Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • China's Plan to Clear Bad Loans Could Backfire, IMF Staff Warn. China’s plan to rid banks of bad loans could backfire, allowing debt-laden “zombie” companies to stay afloat and creating conflicts of interest for bankers, International Monetary Fund staffers warned. China is drafting rules to make it easier for lenders to convert bad loans into equity stakes in debtor companies, people familiar with the matter said last month, in a move that would help authorities clean up banks’ soured credit, which has climbed to the highest in a decade. Chinese banks may also repackage non-performing loans and sell them as securities. The Chinese government hasn’t released details of the proposal yet. “While such techniques can play a role in addressing these problems and have been used successfully by other countries, they are not comprehensive solutions by themselves,” the IMF staffers said in a blog post Tuesday that accompanied a short report. “Unless they are carefully designed and part of a sound overall framework, they could actually worsen the problem,” such as by allowing “zombie” firms to survive, they said. Banks don’t generally have the expertise to run or restructure businesses, and debt-to-equity conversions could create conflicts of interest, they warned.
  • Apple(AAPL) Suppliers Fall After Forecast for Slowing IPhone Sales. Apple Inc.’s suppliers’ shares fell in Asia on Wednesday after the iPhone maker posted its first quarterly revenue drop in more than a decade and forecast another decline in the current period. Shares of Taiyo Yuden Co. slumped as much as 5.1 percent in early trade, while those of Alps Electric Co. and Murata Manufacturing Co. fell 5 percent and 5.2 percent respectively -- all of them make the basic electronic parts that go into smartphones. The Nikkei 255 Stock Average was little changed. 
  • Australian Lenders Are Clamping Down on Foreign Buying of Homes. Australian lenders are clamping down on home loans to foreigners as concerns about the health of the nation’s housing market mount. Westpac Banking Corp. will no longer lend to offshore customers who aren’t citizens or who don’t hold appropriate residency visas, it said in an e-mail Wednesday. It follows Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Ltd. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., which have tightened funding to overseas customers. The changes made by the biggest banks in the country are part of a broader scrutiny of foreign buying of Australian homes, which has helped drive a 55 percent jump in home prices across the nation’s capital cities in the past seven years. Rising demand, particularly from China, has triggered community concern that locals are being priced out of the property market, prompting the government to tighten scrutiny of foreign investment. “In line with Westpac Group’s responsible lending practices, we have strengthened our policies regarding non-residents lending and foreign income, which represent a very small component of our loan book,” the Sydney-based lender said.
  • Australian Consumer Prices Unexpectedly Fall. Australia’s core inflation slowed and the consumer price index unexpectedly fell as a rebounding currency cut import prices, giving the central bank scope to ease further if needed. The Reserve Bank of Australia looks at two core inflation measures -- trimmed mean and weighted median -- and Wednesday’s report showed: 
  • Asian Stocks Drop Ahead of Fed, Bank of Japan Policy Meetings. Asian stocks fell as suppliers to Apple Inc. declined and earnings from Canon Inc. disappointed investors, while fund managers awaited policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent to 131.69 as of 11:16 a.m. in Tokyo.
  • Diamond Demand Fell 2% Last Year as Oil Rout, Dollar Hit Buyers. Global diamond demand slipped 2 percent last year as a stronger dollar and collapse in oil income for buyers in Russia and the Middle East offset record purchases in the U.S. Total polished diamond sales fell to $79 billion from $81 billion in 2014, De Beers, the biggest producer, said in a report on Wednesday. Demand in the U.S., the top consumer, rose 5 percent to an all-time high of $39 billion. It was a difficult year for the industry outside of the U.S. as the dollar rose 9 percent against a basket of 10 peers last year, making stones more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Also, Brent crude tumbled toward the lowest in more than a decade, curbing disposable income in oil-producing nations, while China’s slowdown deepened.
  • Apple(AAPL) Forecasts Second Sales Drop as iPhone Woes Deepen. (video) Apple Inc.’s streak of 51 consecutive quarters of uninterrupted sales growth is over -- and its expansion may not resume until late this year. A boom in demand for smartphones, music players and other electronic devices propelled Apple’s annual revenue by $227 billion in the 13 years since the last quarterly drop, resulting in a skyrocketing stock price that made Apple the world’s most valuable company. That era of untrammeled expansion hit a wall in the quarter that ended in March as fewer people upgraded to the latest iPhones, and the company is predicting another decline in the current period. With the introduction of a new model still months away, Apple investors are seeking answers on whether lackluster sales of the device, the company’s biggest revenue generator, reflect a broader slowdown in the market for high-end smartphones -- or just the pause before the next upgrade frenzy. Forecasts from suppliers such as Qualcomm Inc. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have suggested demand is cooling, and stalled economic growth in China is paring Apple’s sales in that region. “I see nothing on the horizon from a component or a technology perspective that’s going to drive these major upgrades,” Bob O’Donnell, chief analyst at TECHnalysis Research LLC, said in a televised interview on Bloomberg West. “We’re going to see people hold onto these things longer, just like we saw with PCs.”
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • Gundlach says 'reasonable' to start moving into Treasuries. Jeffrey Gundlach, the influential head of DoubleLine Capital, said on Tuesday that investors looking to purchase Treasuries in the wake of the bond market's sell-off are making a prudent move. "I think it is a reasonable strategy to start legging into the Treasury market," Gundlach said in a telephone interview. U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting its highest levels in almost five weeks.
21st Century Business Herald:
  • China April Crude Steel Daily Output May Reach Record. China April crude steel daily output may reach record as steel plants are resuming production amid a price increase. Most companies that resumed production are state-owned ones. Lower efficiency at state cos. poses challenge to the nation's plan to cut steel capacity, the report said.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.0 -.75 basis point. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.75 -.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.82 -.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.20%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.01%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (AGCO)/.05
  • (BHI)/-.33
  • (BA)/1.84
  • (BSX)/.24
  • (CMCSA)/.79
  • (DPS)/.86
  • (GCI)/.17
  • (GD)/2.16
  • (GT)/.71
  • (HES)/-1.82
  • (HLT)/.16
  • (IP)/.69
  • (LEA)/2.77
  • (NOC)/2.49
  • (OC)/.35
  • (ROL)/.15
  • (STT)/.90
  • (SUP)/.54
  • (UTX)/1.40
  • (AVB)/1.96
  • (CAKE)/.61
  • (CRY)/.04
  • (DLB)/.61
  • (ESV)/.76
  • (FB)/.62
  • (FSLR)/.92
  • (GG)/.05
  • (MAR)/.84
  • (NE)/.32
  • (PYPL)/.35
  • (RCII)/.40
  • (SNDK)/.54
  • (TXN)/.66
  • (VAR)/1.08
  • (XLNX)/.52 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for March is estimated at -$62.8B versus -$62.86B in February.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for March are estimated to rise +.5% versus a +3.5% gain in February.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,415,000 barrels versus a +2,080,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,034,100 barrels versus a -110,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -675,000 barrels versus a -3,554,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.41% versus a +.2% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate between .25-.5%.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, $28B 7Y T-Note auction and the (CLF) annual meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.04 -.28%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.41 +.38%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.60 -1.94%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.66 -1.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +62.32%
  • Total Put/Call .81 +8.0%
  • NYSE Arms .92 -39.27% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.86 +.30%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,076.0 +4.99%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.18 +1.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.18 -1.11%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 58.05 +.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 281.36 -1.52%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.16 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 39.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.79 +.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% unch.
  • Yield Curve 107.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.78/Metric Tonne -4.98%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -28.0 -2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.30 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.60 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68% +2.0 basis points
  • 21.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 15 meeting, 35.4% chance at July 27 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +182 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Biotech -1.7% 2) Software -1.0% 3) Drugs -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • SRPT, B, VAC, JD, HSII, WYN, CNI, WHR, GLW, TMUS, SPNC, ICLR, WDR, VRTS, SAVE, FLIR, HSY, CMCM, HMST, WAT, TOUR, TARO, CEB, ATRA and HNP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EWT 2) IYR 3) Z 4) MMM 5) WHR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DDD 2) SRPT 3) FDC 4) SPNC 5) CNI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Small-Cap Value +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Hospitals +2.5% 2) Papers +1.5% 3) Steel +1.3% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • KN, CYNO, NXPI, AMID, SANM, MU, TEN, SAH, ETH, BLMN, PAG, AXE and CNC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) PXD 2) ASHR 3) HRB 4) TMUS 5) SYF
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) NEM 2) MU 3) COH 4) UHS 5) DOW
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index: