Tuesday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.25 -2.25 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 37.5 -1.0 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.56 +.03%.
• S&P 500 futures -.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (MRVL)/.11
• (CASY)/1.81
• (PLAY)/.44 

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Labor Market Conditions Index for August.
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite for August is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.5 in July.
• The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September is estimated to fall to 48.1 versus 48.4 in August. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, RBA rate decision, Australia GDP report, weekly US retail sales report and Citi Tech Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Week Ahead by Bloomberg.
• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on yen strength, global growth worries, commodity weakness, technical selling, rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst and Fed rate-hike fears. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

• S&P 500 2,179.98 +.50%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 2,179.98 +.50%

• DJIA 18,491.96 +.53%

• NASDAQ 5,249.89 +.59%

• Russell 2000 1,251.83 +1.11%

• S&P 500 High Beta 32.38 +.16%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 117.53 -.92% 

• Wilshire 5000 22,579.75 +.65%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,050.46 +.28%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,048.72 +.92%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 560.25 +.89%

• Solactive US Cyclical 141.38 +.51%

• Morgan Stanley Technology 1,188.64 +.42%

• Transports 7,946.79 +1.56%

• Utilities 673.11 +.90%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.57 +5.86%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.04 +.39%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,132.02 -.14%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 998.68 -.02%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 270,565 +.75%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 89 -10

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 17.14 +82.73%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 341,288 -3.52%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,787,891 +2.31%

• Total Put/Call .95 -8.65%

• OEX Put/Call .55 -38.20%

• ISE Sentiment 81.0 -25.0%

• NYSE Arms .74 -35.65

• Volatility(VIX) 11.98 -12.23%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.44 -3.78%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.05 -3.55%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.77 -4.03%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,485.19 -.16%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.724 Trillion -.38%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.572 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 28.2 -2.8%

• AAII % Bears 31.5 +6.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 179.99 -3.28%

• Crude Oil 44.44 -6.02%

• Reformulated Gasoline 130.16 -8.32%

• Natural Gas 2.79 -3.05%

• Heating Oil 140.96 -5.85%

• Gold 1,323.20 +.19%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 148.99 -.20%

• Copper 207.80 -.02%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 209.33 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 59.39 USD/Ton +.44%

• Lumber 305.80 -3.47%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,123.18 -1.52%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.5% +10.0 basis points
• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +8.1% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0492 -17.86%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 127.61 +.22%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index .6 -10.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -17.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.90 -1.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 68.0% chance of no change, 32.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/21

• US Dollar Index 95.45 +.79%
• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,534.50 -.62%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.14 +1.74%

• Yield Curve 82.0 +3.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.60% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.417 Trillion +.16%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.21 -1.07%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 356.0 +.03%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 24.57 -.28%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 38.50 -4.41%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 106.93 -2.27%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.0 1.45%

• Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 734.11 -14.32%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 214.66 -4.07%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 131.39 -.22%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.48% -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 52.0 +1.0 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +2.5 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -38.75 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 72.09 +3.39%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 703.0 +2.14%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 87.76 -2.11%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 242.27 -.31%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 137.50 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.354 Trillion +.78%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 981.30 -2.30%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,000 -1,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.46% +3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 545.20 +2.85%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.4 -1.9 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +.4% +10.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.21/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 720.0 +.28%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 694.59 -1.51%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 -10.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,012 +3.44%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.3%

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +5.2%

• Oil Tankers +4.5%

• Hospitals +3.6%

• Papers +2.6%

• Social Media +2.6%

Lagging Sectors

• 3D Printing -.9% 

• Retail -1.1%

• Biotech -1.6%

• Education -2.3%

• Oil Service -2.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (19)

• PI, KPTI, PAHC, CFI, AIR, MATX, VRA, BLOX, MTRX, OXM, SBCF, GEF, BOX, SYRS, CHS, WRLD, ININ, SYNA and NLS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (17)

• FIVE, DSW, HSY, HRB, NCS, FRED, PAY, CORE, SCSC, CYTK, AVAV, SCTY, GIII, VEC, ANF, GCO and DVAX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.0% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 78.8% of Issues Advancing, 18.1% Declining
• 155 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 46.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 30.3%
• Vix 12.24 -9.2%
• Total Put/Call 1.06 +6.0%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -38.33%