Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China's Big-City Homeowners in Austerity Mode Are Weighing on Retail. Last December, Li Qinglei and his wife purchased a 114-square-meter home in western Beijing by taking out a 5.5 million yuan ($800,000) home loan and borrowing more than 1 million yuan from family and friends. Then, they shifted into full-on austerity mode.

• Caution Abates in Asia as Yen Drops, Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap. Japan’s Topix index climbed, recovering some of this week’s slide, as the yen dropped for the first time in nine days. South Korean equities rose with Australian shares, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index extended this week’s gains. The S&P 500 Index had a turbulent Thursday after a delay on a vote on U.S. health care raised speculation President Donald Trump may struggle with other policies. The yen lost 0.2 percent to 111.16 per dollar as of 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo after eight days of gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1 percent. The Topix index rose 0.4 percent, paring this week’s loss to 1.9 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.1 percent. Hang Seng futures rose 0.3 percent.

Wall Street Journal:

• House Republicans Postpone Planned Vote on Health-Care Bill. Last-minute negotiations and lobbying fail to lock down majority support for floor vote on Thursday.

• Did Obama Abuse Raw Intelligence? I couldn’t have seen those transcripts when I led the House intel committee.

• GameStop(GME) Closing At Least 150 Stores Amid Sales Decline. Videogame retailer ending quarterly guidance on two key performance indicators to focus on long-term reinvention targets.

• Eric Mindich’s Eton Park Hedge Fund to Close Down. Poor performance among the issues hurting fund run by youngest partner in Goldman Sachs history.

Fox News:

• Potential 'smoking gun' showing Obama administration spied on Trump team, source says. (video)

MarketWatch: 

• The Dow’s tumultuous 120-year history, in one chart.

CNBC:

• Trump said to be done negotiating, demands Friday health-care vote. (video)

• Head of House Freedom Caucus says GOP needs 30 to 40 votes more to pass Obamacare replacement. (video)

• China’s big five banks to report 2016 earnings next week, here’s what to expect.

• Trader makes $1 million bet that homebuilders will continue to rally. (video)

• After-hours buzz: MU, GME KBH and more.

Zero Hedge:

• NSA To Provide "Smoking Gun" Proof Obama Spied On Trump.

• Ford(F) Warns "Used Car Prices Will Drop For Years".

• 5 Maps That Show China's Biggest Limitations.

• The "Retail Apocalypse" Is Officially Descending Upon America.

• Are Enviro's Trying To Kill Farming In California? 2017 Water Allocations Imply 'Yes'.

• Wikileaks Releases "NightSkies 1.2": Proof CIA Bugs "Factory Fresh" iPhones.

• People Are Ditching Chicago In Record Numbers As Windy City Leads U.S. In Population Loss.

• Vote Fiasco Leads To Longest Dow Losing Streak Since Election, VIX At 2017 Highs. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Westminster attacker Khalid Masood was a career criminal whose neighbours called him 'the vampire'.

• A Fed official warns that another real estate bubble could collapse financial stability.

Telegraph:

• Jean-Claude Juncker thinks he has Britain over a barrel. Au contraire, mon ami: we'll be just fine without you.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 -1.75 basis points. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.16 -.07%. 

• S&P 500 futures +.33%. 

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (FINL)/.70

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST 

• Preliminary Durable Goods Orders for February are estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +2.0% gain in January.  

• Preliminary Durables Ex Transports for February are estimated to  rise +.6% versus unch. in January.

• Preliminary Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for February are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.1% decline in January. 

9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to rise to 54.7 versus 54.2 in February.

• Preliminary Markiet US Services PMI for March is estimated to rise to 54.0 versus 53.8 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bullard speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Williams speaking and the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Healthcare/Tax Reform Worries, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Metals&Mining/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.83 +.16%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.94 -.32%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.24 +.43%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.46 +1.51%

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +22.9%
  

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +14.43%

• NYSE Arms 1.68 +42.94%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.07 -.92%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 408.0 -.68%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.96 -2.0%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.14 -2.29%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.29 +1.38%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 216.23 -.63%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.28 +.18%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 +1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 39.50 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.22 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .76% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 117.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $86.36/Metric Tonne +1.61%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.70 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.70 -1.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.70 -.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point
  
• 52.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 57.5% chance at July 26 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs 

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth Unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.6% 2) Gold & Silver -.9% 3) Gaming -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OEC, MMSI, CTMX, PTC, RARE, CDEV, PFPT, ACN, Z, GOGO, BLCM and SLW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SWC 2) NUS 3) HCA 4) MO 5) HRB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNC 2) DG 3) NSC 4) GOOGL 5) MO

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Hospitals +1.4% 2) Retail +1.1% 3) REITs +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FLXN, LKSD, KEYS, PENN, FIVE, EEQ, LJPC, FEYE, PVH, MLHR, CWST, EGN, AFSI, FINL, SCS, CMC, VRNS, RACE, NKE, SWIR, EEQ, ARRS, INSY and RPT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GGP 2) XLK 3) PYPL 4) FEYE 5) CSX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CHK 2) PVH 3) NKE 4) CPB 5) CTAS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -16.4% Below 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 73.2% of Issues Advancing, 22.8% Declining
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 53.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.7%
• Vix 12.6 -1.3%
• Total Put/Call .97 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.82 +54.8%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.50 unch. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.0 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.24 -.01%. 

• S&P 500 futures +.28%. 

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ACN)/1.30

• (CMC)/.12

• (CAG)/.44

• (SCHL)/-.25

• (GME)/2.29

• (KBH)/.14

• (MU)/.86

• (OXM)/.92

• (RH)/.05

• (SCVL)/.04

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST 

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 240K versus 241K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2040K versus 2030K prior.  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for February are estimated to rise to 565K versus 555K in January.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for March is estimated at 14.0 versus 14.0 in February.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The House vote on AHCA, Fed's Yellen speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, UK Retail Sales report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (CIEN) annual meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.