Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -1.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.86% 2) Tobacco -.31% 3) Defense -.52%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PERI, DRC, LO, DEPO, QCOR and TDS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) EXAS 3) LO 4) DNDN 5) SYMC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BA 2) EBAY 3) FDX 4) RTN 5) PEP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Ukraine Tells Russia Invasion Means War as Putin Makes Plans. Ukraine told Russia that a military invasion would be an act of war following a vote by lawmakers in Moscow to give President Vladimir Putin the right to send troops after pro-Russian forces seized control of Crimea. Ukraine, which put its military on full combat alert, is also mobilizing the reserves, Andriy Parubiy, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said in a briefing today. He urged the U.S. and U.K. to defend the country’s territorial integrity. Putin told U.S. President Barack Obama that Russia may act if violence spreads to Russian-speaking regions, the Kremlin said in a statement. “The Ukrainian state will protect all citizens no matter in which region they live in and which language they speak or which church they attend,” acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov said. 

• Putin Grab for Crimea Shows Trail of Warning Signs West Ignored. Putin’s been cautioning the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states for at least six years not to impede Russian interests in Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, home to its largest overseas naval base.

• Property Trust Defaults Forecast as Risks Flagged: China Credit. China's property trusts, grappling with repayments equivalent to the size of Puerto Rico's economy, face rising default risks as a former central bank adviser dubs real estate the biggest threat to the economy. The trust funds must repay 634 billion yuan ($103 billion) of debt this year, up 50% from 2013, according to estimates from Haitong Securities Co., the nation's second-biggest brokerage. The yield on the 2014 notes of Myhome Real Estate Development Group Co., based in the central city of Wuhan, jumped 185 basis points in the past year to 7.78%. The real estate market is "the root of all risks" as falling prices erode local governments' ability to raise funds for spending that helps the economy, Li Daokui, former People's Bank of China adviser, said Feb. 25.

• China Separatists Stab 29 to Death at Train Station, Xinhua Says. Xinjiang separatists killed at least 29 people and wounded 130 in knife attacks at a railway station in southwestern China yesterday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing the Kunming municipal government. Police shot and killed at least four of more than 10 masked attackers who stabbed people at Kunming station yesterday afternoon, and were still hunting for the rest, Xinhua said. The injured were taken to more than 10 local hospitals in Kunming for treatment, it said. President Xi Jinping sent Meng Jianzhu, the Communist Party’s security chief, and the government’s public security minister to Kunming, and urged severe punishment of the attackers and a crackdown on violent crimes to maintain social stability, Xinhua reported. 

• Chinese Austerity Campaign Spreads Beyond Ferraris to Funerals. Zhang Hongbao, who’s run a funeral home in Shanghai for more than a decade, says he can’t recall the last time business was so dead. “Government officials don’t dare to spend too much on funerals,” Zhang, owner of Shanghai Funeral Service (China) Co., said in an interview. “It’s the peak of the anti-corruption drive. They choose simple ceremonies, such as inviting fewer people and have quieter events rather than the noisy rituals of the past.”

• China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li Growth Challenges. A Chinese manufacturing gauge fell to an eight-month low in February, adding to challenges for growth as Premier Li Keqiang prepares to map out the government’s economic strategy to the nation’s legislature. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) was at 50.2, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing. That compared with January’s 50.5 reading and the 50.1 median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. “The slowdown in manufacturing growth is due to a deceleration in investment, especially of credit-sensitive infrastructure and real-estate investment,” said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in Hong Kong.

• Xi Orders Terrorism Crackdown After Deadly China Knife Rampage. China’s President Xi Jinping ordered a crackdown on “violent terrorist activities” after 33 people died when knife-wielding assailants rampaged through a train station in a southwestern city on March 1. Local authority officials in Kunming said evidence at the scene showed it was a terrorist attack orchestrated by Xinjiang separatist forces, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported yesterday. A group promoting human rights for the region’s minority people, the Uighur, called for a transparent investigation. 

• China Growth-Target Dilemma Looms as Policy Goals Demand Slowing. China’s Communist Party leadership faces a dilemma over where to set a growth goal for 2014 as President Xi Jinping wrestles with sustaining expansion while limiting debt risks, environmental damage and social unrest. The target, set at 7.5 percent last year, will be announced at this week’s meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing. In a Bloomberg News survey, 63 percent of economists predict the same number this year, while 33 percent see either a 7 percent goal or a switch to a range, such as 7 percent to 7.5 percent.

• Shirai Suggests Widening BOJ Target Once Inflation Advances. Bank of Japan board member Sayuri Shirai suggested the central bank could broaden its 2 percent inflation target into a numerical range once price gains advance closer to the goal.

• Asia Stocks Drop as Havens Sought on Crimea; Wheat Surges. Asian stocks and U.S. equity-index futures tumbled with emerging-market currencies while the yen, gold and Treasuries gained as tensions over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine intensified. Wheat climbed the most since August as the crisis stoked supply concerns. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.3 percent by 10:50 a.m. in Tokyo and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell the most in a month as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry flies to Kiev today. The yen added 0.4 percent versus the greenback, which strengthened against emerging-market currencies from South Korea to Poland. Brent crude jumped as much as 1.9 percent and natural gas surged while gold climbed 1.2 percent, leading a rally in precious metals. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped to an almost one-month low and Asian bond risk rose. Wheat jumped as much as 4.5 percent and corn rose to a five-month high. 

• Yen Gains With Dollar as Putin Sparks Haven Asset Demand. The yen gained against all of its 16 major peers as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine intensified one of the most serious standoffs since the Cold War, boosting demand for haven assets. 

• Ruble Set to Weaken as Putin’s Ukraine Incursion Risks Sanctions. The threat of Western sanctions against Russia stands to dry up demand for the country’s assets and deepen a selloff in the ruble after President Vladimir Putin’s military forces took over parts of neighboring Ukraine. 

• Ukraine Tension Seen Stoking Gas, Crude Prices on Supply Concern. Natural gas and crude oil rose amid investor concern that escalating geopolitical tensions over Ukraine could curb energy supplies. Natural gas futures for April delivery surged as much as 2.4 percent to $4.721 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, after sliding 25 percent last week. Brent crude advanced 1.3 percent to $110.45 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. 

• Hedge Funds Most Bullish on Gold Rally in 14 Months: Commodities. Hedge funds raised bullish gold wagers to the highest in more than 14 months amid mounting concern that the U.S. economic recovery is weakening. The net-long position climbed 25 percent to 113,911 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 25, the highest since December 2012, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities advanced 16 percent to 1.45 million contracts, the most since April 2011. Coffee wagers reached a 33-month high.

• Nigeria Militant Attacks Kill at Least 90 in Northeast Region. At least 90 people died in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state after bombings and attacks carried out by suspected Islamist militants. Two explosions yesterday evening at a crowded marketplace in the Ajilari area of Maiduguri left 51 people dead, according to a body count by locals and anti-insurgent vigilante group members, Modu Kolo, a 33-year-old resident, said by phone today. In a separate attack yesterday, gunmen invaded Mainok village, killing at least 39, said Bunu Kaka, a 42-year-old farmer who fled the hostility.

• VIX Traders Bet on Rising Volatility After Year of Calm: Options. Options tied to gains in the benchmark gauge for American stock volatility reached the highest prices in six years last week, reflecting bets that the calm prevailing in equities for the last year won't last.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:

• Putin Declares War. Will Obama and Europe let him get away with carving up Ukraine?

CNBC: 

• Russian banks raise forex rates to record highs: Report. Russian banks raised dollar and euro exchange rates to record highs on Sunday amid the crisis in Ukraine, Dow Jones reported. The wire service quoted one operator at an exchange office in Moscow as saying the office was only buying foreign currency, not selling.

Zero Hedge: 

• US Official Claims 6,000 Russian Troops In Complete Control Of Crimea - Crisis Map Update.

• Putin Asks For, And Is Granted Permission By Parliament To Use Military In Ukraine.

• How Facebook(FB) Exploits Underage Girls In Its Quest For Ad Revenue.

• Putin To Use Military In Ukraine.

• Pro-Russian Protesters Storm Kharkiv City Administration Building; Russian Flags Hoisted Across East Ukraine. (video)

• Near-Bankrupt Rome Bailed Out As Italy Unemployment Rises To All Time High, Grows By Most On Record In 2013.

• Ukraine's Acting President Puts All Armed Forces On Full Combat Alert.

• The Greatest Propaganda Coup Of Our Time?

• Ukraine Capital Control Crunch: Largest Bank Limits Cash Withdrawals To $100 Daily.

• El-Erian: 6 Reasons Why Capex Is Constrained.

• BofA(BAC) Warns Russian Ruble Weakness Is Here To Stay. (graph)

• The Good, Bad, & Ugly Market Implications Of A "Crimean" War.

• Is Chinese Centrally Planned FX Policy "Just A Silly Game"?

• Chinese Manufacturing PMI Slumps To 8-Month Low, Services PMI To 3-Month High; Goldman Admits Growth Decelerating. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Russia Took Crimea — What Happens Next Is Critical.

• First They Attacked A Mall, Then They Repelled SEAL Team Six: The Rise of Al Qaeda 2.0.

• Putin's Crimea Aim Is To Make The West Look Weak. 

• Chinese Media Hurls Racist Slur At Departing US Ambassador.

• BUFFETT: Here Comes 'A Lot Of Bad News' About Public Pensions. 

• Here's The Massive 'Titan' Storm That's About To Slam The East Coast.

• HOUSE INTEL CHIEF: 'Putin Is Playing Chess, And We're Playing Marbles'.

• Japan's Ambitious Economic Revival Plan Is Running Into Big Problems.

• US Says It Could Give Kiev As Much Help As It Needs.

• Korean Manufacturing Activity Is Contracting. (graph)
  

• IAN BREMMER: We're Witnessing The Most Seismic Geopolitical Events Since 9/11. 

• Witnesses Describe Horrifying Mass Stabbing In China That Killed 29.

• Australia's Manufacturing Continues To Contract As Exports Collapse.

Investing.com:

• Up Next: Emerging Market Banking Crises. Asia Confidential thinks the vast majority of commentary has missed the underlying reasons for emerging market currency volatility, with the yuan being the latest example. What we're really witnessing is a major rebalancing of global economic trade.

Reuters:

• SEC investigates Citigroup over fraudulent Mexican loans-source. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating Citigroup for accounting fraud after it disclosed bogus loans in its Mexican Banamex unit, a source familiar with the investigation said. The securities regulator is also examining whether Citigroup violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the source said.

• Russian PM Medvedev warns Ukraine's new leaders they won't last. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Facebook on Sunday that Ukraine's leaders had seized power illegally, and predicted their rule would end with "a new revolution" and new bloodshed.

Handelsblatt:

• BOE's Carney Warns of China's Shadow Banks. Sector grew fast in last 5 years, holds risks for world economy, citing Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. Shadow banks and regulated banks intertwined via implicit guarantees, Carney said. Central banks need to take into account what their actions mean for wold economy. ECB's stress test must by "tough, credible"; stress will show at some lenders in crisis countries, Carney said.

Macrobusiness:

• China’s credit tightening is serious. The yuan fell 1.3% against the dollar last week, which is very steep in context. There are three theories about what’s going on.

Weekend Recommendations

Barron's:

• Bullish commentary on (VZ), (ATW), (YUM), (FTD), (SPG), (PLD), (NTRI), (CMG)  and (BKS).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 +3.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 101.0 -1.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.91%.

• S&P 500 futures -.72%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.71%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (NUS)/2.01

• (MDR)/.16

• (MBI)/.17

• (SSYS)/.49 

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for January is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in December.

• Personal Spending for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in December.

• The PCE Core for January is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in December.

8:58 am EST

• Final US Markit PMI for February is estimated at 56.7.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for February is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.3 in January.

• ISM Prices Paid for February is estimated to fall to 57.4 versus 60.5 in January.

• Construction Spending for January is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.1% gain in December.
  

Afternoon:

• Total Vehicle Sales for February are estiamted to rise to 15.4M versu s 15.16M in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, RBA decission, Morgan Stanley Utilities Conference, Cowen Healthcare Conference and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia/Ukraine tensions, rising energy prices, increasing emerging markets/European debt angst, technical selling, a stronger yen and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,859.45 +1.26%*




The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,859.45 +1.26%

• DJIA 16,321.70 +1.36%

• NASDAQ 4,308.11 +1.05%

• Russell 2000 1,183.03 +1.58%

• S&P 500 High Beta 31.16 +1.27%

• Wilshire 5000 19,637.50 +1.31%

• Russell 1000 Growth 880.12 +1.41%

• Russell 1000 Value 929.56 +1.12%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 433.77 +1.75%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,488.24 +1.71%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 934.46 +1.13%

• Transports 7,348.37 +.54%

• Utilities 518.77 -.90%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 111.83 +.25%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 39.76 +.71%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,177.21 +.48%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.90 +.14%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 208,698 +1.21%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 458 +93

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 12.90 -9.73%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 416,438 unch.

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,643,886 -.39%

• Total Put/Call .82 +18.84%

• OEX Put/Call .78 -38.58%

• ISE Sentiment 110.0 +4.76%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 -19.55%

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 -4.63%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.40 +5.41%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.55 -.40%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.75 -.79%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,921.83 +.31%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.684 Trillion +.75%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $4.145 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 39.7 -6.0%
• AAII % Bears 21.1 -7.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 302.43 +.28%

• Crude Oil 102.59 +.28%

• Reformulated Gasoline 294.0-2.28%

• Natural Gas 4.61 -26.12%

• Heating Oil 301.63 -2.67%

• Gold 1,321.60 -.33%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 191.13 -.56%

• Copper 318.75 -3.03%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 374.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.10 USD/Ton -3.51%

• Lumber 352.20 -2.92%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,461.01 +2.0%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.7% -80 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3428 +3.92%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 120.79 +.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.4 -5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 -1.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 30.0% chance of no change, 70.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 79.69 -.70%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.52 -.27%

• Yield Curve 233.0 -8 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.65% -8 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.117 Trillion +.28%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.03 +5.78%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 143.0 +.27%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 unch.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.02 -3.48%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 265.40 +8.64%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 91.0 -3.70%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.50 -2.96%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 364.94 +2.64%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% +4 basis points

• TED Spread 19.0 -1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 +.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 63.15 -2.07%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 86.49 -4.16%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 305.85 -3.92%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 88.50 -1.5 basis points

• M1 Money Supply $2.697 Trillion -.69%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,012.10 -1.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,300 -200

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.3% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.37% +4 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 348.50 -8.51%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -28.6 +2.0 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $3.45/gallon +.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,250 +6.38%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,1115.23 -1.65%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 -7.14%

• Rail Freight Carloads 253,358 +7.1%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.0%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +4.8%

• HMOs +4.1%

• Retail +3.9%

• Homebuilding +3.4%

• Airlines +2.5%

Lagging Sectors

• Utilities -.9% 

• Hospitals -.9%

• Biotech -1.6%

• Gold & Silver -3.2%

• Steel -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (35)

• ITMN, CANN, ZU, ESC, STRA, TQNT, KNI, AMBC, ANIK, SSTK, ACAD, JGW, FMI, ICFI WDAY, EXAM, TREX, BKS, EIGI, UEIC, CRI, HVT, BLMN, XNCR, LEAF, SMP, ROC, BKD, BBRG, NDLS, CSU, AAOI, CPF, DOOR and ACTG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)

• KMR, CTG, EXPD, BWC, AWI, CCOI, QLTY, ICUI, RGR, GTLS, BOOM, DWA, IPCM, FNGN, MDCA, CTRX, QEP, SEAC, RP, NCMI, MRC, QCOR, CLH, JONE, LMOS, DGI and UTIW

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Yen Strength, Technicnal Selling, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.88 -1.14%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.79 +.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.75 -1.13%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.52 +3.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 -34.35%

• Total Put/Call .75 -16.67%

• NYSE Arms 1.45 +88.49% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.97 +.45%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.55 -2.72%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 52.33 -1.37%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.12 -1.09%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 303.22 -.65%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 364.93 +1.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 +.75 basis point

• TED Spread 19.50 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 233.0 +1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $118.10/Metric Tonne +.08%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.40 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.50 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating +3 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -60 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long