Thursday, July 23, 2015

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.13%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Networking +1.79% 2) Computer Hardware +1.47% 3) Semis +1.28%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CARA, FTK, CRUS, AFOP, SNDK, ADPT, INFN, FTNT, UA, FBHS, ASPS, FFIV, RTN, CY, SRNE, USG, CUDA, LUV, GM and RS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XRX 2) NTAP 3) INFN 4) ADI 5) BCEI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SNDK 2) CRUS 3) FTNT 4) LUV 5) UA
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Greece Approves EU Demands in Order to Keep the Euro. Greece passed a second bundle of policy measures demanded by the country’s European creditors as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras urged lawmakers to stop the country being forced out of the euro. Tsipras won the support of at least 151 lawmakers in a televised, public vote in the 300-seat parliament in Athens for a bill that will simplify court decisions and transpose European rules on failing banks. Echoing the rhetoric of the predecessors he once demonized, Tsipras said he’ll implement the creditors’ program even though he thinks the policies being imposed are wrong. He insisted he’ll do everything he can to improve the final deal. 
  • Catalans Spur the Remaking of Spain With Battle for Independence. Catalonia’s bid for independence has opened the floodgates: Now all Spain’s major parties are looking to remake the way the way the state’s power is carved up. Catalan President Artur Mas plans to use voting for the region’s parliament on Sept. 27 -- weeks before national elections are due -- as a de-facto referendum on leaving Spain. Just as the Scottish independence movement has prompted a rethink of how the U.K. is governed, Spain’s national parties are responding with plans to prevent the disintegration of a country whose mainland borders are unchanged since the 17th century. 
  • China Auto Market in ‘Downward Spiral,’ Japan Group Says. China’s vehicle market has shown signs of a “downward spiral” that will eventually hit Japanese carmakers, according to the head of Japan’s auto association. “There’s excessive competition and carmakers are building excessive capacity, and to raise utilization of the plants, they will engage in excessive selling,” Fumihiko Ike, chairman of Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, told reporters in Tokyo Thursday. Japanese automakers are coming off a record first-half in China, cementing a comeback from anti-Japanese protests in 2012, even as competitors like Volkswagen AG and Hyundai Motor Co. posted sales declines. The gains are a bright spot in the world’s largest car market, which is headed for the slowest expansion in four years as economic growth moderates and cities cap vehicle registrations. The slump in demand has prompted automakers to cut prices, threatening profit margins.
  • Fitch Sees Risk in Japan Relying on Growth for Debt Reduction. Fitch Ratings Ltd. said Japan’s increasing reliance on economic growth to cut its debt burden exposes the nation to greater risks. Relying on growth as the “primary engine of fiscal stabilization is riskier” than focusing on reducing deficits and government borrowing, Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch Ratings’ head of Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings, said in an interview in Tokyo on July 21. The government’s target of a primary budget surplus five years from now “is a bit of a tall order,” he said.
  • Asian Stocks Rise as Japan Rally Counters Drop in Mining Shares. Asian stocks rose as a rally in Japanese equities countered a decline in mining shares amid a deepening commodities rout. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 143.76 as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo. A gauge of commodities returned to a 13-year low, with a rout that started in gold infecting other metals, oil and farm products. 
  • Copper Slumps to Two-Week Low as Goldman Gets Even More Bearish. Copper dropped to the lowest in two weeks after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts and said China’s demand will grow at the slowest in almost two decades. Goldman Sachs lowered its copper price outlook by as much as 44 percent through 2018 as consumption in China weakens and supply expands faster than expected. The bank’s gloomier forecasts on Wednesday came amid a fresh rout in commodities markets, as industrial metals, gold and iron ore tumbled. 
  • Cotton Stockpiles in India Swell to Record as China Cuts Imports. Cotton stockpiles in India are poised to jump to a record as exports plunge and a revival in monsoon rains boost crop prospects. Inventories will surge 25 percent to 7.39 million bales by October from 5.89 million a year earlier, the Cotton Association of India estimates. That would be the highest ever, data from the nation’s Cotton Advisory Board show. The surplus may further widen with next year’s harvest likely to be a near record 40 million bales, according to trader Gill & Co.
  • Distressed-Debt Market Upended Amid Deepening Commodities Rout. The worst commodities slump in 13 years is wreaking havoc for investors seeking to profit from companies in distress. Distressed bonds have lost 8.2 percent this month as oil and coal prices slid, bringing this year’s loss to 12.2 percent, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch index that tracks the debt. The securities are on pace to lose more than 20 percent for the second straight year, the worst performance since 2008. SandRidge Energy Inc. bonds have lost almost 30 percent since June, while notes of miner Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. are down more than 27 percent.
  • Fed September Liftoff Odds Stay at 50% Despite Global Troubles. Forget the world crises. Six weeks of international turmoil from Greece to China have had zero impact on economists’ outlook for the first Federal Reserve rate rise. Odds for a September liftoff remain at 50 percent, exactly where they were in June, according to the median of 46 responses in a July 20-22 survey. They assigned 40 percent odds to a later move and saw no chance of a decision when the Federal Open Market Committee gathers July 28-29 in Washington. The outlook for a September move remained intact even as crises in Greece and China temporarily rocked markets and dimmed global economic prospects. Now that those concerns have eased, U.S. policy makers can focus on their dual mandate for full employment and low, stable inflation at home.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Giant Hedge Fund Bridgewater Flips View on China: ‘No Safe Places to Invest’. Investment firm warns that recent stock gyrations will have broad, negative repercussions. The world’s biggest hedge fund has turned on the world’s fastest-growing economy. Bridgewater Associates LP, one of Wall Street’s more outspoken bulls on China, told investors this week that the country’s recent stock-market rout will likely have broad, far-reaching repercussions.
  • The Calamity of Obama’s Iran Deal by Mitt Romney. If the ayatollahs have a nuclear weapon, they will use it. Now they’re on the path to get one. When giving Moses the Ten Commandments, God says that he will “visit the iniquity of the fathers upon the children unto the third and fourth generation.” Of course, God doesn’t have to punish these later generations himself; rather, the perils that follow are the natural course of events. Bad actions or bad choices made by one generation lead
Fox News:
MarketWatch.com: 
  • Here’s the real reason the Fed wants to raise rates. Federal Reserve policy makers are hoping, even praying, that no unexpected domestic development or international crisis intervenes to prevent them from taking the first baby step to normalize interest rates at the Sept.16-17 meeting. Why? Fed officials point to a number of reasons: the unnatural state of a near-zero benchmark rate; the potential risk of financial instability; an improving labor market; diminishing headwinds; and yes, expectations of 3% growth just over the horizon.
CNBC:
  • Qualcomm(QCOM) cuts workforce by 15%; stock turns down. (video) Qualcomm announced Wednesday that it would cut its workforce by about 15 percent contributing to a total of $1.4 billion in cost reductions. It also announced changes to its board and executive compensation. Shares were up as high as 2 percent in extended trading before reversing to a drop of nearly 2.5 percent
Business Insider: 
  • The death of US coal. After decades of strong financial numbers and dominance in the electric power sector, coal producers are starting to fall apart faster than anyone could have anticipated. SNL Financial has produced some jaw dropping data on the quickly deteriorating coal industry, with a horrific performance in the second quarter.
Reuters:
  • Texas Instruments(TXN) revenue forecast misses on weak chip demand. Texas Instruments Inc forecast third-quarter revenue below analysts' expectations due to weak demand for its chips used in PCs and industrial and communications equipment. The company, which also reported lower-than-expected revenue for the second quarter, said its communications business was hurt by weak demand from wireless base stations. Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said the company did not expect any recovery in communications or PC markets in the current quarter. "With industrial slowing a bit like it did in the second quarter, we are expecting that our third quarter will be probably a little bit weaker than we would normally expect at this time of the year," March told Reuters.
  • F5 Networks(FFIV) revenue, profit beat as services income jumps. Network equipment maker F5 Networks Inc reported higher-than-expected quarterly revenue and profit as it earned more from services including cybersecurity and data traffic management. F5's revenue from its services business rose 15.5 percent to $234.8 million in the third quarter, accounting for nearly half of its total revenue. Shares of the company, which also forecast current-quarter profit above analysts' expectations, rose 6 percent in extended trading on Wednesday.
  • U.S. senator urges probe of Apple's music streaming practices. A U.S. senator wants two federal agencies to investigate whether Apple Inc is breaking antitrust law in how it treats music services that compete with the streaming service it launched in June. Democratic Senator Al Franken in a letter on Wednesday said that he was concerned that some Apple practices could limit choices and raise prices for consumers. The letter was sent to Attorney General Loretta Lynch and Federal Trade Commission Chairwoman Edith Ramirez.
Telegraph:
Caixin:
  • Some China Automakers Cut July Vehicle Output Target. FAW-Volkswagen cuts vehicle output target by ~30,000 units from ~100,000 units, citing people familiar with the matter. A production base of SAIC-GM cuts July output target by ~40% from earlier plan. Changan Ford also cuts production target for July, according to the report.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 -.25 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 59.0 +.75 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (MMM)/1.99
  • (ALK)/1.73
  • (ADS)/3.25
  • (ABC)/1.15
  • (BSX)/.21
  • (BMY)/.36
  • (CAB)/.62
  • (CAM)/.77
  • (CAT)/1.27
  • (CELG)/1.21
  • (CMCSA)/.84
  • (CS)/.54
  • (CY)/.13
  • (DHR)/1.04
  • (DOW)/.82
  • (DNKN)/.48
  • (LLY)/.74
  • (FCX)/.08
  • (GM)/1.08
  • (GNTX)/.25
  • (KMB)/1.36
  • (MCD)/1.24
  • (NUE)/.25
  • (PTEN)/-.27
  • (PHM)/.27
  • (DGX)/1.23
  • (RS)/1.11
  • (R)/1.62
  • (SNA)/2.00
  • (LUV)/1.02
  • (TROW)/1.20
  • (UA)/.05
  • (UNP)/1.35
  • (UAL)/3.31
  • (VRX)/2.47
  • (ALTR)/.25
  • (AMZN)/-.13
  • (T)/.63
  • (COF)/1.97
  • (CB)/1.86
  • (ETFC)/.27
  • (JNPR)/.40
  • (MXIM)/.39
  • (RHI)/.66
  • (SBUX)/.41
  • (V)/.58
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to -.05 versus -.17 in May. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 278K versus 281K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2240K versus 2215K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • The Leading Index for June is estimated to rise +.3% verssu a +.7% gain in May.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -9.0 in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • (ETE) 2-for-1
  • (AZN) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI, Japan Manufacturing PMI, UK retail sales report, $15B 10Y TIPS auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Worries, Global Growth Fears, European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.17 -.41%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.32 -.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 +2.44%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.59 -.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 88.0 +1.15%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -11.83%
  • NYSE Arms .97 -7.22% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.14 +2.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,526.0 -.35%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.43 +2.48%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 22.37 +5.94%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.01 +1.13%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 304.68 +1.82%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.42 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 26.5 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% unch
  • Yield Curve 162.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.76/Metric Tonne -.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.3 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 -2.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.24 +.05
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +44 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -303 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/retail sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Awkward Alliance Running Germany Exposed by Greek Crisis. In 2000, Angela Merkel pushed past Wolfgang Schaeuble on her way to the top of the political ladder. As finance minister, he’s won her pledge of a free hand in policy making in exchange for his loyalty. Now the awkward alliance that forms the core of Europe’s financial crisis-fighting effort is under its biggest strain yet. As officials prepare a third Greek bailout, Merkel is holding fast to the view that the 19-member currency union must stay intact. Schaeuble has pushed back, dangling the threat of expulsion to what he considered an untrustworthy government.
  • European Banks Face Capital Hit From Second-Quarter Bond Selloff. The bond market selloff in the second quarter probably dented the capital defenses of many European banks, with lenders in Italy and Spain hit hardest. The extent of the damage will be disclosed when banks report earnings starting this week. It probably won’t be so much as to force lenders to sell shares, analysts at brokerages including Nomura Holdings Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. agreed.
  • Rating-Cut Angst Lurks as Brazil Stocks, Real Decline on Budget. Traders now have one more reason to expect a downgrade of Brazil’s credit rating. A press report saying President Dilma Rousseff will cut the primary budget surplus goal, which excludes interest payments, spurred the biggest slide in the world for the real and sank the Ibovespa. An earlier-than-estimated revision of the target is seen hurting the government’s credibility and worsening the outlook for an economy set for the worst recession in 25 years. The Ibovespa retreated 1.6 percent to 50,653.63 at 3:06 p.m. in Sao Paulo, led by lender Itau Unibanco Holding SA. The real slid 1.7 percent to 3.2240 per dollar, the most in two months.
  • Russia Braces for Longest Recession in Decades With $50 Oil. For an economy that lives and dies by crude prices, the latest downturn in the world oil market means Russia’s recession may stretch into next year for the longest slump in two decades. Russia’s first economic slump since 2009 looked like it would plateau as oil gained 40 percent from a six-month low in January. Crude’s recovery has faltered in recent weeks, raising questions about government assurances that the economy will return to growth in 2016 and further squeezing a budget already on course for its widest deficit in five years.
  • ARM(ARMH) Revenue Misses Estimates as Smartphone Market Cools. ARM Holdings Plc, the chip designer whose technology powers almost all smartphones, reported sales that missed analysts’ estimates after device shipments by customers including Apple Inc. trailed predictions. Second-quarter revenue rose 22 percent to 228.5 million pounds ($356 million), the Cambridge, England-based company said Wednesday. Analysts had predicted 234.9 million pounds on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 
  • Emerging-Market Stocks Retreat as Apple Outlook Saps Tech Shares. Emerging-market stocks fell, led by technology companies, as Apple Inc.’s lower-than-forecast iPhone shipments and disappointing revenue forecast dragged down suppliers and Hong Kong-traded Chinese stocks slumped. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which makes iPhones for Apple, slid 1.6 percent in Taipei. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index sank to a one-week low. Naspers Ltd. led declines in South Africa. The Ibovespa fell for a fourth day as concern mounted that Brazil’s credit rating will be cut. Turkey’s lira slid 1 percent against the dollar after two police officers were killed in an attack along the Syrian border. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index declined 1 percent to 930.34 at 11:24 a.m. in New York.
  • European Stocks Fall for Second Day Amid Apple Miss, Earnings. European stocks fell after Apple Inc.’s worse-than-forecast results dragged semiconductor companies lower and commodity producers deepened declines. Apple chip suppliers Dialog Semiconductor Plc and Infineon Technologies AG lost at least 5.2 percent. ARM Holdings Plc, whose technology is used in iPhones, tumbled 6.6 percent. The company’s quarterly revenue also missed estimates. BHP Billiton Ltd. slid 5.7 percent, leading a drop in miners, after saying petroleum, copper and coal output will drop in fiscal 2016. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.6 percent to 400.28 at the close of trading.
  • Gold Rout Spreads to Copper, Tin and Zinc. Nothing is safe. The selloff in gold is infecting metal markets from copper to zinc and tin. “Commodities are not in vogue,” Daniel Briesemann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail. “The speculative financial investors are still withdrawing from the markets. The weakness of the precious metals prices is spilling over to the base metals.” Copper, zinc and lead fell more than 1 percent. The worst losses were in tin, which fell as much as 4.9 percent, the most this month.
  • Commodity Losses Accelerate as Miners See Lows of 2009 Crisis. The commodities rout that’s pushed prices to a 13-year low pulled some of the biggest mining and energy companies below levels seen during the financial crisis. The FTSE 350 Mining Index plunged as much as 4.9 percent to the lowest since 2009 on Wednesday, with BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo American Plc leading declines. Gold and copper are near the lowest in at least five years, while crude oil retreated to $50 a barrel. “This commodity bear market is like a train wreck in slow motion,” said Andy Pfaff, the chief investment officer for commodities at MitonOptimal in Cape Town. “It has a lot of momentum and doesn’t come to a sudden stop.”
  • This measure of copper is another bad omen for the commodities meltdown. A measure of demand for copper, the metal used in everything from power lines to electronics, is at the weakest in more than two years, signaling the meltdown that’s sweeping through commodity markets could get even worse. The number of requests to withdraw copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses relative to the level of global inventories tracked by the bourse dropped this week to the lowest since March 2013. That shows consumption has almost dried up for the stockpiles that have doubled over the past year.
  • Americans Fleeing Pricey Cities as Foreigners Rush In. New York City, Los Angeles, Honolulu: They're all places you would think would be popular destinations for Americans. So it might come as a surprise that these are among the cities U.S. residents are fleeing in droves. Twenty metropolitan areas among the 100 most populous in the United States lost the greatest share of local people to other parts of the country between July 2013 and July 2014, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data. The New York City area ranked second, just behind  El Paso, Texas. New York lost about a net 163,000 U.S. residents, closely followed by a couple surrounding suburbs in Connecticut. Honolulu ranked fourth and Los Angeles ranked 14th.
  • Taxpayers Could Lose Billions If Students Walk Away From Loans. Cody Roderiques, a college senior, owes the federal government more than $100,000 for his student loans. He may not have to pay taxpayers back. That’s because the New England Institute of Art is vanishing around him. On the campus of the for-profit college near Boston, studios were shuttered, teachers lost their jobs and the school announced in May it was closing for good. Under U.S. law, the institution’s death might excuse Roderiques, who will graduate in December, from his loan debt.
ZeroHedge: 
Bild:
  • Germany's Krichbaum Says No Greek Aid Without Reforms. German CDU lawmaker Gunther Krichbaum, chairman of European Affairs committee in lower house of parliament, says Greece's implementation of reforms is being observed very closely and aim will only be released if terms are fulfilled, citing an interview. Krichbaum said Greek exit is still an option.
WirtschaftsWoche:
  • Issing Says Greek Euro Exit Will Be Topic Again in Months. Former ECB chief economist Otmar Issing says a possible Greek exit from the euro region will be on the agenda again within months, citing an interview. "I don't think that a Grexit would be the beginning of the end of the euro," he said. "If Greece drops out, the others move together even more closely in order to avoid a similar fate. I'm convinced of that," While state bankruptcy laws are needed globally, they can't be applied to euro region members because "it would be absurd if a country that can't service its debt with the ECB would receive further loans for its banks from Frankfurt," Issing said. Loans to Greece are "largely lost", creditors are likely to extend maturities by several decades. "Officially this is not a haircut, but boils down to the same thing. At a company you'd call this accounting fraud," he said. Political union that would fix the euro area's shortcomings is not in sight. "I can't imagine that a majority would vote in favor of a political union - neither in France nor in Germany. Therefore, reforms aimed at an unattainable political union should be banned," Issing said.
Shanghai Securities News:
  • China Securities Finance's Stake in Some Stocks Exceeded 5%. China Securities Finance Corp. transferred some shares to asset management account at fund co. after figuring out that its holdings in some stocks exceeded 5% of listed cos.' total equity, citing a company official. Shares transferred haven't been sold.
Caijing:
  • China Mobile Cuts Managers' Pay by 20%-50%. Compensation of senior executives will be cut by as much as 50% while that of junior managers will be reduced by 20%, citing a pay cut plan released at co.'s interim meeting. The pay cut is implemented based on salary reform plan for managers at central government administered cos. announced earlier.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Gowth -.56%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -2.93% 2) Oil Service -2.31% 3) Steel -2.12%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BEAV, ARMH, FWRD, PEGI, ILMN, BHI, HCLP, TUP, GPRO, ASTE, LLTC, PII, FTI, CNMD, EXPO, BIIB, HAL, AAPL, ATI, PKX, NXPI, MEMP, BMI, OII, TXT, SXC, LXK, CAT, AN, MCHP, ABG, IPI, RDUS, ON, INVN, PII, CAM, SWKS, CRUS and ADI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MOS 2) UTX 3) ILMN 4) XLNX 5) CAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHK 2) ADI 3) BIIB 4) CAT 5) BEAV
Charts: