Monday, February 14, 2011

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value (-.08%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.04% 2) Gaming -.77% 3) Retail -.69%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • ENOC, UFPT, CTRP and LTM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) PPL 2) CTRP 3) EWT 4) EWJ 5) SWN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ZIGO 2) UEC 3) GE 4) TUP 5) DAVE
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+.41%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Coal +2.89% 2) Oil Service +2.04% 3) Steel +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CLF, FTO, CCJ, WTI, CAM, TTM, TM, SU, BONT, CCOI, EOC, KVHI, REGN, ARTC, AAWW, MERC, AVEO, NTES, HEES, FEIC, MTSC, IPGP, CEPH, BONT, BWLD, MXIM, NFLX, EXEL, BSQR, MU, MIDD, DBD, NVO and HYC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CBG 2) PLCM 3) RVBD 4) ITT 5) STEC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) EFII 2) LMT 3) MTW 4) MXIM 5) ADBE
Charts:

Monday Watch


Weekend Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Egypt Army Suspends Constitution, Meets Protester Demand. Egypt’s ruling army council said it aims to hand power to a democratically elected government within six months, after almost three weeks of popular unrest ended 30 years of autocratic rule by President Hosni Mubarak. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces yesterday dissolved parliament, suspended the constitution and said it would rule until general elections take place. The council also formed a committee to introduce constitutional changes, according to a statement read on state television yesterday. Protesters want the amendments to make it easier to run for president, set term limits on the presidency and cancel the constitutional authority for anti-terrorism measures such as arbitrary arrest, searches and military tribunals.
  • Hedge Funds Increase Bullish Wheat Bets to Highest Since 2007. Hedge funds increased their bullish bets on wheat to the highest in more than three years amid shrinking global supplies and mounting concern that food inflation will accelerate. In the week ended Feb. 8 on the Chicago Board of Trade, the funds and money managers increased net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 19 percent to 51,787 contracts, the highest since August 2007, government data showed on Feb. 11. On Feb. 9, wheat prices reached a 29-month peak of $8.9325 a bushel. “The sensitivity of the world’s populace to food inflation, the cost of a loaf of bread, is a concern and may actually be one of the catalysts for the groundswell of support for changing existing regimes around the world,” John Thorpe, a senior broker at Cannon Trading Co. in Beverly Hills, California, said in a telephone interview on Feb. 11. “Just from a macroeconomic view, that’s probably why hedge funds may be jumping on here.”
  • Queensland Floods Spur U.S. Coal Exports to Highest in 15 Years. The biggest floods in Queensland, Australia, in half a century are turning into a windfall for U.S. coal mining companies anticipating record profits and the highest exports in 15 years. Shipments from the U.S. are poised to rise 8.8 percent this year to about 86.5 million tons, the most since 1996, the Energy Department in Washington said Feb. 8. Demand for American coal is increasing after floods devastated an area of Australia twice the size of Texas.
  • Japan's GDP Contracts, Surpassed by China in 2010. Japan’s gross domestic product fell less than estimated in the fourth quarter in a pullback that may prove temporary as overseas demand revives production after the nation fell behind China as the world’s second-largest economy. The annualized 1.1 percent drop in GDP in the three months through December was driven by a slowing in exports and fading of government stimulus programs, Cabinet Office figures showed today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2 percent drop.
  • Pakistan's Government Will Help Court Execute Arrest Warrant for Musharraf. Pakistan’s government will assist courts seeking to implement an arrest warrant for former military leader General Pervez Musharraf, the Information and Broadcasting Minister Firdous Ashiq Awan said. Any court directions will be followed and all possible cooperation will be provided, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan cited the minister as saying yesterday in the capital, Islamabad. The government will contact Interpol, the international police organization, requesting Musharraf be detained if a court order is issued, according to a report from the Associated Press.
  • Emergency Medical(EMS) Said to Be Near $3.1 Billion Sale. Emergency Medical Services Corp. is near an agreement to be acquired by private-equity firm Clayton Dubilier & Rice LLC in a leveraged buyout valued at about $3.1 billion, three people familiar with the matter said.
  • GE(GE) Agrees to Buy John Wood's Submersible Pump Unit for About $2.8 Billion. General Electric Co. said it entered an agreement to acquire the well-support division of John Wood Group Plc for about $2.8 billion, adding submersible pumps to its oil- and gas-production product lineup.
  • Laffer Curve Pays Billions If Obama Just Asks: Kevin Hassett. The U.S. is about to have the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world because our competitors have noticed that revenue goes up as rates go down. Multinational corporations today nimbly move their profits to the friendliest environment, rewarding tax havens like never before. It looks as if President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats are going to miss out on the single biggest policy opportunity for the U.S. this year because of their ideological resistance to the idea that lower rates can increase revenue, also known as the Laffer curve.
  • China Profits From Solar-Power Strategy as Europeans Backpedal. Europe, which attracted more than $65 billion in solar plant investment in 2010, is providing lessons for China. Germany, the largest panel market, together with Spain and France carried out four unscheduled subsidy cuts in 2010, trying to slow a torrent of projects by developers and speculators.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Mideast Unrest Spreads. Protests Target Iran, Bahrain, Libya; Egypt Dissolves Parliament, Sets Elections. As Egypt's new military leadership suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament and promised fresh elections, demands for similar political reform swept across the Arab world—from Libya to Iran—following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Egypt's dramatic moves incorporate many demands issued during the mass demonstrations by doing away with the institutional framework that buttressed Mr. Mubarak's three-decade rule. But the military's new road map for governing Egypt in the short term came down by fiat, without input from the political opposition, raising questions about how deeply the military understands the democratic process and the demands of modern politics.
  • Trouble in Acapulco's Paradise. A string of gruesome drug-war murders has made tourists think twice about visiting the fabled beach town. Acapulco was once the playground for Hollywood's jet set. Nowadays, the resort has become a battleground for Mexican drug cartels. Last year, more than 400 people died as rival drug gangs fought for control of the port city of more than one million. On a recent blood-soaked weekend, more than 30 bodies were found dumped in parts of the city, many missing their heads.
  • Pro-Democracy Activists turn Attention to Gadhafi. In the wake of the resignation of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, online activists are threatening to test one of the Arab world's most repressive regimes: Col. Moammar Gadhafi's Libya. Expatriate activists and an amorphous group of bloggers and social-network users—it isn't clear how many of them are in Libya—are calling for protests across the oil-rich North African nation on Thursday.
  • Public-Worker Unions Steel for Budget Fights. Public-sector unions have begun using their clout against efforts to roll back government workers' wages and benefits, cut jobs and curtail contract bargaining rights as political leaders from both parties look for ways to cut spending.
  • GOP to Block Renewal of Build America Bonds Program. Key Republicans signaled they would block renewal of the Build America Bonds program as the Obama administration prepared to reinstate the bonds in the 2012 budget plan due Monday. Build America Bonds were originally introduced as part of the $787 stimulus program in 2009 but expired at the end of last year. They allowed states and localities to sell taxable bonds and receive a federal subsidy payment from the Internal Revenue Service equal to 35% of the interest costs on their bonds. But Sen. Orrin Hatch (R., Utah), the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, said late Friday that BABs were "simply a disguised state bailout." "These bonds rightly expired at the end of 2010 and it is my hope the Obama administration does not try to resurrect such a nonsensical provision in their upcoming budget," he said. The Obama administration will propose reintroducing BABs, according to three people outside the administration who were briefed on the matter.
  • Zynga's Talks With Investors Value Gaming Concern at Over $7 Billion. Social-gaming company Zynga Inc. is holding discussions with potential investors about raising around $250 million in new funding in a deal that could value the three-year-old start-up at between $7 billion and $9 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • For Big Board Chief, It's Hero or Goat. When Duncan Niederauer took over as chief executive of the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, NYSE Euronext(NYX), he claimed he wasn't a big deals guy. Three years later, Mr. Niederauer is closing in on what is likely to be the NYSE's largest, most controversial, and probably last, transaction.
Bloomberg Businessweek:
  • China Plans Panel to Scrutinize Foreigners' Local Acquisitions. China plans to create a ministerial panel to review takeovers of local companies by foreign investors. The panel will be led by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce and will be overseen by the State Council, according to a statement published today on the council’s website. Coming under scrutiny will be acquisitions involving military industrial companies and others relating to national defense, the statement said. It also will look at takeovers involving producers of agricultural goods, energy and natural resources, as well as companies in some parts of the infrastructure and transportation-services industries.
IBD:
NY Times:
NY Post:
  • The Queen of All Media Needs a Cash Infusion. Discovery Communications(DISCA) is pumping another $50 million into a joint venture for Oprah's new cable channel, bringing its total investment to $239 million, less than two months after OWN launched to much fanfare. Nearly three years in the making, OWN: The Oprah Network debuted on Jan. 1, taking over the slot occupied by the Discovery Health Channel. After a big debut that averaged 583,000 viewers in primetime the first week, OWN has seen its ratings fall below those of the channel it replaced.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
naked capitalism:
  • Paulson Denies Culpability in Crisis, Yet Even Bear Turned Down His Deals. This serves to illustrate that many conventional analyses even now tend to miss the dramatic deterioration in underwriting standards. The use of low and no doc loans rose rapidly from 2004 onward, and these pools were particularly favored by the subprime shorts. Moreover, we now know how some aspects of the underwriting were abused, for instance, by the use of inflated appraisals, so analyzing historical data will not provide a full measure of the fall in underwriting standards. Yet digging into the comfortable narrative of the subprime shorts as heros, or at least harmless, would reveal yet another viper’s nest of bad practices and abuses. The officialdom seems determined to push onward with its “look forward, not back” stance, which means the perps will be able to engage in similar types of looting when the opportunity next presents itself.
Forbes:
  • Tablets Get High Definition "Telepresence' Mobile Chat. Mobile video chat is one of those ideas that is attractive in theory but little-used in the real world due to poor experience, device limitations and data consumption. A new service aims to spur adoption by increasing videoconferencing quality on tablets and smartphones and opening up the range of applicable devices while keeping bandwidth usage low.
AppleInsider:
  • Apple's(AAPL) iPad "running far ahead" in Enterprise Adoption. Apple has taken a significant lead in the corporate world with the success of its iPad tablet, said one analyst, while predicting the company will sell 33.7 million iPads this year. Barclays analyst analyst Ben Reitzes said Friday that when it comes to the corporate world, the iPad is "running far ahead of its tablet competition and its their game to lose," Barrons reports. Reitzes' report stems from a conference call with a research Forrester Research analyst. According to Reitzes, Apple hasn't established an enterprise salesforce, but the iPad maker is "listening to enterprise customers." The report noted that Forrester's research indicates that corporate users are "buying devices and bringing them into work" in increasing numbers. Apple is the "winner in the consumerization of IT," said Reitzes. Reitzes sees Apple ending the calendar year with sales of 33.7 million iPads, a more than 70 percent share of the 47 million tablets he predicts will sell in 2011. He has an Overweight rating on Apple stock, with a $450 price target.
Washington Post:
MercuryNews.com:
  • Pandora: Oakland Music Site Files for IPO of Up to $100 Million. Pandora, the pioneering online music service that creates personalized "radio stations" based on songs that users like, filed documents late Friday for an initial public stock offering worth up to $100 million. The filing makes Oakland-based Pandora the second well-known Internet startup to announce plans to go public in as many weeks, after a similar filing last month by LinkedIn, an online networking and résumé service for professionals. Pandora, which launched in 2000, says it has 80 million registered users and delivered 3.9 billion hours of music to listeners in its last fiscal year.
AP:
  • Ugandan opponents to President Yoweri Museveni are threatening protests similar to those in Egypt if elections scheduled for next week are manipulated. Opposition candidate Kizza Besigye said the vote will be flawed because the electoral commission favors Museveni.
Reuters:
  • Armed Yemeni Government Supporters Break Up Protest. Pro-government demonstrators armed with knives and batons broke up a protest on Saturday by around 2,000 Yemenis inspired by the overthrow of Egypt's president.
  • DB NYSE Group May Be Name for Giant Exchange - Sources. Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext plan to call a combined company DB NYSE Group and will likely sidestep thorny issues of technology in a bid to strike a merger deal by Tuesday, two people close to the negotiations said. The Frankfurt- and the New York-based exchange operators are edging toward an outline deal to be agreed on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, one source said on Saturday. The two Europe-based sources said the sides have still not finalized a merger document that can be presented to Deutsche Boerse's board of directors, confirming earlier reports.
  • G20 Sees 2 Steps to Tackling Global Imbalances - EU. Finance ministers from the world's 20 biggest developed and developing economies (G20) are likely to agree next week on a two-stage approach to tackling global economic imbalances, a European Union document showed. Such imbalances, reflected in the current account balance, private and public savings, debt and capital flows, can trigger or augment crises, destabilising the world economy. G20 leaders agreed in November to find a way to tackle them. The first step would be to identify the imbalances using an agreed set of economic indicators and benchmark values. The second step would be to analyse the causes of the imbalances and possibly make policy recommendations on how to deal with them.
  • Abbas' Cabinet to Resign on Monday - Sources. The Palestinian cabinet will tender resignations Monday after which Prime Minister Salam Fayyad will select new ministers at the request of President Mahmoud Abbas, political sources said. The shake-up, disclosed to Reuters Sunday, was long demanded by Fayyad and some in Abbas's Fatah faction. It follows the fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to a popular revolt that has set off reform calls throughout the Arab world.
  • Weber Says European Opposition Reason He Bowed Out. Bundesbank president Axel Weber confirmed on Saturday he would not be a candidate to head the European Central Bank, blaming resistance in some European countries to his hardline monetarist stance. In an interview with Der Spiegel magazine released on Saturday, Weber said he feared the credibility of the office would have suffered if as ECB president he held a minority view on key questions, pointing to his "clear position" in the last year on important decisions.
Financial Times:
  • US Woos Sovereign Funds in AIG(AIG) Sale. The US government and AIG want to entice sovereign wealth funds to buy a large portion of the authorities’ sale of up to $20bn-worth of shares in the insurer, according to people close to the situation.
  • Time to Tax Short Selling. The European Union should adopt the draft regulation on disclosure and curbs on short sales and credit default swaps, and then tax short selling. This would reverse the dangerous usurpation of financial markets by hedge funds. Consultants Oliver Wyman noted last May that market observers were unaware short sales now account for 20-30 per cent of equity trading. Such a figure is consistent with McKinsey’s estimate in its 2007 paper, The New Power Brokers, of hedge funds accounting for 30-60 per cent of trading on London and New York exchanges.
Telegraph:
  • Egypt: Hosni Mubarak Used Last 18 Days in Power to Secure His Fortune. Hosni Mubarak used the 18 days it took for protesters to topple him to shift his vast wealth into untraceable accounts overseas, Western intelligence sources have said. The former Egyptian president is accused of amassing a fortune of more than £3 billion - although some suggest it could be as much as £40 billion - during his 30 years in power. It is claimed his wealth was tied up in foreign banks, investments, bullion and properties in London, New York, Paris and Beverly Hills. In the knowledge his downfall was imminent, Mr Mubarak is understood to have attempted to place his assets out of reach of potential investigators.
Sunday Express:
  • Barclays Plc(BCS), Britain's third-largest bank, is poised to double its annual divident to more than $912 million.
Wei Wen Po:
  • China should use "quantitative tightening" to counter the effects of the U.S.'s second round of quantitative easing, citing Li Yang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. China should "actively participate" in the building of a new global financial order, Li said.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
  • Made positive comments on (DVN).
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (HOLX), target $24.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.75% to +1.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.50 -1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 121.0 -.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (DBD)/.52
  • (AAWW)/1.33
  • (ASF)/.29
  • (MGM)/-.22
  • (A)/.57
  • (MAR)/.36
  • (MAS)/-.03
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (BLL) 2-for-1
  • (SFUN) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Dudley speaking, $32 Billion 3-Month and $30 Billion 6-Month Treasury Bills Auctions, BIO Investor Conference and the Mobile World Congress could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.


Sunday, February 13, 2011

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as mostly positive earnings reports, technical buying and short-covering offset eurozone debt angst, Mideast unrest, emerging market inflation worries and US housing concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Market Week in Review


S&P 500 1,329.15 +1.39%*

Photobucket

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*


Indices

  • S&P 500 1,329.15 +1.39%
  • DJIA 12,273.26 +1.50%
  • NASDAQ 2,809.44 +1.45%
  • Russell 2000 822.11 +2.75%
  • Wilshire 5000 13,891.40 +1.60%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 610.70 +1.47%
  • Russell 1000 Value 673.71 +1.50%
  • Morgan Stanley Consumer 760.76 +.73%
  • Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,122.09 +2.76%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 714.10 -.02%
  • Transports 5,235.51 +3.56%
  • Utilities 413.34 +.57%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 45.17 -3.37%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,055.71 +.89%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 882.14 +1.17%
  • Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 673.34 -2.53%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +117,687 +1.19%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +415 -139
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.0 -25.64%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +165,508 +8.38%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,536,606 +.30%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -5.81%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.90 -22.45%
  • ISE Sentiment 154.0 +10.79%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +17.39%
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.69 -1.51%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.83 -2.26%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 10,285.07 +1.72%
  • Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.747 Trillion +.40%
  • AAII % Bulls 49.40 -4.15%
  • AAII % Bears 26.91 +.15%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 337.78 -.34%
  • Crude Oil 85.31 -4.25%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 248.80 +1.66%
  • Natural Gas 3.90 -9.40%
  • Heating Oil 270.93 -.59%
  • Gold 1,357.20 +.57%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals 269.24 -1.0%
  • Copper 455.85 -.70%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 440.0 USD/Ton +1.77%
  • China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,868 Yuan/Ton unch.
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,752.73 +.88%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 130.20 +1.09%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +67.10 +3.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 65.6% chance of no change, 34.4% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/15
  • US Dollar Index 78.41 +.49%
  • Yield Curve 279.0 -10 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.63% -1 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.483 Trillion +1.27%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.07 -.65%
  • California Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 226.50 -6.02%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 170.33 +5.25%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 188.50 +.22%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30% -6 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.0 +3 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 81.18 -.99%
  • Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 130.52 +2.90%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 221.11 +5.0%
  • CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 192.0 +1 basis point
  • M1 Money Supply $1.895 Trillion +1.84%
  • Business Loans 615.70 -.50%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 415,500 -3.70%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.1% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 5.05% +24 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 464.70 -5.49%
  • ABC Consumer Confidence -46 -5 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.7% +40 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $3.13/gallon +.01/gallon
  • U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 18.0% below normal
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,136 +8.71%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50 +21.43%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 198,249 -11.0%
  • Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 92.25 -.76%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +2.96%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.47%
Leading Sectors
  • Networking +6.46%
  • Road & Rail +4.59%
  • Airlines +4.21%
  • Hospitals +4.16%
  • I-Banking +3.37%
Lagging Sectors
  • Oil Service -.46%
  • Steel -.65%
  • Drugs -.73%
  • Coal -1.71%
  • Gold -1.93%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers
  • HRLY, RHB, SSNC, BEC, KND, CBOE, RVI, PDE, AVID, NYX, ZOLT, JDSU, SNCR, TROXV, KNL, XIDE, HWLT, HGR, OPEN, NDAQ, GGS, BIG, SBGI, BECN, IPHS, SFN, CNA, MTSC, HAIN, IPGP, LBY, ARX, SCSS, ETM and CSL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers
  • VQ, MOTR, TCAP, RENT, CSCO, AKAM, USNA, CSC, CPX and AOL
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change