Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,841.13 -1.97%

• DJIA 16,065.60 -2.35%

• NASDAQ 4,245.39 -2.1%

• Russell 2000 1,181.41 -1.82%

• S&P 500 High Beta 30.67 -3.0%

• Wilshire 5000 19,454.20 -1.94%

• Russell 1000 Growth 867.23 -2.06%

• Russell 1000 Value 924.58 -1.81%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 434.89 -.38%

• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,466.39 -2.96%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 913.21 -2.72%

• Transports 7,475.79 -1.53%

• Utilities 522.29 +1.57%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.72 -4.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.65 -2.84%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.64 -.30%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 963.10 -.28%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 207,945 -1.31%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 87 -970

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 19.23 -15.88%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 406,832 -4.46%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,697,240 +.56%

• Total Put/Call .77 -6.10%

• OEX Put/Call .92 -43.56%

• ISE Sentiment 80.0 -26.61%

• NYSE Arms 1.53 +66.3%

• Volatility(VIX) 17.82 +26.29%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.02 +9.01%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.58 +3.13%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.09 +4.84%

• Smart Money Flow Index 11,605.73 -2.15%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.678 Trillion -.08%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $1.945 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 41.3 +2.0%
• AAII % Bears 26.8 +.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 302.88 -1.40%

• Crude Oil 98.89 -3.69%

• Reformulated Gasoline 296.40 +.56%

• Natural Gas 4.42 -4.34%

• Heating Oil 294.31 -1.97%

• Gold 1,379.0 +2.95%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 182.09 -3.83%

• Copper 295.05 -4.34%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.93 USD/Ton -.37%

• China Iron Ore Spot 110.10 USD/Ton -3.59%

• Lumber 340.50 -5.05%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,498.39 -1.21%

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.3% +40 basis points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1865 +12.65%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.12 +.16%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.70 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -22.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 32.0% chance of no change, 68.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 3/19

• US Dollar Index 79.41 -.36%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.11 -1.59%

• Yield Curve 231.0 -11 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.65% -14 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.138 Trillion +.23%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.18 -3.47%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 -2.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 48.0 +4.34%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.83 +6.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 304.97 +7.26%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 89.69 -1.44%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 278.15 +28.51%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 379.16 +6.67%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18% -5 basis points

• TED Spread 19.0 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 66.90 +6.32%
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.21 +9.71%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 328.60 +5.89%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 96.0 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $2.815 Trillion +3.82%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,021.0 -.70%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 330,500 -6,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.37% +9 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 373.30 -2.12%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -27.6 +.9 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +2.5% -40 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $3.51/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,468 -4.86%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,075.41 -1.05%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 244,015 -5.31%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -2.4%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +5.5%

• Utilities +1.6%

• Restaurants +.5%

• REITs +.1%

• Tobacco -.4%

Lagging Sectors

• Coal -4.9% 

• Alt Energy -5.3%

• Homebuilders -5.5%

• Gaming -5.9%

• Hospitals -6.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• RGDO, RCAP, EPL, BYD, PAY, NMIH, CACQ and HRG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• OUTR, ESPR, FEYE, BNFT, AEO, CSV, EXPR and CUDA

Weekly Charts
ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Emerging Markets/European Debt Angst, Healthcare/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.42 +7.46%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.93 -.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.09 +9.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 59.17 +3.88%

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +26.03%

• Total Put/Call .71 -31.73%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 -44.64% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.35 -.40%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.84 -.66%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 50.01 +2.04%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 102.34 +.20%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 328.95 +.54%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 379.16 +1.88%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 unch.

• TED Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 230.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $110.10/Metric Tonne -1.26%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -32.70 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 -5.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.11%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) HMOs -1.28% 2) Hospitals -1.14% 3) Alt Energy -.75%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• STON, OMER, RPTP, HIBB, RM, PUK, FSYS, GSVC, CELG, SHOS, EPAM, OCRX, EGL, MEI, HMIN, RIG, HTHT, ITMN, WGO, EDU, HOLI, XIV, GIS, ADUS, GSLV and PGEM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BX 2) EFA 3) NOV 4) EWA 5) UPS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AET 2) DGX 3) CELG 4) DDD 5) X
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.22%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.26% 2) Tobacco +.98% 3) Utilities +.50%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HART, ULTA, LMCA, NUAN, CTB, JASO and NSM

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) MEET 3) OIS 4) NUAN 5) NEE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GNRC 2) PSX 3) GLD 4) GMCR 5) CCK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Friday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.50 +5.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 102.25 +2.25 basis points.

• FTSE-100 futures -.30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures  +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ANN)/.07

• (BWS)/.10

• (BKE)/1.21

• (CCL)/-.08

• (EBIX)/.32

• (HIBB)/.70

• (KWK)/-.03

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in January.

• PPI Ex Food & Energy for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in January.

9:55 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 82.0 versus 81.6 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• (ADES) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Fischer speaking, German CPI and the (H) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Rising European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.19 +11.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.92 -1.45%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.83 -.90%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.52 +4.96%

• ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -23.16%

• Total Put/Call .95 -1.04%

• NYSE Arms 2.13 +94.0% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.45 +3.32%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.84 +5.91%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 49.01 unch.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 101.02 +.81%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 327.78 +1.49%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 372.16 +1.76%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 14.13 +.89%

• TED Spread 19.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% unch.

• Yield Curve 231.0 -5.0 basis points

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $111.50/Metric Tonne +3.82%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.10 +4.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.20 -5.8 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -430 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating -85 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long