Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  
  • Greece Is Bracing for Even More Economic Pain This Year. (video) The debt-saddled country is heading for another year of contractions. Greece may have bought itself a bit more time with a third bailout, but its economic troubles are set to continue this year, and possibly even get worse. We asked 20 economists where they thought Greece was headed.  Their answers below make for a depressing read. 
  • Tsipras Returns to Parliament in Struggle to Qualify for Bailout. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will return to the Greek parliament on Wednesday seeking support from the opposition to help him overcome his own party’s rebellion against the terms of a third bailout. Greek lawmakers are voting on a second package of measures the country’s creditors demanded as a condition for starting discussions on an aid program worth up to 86 billion euros ($93 billion). Tsipras was forced to reshuffle his government last week after lawmakers from his party led by former Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis opposed the first set of reforms.
  • China’s Aftershock Ripples Through Sales of Cognac to Ore. China’s market slump is making itself felt in corporate earnings around the world. French distiller Remy Cointreau SA, U.S. fast-food company Yum! Brands Inc., U.K. luxury-goods maker Burberry Group Plc and South Africa’s Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. are among the companies taking a hit from China, where a monthlong rout in stocks wiped out almost $4 trillion in market value. The International Monetary Fund sees China’s economy expanding this year at the slowest rate since 1990, and said the country is a source of potential risk to global growth. The effect is likely to be be highlighted over the next few weeks as the bulk of the world’s biggest companies report second-quarter earnings.
  • Remy Revenue Misses Estimates on Weak Chinese Cognac Orders. French distiller Remy Cointreau SA reported first-quarter sales that missed analyst estimates as Chinese wholesalers continued to hold back on cognac orders. Sales fell 9 percent on an organic basis in the three months through June, the Paris-based company said in a statement Tuesday. Analysts expected a 5.4 percent decline. The stock fell as much as 4 percent. Asia has become less profitable for French distillers since the Chinese government began discouraging extravagant spending, denting the ultra-premium spirits market.
  • European Stocks Snap Nine-Day Winning Streak Amid Mixed Earnings. European stocks declined, snapping a nine-day winning streak, amid mixed earnings reports. Novartis AG fell 2.1 percent after reporting lower sales, dragging a measure of health-related companies to the second-worst performance of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index. French distiller Remy Cointreau SA slipped 2.5 percent after posting sales that missed analyst estimates. The Stoxx 600 retreated 1 percent to 402.66 at the close of trading, after earlier rising as much as 0.3 percent.
  • Wall Street Lenders Growing Impatient With U.S. Shale Revolution. Halcon Resources Corp. almost ran into trouble with its banks in June 2013. And again in March 2014. And in February 2015. Each time, the shale driller came close to violating debt limits set by its lenders, endangering a credit line that provided as much as $1.05 billion in much-needed cash. Each time, Halcon’s banks, led by JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., loosened their restrictions, allowing Halcon to keep borrowing. That kind of patience may be coming to an end.
  • Credit Traders Restless to Make a Buck Turn to Leveraged Swaps. Credit traders smell blood in the water. More companies are running into financial trouble, and fund managers want to make magnified bets on which ones will be the next to suffer difficulty paying their bills. To do so, investors are using complicated, leveraged credit derivatives called index tranches -- the very same structures that surged in popularity in the run-up to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. “People want to take credit risk,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Brean Capital LLC in New York. “I’m definitely having more people asking questions about tranches.” The growing temptation to take credit risk with derivatives is easy to understand. It’s gotten harder to trade actual bonds.
NY Times:
Reuters:
  • United Tech(UTX) cuts outlook on aerospace, elevator pressures. United Technologies Corp (UTX.N), which agreed on Monday to sell its Sikorsky helicopter business, cut its full-year profit outlook on Tuesday as it warned of pressures in its aerospace systems and Otis elevators businesses. United Tech, whose shares fell 4.1 percent after the company also reported second-quarter results, on Monday said it would sell its Sikorsky helicopter unit to Lockheed Martin Inc (LMT.N) for $9 billion, after saying in June it planned to exit the business following a strategic review.
Financial Times:
  • Emerging market unemployment rises sharply. Brazil and Russia lead spike as data improve in developed markets. Unemployment across emerging markets has risen sharply this year, reversing a six-year slide, even as it has continued to fall in developed countries. The figures suggest the slowdown in emerging market growth, driven by a drop in commodity prices and a pullback in global trade, is finally starting to percolate through to labour markets, threatening to drag consumer spending down further.
Telegraph: 

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Gowth -.80%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -3.46% 2) Computer Hardware -2.81% 3) Defense -1.84%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • LXK, UNFI, IOC, BMI, TTS, HXL, EXAM, MDSO, UTX, EXAS, HMSY, EPC, ATI, ABG, ASTE, WWD, CP, IBM, SAP, ADPT, ELGX, NTCT, HCI, STNR, BRO, CFG, BEAV, MDAS, COL, LAD, MAN, AAC and WIBC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BTU 2) IBM 3) CAR 4) UTX 5) HOG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LXK 2) UNFI 3) TSLA 4) IBM 5) UTX
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value -.08%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +3.68% 2) Oil Service +1.54% 3) Steel +1.32%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • THOR, SXC, SANM, STLD, WERN, INFY, CNX, EFII and HAL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACHN 2) KKR 3) QEP 4) RSX 5) NFX
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ZION 2) HAL 3) SANM 4) HOG 5) ANAC
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say. Don’t pack away the currency presses just yet, Greece’s euro exit may be back on the table next year. There’s still a danger that Greece will be forced out of the euro region by the end of 2016, according to 71 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists. Seventy percent said they reckon Greece should be safe for the rest of 2015, though almost half said they thought the 86 billion-euro ($93 billion) bailout package Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is targeting will prove to be too small.
  • The Brokers Left Stranded When China’s IPO Party Suddenly Ended. China’s sudden halt to a frenzy of initial public offerings came at just the wrong time for underwriters Everbright Securities Co., Guotai Junan Securities Co. and China Merchants Securities Co. The trio are the firms with the largest number of IPOs in limbo -- approved by regulators but yet to be completed -- after the government imposed an indefinite suspension this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Each has three on hold. 
  • RBA Says Growth Likely Slowed Last Quarter, Aussie Too High. Australia’s central bank said growth probably slowed last quarter and the currency is offering less assistance than would be expected given weaker commodity prices. “Non-mining business investment had been subdued,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes released Tuesday of its July 7 meeting, when it kept interest rates unchanged at a record-low 2 percent. “Surveys of businesses’ investment intentions suggested that it would remain so over the coming year.” 
  • Asian Stocks Climb, Led by Consumer Shares, as Yen Buoys Topix. Asian stocks rose as a weaker yen buoyed Japanese equities and consumer shares advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 144.51 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Consumer companies led gains, while energy shares were the worst performers for a second day. Crude oil fell below $50 a barrel on Tuesday, as gold traded near a five-year low.
  • Iron Ore Supply to Overwhelm Weak China Demand, Goldman(GS) Predicts. Rising seaborne iron ore supplies over the next two quarters will probably overwhelm weak demand from mills in China, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said that a global glut was entering its second year. While housing starts in China have recovered and the infrastructure has overtaken property to become the largest market for steel, an improvement this half may not be strong enough to support iron ore, the bank said in a report. Prices are seen dropping over the next four quarters, from $49 a metric ton through September to $44 by the April-to-June period of 2016, according to analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai.
  • BHP(BHP) creditors becoming more wary. BHP Billiton Ltd.’s creditors are becoming more wary as plunging energy and metal prices weigh on the outlook for debt sold by the world’s biggest miner. The cost of protecting the Melbourne-based producer’s bonds against non-payment has risen 23 basis points over the past 12 months to 87 basis points as of Friday and is at its highest level in almost five years versus the local credit-default swap benchmark, CMA data show.
  • Gold Leads Commodities ‘Mess’ That Has Many Investors Smarting. Pity the commodity investor. The Bloomberg Commodities Index dropped to a 13-year low Monday, weaker than after the banking meltdown of 2008 and the euro-zone crisis of 2012. From oil to copper to sugar, little has escaped the rout in the year’s worst-performing asset class. “Commodities are a mess,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, in a telephone interview. “We are not looking to add to positions.”
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Apple(AAPL) earnings: Can it weather the China storm? (video) As critical as China has become to Apple's future, the tumbling stock market there has yet to dampen investor enthusiasm for the iPhone maker. Heading into Tuesday's quarterly earnings report, investors are bullish: Shares are up 40 percent in the past year, topped by an almost 6 percent rally over the last week.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider: 
Information: 
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) Said Preparing 'Several Thousand' Layoffs. Execs preparing to lay off as many as several thousand employees as smartphone prices fall and competition increases, citing people inside and outside the company.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.5 -.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.25 -1.25 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (ATI/.05
  • (BHI)/-.13
  • (BK)/.66
  • (CP)/2.48
  • (HOG)/1.40
  • (INFY)/13.14
  • (LXK)/.85
  • (MAN)/1.27
  • (NVR)/19.02
  • (PNR)/.95
  • (RF)/.20
  • (SAP)/.84
  • (AMTD)/.36
  • (UTX)/1.72
  • (VZ)/1.00
  • (WWW)/.20
  • (AAPL)/1.80
  • (CMG)/4.45
  • (GPRO)/.26
  • (ILMN)/.77
  • (ISRG)/3.98
  • (LLTC)/.56
  • (MSFT)/.57
  • (NBR)/-.09
  • (VMW)/.91
  • (YHOO)/.19
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Revisions: US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Bank of Japan Minutes, German IFO Index, Australian inflation report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Investor Performance Angst, Restaurant/Drug Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.05 +.84%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.59 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.30 +2.22%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.64 +.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +39.58%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +9.52%
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 -17.79% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.58 +.42%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,516.0 +1.30%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.46 -2.59%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.49 -3.76%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.22 -.87%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 300.73 +1.50%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.35 +.14%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 167.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.39/Metric Tonne +3.41%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.8 +3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.5 +4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.10 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 -1.0 basis point
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.56 -.27
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -344 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long