Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Losses Accelerate for Europe Stocks on Earnings Disappointments. (video) European shares slid for a third day on growing worries about the health of the region’s companies as energy producers suffered from declines in oil prices. Losses worsened in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, which dropped the most in more than a week, as firms from Bayer AG to builder Vinci SA reported disappointing earnings. Antofagasta Plc led miners down after forecasting a slide in copper production next year, while energy producers including BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc slipped with oil. Real estate companies fell the most since Oct. 6, and other bond proxies suffered, as debt yields climbed. Most industry groups in the Stoxx 600 fell, with the gauge dropping as much as 0.9 percent before closing down 0.4 percent as oil pared its losses.
  • Oil Retreats Below $50 on OPEC Output Deal Concerns. (video)
  • Big Oil Braces for Profit Pain as Refining Safety Net Slips. The world’s biggest oil companies, supported during crude’s collapse by a buoyant refining business, have lost that buffer as brimming fuel stockpiles swamp demand. Profits from turning oil into gasoline and diesel contracted 42 percent last quarter from a year earlier to an average $11.60 a barrel, the weakest for the time of year since 2010, industry data from BP Plc show. The impact of that will be apparent as earnings for the period roll in over the coming weeks.
  • Wall Street CEO Could Become Unwanted Job If Watchdog Gets Way. If a U.S. government watchdog has her way, Wall Street banks could find it very difficult to persuade anyone to sit in the chief executive officer’s chair. Christy Goldsmith Romero, the special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, wants Congress to require chiefs of the largest U.S. banks to sign an annual pledge promising that no criminal or civil fraud has occurred under their watch. If after learning about fraud at their banks CEOs still sign the pledge, they could more easily face consequences such as going to prison. That pledge would ostensibly eliminate protections that top executives typically enjoy because they may not know what happens at lower levels of the bank, and would make it easier for law enforcement to prove criminal intent when misconduct occurs, according to Romero’s proposal. It’s unlikely a divided Congress would approve such an aggressive approach.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • 'Bill Clinton Inc.': Email details how top aides helped make ex-president rich. (video) One of Bill Clinton’s closest confidants outlined in a lengthy 2011 memo how he and another aide helped secure at least $50 million in speaking fees and other ventures for the former president – in addition to raising “the bulk” of funds for the controversial Clinton Foundation. The 12-page memo from Doug Band, released Wednesday by WikiLeaks, was designed to highlight the crucial role he – and his global strategy company Teneo – played in procuring money for the ex-president and Clinton’s namesake foundation.
Zero Hedge:

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -3.6% 2) Hospitals -3.3% 3) Medical Equipment -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IART, EW, ABMD, NUVA, DPLO, ABAX, LUV, COLL, DY, BTI, UA, CMG, WOOF, PNRA, CYNO, AVY, EXAS, LH, RMD, GRUB, INGN, CNI, ALLY, P, SPG, CY, MASI, HES, PTC, POL, RRC, QTS, PZZA, ALLY, RNG, DYN, WYN, AMP, AVY and WMGI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) COG 2) SWN 3) BSX 4) SHLD 5) IEF
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NUVA 2) CHK 3) CMG 4) UA 5) LOW
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +2.3% 2) Networking +1.8% 3) Defense +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LOGI, AKAM, DXPE, IRBT, NCR, UIS, OI, JNPR, LEA, FLIR, TSS, HBAN and ROL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LUV 2) MJN 3) GRPN 4) EXC 5) ETE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AKAM 2) NCR 3) JNPR 4) VMC 5) STLD
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • China's Banks Are Running Out of Ways to Keep Profits Growing. China’s five largest banks are facing an increasingly daunting balancing act as they try to avoid snapping a streak of rising earnings. The state-controlled lenders have managed to keep profits increasing every year since 2004, sending a message about the resilience of China’s financial system. Keeping that trend alive is becoming tougher because of rising bad loans and pressure on lending margins. While analysts expect another quarter of profit growth when Bank of China Ltd., Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of Communications Co. report earnings this week, it might just be a matter of postponing the inevitable. For the full year, the five are projected to post a 2 percent decline in net income, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • Xi’s Agents of Fear Keep Party On Edge as Graft Fight Ploughs On.
  • ‘Tough’ Earnings Season Looming for Australia's Banking Giants. It’s going to be a “tough” earnings season for Australia’s biggest banks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Full-year results due from three of the lenders -- starting with National Australia Bank Ltd. on Thursday -- are poised to show that a record-breaking run of profits is coming to an end amid higher funding costs, lower interest margins and rising bad-debt charges. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. may report its lowest cash profit in four years, while Westpac Banking Corp.’s may be little changed, analyst surveys by Bloomberg indicate. The lenders all reported weaker-than-expected cash profit in the first half, the first time in at least a decade that three of the nation’s largest lenders missed estimates at the same time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
  • Most Asian Stocks Decline as Apple’s Margins Drop; Oil Slides. Most Asian shares dropped and U.S. equity index futures fell after Apple Inc., the world’s largest company, disappointed investors with its first annual decline in sales since 2001. Crude oil slid to a three-week low and South Korea’s won strengthened. About five shares declined for every two that advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, with energy companies leading losses. Apple fell as much as 2.9 percent in after-hours U.S. trading, dragging Nasdaq index futures 0.3 percent lower.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
  • 'We need to clean this up': Clinton aide cried foul on Obama's email denial. (video) One of Hillary Clinton’s top aides urged colleagues to “clean this up” after President Obama claimed in March 2015 he only learned of Clinton’s private email system from news reports -- a statement the aide pointedly challenged by noting the president "has emails" from her non-department address. The directive from Cheryl Mills, one of the Democratic presidential nominee’s most trusted aides, was revealed Tuesday in the newest batch of Campaign Chairman John Podesta’s emails posted by anti-secrecy site WikiLeaks. It is one of several showing how Clinton's inner circle scrambled to correct the record after Obama's initial remarks.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 33.5 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.59 -.01%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.34%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
  • (AGCO)/.36
  • (BIIB)/4.98
  • (BA)/2.62
  • (BSX)/.27
  • (KO)/.48
  • (CMCSA)/.91
  • (GD)/2.38
  • (HES)/-1.24
  • (HLT)/.23
  • (IR)/1.29
  • (LEA)2/96
  • (NSC)/1.44
  • (NOC)/2.81
  • (SPG)/2.68
  • (LUV)/.88
  • (STT)/1.25
  • (WYN)/1.88
  • (ABX)/.20
  • (BWLD)/1.22
  • (ESV)/.13
  • (FFIV)/1.94
  • (MUR)/-.20
  • (NEM)/.50
  • (RHI)/.71
  • (TER)/.27
  • (TSLA)/.05
  • (TXN)/.91
  • (VMW)/1.10
  • (WDC)/1.05 
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for September is estimated at -$60.5B versus -$59.2B in August.
  • Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for September are estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in August.
9:45 am EST
  • Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for October is estimated to rise to 52.5 versus 52.3 in September.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for September are estimated to fall to 600K versus 609K in August.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg Consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,169,000 barrels versus a -5,247,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -550,270 barrels versus a +2,469,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,332,180 barrels versus a -1,240,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.56% versus a -.5% decline prior. 
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA mortgage applications report, $34B 5Y T-Note auction and the (ETH) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.