Indices
- Russell 2000 1,151.81 -3.51%
- S&P 500 High Beta 30.75 -1.63%
- Wilshire 5000 19,526.90 -.90%
- Russell 1000 Growth 826.57 -1.28%
- Russell 1000 Value 942.07 +.04%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 439.31 +.55%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,486.88 -.93%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 922.24 -1.45%
- Transports 7,451.46 -.85%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.77 +.58%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 40.58 +4.31%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,174.13 -.71%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 968.57 +.13%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 209,193 -.29%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1 -164
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 50.0 +62.50%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 391,174 +1.79%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,604,566 -1.15%
- Total Put/Call .98 +10.11%
- ISE Sentiment 109.0 -3.54%
- Volatility(VIX) 14.41 -3.93%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.76 +.77%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.61 +5.26%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.72 -2.90%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,302.70 -2.46%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.643 Trillion -.12%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.810 Billion
- AAII % Bulls 31.2 -15.3%
- AAII % Bears 28.6 +9.4%
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 293.75 +.88%
- Heating Oil 295.79 +1.16%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 184.79 +1.34%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.33 USD/Ton -.09%
- China Iron Ore Spot 112.30 USD/Ton +1.44%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,519.84 +2.37%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.9% +60 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1384 -1.42%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 121.28 +.02%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.50 +3.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.40 -2.2 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 36.0% chance of no change, 64.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 4/30
- US Dollar Index 80.18 +.08%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.53 +.24%
- Yield Curve 227.0 -5 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.72% -2 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.184 Trillion +.12%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.04 -11.56%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 141.0 unch.
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 47.34 +1.28%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 92.52 -3.48%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 259.31 -10.46%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.0 -.56%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 235.83 -13.93%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 370.28 -2.69%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14% -1 basis point
- TED Spread 19.75 +1.0 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 -1.75 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.19 +1.17%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 94.94 -3.12%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 300.25 -5.25%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 84.0 -4.5 basis points
- M1 Money Supply $2.739 Trillion -1.94%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.30 +.60%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 317,750 -20,750
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.40% +8 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 361.20 -3.47%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -31.50 -2.5 points
- Weekly Retail Sales +2.8% +20 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon +.01/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,412 -11.70%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,050.42 -1.70%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 260,713 +1.84%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)
- ECYT, LIN, KERX, FIVE, CNVR, HDS and BAX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (39)
- BFAM, PBF, UMBF, KATE, GCAP, FBHS, FDUS, NCFT, GMCR, MGI, AI, SCVL, SYMC, RAX, GIII, CACQ, INSM, TBBK, TEN, ZION, TCS, MRTX, VNCE, FRAN, PNRA, RPRX, PFSI, GEOS, HAE, NFLX, SQI, MCHX, LDOS, AIR, CSOD, DATA, VEEV, SZYM and RALY
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.79 +1.16%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.49 +.71%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.72 -.23%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.15 +.57%
- ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 +.93%
- Total Put/Call .93 +12.05%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.58 -.57%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.94 -2.80%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.34 unch.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 92.52 -.22%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 299.07 +3.23%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 370.28 +.48%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.5 basis point
- TED Spread 19.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 226.0 +4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $112.30/Metric Tonne unch.
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.5 +1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.4 +.8 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +98 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -1.71% 2) Coal -1.35% 3) Drugs +.28%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- IBB, EXLP, COMM, ECYT, CZR, PCG, SHPG, RHT, AV, PUK, CLVS, BT, LDOS, ADES, RMAX, TDG, CEO, LGF, FPRX, PANW, GILD, PCYC, MEOH, BCH, EXAS and ECYT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) NDAQ 2) CTIC 3) COP 4) AA 5) CCL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) BAC 2) CZR 3) GM 4) BX 5) CREE
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Hospitals +2.09% 2) Gold & Silver +1.74% 3) HMOs +1.56%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- TNET, WUBA, SFM, RH, QIHU and VNET
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) EPI 2) IDRA 3) APOL 4) S 5) NRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) RH 2) AA 3) RHT 4) IBM 5) MON
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crimea Resolution Backed by U.S. Barely Gets UN Majority. Ukraine
and its backers won support from little more than half the members of
the United Nations General Assembly to declare invalid Crimea’s
referendum to secede, as Russia wielded diplomatic and economic pressure
for members to abstain or cast no ballot. The
193-member General Assembly voted 100-11 today to pass a nonbinding
resolution describing the Crimean referendum as “having no validity” and
calling on all states and agencies to not recognize “any alteration of
the status” of Crimea. Fifty-eight members abstained, and 24 were
absent.
- Ukrainian Bailout to Test Cabinet's Mettle Amid Threats. An hour after Ukraine’s lawmakers
yesterday passed the laws needed to unlock a $27 billion
international lifeline, protesters chanting “Revolution!”
gathered by parliament, forcing deputies to evacuate. The demonstration, sparked by one of the nationalist Pravyi
Sektor group’s leaders being killed in a firefight with police
this week, shows the extent of the challenges Ukraine new
leaders must overcome to keep the bailout money flowing.
- China’s Developers Face Shakeout as Easy Money Ends: Mortgages. The collapse of a Chinese developer in a city south of
Shanghai foreshadows a shakeout among the nation’s almost 90,000 real
estate companies as the government reins in credit and the housing
market slows. Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co., a closely held
developer based in Fenghua, is insolvent, with 3.5 billion yuan ($562
million) of debt. Its residential projects have been halted and
authorities have detained its largest shareholder and his son, according
to the city’s government.
- Japan Inflation Unchanged in February Before Sales-Tax Rise.
Japan’s inflation rate matched forecasts in February ahead of a
sales-tax increase next week that could challenge the Bank of Japan’s
effort to stoke 2 percent price gains. Consumer prices excluding
fresh food rose 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau
said today in Tokyo, matching the median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News on the BOJ’s key inflation gauge. Household spending fell for the first time in six months and retail sales slowed, while the jobless rate dropped to 3.6%, other data released today show.
- Japan Is Taxing Itself Into Trouble. On April 1, Japan's national sales tax will rise to 8 percent from 5
percent. Unless wages rise by an equal amount, the effect will be a drop
in consumer spending. Japanese automakers anticipate a sales decline
of as much as 16 percent during the next 12 months. Even if this isn't
enough to push the economy into recession, raising the sales tax is a
bad move that will
undermine Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's agenda for the world's
third-largest economy.
- Asian Stocks Swing. Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with the regional benchmark heading for its biggest
weekly increase since September. Telecommunication shares led
declines while banks and brokerages led gains.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.1 percent to 135.93 as
of 9:32 a.m. in Tokyo after rising less than 0.1 percent.
Wall Street Journal:
- Russian Buildup Stokes Worries. Pentagon Alarmed as Troops Mass Near Ukraine Border. Russian troops amassing near Ukraine are
actively concealing their positions and establishing supply lines that
could be used in a prolonged deployment, ratcheting up concerns that
Moscow is preparing for another major incursion and not conducting
exercises as it claims, U.S. officials said. Such
an incursion could take place without warning because Russia has
already deployed the array of military forces needed for such an
operation, say officials briefed on the latest U.S. intelligence. The
rapid speed of the Russian military buildup and the efforts to
camouflage the forces and equipment have stoked U.S. fears, in part
because American intelligence agencies have struggled to assess Russian
President Vladimir Putin's specific intentions.
- Crisis in Ukraine. Streaming Coverage:
- Amazon(AMZN) Plans Free Streaming Media Service. Website Said to Drop Strategy of Only Offering Video to Users of Its Prime Shipping Service.
- Climate Forecast: Muting the Alarm. Even while it exaggerates the amount of warming, the IPCC is becoming more cautious about its effects.
- Noonan: Mr. Putin's Revealing Speech. At the Kremlin, he makes the case for an increasingly aggressive Russia.
MarketWatch.com:
- Restoration Hardware(RH) swings to profit.
Restoration Hardware Holdings Inc. swung to a fiscal fourth-quarter
profit as the high-end-home-goods retailer reported continued sales
growth and said it had hired retail
veteran Doug Diemoz as its chief development officer.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
- U.S. high-frequency trading ban unlikely -Nasdaq. U.S. regulators
are unlikely to put rules in place that would harm high-frequency
trading (HFT) as doing so would make trading more difficult and
expensive for all investors, Robert Greifeld, chief executive officer of
Nasdaq OMX Group said on Thursday.
- Red Hat(RHT) forecasts disappointing full-year profit. Red Hat Inc reported
better-than-expected quarterly results, helped by strong
subscription growth for its Linux operating system, but forecast
full-year adjusted profit below average analyst estimate.
- GameStop(GME) shares fall as 2014 forecast disappoints. Video game retailer GameStop Corp
on Thursday forecast full-year earnings below market
expectations as it is yet to see an uptick in sagging video game
software sales, despite robust hardware sales driven by the
launches of Microsoft's Xbox One and Sony's PlayStation 4
consoles.
The
Obama administration will press ahead Friday with tough requirements
for new coal-fired power plants, moving to impose for the first time
strict limits on the pollution blamed for global warming.
The proposal would help reshape where Americans get electricity, away
from a coal-dependent past into a future fired by cleaner sources of
energy. It's also a key step in President Barack Obama's global warming
plans, because it would help end what he called "the limitless dumping
of carbon pollution" from power plants.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99
AP:
- UN: 400,000 Displaced This Year in Iraq Violence. The United Nations envoy to Iraq says about 400,000 people have been
displaced this year by ongoing violence in western Iraq, and the U.N.
Security Council is expressing "grave concern" about recent developments
particularly in Ramadi and Fallujah.
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Cantor Fitzgerald:
- Rated (ORCL) Buy, target $50.
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.0 -2.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 92.75 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for February is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in January.
- Personal Spending for February is estimated to rise +.3% in February versus a +.4% gain in January.
- The PCE Core for February is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in January.
9:55 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to rise to 80.5 versus a prior estimate of 79.9.
Upcoming Splits
- (MLI) 2-for-1
- (INSY) 3-for-2
- (EOG) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's George speaking, UK GDP, German CPI and (DRI) investor conference could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted
by tech and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks
to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 14.98 +.33%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.43 -.22%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.71 +.23%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.29 -1.49%
- ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 +36.84%
- Total Put/Call .85 -15.84%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.23 -1.05%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 97.70 -.17%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 47.34 +1.15%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 93.13 -.32%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 286.80 -1.81%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 368.52 -.10%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 20.25 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% -1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 222.0 -4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $112.30/Metric Tonne +.36%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.0 +.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.14 -1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -32 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs and index hedges
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
