Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.3% 2) Gaming -1.9% 3) Disk Drives -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• USLV and TRVG

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TWX 2) HOG 3) TJX 4) NTNX 5) LVS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IRBT 2) LVS 3) WWE 4) RATE 5) BOX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.6% 2) Banks +2.0% 3) Insurance +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RATE, KBWB, TEO, XPER, CARA, YTRA, EQT, IMOS, ADMS, HEI, JKS, HUBB, BGC, BGNE, TLK, SOHU, RE, BHI, CNA, AGCO, DGLD, ENTA, BIDU, MCHI, RMP and F

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TWX 2) SO 3) AMLP 4) F 5) WYNN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) F 2) AXP 3) WFC 4) APC 5) BIIB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.5% Below 100-Day Average
• 10 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 73.7% of Issues Advancing, 22.9% Declining
• 66 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 47.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.4%
• Vix 10.5 -6.2%
• Total Put/Call .76 -31.5%
• TRIN/Arms .94 -16.3%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Xi, Abe to Get Calls From Trump as North Asia Tensions Rise. North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are set to dominate phone calls from Donald Trump to the leaders of Japan and China, as the U.S. president’s tougher stance on Kim Jong Un and pressure on nations in North Asia over trade sparks renewed tensions. The separate chats with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping -- scheduled for early Monday in Asia -- precede Trump’s expected meetings with the leaders of Asia’s two biggest economies at the Group of 20 nations summit in Germany this week. They come against the backdrop of a freshly strident tone from the Trump administration about China’s need to rein in Pyongyang, and on Japan and South Korea over trade imbalances with America.
• Merkel Urges G-20 to Seek `Win-Win' Policy For All Before Summit. Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Germany’s partners in the Group of 20 states to avoid deeper divisions in economic policy as these may become irreconcilable, and to seek inclusive “win-win” solutions that benefit all instead. Commenting in her weekly podcast, the German leader said the G-20 summit in Hamburg this week offers a good platform for states to air their “different interests” and is an opportunity to forge common policies that benefit the global economy.
• EU Interior Ministers Meet After Italy Seeks Help on Migrants. The interior ministers of France, Germany and Italy, as well as the European Union commissioner in charge of migration, will meet for dinner in Paris on Sunday after Italy said it could no longer cope alone with arrivals from across the Mediterranean. Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni said June 29 that Italy needed the help of the EU after 10,000 migrants were rescued off its southern coast in one week alone. Italian officials have threatened they may bar entry to Italian ports of non-Italian ships carrying migrants picked up at sea, and have suggested rescued migrants be taken straight to other EU countries.
• The EU’s New Presidency Is Already in Trouble. Days into Estonia’s rotating presidency of the European Union, the Baltic nation’s government is showing signs it may not see out the full six months.
• Total to Sign Milestone Iran Energy Deal Since Sanctions Eased. Iran plans Monday to sign a formal contract with Total SA and China National Petroleum Corp. to develop its share of the world’s biggest natural gas field -- the first investment in the country by an international energy company since sanctions were eased last year. Total and CNPC signed a “heads of agreement” with National Iranian Oil Co. in November to develop phase 11 of the South Pars offshore gas field, a deal that was valued then at $4.8 billion. Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne will be in Tehran for the signing of the formal agreement, Parastoo Younchi, the Iranian oil ministry official in charge of foreign media relations, said Sunday.
• China Robots Displace Workers as Wage Spiral Pressures Profits.
• Asia Stocks, Yen Swing After Tokyo Vote; Oil Gains. Asian stocks fluctuated with the yen in the wake of a crushing defeat of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party in Tokyo elections. Oil climbed for an eighth day. Japan’s Topix index erased an earlier advance while the yen swung between gains and losses. South Korean equities were slightly higher while Australian shares edged lower. Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed as trading gets under way in a shortened holiday week that culminates with Friday’s jobs report. Japan’s Topix index was flat after rising as much as 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added less than 0.1 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.
• Libya's Crude Output Hits a New High Just as Oil Prices Rebound.
• Bets on Oil Rout Seen Peaking as Shale Boom Starts to Falter. Oil short-sellers have been on a roll, but their bets on declining prices may have begun to hit a wall. Hedge fund wagers on lower West Texas Intermediate crude reached the highest level since August in the week ended June 27, after more than doubling in two months, according to Commodities Futures Trading Commission data. The bearish bets increased at a much slower pace than in the previous two weeks, though.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• Republican Senators Face Pushback From Governors on the Health Bill. Some states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA are urging lawmakers to rethink funding cuts.
• With ISIS on the Run, an Unexpected Leader Emerges in Iraq. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who generated few expectations, stitched together a military alliance and damped sectarianism.
• European Central Banks Face Added Political Constraints. The banks’ own rules, along with wider political trends and mixed economic signals complicate any move to tighten policy.
• Caterpillar(CAT) Faces New Questions in Probe. Missing export filings at the manufacturing giant could open a new avenue for U.S. tax investigators.
• The Senate’s Tax Panic. Republicans are now afraid to repeal ObamaCare’s taxes.

Fox News:

• White House battles backlash after Trump tweets 'slam' of CNN. (video)

CNBC: 

• S&P 500 could hit 2,500 this month amid soaring market sentiment: Strategist. (video)
• Seattle's minimum wage hike may have cut wages and jobs: Study author. (video)
• Qatar stock index sinks 3.1 pct before deadline in diplomatic crisis.

Zero Hedge: 

• Trump Tweets Mock Video Of Himself Pummeling "Fraud News CNN" In A Wrestling Match. (video)
• The Real Threat Of Artificial Intelligence - Keynesian Dystopia.
• China Sends Warships, Fighter Jets To Intercept US Destroyer In South China Sea.
• Abe "Plunges Into Crisis" After LDP Suffers "Historic Defeat" In Tokyo Elections, USDJPY Slides.
• Illinois Taxoholics Wear Down Rauner: Massive Tax Hikes In The Works.
• Germany Passes "Orwellian" Anti-Free-Speech "Facebook Law".

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 87.0 +.25 basis point.
• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.5 +1.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.98 +.01%.
• S&P 500 futures +.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.24%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (ISCA)/.32

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.9 in May.
• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 60.5 in May.
• Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -1.4% decline in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report, Australia Retail Sales report and the (F) June Sales Conference Call could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
• Week Ahead by TheStreet. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as yen weakness, oil gains,  and less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst offset technical selling, diminishing healthcare/tax reform hopes and more hawkish central bank commentary. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Merkel, Macron Pledge a United Europe as They Bid Kohl Farewell. European leaders paid tribute to Helmut Kohl, vowing to live up to the German’s unflagging efforts to work for European unity at a time when many voters across the continent have expressed their doubts. The life of the German chancellor, who oversaw his country’s 1990 reunification after the Cold War and helped forge Europe’s economic and monetary union, was celebrated Saturday in a rare memorial ceremony at the European Union Parliament in Strasbourg two weeks after his death at age 87.

• Weidmann Meets the People With Reassurances on ECB Policy Path. German savers critical of the European Central Bank’s ultra-loose monetary stance have received some words of reassurance from the head of their own monetary institution. Normalization will “hopefully happen, and that’s something we’re working on and discussing,” Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann told a public audience between live music and beer booths at the institution’s Frankfurt headquarters on Saturday. “We are coming out of the worst economic crisis in post-war history, and therefore expansive monetary policy is appropriate. We just shouldn’t hold onto this policy for longer than necessary.”

• Qatar Ready for Consequences of Blockade Showdown, Minister Says. The Qatari government, under a Saudi-led blockade of its air, sea and land links, is unwilling to concede any demands that threaten its sovereignty or violate international law, said Foreign Minister Mohammed Al Thani. The small Gulf emirate is prepared to let pass the deadline for complying with 13 demands set down by the bloc, including shutting the Al Jazeera television network and cutting back ties with Iran, he said Saturday in Rome, where he met with his Italian counterpart.

• Alphabet(GOOGL) Says EU Antitrust Fine to Cut Profit by $2.74 Billion. Alphabet Inc. said late Friday that the European Commission’s recent antitrust fine will reduce second-quarter profit by about $2.74 billion. The company plans to report the fine in a separate operating expense line on its income statement. It’s not tax deductible, so the charge will reduce Alphabet’s net income and earnings per share by the full $2.74 billion amount, it said in a statement.

• Macau Casino Revenue Misses Estimates Amid Tighter Rules. Casino revenue in Macau missed analyst estimates in June amid concerns of tightening regulation in the world’s biggest gaming hub. Gross gaming receipts in June rose 25.9 percent to 19.99 billion patacas ($2.49 billion), according to data released by Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau Saturday. That compares with the median estimate for a 30 percent increase in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts and follows a 24 percent jump in May.

• Einhorn’s Greenlight Fund Drops 2.3% in First Half.

• Are Trendy Robot Funds Making Suckers of Us All?

Wall Street Journal: 

• Insurers’ Policy Warnings Raise Stakes in Health Fight. Letters to some consumers say plans will be terminated at year-end.

• Weak Inflation Continues to Hold Down Bond Yields. Expectations of a fiscal stimulus have faded, boosting demand for Treasurys and driving down yields.

• Oil-Price Decline Looms as New Stock-Market Boogeyman. Collapse in crude prices could end bullish outlook for energy companies and remove boost to broader indexes.

• Seattle Aims at McDonald’s, Hits Workers. A $15 minimum wage changes the basic labor-market bargain between the fast-food industry and its workers.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BMY), (GLD) and (TXN).

• Had bearish commentary on (KHC).

Fox News: 

• Trump attacks media as 'fake' and 'fraudulent,' pushes back about his use of Twitter. (video)

• McConnell rejects Trump's advice to repeal ObamaCare now, replace later. (video)

CNBC: 

• Target(TGT) is preparing to roll out fresh apparel, home furnishing brands.

• China's Xi talks tough on Hong Kong as thousands protest for democracy.

Zero Hedge:

• "From Horrific To Catastrophic": Court Ruling Sends Illinois Into Financial Abyss.

• Hedge Fund Traders Return To Banking As Trump Promises To 'Make Prop Trading Great Again'.

• China Completes Construction Of New Missile Shelters On Disputed South China Sea Islands.

• 29 States Refuse To Give Data To Voter Fraud Panel, "What Are They Trying To Hide" Trump Asks.

• Trump Unloads In Angry Tweetstorm: Slams "Dumb As A Rock" Mika, "Garbage" CNN.

• America's Pension Bomb: Illinois Is Just the Start.

• It's Not Just Americans, Europe's New Obsession With Auto Leases Is "Catastrophic For Used Car Prices". (graph)

• Banks Begin To Mutiny Against The Fed: "If We Are Right, Central Banks Will Be Wrong".

• 25 House Democrats Back Bill To Impeach President Trump.

• Chris Christie Announces New Jersey Government Shutdown, Orders State Of Emergency.

• New York Times Forced To Retract Longstanding '17 Intel Agencies' Lie About Russian Hacking.

• "China Faces Its Comeuppance" - Kyle Bass Warns Of "Tectonic Shift" In US Relationship.

• Trump "Overrules" Cabinet, Prepares To Unleash Global Trade War.

• The World Is Now $217,000,000,000,000 In Debt And The Global Elite Like It That Way.

• Maine To Begin Shutdown After Gov. LePage Says He Won't Sign Budget Bill.

• Dakota Drought Sparks Biggest Spring Wheat Price Spike In 7 Years.

• Connecticut Gov. Signs Exec. Order Taking Over Spending After State Fails To Pass Budget.

• Weekend Reading: Want Some Volatility With That?

• June Gloom: Nasdaq Suffers Biggest Loss Since October As Dollar, Bonds, Economy Plunge. (graph)

Business Insider:

• 28 people were injured after a shooting at an Arkansas nightclub.