Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +1.5% 2) Restaurants +1.3% 3) Steel +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PEN, IMOS, AVXS, GK, ADBE, CLW, FIVN, CTAS, ENS, TIF, FTD, WLB, SND, BGS, GSM, FF, MTGE, WTR, HMHC, STLD, CTAS, TXRH, TEX, GES and HEES

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SFM 2) MDCO 3) MNKD 4) ADBE 5) ITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SND 2) ADBE 3) AVXS 4) FIVN 5) TXRH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +55.2% Above 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 57.0% of Issues Advancing, 35.7% Declining
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 58.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.2%
• Vix 10.96 -2.2%
• Total Put/Call 1.01 +16.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 -19.77%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.0 -1.75 basis points.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 26.25 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.95 -.01%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.02%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (TIF)/1.38

Economic Releases

9:15 am EST 

• Industrial Production MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in January.
• Capacity Utilization for February is estimated to rise to 75.5% versus 75.3% in January. 
• Manufacturing Production for February is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.2% gain in January. 

10:00 am EST

• Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for March is estimated to rise to 97.0 versus 96.3 in February.
• The Leading Index for February is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in January. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The President Trump/Angela Merkel meeting at White House and the Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Utility/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.30 -2.84%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.15 +.07%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.05 -2.27%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.90 -3.79%

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +6.86%
  

• Total Put/Call .84 +20.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 -5.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.03 -2.01%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 386.0 -.37%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.62 -2.50%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.23 +.57%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.31 -3.47%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 207.86 -1.28%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 135.98 -.13%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.0 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 42.75 +5.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.5 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.99 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .73% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 120.0 unch.
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $92.61/Metric Tonne +1.85%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.60 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 48.90 -.8 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.60 -.5 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 +2.0 basis points
  
• 53.5% chance of Fed rate hike at May 3 meeting, 60.2% chance at July 26 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my in my biotech/medical sector longs and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Biotech -1.3% 2) Medical Equipment -1.2% 3) HMOs -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PTHN, GES, BGS, HRTG, BIIB and TELL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) OPK 2) HUM 3) EA 4) LB 5) IP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TROV 2) INO 3) MASI 4) NEM 5) BIIB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilders +1.8% 2) I-Banks +1.1% 3) Alt Energy +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TLND, MCRB, KCG, ALRM, ORCL, QTNA, YIN, WSM, FTD, IPDN, DG, MOV, VEEV, FLWS, HTHT, PLSE, RYAAY, ATH, BMCH, MOMO, FTRPR, NCR, INST, YY, LITE, SND, SFM, AXTA, EDIT, GKOS, MTH, BLD, NUE and WYNN

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OPK 2) MDCO 3) VEEV 4) ORCL 5) LITE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INFN 2) ORCL 3) INST 4) CRS 5) LITE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume