Indices
- Russell 2000 1,173.81 +.04%
- S&P 500 High Beta 34.29 +.65%
- Wilshire 5000 21,199.45 +.41%
- Russell 1000 Growth 955.39 +.74%
- Russell 1000 Value 1,015.14 +.03%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 491.62 +.11%
- Solactive US Cyclical 139.86 +.54%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 994.60 +1.55%
- Transports 9,061.53 +1.26%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.85 -.65%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 41.21 +.20%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,173.66 -.04%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 982.47 -.22%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,670 unch.
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 3 +43
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.82 -32.38%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 276,832 +3.09%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,509,371 +.71%
- Total Put/Call .90 -5.26%
- OEX Put/Call 2.21 +28.49%
- ISE Sentiment 157.0 +40.18%
- Volatility(VIX) 13.31 -2.63%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 40.36 -3.05%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.68 +4.33%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.14 -4.46%
- Smart Money Flow Index 17,468.50 +.93%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.644 Trillion +.34%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$1.728 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 204.25 -4.17%
- Heating Oil 241.61 -3.16%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 192.18 -.73%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 339.0 USD/Ton -.68%
- China Iron Ore Spot 75.47 USD/Ton -.49%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,247.61 +1.25%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -2.8% -70 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .1276 -9.31%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.51 -.01%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.40 +.4 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.40 +6.0 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.10 +8.2 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 42.0% chance of no change, 58.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/17
- US Dollar Index 87.53 -.05%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.11 +2.06%
- Yield Curve 181.0 +1.0 basis point
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.32% +2.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.448 Trillion +.05%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.84 +1.77%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 168.0 -1.44%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 31.42 -1.5%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 63.63 -1.29%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 246.68 +4.70%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.11 -.5
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 357.56 -1.35%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 295.65 +4.97%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.93 +.16%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90% -4.0 basis points
- TED Spread 22.75 +1.5 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 unch.
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.50 +1.5 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.5 -.30%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.22 -.48%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 281.71 +4.59%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 87.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.900 Trillion +1.85%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,079.60 +.60%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 285,000 +6,000
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.8% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.01% -1 basis point
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 372.90 -.85%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 38.2 +.1 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.80% -20 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $2.91/gallon -.04/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,264 -12.04%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,040.62 -.31%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
- Rail Freight Carloads 271,113 -3.11%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)
- ECOM, CZR, SUSQ, ACHN, MGNX, SCMP, FUEL, QTWO, ENV, CVT, PTX, ICUI, FICO, RAX, RDI, MPAA, XON, ISIS, VSAT, PGEM, EBIX, PAHC, GOGO, EVDY, EV, ZTS, FOSL, XOXO and VWR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)
- ADVS, WLH, MDRX, RXN, SEAS, ALG, AGM, MRD, HGR, BRKR, DY, HCI, FSLR, UBNT, ASCMA, VSLR, ANF, RVNC, FNGN, RYN, SLXP and ICPT
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.70 -.65%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.08 +.85%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.14 +1.12%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.18 +1.50%
- ISE Sentiment Index 138.0 +35.29%
- Total Put/Call .88 -6.38%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.66 +.94%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.68 +2.19%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.41 +.42%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.53 -.45%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 283.12 +.95%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 323.84 -.18%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 -.25 basis point
- TED Spread 22.75 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
- Yield Curve 181.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $75.47/Metric Tonne -.67%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.40 +2.1 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.40 +2.7 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.10 +2.2 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -30 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- NATO Says Russian Forces Are in Ukraine as Putin Goes to G-20. (video)
NATO’s chief said Russia is sending troops and heavy weapons into
Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin heads to a Group of 20 summit in
Australia that’s overshadowed by the crisis. “We have observed in the
past days that Russia has again brought arms, equipment, artillery,
tanks and rockets over the border into Ukraine,” North Atlantic Treaty
Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in an interview
with Germany’s Bild newspaper. “President Putin has clearly broken the
truce agreement and has violated Ukraine’s
integrity.” Ukraine is threatened with a return to open warfare,
as seen before the Sept. 5 truce that’s being violated on an almost
daily basis.
- Ruble Extends Longest Weekly Losing Streak in Nine Years on Oil.
The ruble weakened, extending the longest stretch of weekly losses
since 2005, as oil trading below $80 a barrel exerts pressure on
Russia’s revenue and pushes the economy closer to recession. The currency fell 0.9 percent to 47.2235 per dollar at 7:04
p.m. in Moscow, taking the drop in the past five days to 1.2
percent. Ten-year government bond yields climbed nine basis
points to a five-year high of 10.29 percent. The dollar-denominated RTS Index slumped 1.2 percent to the lowest since
August 2009.
- Russia Braces for 'Catastrophic' Drop in Oil Prices. President
Vladimir Putin said Russia's economy, battered by sanctions and a
collapsing currency, faces a potential “catastrophic” slump in oil
prices. Such a scenario is “entirely possible, and we admit it,”
Putin told the state-run Tass news service before attending this
weekend’s Group of 20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, according to a
transcript e-mailed by the Kremlin today.
- China Slowdown Deepens as Targeted Stimulus Fails. Aggregate
financing in October was 662.7 billion yuan ($108 billion), the
People’s Bank of China’s said in Beijing yesterday, down from 1.05
trillion yuan in September and lower than the 887.5 billion yuan median
estimate in a Bloomberg
survey of analysts. Earlier this week, reports showed
deceleration in industrial output and fixed-asset investment.
The evidence underscores concern that, outside the U.S.,
the global economic outlook is deteriorating.
- China Busts Underground Banks With $23 Billion Transactions. Beijing police raided more than 10
underground banks that were together involved in $23 billion of
transactions as authorities tighten their controls on the movement of money across China’s borders. Police in the Chinese capital busted the groups on Sept. 18, with 59 people arrested, after they handled almost 140
billion of transactions over the “past few years,” the Beijing
Municipal Public Security Bureau said in a statement on its
official microblog today. It didn’t give a more detailed time
frame for the transfers.
- ECB Can’t Expand Balance Sheet and Revive ABS Market, Pimco Says. The European Central Bank’s plans to
expand its balance sheet and revive the region’s moribund asset-backed securities market are unlikely to work, according to
Pacific Investment Management Co. The ECB’s decision to buy asset-backed debt risks crowding
out existing investors, cutting liquidity in the market and
pushing yield premiums to levels where buyers are no longer
adequately compensated, Felix Blomenkamp, the head of Pimco’s
European ABS team, wrote in a note to investors. Pimco manages
$1.87 trillion of assets. “We believe that the ECB will not likely be able to
accomplish the two divergent goals of reviving the ABS market
and buying ABS in size at the same time,” wrote Blomenkamp, who
is based in Munich. “Buying ABS in any meaningful size would
debilitate the market, rather than revive it.”
- Italy’s Slump Enters Fourth Year, Complicating Renzi’s Plans. Italy’s economy shrank in the third
quarter pushing the nation into a fourth year of a slump that
has complicated Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s efforts to revive
growth and keep public finances in check. Gross domestic product
fell 0.1 percent from the previous three months, when it declined 0.2
percent, the national statistics institute Istat said in a preliminary
report in Rome today. That matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg
survey of 22 economists. Output was down by 0.4 percent from a year
earlier.
- European Stocks Little Changed as Health-Care Shares Fall.
European stocks were little changed,
paring a weekly advance, as slides in health-care and commodity-producer
shares offset gains in media companies. A gauge of health-care stocks
was the biggest drag on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as Novartis AG and
AstraZeneca Plc retreated. Outokumpu Oyj and Anglo American Plc paced
miners lower. Abengoa SA and SBM Offshore NV led oil and energy-related
companies down. Schibsted ASA (SCH) pushed a measure of media stocks
higher after announcing a deal for joint ventures in online classifieds
across four countries. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 335.63 at
the close of trading, paring its weekly gain to 0.1 percent.
- Asset Bubbles Are Top Concern for Heartland's Central Banker. As
a Federal Reserve bank examiner in the mid-1980s, Esther George
delivered bad news to a Nebraska banker: she was downgrading overdue
loans, putting his firm’s survival on the line. The owner “broke
down and said, ‘This was my life’s work and your decisions are taking my
bank away from me,’ ” George, now president of the Federal Reserve Bank
of Kansas City, said in an interview. “I was absolutely sympathetic. I
knew what it meant for the community.”
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
StockTwits:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +2.64% 2) Computer Harware +1.26% 3) Internet +1.06%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- BHI, JWN, SC, BITA, RCAP, CST, P, AMZN and MEMP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) RHT 2) GERN 3) CLVS 4) SGMS 5) AVNR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) NDAQ 2) NVDA 3) YHOO 4) RGLD 5) WSM
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- NATO Jets Intercept Russia Military Plane Over Baltics. Two Dutch F-16 fighter jets on a NATO mission intercepted a Russian
aircraft in the Baltics after it approached Estonian and Lithuanian
airspace. The F-16s intercepted an Ilyushin transport plane that
hadn’t announced a flight plan yesterday near the two countries and
escorted it out of the area, the Dutch Defense Ministry said on its
website. The plane flew in the direction of the Russian Baltic Sea
exclave of Kaliningrad, the ministry said. Increased Russian
aerial activity coincides with rising tension pitting Russia against the
U.S. and the European Union over Ukraine. The North Atlantic Treaty
Organization detected and tracked Russian military aircraft including
fighter jets, long-range bombers and tankers over the Baltic region, the
North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean for three days in late October.
- World Outlook Darkening as 89% in Poll See Europe Deflation Risk.
The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro
area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation
rising, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.
A plurality of 38 percent of those surveyed this week described the
global economy as worsening, more than double the number who said that
in the last poll in July and the most since September 2012, when Europe
was mired in a recession. Much of the concern is again focused
on the euro area: Almost two-thirds of those polled said its economy was
weakening while 89 percent saw disinflation or deflation as a greater
threat there than inflation over the next year.
- Eastern European Recovery Falters as Euro Area Woes Sap Demand. A recovery in the European Union’s
eastern nations faltered in the third quarter, derailed by the euro region’s slowdown and deadly fighting in Ukraine.
Poland’s $518 billion economy, the largest in the EU’s east, grew 2.7
percent from a year earlier, down from 3.3 percent in the previous three
months, according to the median estimate of 29 economists in a
Bloomberg survey. Hungary’s expansion slowed to 2.9 percent from 3.9
percent, a separate survey showed. The two countries, along with the
Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria report growth figures
today.
- Beef Bowl Costs Rise as Japan Imports Priciest Since Mad Cow. The
cost of U.S. beef for Japanese
meat eaters doubled in the past year to the highest in a decade,
eroding earnings as the yen weakened and global prices soared. The
wholesale price of frozen short-plate, the meat used for beef bowls in
Japanese fast-food restaurants such as Yoshinoya Holdings Co. (9861),
rose to 1,081 yen ($9.36) a kilogram last month from 555 yen a year ago,
according to Tokyo-based Agriculture & Livestock Industries Corp.
It’s the highest since 2004, after Japan banned American beef imports
because of mad-cow disease.
- Military Chief Weighs Frontline Role for U.S. Troops in Iraq.
President Barack Obama’s top military adviser said more U.S. troops may
be needed in Iraq for a “long and difficult” fight against Islamic
State, as military planners assess the shortcomings of Iraqi forces. Army General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told lawmakers today that more complex operations in
Iraq, such as efforts to retake Mosul or secure the Syrian
border, may require deploying a limited number of additional
American military advisers in action with Iraqi soldiers.
- Most Asian Stocks Advance as Japan’s Topix Extends Six-Year High.
Most Asian stocks rose for a sixth day as Japanese shares extended a
six-year high in Tokyo after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to
a record. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added less than 0.1 percent to
141.72 as of 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo, with two shares rising for each
that fell.
- Copper Set for Weekly Drop on Slowing Global Demand. Copper fell for a third day and was set for the first weekly drop in
almost a month after weaker-than-expected Chinese manufacturing stoked
speculation that slowing global growth will temper demand. The world
economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and
emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising,
according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors. China’s
industrial output in October increased 7.7 percent from a year earlier,
trailing the 8 percent median estimate in a survey, government data
showed yesterday.
The dollar rose for a fourth day against a basket of 10 currencies,
eroding the investment appeal of commodities.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- Hedge fund Lonestar shutting down. Lonestar
Capital Management, a $1 billion hedge fund based in San Francisco, is
shutting down, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.50 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 63.75 -.75 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Retail Sales Advance for October are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in September.
- Retail Sales Ex Autos for October are estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in September.
- Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for October are estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in September.
- The Import Price Index for October is estimated to fall -1.5% versus a -.5% decline in September.
9:55 am EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for November is estimated to rise to 87.5 versus 86.9 in October.
10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for September are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in August.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The
Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, 3Q US Mortgage
Delinquencies/Mortgage Foreclosures reports and the German gdp report
could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to
weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is
25% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.96 +7.22%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.90 +.59%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 +.62%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.65 +6.23%
- ISE Sentiment Index 74.0 -42.64%
- Total Put/Call .94 +17.50%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.21 +1.27%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.26 +3.58%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 31.29 +1.96%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 64.74 +.47%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 280.98 +1.08%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 324.52 +.99%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 22.25 +.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 183.0 +1.0 basis point
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $75.98/Metric Tonne -.29%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.30 -2.4 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.10 +.6 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.3 +.7 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 -2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +68 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
- Market Exposure: 25% Net Long
