Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.08%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.68% 2) Oil Service +1.54% 3) Steel +1.32%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• THOR, SXC, SANM, STLD, WERN, INFY, CNX, EFII and HAL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ACHN 2) KKR 3) QEP 4) RSX 5) NFX
  

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ZION 2) HAL 3) SANM 4) HOG 5) ANAC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running 4.3% Above 100-day average
• 3 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 44.8% of Issues Advancing, 52.0% Declining
• 63 New 52-Week Highs, 139 New Lows
• 42.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.1
• Vix 12.44
• Total Put/Call .88
• TRIN/Arms .70

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 

Bloomberg: 

• Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say. Don’t pack away the currency presses just yet, Greece’s euro exit may be back on the table next year. There’s still a danger that Greece will be forced out of the euro region by the end of 2016, according to 71 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey of 34 economists. Seventy percent said they reckon Greece should be safe for the rest of 2015, though almost half said they thought the 86 billion-euro ($93 billion) bailout package Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is targeting will prove to be too small.

• The Brokers Left Stranded When China’s IPO Party Suddenly Ended. China’s sudden halt to a frenzy of initial public offerings came at just the wrong time for underwriters Everbright Securities Co., Guotai Junan Securities Co. and China Merchants Securities Co. The trio are the firms with the largest number of IPOs in limbo -- approved by regulators but yet to be completed -- after the government imposed an indefinite suspension this month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Each has three on hold. 

• RBA Says Growth Likely Slowed Last Quarter, Aussie Too High. Australia’s central bank said growth probably slowed last quarter and the currency is offering less assistance than would be expected given weaker commodity prices. “Non-mining business investment had been subdued,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes released Tuesday of its July 7 meeting, when it kept interest rates unchanged at a record-low 2 percent. “Surveys of businesses’ investment intentions suggested that it would remain so over the coming year.” 

• Asian Stocks Climb, Led by Consumer Shares, as Yen Buoys Topix. Asian stocks rose as a weaker yen buoyed Japanese equities and consumer shares advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 144.51 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Consumer companies led gains, while energy shares were the worst performers for a second day. Crude oil fell below $50 a barrel on Tuesday, as gold traded near a five-year low.

• Iron Ore Supply to Overwhelm Weak China Demand, Goldman(GS) Predicts. Rising seaborne iron ore supplies over the next two quarters will probably overwhelm weak demand from mills in China, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which said that a global glut was entering its second year. While housing starts in China have recovered and the infrastructure has overtaken property to become the largest market for steel, an improvement this half may not be strong enough to support iron ore, the bank said in a report. Prices are seen dropping over the next four quarters, from $49 a metric ton through September to $44 by the April-to-June period of 2016, according to analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai.

• BHP(BHP) creditors becoming more wary. BHP Billiton Ltd.’s creditors are becoming more wary as plunging energy and metal prices weigh on the outlook for debt sold by the world’s biggest miner. The cost of protecting the Melbourne-based producer’s bonds against non-payment has risen 23 basis points over the past 12 months to 87 basis points as of Friday and is at its highest level in almost five years versus the local credit-default swap benchmark, CMA data show.

• Commodities Will Face a Lot of Headwind: Fross. (video)

• Gold Leads Commodities ‘Mess’ That Has Many Investors Smarting. Pity the commodity investor. The Bloomberg Commodities Index dropped to a 13-year low Monday, weaker than after the banking meltdown of 2008 and the euro-zone crisis of 2012. From oil to copper to sugar, little has escaped the rout in the year’s worst-performing asset class. “Commodities are a mess,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, in a telephone interview. “We are not looking to add to positions.”

Wall Street Journal:

• Shake Shack(SHAK) Stockholders to Sell at Least 4 Million Shares. Danny Meyer and private-equity firm Leonard Green & Partners among selling shareholders.

• The Iran Deal’s Collapsing Rationale. Blowing up the Middle East in order to save it—that’s the logic at work.

CNBC:

• Apple(AAPL) earnings: Can it weather the China storm? (video) As critical as China has become to Apple's future, the tumbling stock market there has yet to dampen investor enthusiasm for the iPhone maker. Heading into Tuesday's quarterly earnings report, investors are bullish: Shares are up 40 percent in the past year, topped by an almost 6 percent rally over the last week.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Stocks Tumble As Labor Market Starts To Crack. (graph)

• New Obama Initiative To Ban Guns For Some Social Security Recipients, Veterans, And Disabled.

• "The Spell Is Broken" In China, Selling Pressure To Remain "Relentless": BofAML (graph)

• Charting The Slow, 30-Year Death Of The US Middle Class In A Global Context. (graph)

• 42 Billion Reasons Why Putin's Time May Be Running Out. (graph)

• Liquidity Is "Thin To Zero": Worried Bond Managers Shrink Trades, Dodge Cash Markets.

• The Greek Economy Is Finished! A Quarter Of Firms Shifting Abroad.

• 95% Of The Real Estate Market In Greece Is "All Cash".

• Martin Armstrong: "Little By Little These People Are Destroying Everything That Made Society Function".

• IBM Revenue Collapse Is Now Worse Than During Peak Of The Financial Crisis. (graph)

• Deja Vu: The Return Of The 4-Horseman Of Tech.

• Commodities Plunging To 2002 Level Sends "Investors" Rushing To Safety Of Overpriced Tech Megacaps. (graph)

Business Insider: 

• Japan is at risk of fading from existence.

• There's an epic amount of office space available in the epicenter of Canada's oil bust.

• Obama has his next pick for the Fed.

• A months-long cyber-attack against the UCLA hospital system could jeopardize 4.5 million people's information.

Information: 

• Qualcomm(QCOM) Said Preparing 'Several Thousand' Layoffs. Execs preparing to lay off as many as several thousand employees as smartphone prices fall and competition increases, citing people inside and outside the company.

Financial Times:

• QE feeding Europe house price bubble, says study.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.5 -.25 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.25 -1.25 basis points.

• S&P 500 futures +.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (ATI/.05

• (BHI)/-.13

• (BK)/.66

• (CP)/2.48

• (HOG)/1.40

• (INFY)/13.14

• (LXK)/.85

• (MAN)/1.27

• (NVR)/19.02

• (PNR)/.95

• (RF)/.20

• (SAP)/.84

• (AMTD)/.36

• (UTX)/1.72

• (VZ)/1.00

• (WWW)/.20

• (AAPL)/1.80

• (CMG)/4.45

• (GPRO)/.26

• (ILMN)/.77

• (ISRG)/3.98

• (LLTC)/.56

• (MSFT)/.57

• (NBR)/-.09

• (VMW)/.91

• (YHOO)/.19

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Revisions: US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of Japan Minutes, German IFO Index, Australian inflation report and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Investor Performance Angst, Restaurant/Drug Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.05 +.84%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.59 +.16%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.30 +2.22%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.64 +.62%

• ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +39.58%

• Total Put/Call .92 +9.52%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 -17.79% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.58 +.42%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,516.0 +1.30%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.46 -2.59%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.49 -3.76%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.22 -.87%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 300.73 +1.50%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.35 +.14%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 28.25 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 167.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.39/Metric Tonne +3.41%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.8 +3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.5 +4.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.10 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 -1.0 basis point

• # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.56 -.27

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +189 open in Japan 

• China A50 Futures: Indicating -344 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• China Stock Resumptions Dwindle as 20% of Shares Stay Halted. A fifth of China’s stock market remains frozen as the number of companies resuming trading slows to a trickle. A total of 576 companies were suspended on mainland exchanges as of the midday break on Monday, equivalent to 20 percent of total listings, and down from 635 at the close on Friday. The halted firms are valued at an average 243 times reported earnings, compared with 164 times for all companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The ongoing suspensions are raising doubts about the sustainability of a rebound in Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed about 14 percent from its July 8 low, following a 32 percent plunge that helped erase almost $4 trillion of value. The number of companies with trading halts exceeded 1,400, or around 50 percent of listings, during the height of the rout as the government took increasingly extreme measures to shore up equities.
• Shrinking China Trade Drags on Hong Kong to Singapore Banks. The business of financing China’s trade is shrinking, curbing what had been a fast-growing revenue stream for banks in Hong Kong and Singapore over the past decade. Since reaching a peak of about $145 billion in June last year, the value of trade loans provided by lenders in the two financial hubs has tumbled 20 percent due to the slowing Chinese economy and a slump in commodity prices, central bank data show.
• Audi Gives $193 Million in Financial Aid to Dealers in China. Audi AG is providing 1.2 billion yuan ($193 million) in financial aid to its dealers in China as demand for luxury vehicles slows in its largest market, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The money will be paid out soon to distributors of the brand in China, according to two people familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public. The automaker also lowered its sales target for 2015 from 600,000 units to about last year’s level, the people said. It delivered 578,932 vehicles in China including Hong Kong last year.
• Greeks Line Up as Banks Reopen in Start to Return to Normalcy. Greeks lined up outside banks after they reopened Monday with basic services, three weeks after closing to stop a rush on withdrawals after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called a referendum over spending cuts. “I’ll now be able to start paying bills again as I don’t have phone or Internet banking,” said Diana Sotiropoulou, 60, a retired restaurant owner who was waiting in a line outside a bank in Varkiza, outside Athens, to make a transfer to pay a power bill. “Before, there was no way I was going to wait in line for four days at an ATM to withdraw 240 euros ($260) to pay the bill.”
• Brazil in Crisis Means 93 Company Downgrades Just the Beginning. Brazil is keeping credit-rating companies busy. Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings have dished out 93 corporate downgrades since Jan. 1, already more than in any full year since 2002, and they may not be done. Speculation is mounting that Moody’s -- which met with officials in Brazil last week -- will lower the country’s rating, a move that would trigger cuts for businesses with close ties to the government, such as state-controlled companies and banks. 
• Confidence Plunges in Canada as Officials Quibble Over R-Word. All this talk about a recession is making people nervous. A weekly gauge of Canadian consumer sentiment dropped to a four-month low last week after the Bank of Canada said the nation’s economy “contracted modestly” in the first half, sparking a debate among policy makers and economists about whether the shrinkage qualifies as a recession. 
• Emerging-Market Gold Producers Slide as Lira Drops Most in Month. Emerging-market stocks fell for a second day as a slump in precious metals sent South African gold producers tumbling. Turkey’s lira slid the most in a month amid speculation the country will hold early elections. Zijin Mining Group Co. lost 6.3 percent in Hong Kong and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. sank to a record in Johannesburg as gold plunged to the lowest since 2010. A gauge of technology firms declined for the first time in four days. OAO AK Bars Bank started investor meetings for what may be Russia’s biggest Eurobond sale since November. The lira depreciated 1.7 percent versus the dollar as Brazil’s real retreated 0.5 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index decreased 0.8 percent to 934.59 at 2:13 p.m. in New York.
• Europe Stocks Climb for Ninth Day in Longest Streak Since 2014. Takeover activity and receding concerns over Greece sent European stocks up for a ninth day. OCI NV rallied 14 percent after CF Industries Holdings Inc. said it’s in preliminary talks about a combination with some businesses of the Dutch maker of fertilizers. Aveva Group Plc jumped 27 percent after Schneider Electric SE agreed to merge its software business with the U.K. company. Pearson Plc trimmed a loss of as much as 3.2 percent after people familiar with the matter said it’s exploring a sale of the Financial Times. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.3 percent to 406.8 at the close of trading in London.
• Crude Falls Below $50 for First Time Since April on Glut Concern. Crude slumped below $50 a barrel in New York for the first time in more than three months on speculation that Iranian shipments will climb, extending a global glut. West Texas Intermediate decreased as much as 1.9 percent. Iran will focus on regaining oil sales it lost due to sanctions regardless of the impact on prices, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in Tehran Monday. U.S. crude stockpiles remain almost 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of the year, Energy Information Administration data show.
• Fed’s Bullard Sees More Than 50-50 Chance of September Rate Rise. There’s a more than 50-50 chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. “The economy is much closer to normal today than it’s been in quite a while, certainly over the last five years,” Bullard said Monday in an interview on Fox Business Network. “The main problem is we are in emergency settings for monetary policy.”
• Yellen's 7 Reasons to Expect a 2015 Rate Increase. 
• Obama Adviser Obstfeld Appointed as IMF’s Next Chief Economist. A White House adviser who co-wrote an international economics textbook with Nobel laureate Paul Krugman was named the next research director of the IMF. Maurice Obstfeld, appointed a member of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers in June 2014, will succeed Olivier Blanchard in September as the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, the Washington-based institution said Monday in an e-mailed statement.
• AshleyMadison.com Hack Threatens Millions of Would-Be Adulterers. (video) Adultery website AshleyMadison.com has been hacked, potentially exposing names, addresses, and sexual preferences of millions of would-be cheaters just as the site’s owner was preparing to go public. Avid Life Media Inc., the Toronto company that runs the site with the tagline “Life is short, Have an affair,” said Monday that hackers had gained access to its systems and that it was working with police to investigate the breach. A group or individual called The Impact Team has claimed responsibility for the attack, and has already leaked maps of company servers, staff information, and company bank accounts, according to cyber-security blog Krebs on Security. In a message overlaid on the AshleyMadison homepage, the hackers threatened to publish the stolen information unless the site and its peer EstablishedMen.com are taken offline.

Wall Street Journal:

• Clinton to Push Revamp of Capital-Gains Tax Rates. Move is part of a broader plan to prod companies to emphasize longer-term growth.
• Federal Reserve Finalizes Amount of Capital Big Banks Must Maintain. J.P. Morgan faces highest capital increase of the group at 4.5% of risk-weighted assets.

Fox News: 

• UN Security Council endorses Iran deal, Tehran diplomat lashes out at US. (video) The U.N. Security Council on Monday unanimously endorsed the Iran nuclear deal, though the show of support was interrupted shortly afterward by a war of words between the American and Iranian ambassadors. Iran's ambassador lashed out at the U.S. mere moments after the vote, in retaliation for U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power bringing up Tehran's human rights record.

CNBC:

• Interest-only mortgages: They're baaack.
• Jim Paulsen: The Fed may cause 'full blown' correction. (video)

ZeroHedge:

• Last Night's Gold Slam So Furious It Halted The Market Not Once But Twice, And The Funniest "Explanation" Yet. "We do see a lot of people in China selling gold to get fast cash to go back into the equity market," said a Singapore-based trader.
• Wall Street's Incessant Rose-Colored Glasses.
• Q1 GAAP EPS Lowest Since 2012: The S&P500 Is Now Trading Over 20x PE Using Unadjusted Earnings. (graph)
• Value-Added-Tax-nado: Greeks Face Soaring Food & Tourism Costs.
• Greeks Get First Look At Their Future: Long Bank Lines And Punishing Taxes. (pics)
• Greek "Hell" Remains After Athens Uses Creditor Money To Repay Creditors. 
• Mexican Peso Plunges To 16/USD - Record Lows. (graph)
• The Song Remains The Same. (graph)
• Terrorist Bomb Blast In Turkish Town Leaves Dozens Dead: Moment Of Explosion Caught On Video. (video)

Business Insider:

• BLACKSTONE(BX): There's a hidden crisis in America that no one is talking about.
• Making money has become optional for tech companies.
• Morgan Stanley(MS) has a 'misery index' of the political parties most likely to cause Syriza-style chaos outside Greece.
• PayPal(PYPL) starts trading above $40 and it’s already worth billions more than eBay(EBAY).
• Charlie Hebdo will stop drawing Prophet Muhammad cartoons.
• Actually, Iraq is the oil market's biggest problem. Iraqi production has risen consistently over recent quarters, but surged ahead in 2Q2015 prompting us to conclude that Iraq will likely overtake Saudi Arabia as the biggest contributor to OPEC growth this year.

Telegraph:

• Greece news live: Government clears its debts as banks reopen for first time three weeks. Financial system re-opens with capital controls in place as analysts warn threat of Grexit has not receded.

Handelsblatt:

• Germany's Krichbaum Says Greek Exit Still Option. German lawmaker Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of the European Affairs committee in the lower house of parliament, says he still considers Greece's exit from the euro region an option because he won't accept a deal on a third bailout package at any price, citing an interview. Debt forgiveness for Greece out of the question as long as Greece is a euro member, he said. Says he doubts Greece's debt is sustainable.

Xinhua:

• Carmakers Cut Prices at China Show to Clear Inventory. 12th China Changchun International Automobile Expo ended Sunday racked up 5.7 billion yuan in vehicle sales, citing organizers. 70% of cars on display priced below market.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.62%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -7.8% 2) Internet -4.42% 3) Disk Drives -2.03%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• MSB, KODK, NEWP, HMSY, AFMD, ITCI, SUN, VNR, CALM, VTL, GOOG, RGLD, HRTG, FNV, NEM, GG, NEOT, PSXP, GOLD, SLW, MACK, ETSY, HCI, GPC, WHR, OPHT, MEMP, TERP, BOX, HTZ, CF and EPZM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CPN 2) AKS 3) HOG 4) DHI 5) TSO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) YELP 2) PBR 3) Z 4) URI 5) XOM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume