Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,279.21 -1.92%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,279.21 -1.92%
  
• DJIA 11,858.53 -1.54%
  
• NASDAQ 2,643.67 -2.65%
  
• Russell 2000 794.66 -1.02%
  
• Wilshire 5000 13,373.40 -1.78%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 581.20 -2.30%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 655.96 -1.39%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 737.42 -1.81%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,062.99 -.42%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 653.95 -3.35%
  
• Transports 5,055.95 -1.39%
  
• Utilities 400.18 -4.26%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.37 -1.05%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,026.50 -2.88%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 865.25 -2.77%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 646.87 +2.52%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +117,197 -.74%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +31 +7
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 56.0 +33.3%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +254,568 -7.63%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,580,632 +.51%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 -9.26%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.15 -36.11%
  
• ISE Sentiment 88.0 -16.19%
  
• NYSE Arms 1.07 +137.77%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 24.44 +21.71%
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.57 +11.04%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 10,055.72 +.70%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.750 Trillion n/a
  
• AAII % Bulls 28.49 -20.82%
  
• AAII % Bears 40.12 +24.13%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 351.15 -.21%
  
• Crude Oil 101.34 +.62%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 296.30 -.82%
  
• Natural Gas 4.16 +6.85%
  
• Heating Oil 303.10 +.33%
  
• Gold 1,419.10 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 262.39 +3.87%
  
• Copper 436.45 +3.22%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 413.33 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,736 Yuan/Ton +2.29%
  
• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,664.43 +.16%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 130.40 -.38%
• S&P 500 EPS Estimates 1 Year Mean 94.34 +.08%
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +63.30 -5.0 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/27
• US Dollar Index 75.57 -1.57%
  
• Yield Curve 268.0 -8 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.27% -13 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.567 Trillion +.25%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.86 -2.61%
• California Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 206.50 -2.40%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 166.33 -8.77%
• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 180.24 -2.99%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.68 -2.22%
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 90.21 -.22%
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% -2 basis points
  
• TED Spread 25.0 +1 basis point
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.67 -.09%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 102.66 -15.04%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 216.37 +1.30%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 211.0 +19 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.868 Trillion -1.63%
  
• Business Loans 620.0 +.45%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 386,300 -1.80%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.0% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.76% -12 basis points
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 510.70 -.68%
  
• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -48.5 -4.0 points
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.0% unch.
  
• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon unch.
  
• U.S. Heating Demand Next 7 Days 12.0% below normal
• Baltic Dry Index 1,531 -1.98%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.50 -5.56%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 216,828 +1.16%
  

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -.92%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.30%

Leading Sectors

• Coal +7.11%
• Paper +3.66%
  
• Alt Energy +1.80%
• Tobacco +.86%
• Homebuilders +.61%

Lagging Sectors

• Gaming -4.0%
• Restaurants -4.0%
• Utilities -4.26%
  
• Education -4.35%
• Airlines -4.72%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)

• LZ, PANL, PRMW, NDN, VRA, SUP, AIRM, RCRC, NEU, MG, WSM, EBS, LDR and WBSN
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)

• MDSO, CORE, EXC, RUE, AMSC, TRH, TIF, VOLC, AFL, ETR, CW, BWC, GES, TNDM, FRP, MED, SHAW and BWS
  

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers
• High-Volume Losers
  

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Dividend Hikes, Stable Energy Priices, Japan Optimism

Broad Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  
• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  
• Volume: Slightly Above Average
  
• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• VIX 24.34 -7.55%
  
• ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -32.33%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.16 -7.41%
  
• NYSE Arms .78 +20.33%
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.67 -3.19%
  
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.76 -6.82%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 166.33 bps -2.16%
  
• Emerging Market CDS Index 216.40 -2.73%
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 unch.
  
• TED Spread 25.0 +2 bps
  

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% -1 bp
  
• Yield Curve 268.0 +3 bps
  
• China Import Iron Ore Spot $164.70/Metric Tonne +.49%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +63.30 -.5 point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44% unch.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -11 open in Japan
• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my Biotech and Medical longs
  
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is just mildly bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session lows, despite a bounce in Japanese equities, less eurozone debt angst, stable energy prices and recent stock losses. On the positive side, Tobacco, Airline, Homebuilding, I-Banking, Bank and Paper shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. (XLF)/(IYR) have traded relatively well throughout the day. Cyclicals and small-caps are outperforming. Lumber is rising +1.54% and oil is just +.3% higher despite growing Mideast unrest. The Spain sovereign cds is falling -4.2% to 213.33 bps and the US sovereign cds is falling -3.2% to 42.29 bps. Moreover, the Saudi sovereign cds is falling -6.16% and the Israeli sovereign cds is declining -5.14% to 146.84 bps. On the negative side, Restaurant, Retail, Hospital, Networking, Semi, Oil Service, Alt Energy and Coal shares are down on the day. Growth stock leaders are relatively weak, as well. China Iron Ore Spot has declined -13.5% in about 1 month. Gold is rising +.94% and the UBS-Bloomberg Ag Spot Index is rising +2.78%. The avg. US price for a gallon of gas is -.01/gallon today to $3.54/gallon. It is up .42/gallon in 31 days. Action in the tech sector remains worrisome, notwithstanding the mild bounce over the last 2 days. The Networking subsector(Index:NWX) is especially weak as it breaks back below its 50-day moving average today. I still suspect that global growth is slowing more than economists perceive right now and that this is not factored into most stocks. Moreover, the supply disruptions, as a result of Japan, will likely become even more of a concern over the coming weeks. Even after the nuclear situation is remedied, rolling blackouts will likely crimp supplies for many months. Breadth and volume are a little better today, however triple-witching may be masking underlying weakness. I will closely monitor Monday's market reaction to the weekend's news before shifting market exposure further. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on growing Mideast unrest, tech sector worries, more shorting, profit-taking and technical selling.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Japan Nuclear Crisis Remains 'Very Grave' as Winds Shift. Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Japan’s nuclear crisis remained “very grave” as forecasts indicated changing winds could start moving radiation closer to Tokyo by the end of the weekend. Engineers are working through the night to restore power to two reactors at the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant in a bid to get cooling systems running again. By March 20, the weather may take emissions toward the capital, 135 miles (220 kilometers) south of the station, Austria’s meteorological center said, using data from the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty Organization. At current levels, the radiation isn’t dangerous beyond the immediate vicinity of the plant, the center said. Japan faces a “battle with time,” International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano said after meeting ministers in Tokyo.
• Record Beef Price Gains as Corn Cost Slows Feedlot Cattle Buying. U.S. feedlots probably bought fewer cattle to fatten for slaughter last month as surging corn costs spurred losses, signaling smaller herds this year and further gains in beef prices that already are the highest ever. Feedlot operators purchased about 1.646 million head, down 1.7 percent from February 2010 and the first year-over-year drop since July, according to a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts.
• Indian Stocks Drop Most in Asia; Reliance Slides on Report Output May Fall. Indian stocks declined, with the benchmark index dropping for a second week, as surging oil prices raised concerns about faster inflation and higher interest rates. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, lost 271.06, or 1.5 percent, to 17,878.81 at the 3:30 p.m. close in Mumbai, taking its slide this week to 1.6 percent.
• Wagyu Beef Exports, Rice Crop From Japan's Farms Threatened by Radiation. Agricultural production and exports by Japan, including premium “wagyu” beef and rice, are under threat of radioactive contamination as the nation struggles to stem pollution from the damaged Fukushima nuclear plant. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has asked each prefectural governor to start testing agricultural and marine products along with drinking water for possible contamination in order to keep tainted food including grains, milk, vegetables, meat and eggs from the market, said Kumiko Tanaka at the ministry’s policy planning and communication division.

Wall Street Journal:

• Libya Renews Attacks After Cease-Fire Offer. U.S. Says It Wants to See Actions, Not Words on the Ground, the U.K. Says It Will Deploy Typhoon and Tornado Fighter Jets; Qatar Becomes First Arab Nation to Join Mission. Libya's foreign minister Friday said the country will abide by the United Nations Security Council resolution calling for military action against Col. Moammar Gadhafi's forces and will implement an immediate cease-fire, though reports of renewed assaults against rebel-held towns suggest the fighting continues.
• Japan Faces Mistrust as Nuclear Effort Continues. Japanese authorities continued to hose down the nuclear power plant at the center of the nation's unfolding nuclear crisis Friday and said they hope to restore power to parts of it this weekend—initial steps in what's proving to be the complicated and dangerous task of keeping the plant under control.
• Honda Uncertain on Restarting Japan Plants. Honda Motor Co. said Friday that it will suspend automobile and motorcycle assembly operations in Japan through Wednesday, as some of its suppliers need more time to restore their production facilities damaged by the devastating quake a week ago. The statement followed a warning from Honda to U.S. dealers that it isn't sure if it will be able to resume full production at certain Japanese plants before May, a sign the auto industry may face greater disruption due to the earthquake and tsunami than previously feared.
• For Obama, a Double Conflict. President Barack Obama faces the prospect of striking against Libya at a time when lawmakers are preoccupied with budget deficits and, in some cases, expressing reluctance to take part in another war. Preparations for U.S. involvement have been carefully structured in keeping with Mr. Obama's method of seeking international agreement. The U.S. joined allies in taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council, which authorized military force Thursday night against Libyan Leader Moammar Gadhafi's forces.

CNBC.com:

• Economic Fears Spike as Gas, Food Prices Rise: Survey. (graph) Deep pessimism about future economic growth is weighing on Americans as they hunker down from the effects of higher gas and food prices and fear that those prices could remain elevated for years, a poll from CNBC has found.
• Some Banks Restore Dividends After Fed Approval. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and other major U.S. banks announced plans Friday to restore dividend payments and buy back shares after passing stress tests evaluated by the Federal Reserve.

Business Insider:

• Libya: Dozens are Dead in Heavy Clashes, Despite the Cease-Fire.
• Thousands of Foreigners Fleeing Japan, As Crisis is Upgraded to Level 5.
• Situation Deteriorating in Yemen, 42 Reported Dead, More Than 200 Injured.
• Goldman Sachs(GS) Buys Out Warren Buffett. Goldman Sachs is set to buy back $5 billion of preferred stock it sold to Berkshire Hathaway back in 2008 when its stock plummeted in the wake of the Lehman Brothers collapse, Bloomberg reports.
• Hillary Clinton is Sick of Obama Not Being Able to Make Up Mind - Says "Insider".
• Polls Show Strong Opposition to US Intervention in Libya.
  

AppleInsider:

• Apple(AAPL) Has Enough iPad 2 Components to Maintain Production for 2-3 Weeks. Apple along with its taiwanese manufacturing partner Foxconn have stockpiled enough components to continue to assemble new iPad 2s for at least another 2 to 3 weeks before they'd face a stockout that would halt production should the situation in Japan not improve, according to a published report.
  

Politico:

• Judge Maryann Sumi Temporarily Halts Wisconsin Union Law.

Reuters:

• China Tightening Marches On With 6th Reserve Rate Rise. China raised banks' required reserves again in a decision on Friday, the latest installment in its monetary tightening cycle that many had thought would be put on hold after Japan's devastating earthquake. Its persistance with a campaign to rein in prices that has cooled hopes for the scale of world growth showed that the People's Bank of China views inflation, not an economic slowdown resulting from Japan's disaster, as the bigger risk. The 50-basis-point increase in required reserves was the third this year and lifts the mandatory ratio for the country's biggest banks to a record 20.0 percent.
• Weekly Leading Economic Growth Gauge Falls in Latest Week: ECRI.
  

Telegraph:

• UK Consumer Confidence Crashes to Record Low. (graph).

NHK:

• Japan's Self Defense forces will skip spraying water on Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s stricken nuclear plant in Fukushima prefecture tonight.
• Firetrucks at Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s stricken nuclear plant began spraying water again toward reactor No. 3.
• It may "take some time" for Tokyo Electric Power co. to restore power to reactors No. 3 adn 4 at the stricken Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant.
  

Berar Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth (+.20%)

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -.84% 2) Restaurants -.24% 3) Networking -.12%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• PERY, GLNG, OCLR, GTLS, FNSR, JDSU, CRDN, FFIV, RVBD, RURL, AUXL, MLNX, DIOD, MIPS, CIEN, XXIA, WFMI, AMAG, APKT, WWW, WGO, HTS, RL, OAS, PPO, IVR, UA and NKE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RDN 2) MHS 3) RF 4) NKE 5) MEE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) WY 3) MHS 4) MCD 5) HPQ

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value (+.94%)

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Tobacco +2.64% 2) Airlines +2.0% 3) Gold & Silver +1.89%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PEGA, CCJ, BWS, BSFT, JRCC, LO, CDE, CNP, SSI, SFLY, SFD, EVEP, VPHM, INTU, MKSI, CCG, CAR, JRCC, ATPG, EWD, DLLR, MWV, BWS and WAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PLD 2) EXXI 3) SPG 4) NKE 5) CTIC
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IHS 2) JNS 3) HUM 4) SSI 5) GIS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume