smartphone, says a Deutsche Bank report."There is growing evidence that the iPhone is making inroads into the Enterprise," writes Deutsche Bank research analyst Chris Whitmore in a report to clients Monday. According to his estimates, Apple (AAPL) by the end of the year will have shipped about 2 million iPhones into corporate accounts through various routes, including internal IT department purchases and formal reimbursement policies. That would give Apple about a 7% share of the enterprise smartphone market this year, up from 2% in 2008. IT departments were famously resistant to the iPhone when it was launched two years ago. That resistance has begun to melt, writes Whitmore, for several reasons:
- Hedge fund launches are growing in size and number after months of subdued activity in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year. The revival of fund start-ups is one of the clearest signs yet that the $1,400bn (£854bn) global hedge fund industry is starting to return to better times. "Where it was common to start with $300m at the height of the boom, $50m was the case earlier this year," said Patric de Gentile Williams, chief operating officer of FRM Capital Advisors, a provider of seed capital to hedge fund ventures. Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research estimates that the number of fund launches rose to 182 in the second quarter of 2009 from a low of 148 the previous quarter. The size of launches was also diminished. Data provider Eurohedge estimated that the entire volume of assets raised by all of Europe's launches in the first half was less than the single largest new fund in 2008, Brevan Howards' $2.5bn Multi-Strategy Fund.
- Factory Orders for September ate estimated to rise +.8% versus a -.8% decline in August.
Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for October are estimated to rise to 9.8M versus 9.2M in September.
Upcoming Splits - None of Note
Other Potential Market Movers - The weekly retail sales reports, API energy inventory data, ABC Consumer Confidence reading, Oppenheimer healthcare conference, Wedbush Morgan Clean Tech Conference, (GFI) investor day, (FFIV) analyst meeting, (FDO) analyst conference, (DD) investor meeting, (CSH) analyst day and the (PMTC) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and shipping shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Retail longs, Biotech longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is falling -.03% and is very high at 30.68. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 104.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.04. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running above average most of the day, hitting 2.07 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.11. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.11% today to 68.83 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.98% to 105.90 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is unch. at 24 basis points. The TED spread is now down 440 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +1.46% to 34.69 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is unch. at 13 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up +2 basis points to 2.04%, which is down 61 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is unch. today.Cyclicals are outperforming today, rising +1.0%.However, given today’s positive economic data and last week’s swoon, today’s muted advance on poor breadth is a bit disappointing.A number of sectors are lower on the day, as well.Small-caps are underperforming again.CDS indices are not confirming today’s equity move higher.In my opinion, the recent stock pullback is mostly due to technical factors.While more mixed-to-negative action is likely in the near-term, I do not believe this is the end of the recent advance and I expect stocks to finish the year on a positive note.Nikkei futures indicate an +8 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -48 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain-hunting and less economic pessimism.